The impact of healthcare systems on the clinical diagnosis and disease-modifying treatment usage in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis: a real-world perspective in five registries across Europe.

Introduction: Prescribing guidance for disease-modifying treatment (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is centred on a clinical diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). DMT prescription guidelines and monitoring vary across countries. Standardising the approach to diagnosis of disease course, for example, assigning RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS) diagnoses, allows examination of the impact of health system characteristics on the stated clinical diagnosis and treatment access. Methods: We analysed registry data from six cohorts in five countries (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and United Kingdom) on patients with an initial diagnosis of RRMS. We standardised our approach utilising a pre-existing algorithm (DecisionTree, DT) to determine patient diagnoses of RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS). We identified five global drivers of DMT prescribing: Provision, Availability, Funding, Monitoring and Audit, data were analysed against these concepts using meta-analysis and univariate meta-regression. Results: In 64,235 patients, we found variations in DMT use between countries, with higher usage in RRMS and lower usage in SPMS, with correspondingly lower usage in the UK compared to other registers. Factors such as female gender (p = 0.041), increasing disability via Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score (p = 0.004), and the presence of monitoring (p = 0.029) in SPMS influenced the likelihood of receiving DMTs. Standardising the diagnosis revealed differences in reclassification rates from clinical RRMS to DT-SPMS, with Sweden having the lowest rate Sweden (Sweden 0.009, range: Denmark 0.103 - UK portal 0.311). Those with higher EDSS at index (p < 0.03) and female gender (p < 0.049) were more likely to be reclassified from RRMS to DT-SPMS. The study also explored the impact of diagnosis on DMT usage in clinical SPMS, finding that the prescribing environment and auditing practices affected access to treatment. Discussion: This highlights the importance of a healthcare system's approach to verifying the clinical label of MS course in facilitating appropriate prescribing, with some flexibility allowed in uncertain cases to ensure continued access to treatment.

The familial risk and heritability of multiple sclerosis and its onset phenotypes: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The two main phenotypes of multiple sclerosis (MS), primary progressive (PPMS) and relapsing Onset (ROMS), show clinical and demographic differences suggesting possible differential risk mechanisms. Understanding the heritable features of these phenotypes could provide aetiological insight. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the magnitude of familial components in PPMS and ROMS and to estimate the heritability of disease phenotypes. METHODS: We used data from 25,186 MS patients of Nordic ancestry from the Swedish MS Registry between 1987 and 2019 with known disease phenotype (1593 PPMS and 16,718 ROMS) and 251,881 matched population-based controls and 3,364,646 relatives of cases and controls. Heritability was calculated using threshold-liability models. For familial odds ratios (ORs), logistic regression with robust sandwich estimator was utilized. RESULTS: The OR of MS diagnosis in those with a first-degree family member with ROMS was 7.00 and 8.06 in those with PPMS. The corresponding ORs for having a second-degree family member with ROMS was 2.16 and 2.18 in PPMS. The additive genetic effect in ROMS was 0.54 and 0.22 in PPMS. CONCLUSION: Risk of MS increases by several folds in those with a relative with MS. The likelihood of developing either disease phenotype appears independent of genetic predisposition.

Proportion and characteristics of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in five European registries using objective classifiers.

Background: To assign a course of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) (SPMS) may be difficult and the proportion of persons with SPMS varies between reports. An objective method for disease course classification may give a better estimation of the relative proportions of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and SPMS and may identify situations where SPMS is under reported. Materials and methods: Data were obtained for 61,900 MS patients from MS registries in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (UK), including date of birth, sex, SP conversion year, visits with an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, MS onset and diagnosis date, relapses, and disease-modifying treatment (DMT) use. We included RRMS or SPMS patients with at least one visit between January 2017 and December 2019 if ≥ 18 years of age. We applied three objective methods: A set of SPMS clinical trial inclusion criteria ("EXPAND criteria") modified for a real-world evidence setting, a modified version of the MSBase algorithm, and a decision tree-based algorithm recently published. Results: The clinically assigned proportion of SPMS varied from 8.7% (Czechia) to 34.3% (UK). Objective classifiers estimated the proportion of SPMS from 15.1% (Germany by the EXPAND criteria) to 58.0% (UK by the decision tree method). Due to different requirements of number of EDSS scores, classifiers varied in the proportion they were able to classify; from 18% (UK by the MSBase algorithm) to 100% (the decision tree algorithm for all registries). Objectively classified SPMS patients were older, converted to SPMS later, had higher EDSS at index date and higher EDSS at conversion. More objectively classified SPMS were on DMTs compared to the clinically assigned. Conclusion: SPMS appears to be systematically underdiagnosed in MS registries. Reclassified patients were more commonly on DMTs.

