TimeTeller: A tool to probe the circadian clock as a multigene dynamical system.

Recent studies have established that the circadian clock influences onset, progression and therapeutic outcomes in a number of diseases including cancer and heart diseases. Therefore, there is a need for tools to measure the functional state of the molecular circadian clock and its downstream targets in patients. Moreover, the clock is a multi-dimensional stochastic oscillator and there are few tools for analysing it as a noisy multigene dynamical system. In this paper we consider the methodology behind TimeTeller, a machine learning tool that analyses the clock as a noisy multigene dynamical system and aims to estimate circadian clock function from a single transcriptome by modelling the multi-dimensional state of the clock. We demonstrate its potential for clock systems assessment by applying it to mouse, baboon and human microarray and RNA-seq data and show how to visualise and quantify the global structure of the clock, quantitatively stratify individual transcriptomic samples by clock dysfunction and globally compare clocks across individuals, conditions and tissues thus highlighting its potential relevance for advancing circadian medicine.

Statistically derived geometrical landscapes capture principles of decision-making dynamics during cell fate transitions.

Fate decisions in developing tissues involve cells transitioning between discrete cell states, each defined by distinct gene expression profiles. The Waddington landscape, in which the development of a cell is viewed as a ball rolling through a valley filled terrain, is an appealing way to describe differentiation. To construct and validate accurate landscapes, quantitative methods based on experimental data are necessary. We combined principled statistical methods with a framework based on catastrophe theory and approximate Bayesian computation to formulate a quantitative dynamical landscape that accurately predicts cell fate outcomes of pluripotent stem cells exposed to different combinations of signaling factors. Analysis of the landscape revealed two distinct ways in which cells make a binary choice between one of two fates. We suggest that these represent archetypal designs for developmental decisions. The approach is broadly applicable for the quantitative analysis of differentiation and for determining the logic of developmental decisions.

Geometry of gene regulatory dynamics.

Embryonic development leads to the reproducible and ordered appearance of complexity from egg to adult. The successive differentiation of different cell types that elaborate this complexity results from the activity of gene networks and was likened by Waddington to a flow through a landscape in which valleys represent alternative fates. Geometric methods allow the formal representation of such landscapes and codify the types of behaviors that result from systems of differential equations. Results from Smale and coworkers imply that systems encompassing gene network models can be represented as potential gradients with a Riemann metric, justifying the Waddington metaphor. Here, we extend this representation to include parameter dependence and enumerate all three-way cellular decisions realizable by tuning at most two parameters, which can be generalized to include spatial coordinates in a tissue. All diagrams of cell states vs. model parameters are thereby enumerated. We unify a number of standard models for spatial pattern formation by expressing them in potential form (i.e., as topographic elevation). Turing systems appear nonpotential, yet in suitable variables the dynamics are low dimensional and potential. A time-independent embedding recovers the original variables. Lateral inhibition is described by a saddle point with many unstable directions. A model for the patterning of the Drosophila eye appears as relaxation in a bistable potential. Geometric reasoning provides intuitive dynamic models for development that are well adapted to fit time-lapse data.

Quantifying cell transitions in C. elegans with data-fitted landscape models.

Increasing interest has emerged in new mathematical approaches that simplify the study of complex differentiation processes by formalizing Waddington's landscape metaphor. However, a rational method to build these landscape models remains an open problem. Here we study vulval development in C. elegans by developing a framework based on Catastrophe Theory (CT) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to build data-fitted landscape models. We first identify the candidate qualitative landscapes, and then use CT to build the simplest model consistent with the data, which we quantitatively fit using ABC. The resulting model suggests that the underlying mechanism is a quantifiable two-step decision controlled by EGF and Notch-Delta signals, where a non-vulval/vulval decision is followed by a bistable transition to the two vulval states. This new model fits a broad set of data and makes several novel predictions.

Multiplexing information flow through dynamic signalling systems.

We consider how a signalling system can act as an information hub by multiplexing information arising from multiple signals. We formally define multiplexing, mathematically characterise which systems can multiplex and how well they can do it. While the results of this paper are theoretical, to motivate the idea of multiplexing, we provide experimental evidence that tentatively suggests that the NF-κB transcription factor can multiplex information about changes in multiple signals. We believe that our theoretical results may resolve the apparent paradox of how a system like NF-κB that regulates cell fate and inflammatory signalling in response to diverse stimuli can appear to have the low information carrying capacity suggested by recent studies on scalar signals. In carrying out our study, we introduce new methods for the analysis of large, nonlinear stochastic dynamic models, and develop computational algorithms that facilitate the calculation of fundamental constructs of information theory such as Kullback-Leibler divergences and sensitivity matrices, and link these methods to a new theory about multiplexing information. We show that many current models such as those of the NF-κB system cannot multiplex effectively and provide models that overcome this limitation using post-transcriptional modifications.

