ABSTRACT
Sea-level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea-level rise involve infrastructure and land-use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea-level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high-frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision-first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: We test whether traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) about how to make an item predicts a person's skill at making it among the Tsimane' (Bolivia). The rationale for this research is that the failure to distinguish between knowledge and skill might account for some of the conflicting results about the relationships between TEK, human health, and economic development. METHODS: We test the association between a commonly-used measure of individual knowledge (cultural consensus analysis) about how to make an arrow or a bag and a measure of individual skill at making these items, using ordinary least-squares regression. The study consists of 43 participants from 3 villages. RESULTS: We find no association between our measures of knowledge and skill (core model, p > 0.5, R2 = .132). CONCLUSIONS: While we cannot rule out the possibility of a real association between these phenomena, we interpret our findings as support for the claim that researchers should distinguish between methods to measure knowledge and skill when studying trends in TEK.
Subject(s)
Culture , Ecology , Ethnology , Knowledge , Models, Theoretical , Bolivia , Female , Household Articles , Humans , Male , Task Performance and AnalysisABSTRACT
El error de conjunción (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983) se estudió en dos escenarios de probabilidad que suponen distintos contenidos en las tareas a resolver: ficcional y realista (Teigen, Martinussen & Lund, 1996). Participaron voluntariamente 83 sujetos de ambos sexos, alumnos de Psicología de la Universidad de Buenos Aires, quienes resolvieron ambas tareas. Las diferencias halladas en las cantidades de errores de conjunción al comparar las ejecuciones en los dos escenarios fueron altamente significativas. Los resultados reflejan una disminución de los errores cuando se presentan tareas realistas en lugar de ficcionales. Tales hallazgos indican la relevancia de considerar elementos socioecológicos tanto en razonamientos probabilísticos (Hertwig & Gigerenzer, 1999) como en las estrategias didácticas de enseñanza de probabilidad.