Short report: Real-life analysis of the occurrence of persistent, transient, and fluctuating positive titres of neutralizing anti-drug antibodies in multiple sclerosis patients treated with interferon beta.

Interferon beta (IFNß) is a first line therapy for treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, up to 47% of treated patients will develop neutralizing anti-drug antibodies (NAbs) against IFNß, which at high titres can inhibit the therapeutic effect of the drug. This study aimed to determine the frequency of transient and fluctuating NAb positivity in a real-world clinical routine setting using a large retrospective international cohort of IFNß-treated MS patients collected as a part of the ABIRISK consortium (n = 9657). Transient and fluctuating NAbs were rare (2.6% and 0.9%, respectively), but bring noteworthy considerations about clinical decisions in context of NAbs.

A multiple sclerosis disease progression measure based on cumulative disability.

BACKGROUND: Existing severity measurements in multiple sclerosis (MS) are often cross-sectional, making longitudinal comparisons of disease course between individuals difficult. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to create a severity metric that can reliably summarize a patient's disease course. METHODS: We developed the nARMSS - normalized ARMSS (age-related MS severity score) over follow-up, using the deviation of individual ARMSS scores from the expected value and integrated over the corresponding time period. The nARMSS scales from -5 to +5; a positive value indicates a more severe disease course for a patient when compared to other patients with similar disease timings. RESULTS: Using Swedish MS registry data, the nARMSS was tested using data at 2 and 4 years of follow-up to predict the most severe quartile during the subsequent period up to 10 years total follow-up. The metric used was area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC). This resulted in measurements of 0.929 and 0.941. In an external Canadian validation cohort, the equivalent AUC-ROCs were 0.901 and 0.908. CONCLUSION: The nARMSS provides a reliable, generalizable and easily measurable metric which makes longitudinal comparison of disease course between individuals feasible.

Accurate classification of secondary progression in multiple sclerosis using a decision tree.

BACKGROUND: The absence of reliable imaging or biological markers of phenotype transition in multiple sclerosis (MS) makes assignment of current phenotype status difficult. OBJECTIVE: The authors sought to determine whether clinical information can be used to accurately assign current disease phenotypes. METHODS: Data from the clinical visits of 14,387 MS patients in Sweden were collected. Classifying algorithms based on several demographic and clinical factors were examined. Results obtained from the best classifier when predicting neurologist recorded disease classification were replicated in an independent cohort from British Columbia and were compared to a previously published algorithm and clinical judgment of three neurologists. RESULTS: A decision tree (the classifier) containing only most recently available expanded disability scale status score and age obtained 89.3% (95% confidence intervals (CIs): 88.8-89.8) classification accuracy, defined as concordance with the latest reported status. Validation in the independent cohort resulted in 82.0% (95% CI: 81.0-83.1) accuracy. A previously published classification algorithm with slight modifications achieved 77.8% (95% CI: 77.1-78.4) accuracy. With complete patient history of 100 patients, three neurologists obtained 84.3% accuracy compared with 85% for the classifier using the same data. CONCLUSION: The classifier can be used to standardize definitions of disease phenotype across different cohorts. Clinically, this model could assist neurologists by providing additional information.

A topological data analysis based classification method for multiple measurements.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning models for repeated measurements are limited. Using topological data analysis (TDA), we present a classifier for repeated measurements which samples from the data space and builds a network graph based on the data topology. A machine learning model with cross-validation is then applied for classification. When test this on three case studies, accuracy exceeds an alternative support vector machine (SVM) voting model in most situations tested, with additional benefits such as reporting data subsets with high purity along with feature values. RESULTS: For 100 examples of 3 different tree species, the model reached 80% classification accuracy after 30 datapoints, which was improved to 90% after increased sampling to 400 datapoints. The alternative SVM classifier achieved a maximum accuracy of 68.7%. Using data from 100 examples from each class of 6 different random point processes, the classifier achieved 96.8% accuracy, vastly outperforming the SVM. Using two outcomes in neuron spiking data, the TDA classifier was similarly accurate to the SVM in one case (both converged to 97.8% accuracy), but was outperformed in the other (relative accuracies 79.8% and 92.2%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This algorithm and software can be beneficial for repeated measurement data common in biological sciences, as both an accurate classifier and a feature selection tool.