Parameter sensitivity analysis for biochemical reaction networks.

Biochemical reaction networks describe the chemical interactions occurring between molecular populations inside the living cell. These networks can be very noisy and complex and they often involve many variables and even more parameters. Parameter sensitivity analysis that studies the effects of parameter changes to the behaviour of biochemical networks can be a powerful tool in unravelling their key parameters and interactions. It can also be very useful in designing experiments that study these networks and in addressing parameter identifiability issues. This article develops a general methodology for analysing the sensitivity of probability distributions of stochastic processes describing the time-evolution of biochemical reaction networks to changes in their parameter values. We derive the coefficients that efficiently summarise the sensitivity of the probability distribution of the network to each parameter and discuss their properties. The methodology is scalable to large and complex stochastic reaction networks involving many parameters and can be applied to oscillatory networks. We use the two-dimensional Brusselator system as an illustrative example and apply our approach to the analysis of the Drosophila circadian clock. We investigate the impact of using stochastic over deterministic models and provide an analysis that can support key decisions for experimental design, such as the choice of variables and time-points to be observed.

Disentangling juxtacrine from paracrine signalling in dynamic tissue.

Prolactin is a major hormone product of the pituitary gland, the central endocrine regulator. Despite its physiological importance, the cell-level mechanisms of prolactin production are not well understood. Having significantly improved the resolution of real-time-single-cell-GFP-imaging, the authors recently revealed that prolactin gene transcription is highly dynamic and stochastic yet shows space-time coordination in an intact tissue slice. However, it still remains an open question as to what kind of cellular communication mediates the observed space-time organization. To determine the type of interaction between cells we developed a statistical model. The degree of similarity between two expression time series was studied in terms of two distance measures, Euclidean and geodesic, the latter being a network-theoretic distance defined to be the minimal number of edges between nodes, and this was used to discriminate between juxtacrine from paracrine signalling. The analysis presented here suggests that juxtacrine signalling dominates. To further determine whether the coupling is coordinating transcription or post-transcriptional activities we used stochastic switch modelling to infer the transcriptional profiles of cells and estimated their similarity measures to deduce that their spatial cellular coordination involves coupling of transcription via juxtacrine signalling. We developed a computational model that involves an inter-cell juxtacrine coupling, yielding simulation results that show space-time coordination in the transcription level that is in agreement with the above analysis. The developed model is expected to serve as the prototype for the further study of tissue-level organised gene expression for epigenetically regulated genes, such as prolactin.

Asymmetry between Activation and Deactivation during a Transcriptional Pulse.

Transcription in eukaryotic cells occurs in gene-specific bursts or pulses of activity. Recent studies identified a spectrum of transcriptionally active "on-states," interspersed with periods of inactivity, but these "off-states" and the process of transcriptional deactivation are poorly understood. To examine what occurs during deactivation, we investigate the dynamics of switching between variable rates. We measured live single-cell expression of luciferase reporters from human growth hormone or human prolactin promoters in a pituitary cell line. Subsequently, we applied a statistical variable-rate model of transcription, validated by single-molecule FISH, to estimate switching between transcriptional rates. Under the assumption that transcription can switch to any rate at any time, we found that transcriptional activation occurs predominantly as a single switch, whereas deactivation occurs with graded, stepwise decreases in transcription rate. Experimentally altering cAMP signalling with forskolin or chromatin remodelling with histone deacetylase inhibitor modifies the duration of defined transcriptional states. Our findings reveal transcriptional activation and deactivation as mechanistically independent, asymmetrical processes.

Long-time analytic approximation of large stochastic oscillators: Simulation, analysis and inference.

In order to analyse large complex stochastic dynamical models such as those studied in systems biology there is currently a great need for both analytical tools and also algorithms for accurate and fast simulation and estimation. We present a new stochastic approximation of biological oscillators that addresses these needs. Our method, called phase-corrected LNA (pcLNA) overcomes the main limitations of the standard Linear Noise Approximation (LNA) to remain uniformly accurate for long times, still maintaining the speed and analytically tractability of the LNA. As part of this, we develop analytical expressions for key probability distributions and associated quantities, such as the Fisher Information Matrix and Kullback-Leibler divergence and we introduce a new approach to system-global sensitivity analysis. We also present algorithms for statistical inference and for long-term simulation of oscillating systems that are shown to be as accurate but much faster than leaping algorithms and algorithms for integration of diffusion equations. Stochastic versions of published models of the circadian clock and NF-κB system are used to illustrate our results.

