Shifting Ground: Landscape-Scale Modeling of Biogeochemical Processes under Climate Change in the Florida Everglades.

Scenarios modeling can be a useful tool to plan for climate change. In this study, we help Everglades restoration planning to bolster climate change resiliency by simulating plausible ecosystem responses to three climate change scenarios: a Baseline scenario of 2010 climate, and two scenarios that both included 1.5 °C warming and 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and differed only by rainfall: either increase or decrease by 10%. In conjunction with output from a water-use management model, we used these scenarios to drive the Everglades Landscape Model to simulate changes in a suite of parameters that include both hydrologic drivers and changes to soil pattern and process. In this paper we focus on the freshwater wetlands; sea level rise is specifically addressed in prior work. The decreased rainfall scenario produced marked changes across the system in comparison to the Baseline scenario. Most notably, muck fire risk was elevated for 49% of the period of simulation in one of the three indicator regions. Surface water flow velocity slowed drastically across most of the system, which may impair soil processes related to maintaining landscape patterning. Due to lower flow volumes, this scenario produced decreases in parameters related to flow-loading, such as phosphorus accumulation in the soil, and methylmercury production risk. The increased rainfall scenario was hydrologically similar to the Baseline scenario due to existing water management rules. A key change was phosphorus accumulation in the soil, an effect of flow-loading due to higher inflow from water control structures in this scenario.

Are the traditional large-scale drought indices suitable for shallow water wetlands? An example in the Everglades.

Numerous drought indices have been developed over the past several decades. However, few studies have focused on the suitability of indices for studies of ephemeral wetlands. The objective is to answer the following question: can the traditional large-scale drought indices characterize drought severity in shallow water wetlands such as the Everglades? The question was approached from two perspectives: the available water quantity and the response of wetland ecosystems to drought. The results showed the unsuitability of traditional large-scale drought indices for characterizing the actual available water quantity based on two findings. (1) Large spatial variations in precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PE), water table depth (WTD) and the monthly water storage change (SC) were observed in the Everglades; notably, the spatial variation in SC, which reflects the monthly water balance, was 1.86 and 1.62 times larger than the temporal variation between seasons and between years, respectively. (2) The large-scale water balance measured based on the water storage variation had an average indicating efficiency (IE) of only 60.01% due to the redistribution of interior water. The spatial distribution of variations in the Normalized Different Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the 2011 dry season showed significantly positive, significantly negative and weak correlations with the minimum WTD in wet prairies, graminoid prairies and sawgrass wetlands, respectively. The significant and opposite correlations imply the unsuitability of the traditional large-scale drought indices in evaluating the effect of drought on shallow water wetlands.

Nitrous oxide production and consumption by denitrification in a grassland: Effects of grazing and hydrology.

Denitrification is generally recognized as a major mechanism contributing to nitrous oxide (N2O) production, and is the only known biological process for N2O consumption. Understanding factors controlling N2O production and consumption during denitrification will provide insights into N2O emission variability, and potentially predict capacity of soils to serve as sinks or sources of N2O. This study investigated the effects of hydrology and grazing on N2O production and consumption in a grassland based agricultural watershed. A batch incubation study was conducted on soils (0-10 cm) collected along a hydrological gradient representing isolated wetland (Center), transient zone (Edge) and pasture upland (Upland), from both grazed and ungrazed areas. Production and consumption potentials of N2O were quantified on soils under four treatments, including (i) ambient condition, and amended with (ii) NO3(-), (iii) glucose-C, and (iv) NO3(-) +glucose-C. The impacts of grazing on N2O production and consumption were not observed. Soils in hydrologically distinct zones responded differently to N2O production and consumption. Under ambient conditions, both production and consumption rates of Edge soils were higher than those observed for Center and Upland soils. Results of amended incubations suggested NO3(-) was a key factor limiting N2O production and consumption rates in all hydrological zones. Over 5-d incubation with NO3(-) amendment, cumulative production and consumption of N2O for Center soils were 1.6 and 3.3 times higher than Edge soils, and 3.6 and 7.6 times higher than Upland soils, respectively. However, cumulative N2O net production for Edge soils was the highest, with 2 to 3 times higher than Upland and Center soils. Our results suggest that the transient areas between wetland and upland are likely to be "hot spots" of N2O emissions in this ecosystem. Wetlands within agricultural landscapes can potentially function to reduce both NO3(-) leaching and N2O emissions.