Factors associated with and long-term outcome of benign multiple sclerosis: a nationwide cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Benign multiple sclerosis (BMS) is often defined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of ≤3.0 after ≥15 years of disease duration. This classification's clinical relevance remains unclear as benign patients may suffer other impairments and advance towards a progressive course, prompting our objective to holistically investigate factors associated with BMS and its long-term prognosis. METHODS: Benign cases were identified in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis registry. Baseline clinical data, demographic features and influence of multiple sclerosis (MS) major risk alleles on likelihood of benign course were investigated. Physical disability (EDSS), cognitive function (Symbol Digit Modalities Test; SDMT) and self-reported and socioeconomic differences between benign and non-benign patients were evaluated using generalised estimation equations models. RESULTS: 11222 patients (2420 benign/8802 non-benign) were included. Benign patients were more likely to be female and younger at MS onset, have fewer relapses within the first two and 5 years from onset and fully recover from the first relapse (p<0.001). No association between human leucocyte antigen (HLA) DRB1*15:01 carriership (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.09) or HLA-A*02:01 lacking (OR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.87 to 1.11) and benign/non-benign was found. Non-benign patients accumulated an extra 0.04 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.04, p<0.001) EDSS score/year, lost an extra 0.3 (95% CI - 0.39 to - 0.18, p<0.001) SDMT score/year and deteriorated faster in self-reported impact and socioeconomic measures (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Patients with BMS have a better disease course as they progress more slowly at the group level in all respects. Lack of an association with major genetic risk factors indicates that MS course is most likely influenced by either environmental factor(s) or genetic factors outside the HLA region.

Detection and kinetics of persistent neutralizing anti-interferon-beta antibodies in patients with multiple sclerosis. Results from the ABIRISK prospective cohort study.

Two validated assays, a bridging ELISA and a luciferase-based bioassay, were compared for detection of anti-drug antibodies (ADA) against interferon-beta (IFN-ß) in patients with multiple sclerosis. Serum samples were tested from patients enrolled in a prospective study of 18 months. In contrast to the ELISA, when IFN-ß-specific rabbit polyclonal and human monoclonal antibodies were tested, the bioassay was the more sensitive to detect IFN-ß ADA in patients' sera. For clinical samples, selection of method of ELISA should be evaluated prior to the use of a multi-tiered approach. A titer threshold value is reported that may be used as a predictor for persistently positive neutralizing ADA.

Association of Pre-Disease Body Mass Index With Multiple Sclerosis Prognosis.

Both high body mass index (BMI) and smoking tobacco are known risk factors for developing multiple sclerosis (MS). However, it is unclear whether BMI, like smoking, is a risk factor for the secondary progressive (SP) course. We, therefore, sought to determine if high/low BMI at age 20 is associated to risk of SP development, in the context of smoking status. Using data from MS patients with BMI and smoking information available, we examined relapsing onset patients with MS onset after 20 years of age. Cox regressions were conducted on smokers and non-smokers, with BMI as the main exposure. In total, 5,598 relapsing onset MS patients were included. The models demonstrated that BMI > 30 was associated to increased risk of SPMS in smokers (hazard ratio 1.50, p = 0.036). This association of obesity at age 20 with increased risk of SP was not observed in non-smokers (hazard rate 0.97, p = 0.900). Since the risk is confined to smokers, the interaction observed may give insight to disease driving mechanisms.

Age Related Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score: Disability ranked by age.

BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) is obtained by normalising the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score for disease duration and has been a valuable tool in cross-sectional studies. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether use of age rather than the inherently ambiguous disease duration was a feasible approach. METHOD: We pooled disability data from three population-based cohorts and developed an Age Related Multiple Sclerosis Severity (ARMSS) score by ranking EDSS scores based on the patient's age at the time of assessment. We established the power to detect a difference between groups afforded by the ARMSS score and assessed its relative consistency over time. RESULTS: The study population included 26058 patients from Sweden ( n = 11846), Canada ( n = 6179) and the United Kingdom ( n = 8033). There was a moderate correlation between EDSS and disease duration ( r = 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.45-0.47) and between EDSS and age ( r = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.43-0.45). The ARMSS scores showed comparable power to detect disability differences between groups to the updated and original MSSS. CONCLUSION: Since age is typically unbiased and readily obtained, and the ARMSS and MSSS were comparable, the ARMSS may provide a more versatile tool and could minimise study biases and loss of statistical power caused by inaccurate or missing onset dates.

