Predicting tumor recurrence on baseline MR imaging in patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma using deep machine learning.

Tumor recurrence affects up to 70% of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, depending on treatment option. Deep learning algorithms allow in-depth exploration of imaging data to discover imaging features that may be predictive of recurrence. This study explored the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to predict HCC recurrence in patients with early-stage HCC from pre-treatment magnetic resonance (MR) images. This retrospective study included 120 patients with early-stage HCC. Pre-treatment MR images were fed into a machine learning pipeline (VGG16 and XGBoost) to predict recurrence within six different time frames (range 1-6 years). Model performance was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROC). After prediction, the model's clinical relevance was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis with recurrence-free survival (RFS) as the endpoint. Of 120 patients, 44 had disease recurrence after therapy. Six different models performed with AUC values between 0.71 to 0.85. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, five of six models obtained statistical significance when predicting RFS (log-rank p < 0.05). Our proof-of-concept study indicates that deep learning algorithms can be utilized to predict early-stage HCC recurrence. Successful identification of high-risk recurrence candidates may help optimize follow-up imaging and improve long-term outcomes post-treatment.

Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Posttreatment Recurrence in Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using Pretreatment Clinical and MRI Features: A Proof-of-Concept Study.

BACKGROUND. Posttreatment recurrence is an unpredictable complication after liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that is associated with poor survival. Biomarkers are needed to estimate recurrence risk before organ allocation. OBJECTIVE. This proof-of-concept study evaluated the use of machine learning (ML) to predict recurrence from pretreatment laboratory, clinical, and MRI data in patients with early-stage HCC initially eligible for liver transplant. METHODS. This retrospective study included 120 patients (88 men, 32 women; median age, 60.0 years) with early-stage HCC diagnosed who were initially eligible for liver transplant and underwent treatment by transplant, resection, or thermal ablation between June 2005 and March 2018. Patients underwent pretreatment MRI and posttreatment imaging surveillance. Imaging features were extracted from postcontrast phases of pretreatment MRI examinations using a pretrained convolutional neural network. Pretreatment clinical characteristics (including laboratory data) and extracted imaging features were integrated to develop three ML models (clinical model, imaging model, combined model) for predicting recurrence within six time frames ranging from 1 through 6 years after treatment. Kaplan-Meier analysis with time to recurrence as the endpoint was used to assess the clinical relevance of model predictions. RESULTS. Tumor recurred in 44 of 120 (36.7%) patients during follow-up. The three models predicted recurrence with AUCs across the six time frames of 0.60-0.78 (clinical model), 0.71-0.85 (imaging model), and 0.62-0.86 (combined model). The mean AUC was higher for the imaging model than the clinical model (0.76 vs 0.68, respectively; p = .03), but the mean AUC was not significantly different between the clinical and combined models or between the imaging and combined models (p > .05). Kaplan-Meier curves were significantly different between patients predicted to be at low risk and those predicted to be at high risk by all three models for the 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-year time frames (p < .05). CONCLUSION. The findings suggest that ML-based models can predict recurrence before therapy allocation in patients with early-stage HCC initially eligible for liver transplant. Adding MRI data as model input improved predictive performance over clinical parameters alone. The combined model did not surpass the imaging model's performance. CLINICAL IMPACT. ML-based models applied to currently underutilized imaging features may help design more reliable criteria for organ allocation and liver transplant eligibility.

Quantitative Automated Segmentation of Lipiodol Deposits on Cone-Beam CT Imaging Acquired during Transarterial Chemoembolization for Liver Tumors: A Deep Learning Approach.

PURPOSE: To show that a deep learning (DL)-based, automated model for Lipiodol (Guerbet Pharmaceuticals, Paris, France) segmentation on cone-beam computed tomography (CT) after conventional transarterial chemoembolization performs closer to the "ground truth segmentation" than a conventional thresholding-based model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This post hoc analysis included 36 patients with a diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma or other solid liver tumors who underwent conventional transarterial chemoembolization with an intraprocedural cone-beam CT. Semiautomatic segmentation of Lipiodol was obtained. Subsequently, a convolutional U-net model was used to output a binary mask that predicted Lipiodol deposition. A threshold value of signal intensity on cone-beam CT was used to obtain a Lipiodol mask for comparison. The dice similarity coefficient (DSC), mean squared error (MSE), center of mass (CM), and fractional volume ratios for both masks were obtained by comparing them to the ground truth (radiologist-segmented Lipiodol deposits) to obtain accuracy metrics for the 2 masks. These results were used to compare the model versus the threshold technique. RESULTS: For all metrics, the U-net outperformed the threshold technique: DSC (0.65 ± 0.17 vs 0.45 ± 0.22, P < .001) and MSE (125.53 ± 107.36 vs 185.98 ± 93.82, P = .005). The difference between the CM predicted and the actual CM was 15.31 mm ± 14.63 versus 31.34 mm ± 30.24 (P < .001), with lesser distance indicating higher accuracy. The fraction of volume present ([predicted Lipiodol volume]/[ground truth Lipiodol volume]) was 1.22 ± 0.84 versus 2.58 ± 3.52 (P = .048) for the current model's prediction and threshold technique, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that a DL framework could detect Lipiodol in cone-beam CT imaging and was capable of outperforming the conventionally used thresholding technique over several metrics. Further optimization will allow for more accurate, quantitative predictions of Lipiodol depositions intraprocedurally.

Thermal ablation alone vs thermal ablation combined with transarterial chemoembolization for patients with small (<3 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Thermal ablation (TA) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) may be used alone or in combination (TACE+TA) for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of our study was to compare the time to tumor progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS) for patients who received TA alone or TACE+TA for HCC tumors under 3 cm. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This HIPAA-compliant IRB-approved retrospective analysis included 85 therapy-naïve patients from 2010 to 2018 (63 males, 22 females, mean age 62.4 ± 8.5 years) who underwent either TA alone (n = 64) or TA in combination with drug-eluting beads (DEB)-TACE (n = 18) or Lipiodol-TACE (n = 3) for locoregional therapy of early stage HCC with maximum tumor diameter under 3 cm. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed using the log-rank test to assess TTP and OS. RESULTS: All TA and TACE+TA treatments included were technically successful. TTP was 23.0 months in the TA group and 22.0 months in the TACE+TA group. There was no statistically significant difference in TTP (p = 0.64). Median OS was 69.7 months in the TA group and 64.6 months in the TACE+TA group. There was no statistically significant difference in OS (p = 0.14). The treatment cohorts had differences in AFP levels (p = 0.03) and BCLC stage (p = 0.047). Complication rates between patient groups were similar (p = 0.61). CONCLUSION: For patients with HCC under 3 cm, TA alone and TACE+TA have similar outcomes in terms of TTP and OS, suggesting that TACE+TA may not be needed for these tumors unless warranted by tumor location or other technical consideration.