Predictive models of surgical site infections after coronary surgery: insights from a validation study on 7090 consecutive patients.

BACKGROUND: The role of specific scoring systems in predicting risk of surgical site infections (SSIs) after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) has not been established. AIM: To validate the most relevant predictive systems for SSIs after CABG. METHODS: Five predictive systems (eight models) for SSIs after CABG were evaluated retrospectively in 7090 consecutive patients undergoing isolated (73.9%) or combined (26.1%) CABG. For each model, accuracy of prediction, calibration, and predictive power were assessed with area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (aROC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the Goodman-Kruskal γ-coefficient, respectively. Six predictive scoring systems for 30-day in-hospital mortality after cardiac operations were evaluated as to prediction of SSIs. The models were compared one-to-one using the Hanley-McNeil method. FINDINGS: There were 724 (10.2%) SSIs. Whereas all models showed satisfactory calibration (P = 0.176-0.656), accuracy of prediction was low (aROC: 0.609-0.650). Predictive power was moderate (γ: 0.315-0.386) for every model but one (γ: 0.272). When compared one-to-one, the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group mediastinitis score had a higher discriminatory power both in overall series (aROC: 0.634) and combined CABG patients (aROC: 0.648); in isolated CABG patients, both models of the Fowler score showed a higher discriminatory power (aROC: 0.651 and 0.660). Accuracy of prediction for SSIs was low (aROC: 0.564-0.636) even for six scoring systems devised to predict mortality after cardiac surgery. CONCLUSION: In this validation study, current predictive models for SSIs after CABG showed low accuracy of prediction despite satisfactory calibration and moderate predictive power.

Predictors of gastrointestinal complications after conventional and beating heart coronary surgery.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal complications after cardiac surgery remain a significant problem despite improvements in pre-operative, operative and post-operative care. The pathophysiology is uncertain, and their prevention remains suboptimal. This prospective, randomised study was designed to define the role of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and cardioplegic arrest in the pathogenesis of gastrointestinal complications following coronary artery surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Three hundred patients were prospectively randomised to (1) on-pump conventional coronary artery surgery [150 patients, 114 men, mean age 64 (45-75 years)] with mild hypothermic (32c) CPB and cardioplegic arrest of the heart or (2) off-pump surgery [150 patients, 113 men, mean age 64 (38-66) years] on the beating heart. The association of perioperative factors with gastrointestinal complications was investigated by univariate analysis. Significant variables were then included into a stepwise logistic regression model to ascertain their independent influence on the occurrence of gastrointestinal complications. There were no significant baseline differences between the groups. Eleven patients in the on-pump group and one patient in the off-pump group had post-operative gastrointestinal complications. Univariate analysis showed that CPB inclusive of cardioplegic arrest, left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, emergency surgery, prolonged aortic cross clamp and CPB time, post-operative low cardiac output syndrome, post-operative inotropic requirement, new onset atrial fibrillation (AF), excessive post-operative blood loss and redo thoracotomy <24 hours were predictors of gastrointestinal complications after coronary artery surgery (all p<0.05). However, stepwise multivariate regression analysis identified CPB inclusive of cardioplegic arrest as the only predictor of post-operative gastrointestinal complications (OR7.4; CI 3.4-17.9). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiopulmonary bypass, inclusive of cardioplegic arrest, is the main independent predictor of post-operative gastrointestinal complications in patients undergoing coronary revascularisation.