Clinical practice of analysis of anti-drug antibodies against interferon beta and natalizumab in multiple sclerosis patients in Europe: A descriptive study of test results.

Antibodies against biopharmaceuticals (anti-drug antibodies, ADA) have been a well-integrated part of the clinical care of multiple sclerosis (MS) in several European countries. ADA data generated in Europe during the more than 10 years of ADA monitoring in MS patients treated with interferon beta (IFNß) and natalizumab have been pooled and characterized through collaboration within a European consortium. The aim of this study was to report on the clinical practice of ADA testing in Europe, considering the number of ADA tests performed and type of ADA assays used, and to determine the frequency of ADA testing against the different drug preparations in different countries. A common database platform (tranSMART) for querying, analyzing and storing retrospective data of MS cohorts was set up to harmonize the data and compare results of ADA tests between different countries. Retrospective data from six countries (Sweden, Austria, Spain, Switzerland, Germany and Denmark) on 20,695 patients and on 42,555 samples were loaded into tranSMART including data points of age, gender, treatment, samples, and ADA results. The previously observed immunogenic difference among the four IFNß preparations was confirmed in this large dataset. Decreased usage of the more immunogenic preparations IFNß-1a subcutaneous (s.c.) and IFNß-1b s.c. in favor of the least immunogenic preparation IFNß-1a intramuscular (i.m.) was observed. The median time from treatment start to first ADA test correlated with time to first positive test. Shorter times were observed for IFNß-1b-Extavia s.c. (0.99 and 0.94 years) and natalizumab (0.25 and 0.23 years), which were introduced on the market when ADA testing was already available, as compared to IFNß-1a i.m. (1.41 and 2.27 years), IFNß-1b-Betaferon s.c. (2.51 and 1.96 years) and IFNß-1a s.c. (2.11 and 2.09 years) which were available years before routine testing began. A higher rate of anti-IFNß ADA was observed in test samples taken from older patients. Testing for ADA varies between different European countries and is highly dependent on the policy within each country. For drugs where routine monitoring of ADA is not in place, there is a risk that some patients remain on treatment for several years despite ADA positivity. For drugs where a strategy of ADA testing is introduced with the release of the drug, there is a reduced risk of having ADA positive patients and thus of less efficient treatment. This indicates that potential savings in health cost might be achieved by routine analysis of ADA.

Importance of early treatment initiation in the clinical course of multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify factors influencing the long-term clinical progression of multiple sclerosis (MS). A special objective was to investigate whether early treatment decisions influence outcome. METHODS: We included 639 patients diagnosed with MS from 2001 to 2007. The median follow-up time was 99 months (8.25 years). Cox regression models were applied to identify factors correlating with the outcome variable defined as time from treatment start to irreversible score 4 of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). RESULTS: Patients initiated on treatment later had a greater risk of reaching EDSS 4 (hazard ratio of 1.074 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.048-1.101)), increased by 7.4% for every year of delay in treatment start after MS onset. Patients who started treatment after 3 years from MS onset reached the outcome sooner with hazard ratio of 2.64 (95% CI, 1.71-4.08) compared with the patients who started treatment within 1 year from MS onset. Baseline EDSS and age at onset were found to be predictive factors of disability progression. CONCLUSION: Early treatment initiation was associated with a better clinical outcome. In addition, we confirmed the well-established prognostic factors of late age at onset and early disability.

Occurrence of Anti-Drug Antibodies against Interferon-Beta and Natalizumab in Multiple Sclerosis: A Collaborative Cohort Analysis.

