Epidemiological impacts of attenuated African swine fever virus circulating in wild boar populations.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) genotype II has been present in wild boar in the European Union since 2014. Control measures have reduced the incidence of the ASF, but highly virulent as well as attenuated ASFV strains continue to circulate. We present the intraherd epidemiological parameters of low and highly virulent ASFV in wild boar from experimental data, and for the first time, evaluate the impact of attenuated strain circulation through unique deterministic compartmental model simulations under various potential scenarios and hypotheses. Using an estimated PCR infectious threshold of TPCR = 36.4, we obtained several transmission parameters, like an Rx (experimental intraherd R0) value of 4.5. We also introduce two novel epidemiological parameters: infectious power and resistance power, which indicate the ability of animals to transmit the infection and the reduction in infectiousness after successive exposures to varying virulence strains, respectively. The presence of ASFV attenuated strains results in 4-17% of animals either remaining in a carrier state or becoming susceptible again when exposed to highly virulent ASFV for more than two years. The timing between exposures to viruses of different virulence also influences the percentage of animals that die or remain susceptible. The findings of this study can be utilized in epidemiological modelling and provide insight into important risk situations that should be considered for surveillance and future potential ASF vaccination strategies in wild boar.

Large-scale study on virological and serological prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in cats and dogs in Spain.

The disease produced by the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is currently one of the primary concerns worldwide. Knowing the zoonotic origin of the disease and that several animal species, including dogs and cats, are susceptible to viral infection, it is critical to assess the relevance of pets in this pandemic. Here, we performed a large-scale study on SARS-CoV-2 serological and viral prevalence in cats and dogs in Spain in order to elucidate their role and susceptibility. Samples from animals in contact with COVID-19 positive people and/or compatible symptoms (n = 492), as well as from random animals (n = 1024), were taken. Despite the large number of animals analyzed, only 12 animals (eight dogs and four cats), which represents 0.79% of the total analyzed animals (n = 1516), were positive for viral SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection by reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) in which viral isolation was possible in four animals. We detected neutralizing antibodies in 34 animals, four of them were also positive for PCR. This study evidences that pets are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection in natural conditions but at a low level, as evidenced by the low percentage of positive animals detected, being infected humans the main source of infection. However, the inclusion of animals in the surveillance of COVID-19 is still recommended.

An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain.

This work develops a methodology for estimating risk of wind-borne introduction of flying insects into a country, identifying areas and periods of high risk of vector-borne diseases incursion. This risk can be characterized by the role of suitable temperatures and wind currents in small insects' survival and movements, respectively. The model predicts the number density of introduced insects over space and time based on three processes: the advection due to wind currents, the deposition on the ground and the survival due to climatic conditions. Spanish livestock has suffered many bluetongue outbreaks since 2004 and numerous experts point to Culicoides transported by wind from affected areas in North Africa as a possible cause. This work implements numerical experiments simulating the introduction of Culicoides in 2004. The model identified southern and eastern Spain, particularly between June and November, as being at greatest risk of wind-borne Culicoides introduction, which matches field data on bluetongue outbreaks in Spain this year. This validation suggests that this model may be useful for predicting introduction of airborne pathogens of significance to animal productivity.

Motion-based video monitoring for early detection of livestock diseases: The case of African swine fever.

Early detection of infectious diseases can substantially reduce the health and economic impacts on livestock production. Here we describe a system for monitoring animal activity based on video and data processing techniques, in order to detect slowdown and weakening due to infection with African swine fever (ASF), one of the most significant threats to the pig industry. The system classifies and quantifies motion-based animal behaviour and daily activity in video sequences, allowing automated and non-intrusive surveillance in real-time. The aim of this system is to evaluate significant changes in animals' motion after being experimentally infected with ASF virus. Indeed, pig mobility declined progressively and fell significantly below pre-infection levels starting at four days after infection at a confidence level of 95%. Furthermore, daily motion decreased in infected animals by approximately 10% before the detection of the disease by clinical signs. These results show the promise of video processing techniques for real-time early detection of livestock infectious diseases.

Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: the example of Bulgaria.

The study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF) from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever.