Visibility Graph Analysis of the Seismic Activity of Three Areas of the Cocos Plate Mexican Subduction Where the Last Three Large Earthquakes (M > 7) Occurred in 2017 and 2022.

The understanding of the dynamical behavior of seismic phenomena is currently an open problem, mainly because seismic series can be considered to be produced by phenomena exhibiting dynamic phase transitions; that is, with some complexity. For this purpose, the Middle America Trench in central Mexico is considered a natural laboratory for examining subduction because of its heterogenous natural structure. In this study, the Visibility Graph method was applied to study the seismic activity of three regions within the Cocos plate: the Tehuantepec Isthmus, the Flat slab and Michoacan, each one with a different level of seismicity. The method maps time series into graphs, and it is possible to connect the topological properties of the graph with the dynamical features underlying the time series. The seismicity analyzed was monitored in the three areas studied between 2010 and 2022. At the Flat Slab and Tehuantepec Isthmus, two intense earthquakes occurred on 7 and 19 September 2017, respectively, and, on 19 September 2022, another one occurred at Michoacan. The aim of this study was to determine the dynamical features and the possible differences between the three areas by applying the following method. First, the time evolution of the a- and b-values in the Gutenberg-Richter law was analyzed, followed by the relationship between the seismic properties and topological features using the VG method, the k-M slope and the characterization of the temporal correlations from the γ-exponent of the power law distribution, P(k) ∼ k-γ, and its relationship with the Hurst parameter, which allowed us to identify the correlation and persistence of each zone.

Tsallis q-Statistics in Seismology.

Non-extensive statistical mechanics (or q-statistics) is based on the so-called non-additive Tsallis entropy. Since its introduction by Tsallis, in 1988, as a generalization of the Boltzmann-Gibbs equilibrium statistical mechanics, it has steadily gained ground as a suitable theory for the description of the statistical properties of non-equilibrium complex systems. Therefore, it has been applied to numerous phenomena, including real seismicity. In particular, Tsallis entropy is expected to provide a guiding principle to reveal novel aspects of complex dynamical systems with catastrophes, such as seismic events. The exploration of the existing connections between Tsallis formalism and real seismicity has been the focus of extensive research activity in the last two decades. In particular, Tsallis q-statistics has provided a unified framework for the description of the collective properties of earthquakes and faults. Despite this progress, our present knowledge of the physical processes leading to the initiation of a rupture, and its subsequent growth through a fault system, remains quite limited. The aim of this paper was to provide an overview of the non-extensive interpretation of seismicity, along with the contributions of the Tsallis formalism to the statistical description of seismic events.

Nonlinear Statistical Features of the Seismicity in the Subduction Zone of Tehuantepec Isthmus, Southern México.

After the M8.2 main-shock occurred on 7 September 2017 at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico, the spatial distribution of seismicity has showed a clear clusterization of earthquakes along the collision region of the Tehuantepec Transform/Ridge with the Middle America Trench off Chiapas. Furthermore, nowadays, the temporal rate of occurrence in the number of earthquakes has also showed a pronounced increase. On the basis of this behavior, we studied the sequence of magnitudes of the earthquakes which occurred within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico from 2010 to 2020. Since big earthquakes are considered as a phase transition, after the M8.2 main-shock, one must expect changes in the Tehuantepec ridge dynamics, which can be observed considering that the b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter law, has also showed changes in time. The goal of this paper is to characterize the behavior of the seismic activity by using the Gutenberg-Richter law, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, visibility graph and nowcasting method. Those methods have showed important parameters in order to assess risk, the multifractality and connectivity. Our findings indicate, first that b-value shows a dependency on time, which is clearly described by our analyses based on nowcasting method, multifractality and visibility graph.

Natural Time Analysis of Seismicity within the Mexican Flat Slab before the M7.1 Earthquake on 19 September 2017.

One of the most important subduction zones in the world is located in the Mexican Pacific Coast, where the Cocos plate inserts beneath the North American plate. One part of it is located in the Mexican Pacific Coast, where the Cocos plate inserts beneath the North American plate with different dip angles, showing important seismicity. Under the central Mexican area, such a dip angle becomes practically horizontal and such an area is known as flat slab. An earthquake of magnitude M7.1 occurred on 19 September 2017, the epicenter of which was located in this flat slab. It caused important human and material losses of urban communities including a large area of Mexico City. The seismicity recorded in the flat slab region is analyzed here in natural time from 1995 until the occurrence of this M7.1 earthquake in 2017 by studying the entropy change under time reversal and the variability ß of the order parameter of seismicity as well as characterize the risk of an impending earthquake by applying the nowcasting method. The entropy change ΔS under time reversal minimizes on 21 June 2017 that is almost one week after the observation of such a minimum in the Chiapas region where a magnitude M8.2 earthquake took place on 7 September 2017 being Mexico's largest quake in more than a century. A minimum of ß was also observed during the period February-March 2017. Moreover, we show that, after the minimum of ΔS, the order parameter of seismicity starts diminishing, thus approaching gradually the critical value 0.070 around the end of August and the beginning of September 2017, which signals that a strong earthquake is anticipated shortly in the flat slab.

Identifying the Occurrence Time of the Deadly Mexico M8.2 Earthquake on 7 September 2017.

It has been shown that some dynamic features hidden in the time series of complex systems can be unveiled if we analyze them in a time domain termed natural time. In this analysis, we can identify when a system approaches a critical point (dynamic phase transition). Here, based on natural time analysis, which enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, we discuss a procedure through which we could achieve the identification of the occurrence time of the M8.2 earthquake that occurred on 7 September 2017 in Mexico in Chiapas region, which is the largest magnitude event recorded in Mexico in more than a century. In particular, we first investigated the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in the entire Mexico and found that, during an almost 30-year period, i.e., from 1 January 1988 until the M8.2 earthquake occurrence, they were minimized around 27 July 2017. From this date, we started computing the variance of seismicity in Chiapas region and found that it approached the critical value 0.070 on 6 September 2017, almost one day before this M8.2 earthquake occurrence.

The Complexity Measures Associated with the Fluctuations of the Entropy in Natural Time before the Deadly México M8.2 Earthquake on 7 September 2017.

We analyse seismicity during the 6-year period 2012-2017 in the new time domain termed natural time in the Chiapas region where the M8.2 earthquake occurred, Mexico's largest earthquake in more than a century, in order to study the complexity measures associated with fluctuations of entropy as well as with entropy change under time reversal. We find that almost three months before the M8.2 earthquake, i.e., on 14 June 2017, the complexity measure associated with the fluctuations of entropy change under time reversal shows an abrupt increase, which, however, does not hold for the complexity measure associated with the fluctuations of entropy in forward time. On the same date, the entropy change under time reversal has been previously found to exhibit a minimum [Physica A 506, 625-634 (2018)]; we thus find here that this minimum is also accompanied by increased fluctuations of the entropy change under time reversal. In addition, we find a simultaneous increase of the Tsallis entropic index q.

Relationship between the frequency magnitude distribution and the visibility graph in the synthetic seismicity generated by a simple stick-slip system with asperities.

By using the method of the visibility graph (VG) the synthetic seismicity generated by a simple stick-slip system with asperities is analysed. The stick-slip system mimics the interaction between tectonic plates, whose asperities are given by sandpapers of different granularity degrees. The VG properties of the seismic sequences have been put in relationship with the typical seismological parameter, the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Between the b-value of the synthetic seismicity and the slope of the least square line fitting the k-M plot (relationship between the magnitude M of each synthetic event and its connectivity degree k) a close linear relationship is found, also verified by real seismicity.