Immunogenicity of biopharmaceutical products in multiple sclerosis is a frequent side effect which has a multifactorial etiology. Here we study associations between anti-drug antibody (ADA) occurrence and demographic and clinical factors. Retrospective data from routine ADA test laboratories in Sweden, Denmark, Austria and Germany (Dusseldorf group) and from one research study in Germany (Munich group) were gathered to build a collaborative multi-cohort dataset within the framework of the ABIRISK project. A subset of 5638 interferon-beta (IFNß)-treated and 3440 natalizumab-treated patients having data on at least the first two years of treatment were eligible for interval-censored time-to-event analysis. In multivariate Cox regression, IFNß-1a subcutaneous and IFNß-1b subcutaneous treated patients were at higher risk of ADA occurrence compared to IFNß-1a intramuscular-treated patients (pooled HR = 6.4, 95% CI 4.9-8.4 and pooled HR = 8.7, 95% CI 6.6-11.4 respectively). Patients older than 50 years at start of IFNß therapy developed ADA more frequently than adult patients younger than 30 (pooled HR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.3). Men developed ADA more frequently than women (pooled HR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6). Interestingly we observed that in Sweden and Germany, patients who started IFNß in April were at higher risk of developing ADA (HR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.4 and HR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-3.9 respectively). This result is not confirmed in the other cohorts and warrants further investigations. Concerning natalizumab, patients older than 45 years had a higher ADA rate (pooled HR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.8) and women developed ADA more frequently than men (pooled HR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-2.0). We confirmed previously reported differences in immunogenicity of the different types of IFNß. Differences in ADA occurrence by sex and age are reported here for the first time. These findings should be further investigated taking into account other exposures and biomarkers.

Effect of Smoking Cessation on Multiple Sclerosis Prognosis.

IMPORTANCE: Smoking tobacco is a well-established risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic inflammatory disorder of the central nervous system usually characterized by bouts and remissions and typically followed by a secondary progressive (SP) course. However, it is not clear whether smoking after diagnosis is detrimental. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether smoking after MS diagnosis is associated with a change in time to SP disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional study of patients with prevalent MS who smoked at diagnosis (n = 728) taken from the Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis Study, which consists of patients from the Swedish National MS Registry. The study entrance date was at time of first-year smoking. The study was conducted between November 2008 and December 2011, with patient environmental data collected from November 2009 to March 2011 via questionnaire. Study participants were from all counties in Sweden diagnosed as having MS at the time of the Genes and Environment in Multiple Sclerosis Study and registered in the Swedish National MS Registry. Patients with MS with relapsing-remitting disease course or SP were included. These patients' conditions were diagnosed according to the McDonald criteria and the patients responded to recruitment letters with detailed questionnaires. EXPOSURE: Smoking, considered yearly after diagnosis and combined into a time-invariant covariate before diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Time to SPMS, measured using an accelerated failure time model, with smoking as a time-varying covariate. Other covariates included sex, age at diagnosis, snuff use, and smoking before diagnosis. RESULTS: The optimized model illustrated that each additional year of smoking after diagnosis accelerated the time to conversion to SPMS by 4.7% (acceleration factor, 1.047; 95% CI, 1.023-1.072; P < .001). Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated that those who continued to smoke continuously each year after diagnosis converted to SPMS faster than those who quit smoking, reaching SP disease at 48 and 56 years of age, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study provides evidence that continued smoking is associated with an acceleration in time to SPMS and that those who quit fare better. Therefore, we propose that patients with MS should be advised to stop smoking once a diagnosis has been made, not only to lessen risks for comorbidities, but also to avoid aggravating MS-related disability.

Identity-by-descent mapping in a Scandinavian multiple sclerosis cohort.

In an attempt to map chromosomal regions carrying rare gene variants contributing to the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS), we identified segments shared identical-by-descent (IBD) using the software BEAGLE 4.0's refined IBD analysis. IBD mapping aims at identifying segments inherited from a common ancestor and shared more frequently in case-case pairs. A total of 2106 MS patients of Nordic origin and 624 matched controls were genotyped on Illumina Human Quad 660 chip and an additional 1352 ethnically matched controls typed on Illumina HumanHap 550 and Illumina 1M were added. The quality control left a total of 441 731 markers for the analysis. After identification of segments shared by descent and significance testing, a filter function for markers with low IBD sharing was applied. Four regions on chromosomes 5, 9, 14 and 19 were found to be significantly associated with the risk for MS. However, all markers but for one were located telomerically, including the very distal markers. For methodological reasons, such segments have a low sharing of IBD signals and are prone to be false positives. One marker on chromosome 19 reached genome-wide significance and was not one of the distal markers. This marker was located within the GNA11 gene, which contains no previous association with MS. We conclude that IBD mapping is not sufficiently powered to identify MS risk loci even in ethnically relatively homogenous populations, or that alternatively rare variants are not adequately present.

Initial lymphocyte count and low BMI may affect fingolimod-induced lymphopenia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether pretreatment-lymphocyte counts, treatment before fingolimod, age, sex, or body mass index (BMI) affects the risk of fingolimod-induced lymphopenia in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). METHODS: Data were obtained from a German multicenter, single-arm, open-label study of patients with RRMS treated with fingolimod, and findings were validated in an independent Swedish national pharmacovigilance study. RESULTS: Four hundred eighteen patients with RRMS from Germany and 438 patients from Sweden were included. A nadir ≤0.2 × 10(9) lymphocytes/L was reached in 15% (95% confidence interval [CI] 12%-17%) of all 856 patients. Patients with lower starting lymphocyte counts (below 1.6 × 10(9)/L) and patients with BMI lower than 18.5 kg/m(2) (women only) were at higher risk of developing lymphopenia with values ≤0.2 × 10(9)/L in the combined analysis, increasing the risk in these subgroups to 26% (95% CI 20%-31%) or 46% (95% CI 23%-71%), respectively. In the German cohort, infection rates were similar in patients who developed severe lymphopenia and those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that patients with low baseline lymphocyte counts and underweight women in which fingolimod treatment will be initiated should possibly be monitored more closely.

HLA-A(∗)02, gender and tobacco smoking, but not multiple sclerosis, affects the IgG antibody response against human herpesvirus 6.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory, demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. Both genetic and environmental factors contribute to disease susceptibility and two viruses associated with MS are human herpesvirus (HHV)-6A and HHV-6B, together referred to as HHV-6. This study characterized the plasma IgG antibody response against HHV-6 in MS patients (n=446) and healthy controls (n=487), and the relationship between MS susceptibility factors and the anti-HHV-6 response was investigated. In addition, 134 samples were further investigated for IgG against the early HHV-6 antigen p41. Antibody levels were measured with ELISA. The overall seroprevalence against HHV-6 was 90%, with no significant difference in positivity or levels between MS patients and controls. Interestingly, carriership of HLA-A(∗)02 and tobacco smoking was associated with lower anti-HHV-6 IgG levels (p=0.0017 and p=0.026 respectively), whereas females sex was associated with higher levels (p=0.0090). No difference in IgG titers against p41 was observed between MS patients and controls. In conclusion, the IgG response against HHV-6 was associated with several factors that have previously been associated with MS susceptibility, possibly reflecting a relation between autoimmunity and how the immune system handles viral infections.

Modest familial risks for multiple sclerosis: a registry-based study of the population of Sweden.

Data on familial recurrence rates of complex diseases such as multiple sclerosis give important hints to aetiological factors such as the importance of genes and environment. By linking national registries, we sought to avoid common limitations of clinic-based studies such as low numbers, poor representation of the population and selection bias. Through the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and a nationwide hospital registry, a total of 28 396 patients with multiple sclerosis were identified. We used the national Multi-Generation Registry to identify first and second degree relatives as well as cousins, and the Swedish Twin Registry to identify twins of patients with multiple sclerosis. Crude and age corrected familial risks were estimated for cases and found to be in the same range as previously published figures. Matched population-based controls were used to calculate relative risks, revealing lower estimates of familial multiple sclerosis risks than previously reported, with a sibling recurrence risk (λs = 7.1; 95% confidence interval: 6.42-7.86). Surprisingly, despite a well-established lower prevalence of multiple sclerosis amongst males, the relative risks were equal among maternal and paternal relations. A previously reported increased risk in maternal relations could thus not be replicated. An observed higher transmission rate from fathers to sons compared with mothers to sons suggested a higher transmission to offspring from the less prevalent sex; therefore, presence of the so-called 'Carter effect' could not be excluded. We estimated the heritability of multiple sclerosis using 74 757 twin pairs with known zygosity, of which 315 were affected with multiple sclerosis, and added information from 2.5 million sibling pairs to increase power. The heritability was estimated to be 0.64 (0.36-0.76), whereas the shared environmental component was estimated to be 0.01 (0.00-0.18). In summary, whereas multiple sclerosis is to a great extent an inherited trait, the familial relative risks may be lower than usually reported.