Quantifying individual variation in reaction norms: Mind the residual.

Phenotypic plasticity is a central topic in ecology and evolution. Individuals may differ in the degree of plasticity (individual-by-environment interaction (I × E)), which has implications for the capacity of populations to respond to selection. Random regression models (RRMs) are a popular tool to study I × E in behavioural or life-history traits, yet evidence for I × E is mixed, differing between species, populations, and even between studies on the same population. One important source of discrepancies between studies is the treatment of heterogeneity in residual variance (heteroscedasticity). To date, there seems to be no collective awareness among ecologists of its influence on the estimation of I × E or a consensus on how to best model it. We performed RRMs with differing residual variance structures on simulated data with varying degrees of heteroscedasticity and plasticity, sample size and environmental variability to test how RRMs would perform under each scenario. The residual structure in the RRMs affected the precision of estimates of simulated I × E as well as statistical power, with substantial lack of precision and high false-positive rates when sample size, environmental variability and plasticity were small. We show that model comparison using information criteria can be used to choose among residual structures and reinforce this point by analysis of real data of two study populations of great tits (Parus major). We provide guidelines that can be used by biologists studying I × E that, ultimately, should lead to a reduction in bias in the literature concerning the statistical evidence and the reported magnitude of variation in plasticity.

Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator-prey interaction: Simpler works better.

Global climate change has sparked a vast research effort into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of mismatches between consumer and resource phenology. Many studies have used the difference in peak dates to quantify phenological synchrony (match in dates, MD), but this approach has been suggested to be inconclusive, since it does not incorporate the temporal overlap between the phenological distributions (match in overlap, MO). We used 24 years of detailed data on the phenology of a predator-prey system, the great tit (Parus major) and the main food for its nestlings, caterpillars, to estimate MD and MO at the population and brood levels. We compared the performance of both metrics on two key demographic parameters: offspring recruitment probability and selection on the timing of reproduction. Although MD and MO correlated quadratically as expected, MD was a better predictor for both offspring recruitment and selection on timing than MO. We argue-and verify through simulations-that this is because quantifying MO has to be based on nontrivial, difficult-to-verify assumptions that likely render MO too inaccurate as a proxy for food availability in practice. Our results have important implications for the allocation of research efforts in long-term population studies in highly seasonal environments.

Phenological mismatch drives selection on elevation, but not on slope, of breeding time plasticity in a wild songbird.

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to respond to fluctuating environments, yet may be insufficient to adapt to a directionally changing environment. To study whether plasticity can evolve under current climate change, we quantified selection and genetic variation in both the elevation (RNE ) and slope (RNS ) of the breeding time reaction norm in a long-term (1973-2016) study population of great tits (Parus major). The optimal RNE (the caterpillar biomass peak date regressed against the temperature used as cue by great tits) changed over time, whereas the optimal RNS did not. Concordantly, we found strong directional selection on RNE , but not RNS , of egg-laying date in the second third of the study period; this selection subsequently waned, potentially due to increased between-year variability in optimal laying dates. We found individual and additive genetic variation in RNE but, contrary to previous studies on our population, not in RNS . The predicted and observed evolutionary change in RNE was, however, marginal, due to low heritability and the sex limitation of laying date. We conclude that adaptation to climate change can only occur via micro-evolution of RNE, but this will necessarily be slow and potentially hampered by increased variability in phenotypic optima.

Environmental coupling of heritability and selection is rare and of minor evolutionary significance in wild populations.

Predicting the rate of adaptation to environmental change in wild populations is important for understanding evolutionary change. However, predictions may be unreliable if the two key variables affecting the rate of evolutionary change-heritability and selection-are both affected by the same environmental variable. To determine how general such an environmentally induced coupling of heritability and selection is, and how this may influence the rate of adaptation, we made use of freely accessible, open data on pedigreed wild populations to answer this question at the broadest possible scale. Using 16 populations from 10 vertebrate species, which provided data on 50 traits (relating to body mass, morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history), we found evidence for an environmentally induced relationship between heritability and selection in only 6 cases, with weak evidence that this resulted in an increase or decrease in the expected selection response. We conclude that such a coupling of heritability and selection is unlikely to strongly affect evolutionary change, even though both heritability and selection are commonly postulated to be dependent on the environment.

No effect of artificial light of different colors on commuting Daubenton's bats (Myotis daubentonii) in a choice experiment.

Progressive illumination at night poses an increasing threat to species worldwide. Light at night is particularly problematic for bats as most species are nocturnal and often cross relatively large distances when commuting between roosts and foraging grounds. Earlier studies have shown that illumination of linear structures in the landscape disturbs commuting bats, and that the response of bats to light may strongly depend on the light spectrum. Here, we studied the impact of white, green, and red light on commuting Daubenton's bats (Myotis daubentonii). We used a unique location where commuting bats cross a road by flying through two identical, parallel culverts underneath. We illuminated the culverts with white, red, and green light, with an intensity of 5 lux at the water surface. Bats had to choose between the two culverts, each with a different lighting condition every night. We presented all paired combinations of white, green, and red light and dark control in a factorial design. Contrary to our expectations, the number of bat passes through a culvert was unaffected by the presence of light. Furthermore, bats did not show any preference for light color. These results show that the response of commuting Daubenton's bats to different colors of light at night with a realistic intensity may be limited when passing through culverts.

Maternal Effects in a Wild Songbird Are Environmentally Plastic but Only Marginally Alter the Rate of Adaptation.

Despite ample evidence for the presence of maternal effects (MEs) in a variety of traits and strong theoretical indications for their evolutionary consequences, empirical evidence to what extent MEs can influence evolutionary responses to selection remains ambiguous. We tested the degree to which MEs can alter the rate of adaptation of a key life-history trait, clutch size, using an individual-based model approach parameterized with experimental data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We modeled two types of MEs: (i) an environmentally plastic ME, in which the relationship between maternal and offspring clutch size depended on the maternal environment via offspring condition, and (ii) a fixed ME, in which this relationship was constant. Although both types of ME affected the rate of adaptation following an abrupt environmental shift, the overall effects were small. We conclude that evolutionary consequences of MEs are modest at best in our study system, at least for the trait and the particular type of ME we considered here. A closer link between theoretical and empirical work on MEs would hence be useful to obtain accurate predictions about the evolutionary consequences of MEs more generally.

Response of bats to light with different spectra: light-shy and agile bat presence is affected by white and green, but not red light.

Artificial light at night has shown a remarkable increase over the past decades. Effects are reported for many species groups, and include changes in presence, behaviour, physiology and life-history traits. Among these, bats are strongly affected, and how bat species react to light is likely to vary with light colour. Different spectra may therefore be applied to reduce negative impacts. We used a unique set-up of eight field sites to study the response of bats to three different experimental light spectra in an otherwise dark and undisturbed natural habitat. We measured activity of three bat species groups around transects with light posts emitting white, green and red light with an intensity commonly used to illuminate countryside roads. The results reveal a strong and spectrum-dependent response for the slow-flying Myotis and Plecotus and more agile Pipistrellus species, but not for Nyctalus and Eptesicus species. Plecotus and Myotis species avoided white and green light, but were equally abundant in red light and darkness. The agile, opportunistically feeding Pipistrellus species were significantly more abundant around white and green light, most likely because of accumulation of insects, but equally abundant in red illuminated transects compared to dark control. Forest-dwelling Myotis and Plecotus species and more synanthropic Pipistrellus species are thus least disturbed by red light. Hence, in order to limit the negative impact of light at night on bats, white and green light should be avoided in or close to natural habitat, but red lights may be used if illumination is needed.