ABSTRACT
The spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 across India's states and union territories is not uniform, and the reasons for the heterogeneous spread are unclear. Identifying the space-time trends and underlying indicators influencing COVID-19 epidemiology at micro-administrative units (districts) will help guide public health strategies. The district-wise daily COVID-19 data of cases and deaths from February 2020 to August 2021 (COVID-19 waves-I and II) for the entire country were downloaded and curated from public databases. The COVID-19 data normalized with the projected population (2020) and used for space-time trend analysis shows the states/districts in southern India are the worst hit. Coastal districts and districts adjoining large urban regions of Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Goa, and New Delhi experienced > 50,001 cases per million population. Negative binomial regression analysis with 21 independent variables (identified through multicollinearity analysis, with VIF < 10) covering demography, socio-economic status, environment, and health was carried out for wave-I, wave-II, and total (wave-I and wave-II) cases and deaths. It shows wealth index, derived from household amenities datasets, has a high positive risk ratio (RR) with COVID-19 cases (RR: 3.577; 95% CI: 2.062-6.205) and deaths (RR: 2.477; 95% CI: 1.361-4.506) across the districts. Furthermore, socio-economic factors such as literacy rate, health services, other workers' rate, alcohol use in men, tobacco use in women, overweight/obese women, and rainfall have a positive RR and are significantly associated with COVID-19 cases/deaths at the district level. These positively associated variables are highly interconnected in COVID-19 hotspot districts. Among these, the wealth index, literacy rate, and health services, the key indices of socio-economic development within a state, are some of the significant indicators associated with COVID-19 epidemiology in India. The identification of district-level space-time trends and indicators associated with COVID-19 would help policymakers devise strategies and guidelines during public health emergencies.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Male , Humans , Female , COVID-19/epidemiology , India/epidemiology , Family CharacteristicsABSTRACT
Current worldwide projections of sea-level rise show a staggering increase in water level of up to 2 m by 2100 owing to global warming exacerbated by anthropogenically induced climate change. While amplified rates of sea-level rise is an immense hazard to coastal communities, storm surges are expected to increase in intensity and frequency making it an equally significant threat to coastal populations. In France, these hazards are not uncommon with records of extreme tempests every thousand years in the Holocene. Despite these recurring devastating events, in the Bay of Saint-Brieuc, Brittany, legislated laws for coastal management do not entirely focus on protecting littoral zones from such calamities. 130,739 people are concentrated in 21 municipalities with major cities located at close proximity to the shoreline with numerous socio-economic activities, which increases the vulnerability of the coastal population and infrastructures; thus, affirming the indispensable need of a thorough vulnerability assessment. Here, we conduct a mechanistic appraisal of the vulnerability of the bay considering thirteen parameters within three governing sub-systems that demonstrate the multidimensional dynamics in these municipalities. In the occasion of an extreme climatic event, our results of total vulnerability show risks in the sub-systems highlighting erosional processes due to augmented hydrodynamics, socio-economic and administrative vulnerabilities associated with anthropogenic development. Eight municipalities of the bay portray moderate to very high vulnerability and the remaining exhibits a lower risk; however, not devoid of high vulnerabilities for certain sub-systems. We posit that a more accurate fit for predicting the total vulnerability of the region can be achieved by exclusively integrating physical-natural and administrative sub-system vulnerabilities. We propose generic but requisite recommendations for Integrated Coastal Zone Management such as surveillance of urban development along the coast, implementation of coastal defense systems and appropriate industrial corridors to attenuate and dispose hazardous refuse.
ABSTRACT
Empirical models have simulated the consequences of uplift and orographic-precipitation on the evolution of orogens whereas the effects of these forcings on ridgelines and consequent topography of natural landscapes remain equivocal. Here we demonstrate the feedback of a terrestrial landscape in NW Borneo subject to uplift and precipitation gradient owing to orographic effect, and leading to less-predictable flooding and irreversible damages to life and property. Disequilibrium in a large catchment recording the lowest rainfall rates in Borneo, and adjacent drainage basins as determined through χ, a proxy for steady-state channel elevation, is shown to result in dynamic migration of water divide from the windward-side of the orogen towards the leeward-side to attain equilibrium. Loss of drainage area in the leeward-side reduces erosion rates with progressive shortening resulting in an unstable landscape with tectonic uplift, gravity faults and debris flows. 14C dating of exhumed cut-and-fill terraces reveal a Mid-Pleistocene age, suggesting tectonic events in the trend of exhumation rates (>7 mm a-1) estimated by thermochronology, and confirmed by morphotectonic and sedimentological analyses. Our study suggests that divide migration leads to lowered erosion rates, channel narrowing, and sediment accretion in intermontane basins on the leeward-side ultimately resulting in enhanced flooding.
