Global marine phytoplankton dynamics analysis with machine learning and reanalyzed remote sensing.

Phytoplankton are the world's largest oxygen producers found in oceans, seas and large water bodies, which play crucial roles in the marine food chain. Unbalanced biogeochemical features like salinity, pH, minerals, etc., can retard their growth. With advancements in better hardware, the usage of Artificial Intelligence techniques is rapidly increasing for creating an intelligent decision-making system. Therefore, we attempt to overcome this gap by using supervised regressions on reanalysis data targeting global phytoplankton levels in global waters. The presented experiment proposes the applications of different supervised machine learning regression techniques such as random forest, extra trees, bagging and histogram-based gradient boosting regressor on reanalysis data obtained from the Copernicus Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Hindcast dataset. Results obtained from the experiment have predicted the phytoplankton levels with a coefficient of determination score (R2) of up to 0.96. After further validation with larger datasets, the model can be deployed in a production environment in an attempt to complement in-situ measurement efforts.

Decision tree ensemble with Bayesian optimization to predict the spatial dynamics of chlorophyll-a concentration: A case study in Bay of Bengal.

An accurate prediction of the spatial distribution of phytoplankton biomass, as represented by Chlorophyll-a (CHL-a) concentrations, is important for assessing ecological conditions in the marine environment. This study developed a hyperparameter-optimized decision tree-based machine learning (ML) models to predict the geographical distribution of marine phytoplankton CHL-a in the Bay of Bengal. To predict CHL-a over a large spatial extent, satellite-derived remotely sensed data of ocean color features (CHL-a, colored dissolved organic matter, photosynthetically active radiation, particulate organic carbon) and climatic factors (nighttime sea surface temperature, surface absorbed longwave radiation, sea level pressure) from 2003 to 2022 are used to train and test the models. Results obtained from this study have shown the highest concentrations of CHL-a occurred near the Bay's coastal belts and river estuaries. Analysis revealed that aside from photosynthetically active radiation, organic components exhibited a stronger positive relationship with CHL-a than climatic features, which are correlated negatively. Results showed the chosen decision tree methods to all possess higher R2 and lower root mean square error (RMSE) errors. Furthermore, XGBoost outperforms all other models in predicting the geographic distribution of CHL-a. To assess the model efficacy on seasonal basis, a best performing XGBoost model was validated in the Bay of Bengal region which has shown a good performance in predicting the spatial distribution of Chl-a as well as the pixel values during the summer, winter and monsoon seasons. This study provides the best ML model to researchers for predicting CHL-a in the Bay of Bengal. Further it helps to improve our knowledge of CHL-a spatial dynamics and assist in monitoring marine resources in the Bay of Bengal. It worth noting that the water quality in the Indian Ocean is very dynamic in nature, therefore, additional efforts are needed to test the efficacy of this study model over different seasons and spatial gradients.

Assessing demographic and economic vulnerabilities to sea level rise in Bangladesh via a nighttime light-based cellular automata model.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report (AR6) forecasts a sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m by 2100, which poses significant risks to regional geomorphology. As a country with a rapidly developing economy and substantial population, Bangladesh confronts unique challenges due to its extensive floodplains and 720 km-long Bay of Bengal coastline. This study uses nighttime light data to investigate the demographic repercussions and potential disruptions to economic clusters arising from land inundation attributable to SLR in the Bay of Bengal. By using geographical information system (GIS)-based bathtub modeling, this research scrutinizes potential risk zones under three selected shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The analysis anticipates that between 0.8 and 2.8 thousand km2 of land may be inundated according to the present elevation profile, affecting 0.5-2.8 million people in Bangladesh by 2150. Moreover, artificial neural network (ANN)-based cellular automata modeling is used to determine economic clusters at risk from SLR impacts. These findings emphasize the urgency for land planners to incorporate modeling and sea inundation projections to tackle the inherent uncertainty in SLR estimations and devise effective coastal flooding mitigation strategies. This study provides valuable insights for policy development and long-term planning in coastal regions, especially for areas with a limited availability of relevant data.

Transformation of urban mobility during COVID-19 pandemic - Lessons for transportation planning.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is a global threat that started in Wuhan, China, in 2019 and spread rapidly to the globe. To reduce the spread of the COVID-19, different non-pharmacological control measures have been conducted in different countries, which include social distancing, distance working, and stay-at-home mandates. These control measures had affected global transportation and mobility significantly. This study investigated the short-term changes in urban mobility, tropospheric air pollution, and fuel consumption in two major cities of Saudi Arabia, namely, Riyadh and Jeddah. METHODS: In this study, the dynamics of the number of trips and trip purposes in different provinces of the country were analyzed, focusing on the pandemic period and the lockdown program. These changes impacted fuel consumption and, consequently, air pollutants. The quantity of fuel consumption and its trend was projected considering a few possible fuel consumption and emission scenarios. It is also expected that fuel price plays a role in fuel consumption. The spatial and temporal distributions of the remote sensed tropospheric Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) levels in different provinces were presented to depict the short 19 and long-term impact on the air quality due to the changes in mobility. RESULTS: The significant reduction in urban mobility has been observed since the beginning of the first partial curfew in March 2020 compared to that in 2019. The air pollutant levels (such as NO2) in 2020 after the pandemic were generally less than those of 2019. The fuel consumption has been following a decreasing trend in 2020 starting from January due to dynamic fuel price and the additional influence of pandemic. Based on the current online shopping pattern, it is argued that there will be some permanent behavioral changes in urban mobility, which will decrease some shopping trips at least immediately after the recovery from the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: This study concluded that the availability of global urban mobility data, remote sensed based tropospheric air pollution data, and global fuel consumption database are important sources of information to investigate the impact of COVID pandemic, especially for the developing countries which suffer from scarcity of pertinent urban mobility information. It seems that, at least in the study area, the spread of COVID-19 is a complex phenomenon in which several exogenous factors, in addition to the curfew protocols, affect the spread of the virus.

Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions-Positive or Negative?

The potential effects of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are uncertain, although numerous studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact. This paper aims to synthesize and review all the literature regarding the topic in a systematic manner to eliminate the bias and provide an overall insight, while incorporating some statistical analysis to provide an interval estimate of these studies. This paper addressed the effect of the positive and negative impacts reported in the literature in two categories of AVs: partial automation and full automation. The positive impacts represented in AVs' possibility to reduce GHG emission can be attributed to some factors, including eco-driving, eco traffic signal, platooning, and less hunting for parking. The increase in vehicle mile travel (VMT) due to (i) modal shift to AVs by captive passengers, including elderly and disabled people and (ii) easier travel compared to other modes will contribute to raising the GHG emissions. The result shows that eco-driving and platooning have the most significant contribution to reducing GHG emissions by 35%. On the other side, easier travel and faster travel significantly contribute to the increase of GHG emissions by 41.24%. Study findings reveal that the positive emission changes may not be realized at a lower AV penetration rate, where the maximum emission reduction might take place within 60-80% of AV penetration into the network.

Predicting Crash Injury Severity with Machine Learning Algorithm Synergized with Clustering Technique: A Promising Protocol.

Predicting crash injury severity is a crucial constituent of reducing the consequences of traffic crashes. This study developed machine learning (ML) models to predict crash injury severity using 15 crash-related parameters. Separate ML models for each cluster were obtained using fuzzy c-means, which enhanced the predicting capability. Finally, four ML models were developed: feed-forward neural networks (FNN), support vector machine (SVM), fuzzy C-means clustering based feed-forward neural network (FNN-FCM), and fuzzy c-means based support vector machine (SVM-FCM). Features that were easily identified with little investigation on crash sites were used as an input so that the trauma center can predict the crash severity level based on the initial information provided from the crash site and prepare accordingly for the treatment of the victims. The input parameters mainly include vehicle attributes and road condition attributes. This study used the crash database of Great Britain for the years 2011-2016. A random sample of crashes representing each year was used considering the same share of severe and non-severe crashes. The models were compared based on injury severity prediction accuracy, sensitivity, precision, and harmonic mean of sensitivity and precision (i.e., F1 score). The SVM-FCM model outperformed the other developed models in terms of accuracy and F1 score in predicting the injury severity level of severe and non-severe crashes. This study concluded that the FCM clustering algorithm enhanced the prediction power of FNN and SVM models.

Correction to: Renewable energy utilization to promote sustainability in GCC countries: policies, drivers, and barriers.

In the abstract, the statement "The GHG emissions avoidance expected to be achieved by the GCC countries will vary between 5 and 247 million tons of CO equivalent by 2030."

Renewable energy utilization to promote sustainability in GCC countries: policies, drivers, and barriers.

There is a growing focus on the role of renewable energy (RE) policies such as feed-in tariffs (FITs), renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), subsidies, incentives, and research and development in the global energy policy mix and in promoting environmental sustainability. Although most developed countries have well-formulated RE policies, in developing countries, such policies face many barriers. This study analyzes the policies, drivers, and barriers to RE deployment for fostering environmental sustainability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. In the GCC region, the need for economic diversification to reduce dependency on single resource, diminishing hydrocarbon reserve, loss of oil export revenue, climate change mitigation pledges, and abundant solar energy resource are the key drivers for diversifying energy sources to include RE. However, the apparent lack of consolidated policy framework for wide-scale RE utilization calls for a well-articulated policy to advance RE development in each member state. Although FIT and RPS approaches could be effective for initial deployment of small-scale RE projects, a competitive tendering and auctioning mechanisms are more suitable for large-scale projects. Whereas, developing effective energy codes could successfully promote RE deployment, the increased share of RE in energy supply would have synergistic impacts on the region. The GHG emissions avoidance expected to be achieved by the GCC countries will vary between 5 and 247 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030. The fulfillment of inspirational RE targets for 2030 would contribute in fulfilling climate change mitigation pledges, environmental sustainability, economic growth, and generating new jobs.

Ozone levels in the Empty Quarter of Saudi Arabia--application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy model.

In arid regions, primary pollutants may contribute to the increase of ozone levels and cause negative effects on biotic health. This study investigates the use of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for ozone prediction. The initial fuzzy inference system is developed by using fuzzy C-means (FCM) and subtractive clustering (SC) algorithms, which determines the important rules, increases generalization capability of the fuzzy inference system, reduces computational needs, and ensures speedy model development. The study area is located in the Empty Quarter of Saudi Arabia, which is considered as a source of huge potential for oil and gas field development. The developed clustering algorithm-based ANFIS model used meteorological data and derived meteorological data, along with NO and NO2 concentrations and their transformations, as inputs. The root mean square error and Willmott's index of agreement of the FCM- and SC-based ANFIS models are 3.5 ppbv and 0.99, and 8.9 ppbv and 0.95, respectively. Based on the analysis of the performance measures and regression error characteristic curves, it is concluded that the FCM-based ANFIS model outperforms the SC-based ANFIS model.