Inferring transcriptional logic from multiple dynamic experiments.

MOTIVATION: The availability of more data of dynamic gene expression under multiple experimental conditions provides new information that makes the key goal of identifying not only the transcriptional regulators of a gene but also the underlying logical structure attainable. RESULTS: We propose a novel method for inferring transcriptional regulation using a simple, yet biologically interpretable, model to find the logic by which a set of candidate genes and their associated transcription factors (TFs) regulate the transcriptional process of a gene of interest. Our dynamic model links the mRNA transcription rate of the target gene to the activation states of the TFs assuming that these interactions are consistent across multiple experiments and over time. A trans-dimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to efficiently sample the regulatory logic under different combinations of parents and rank the estimated models by their posterior probabilities. We demonstrate and compare our methodology with other methods using simulation examples and apply it to a study of transcriptional regulation of selected target genes of Arabidopsis Thaliana from microarray time series data obtained under multiple biotic stresses. We show that our method is able to detect complex regulatory interactions that are consistent under multiple experimental conditions. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Programs are written in MATLAB and Statistics Toolbox Release 2016b, The MathWorks, Inc., Natick, Massachusetts, United States and are available on GitHub https://github.com/giorgosminas/TRS and at http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/systemsbiology/research/software. CONTACT: giorgos.minas@warwick.ac.uk or b.f.finkenstadt@warwick.ac.uk. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

ReTrOS: a MATLAB toolbox for reconstructing transcriptional activity from gene and protein expression data.

BACKGROUND: Given the development of high-throughput experimental techniques, an increasing number of whole genome transcription profiling time series data sets, with good temporal resolution, are becoming available to researchers. The ReTrOS toolbox (Reconstructing Transcription Open Software) provides MATLAB-based implementations of two related methods, namely ReTrOS-Smooth and ReTrOS-Switch, for reconstructing the temporal transcriptional activity profile of a gene from given mRNA expression time series or protein reporter time series. The methods are based on fitting a differential equation model incorporating the processes of transcription, translation and degradation. RESULTS: The toolbox provides a framework for model fitting along with statistical analyses of the model with a graphical interface and model visualisation. We highlight several applications of the toolbox, including the reconstruction of the temporal cascade of transcriptional activity inferred from mRNA expression data and protein reporter data in the core circadian clock in Arabidopsis thaliana, and how such reconstructed transcription profiles can be used to study the effects of different cell lines and conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The ReTrOS toolbox allows users to analyse gene and/or protein expression time series where, with appropriate formulation of prior information about a minimum of kinetic parameters, in particular rates of degradation, users are able to infer timings of changes in transcriptional activity. Data from any organism and obtained from a range of technologies can be used as input due to the flexible and generic nature of the model and implementation. The output from this software provides a useful analysis of time series data and can be incorporated into further modelling approaches or in hypothesis generation.

Systems Chronotherapeutics.

Chronotherapeutics aim at treating illnesses according to the endogenous biologic rhythms, which moderate xenobiotic metabolism and cellular drug response. The molecular clocks present in individual cells involve approximately fifteen clock genes interconnected in regulatory feedback loops. They are coordinated by the suprachiasmatic nuclei, a hypothalamic pacemaker, which also adjusts the circadian rhythms to environmental cycles. As a result, many mechanisms of diseases and drug effects are controlled by the circadian timing system. Thus, the tolerability of nearly 500 medications varies by up to fivefold according to circadian scheduling, both in experimental models and/or patients. Moreover, treatment itself disrupted, maintained, or improved the circadian timing system as a function of drug timing. Improved patient outcomes on circadian-based treatments (chronotherapy) have been demonstrated in randomized clinical trials, especially for cancer and inflammatory diseases. However, recent technological advances have highlighted large interpatient differences in circadian functions resulting in significant variability in chronotherapy response. Such findings advocate for the advancement of personalized chronotherapeutics through interdisciplinary systems approaches. Thus, the combination of mathematical, statistical, technological, experimental, and clinical expertise is now shaping the development of dedicated devices and diagnostic and delivery algorithms enabling treatment individualization. In particular, multiscale systems chronopharmacology approaches currently combine mathematical modeling based on cellular and whole-body physiology to preclinical and clinical investigations toward the design of patient-tailored chronotherapies. We review recent systems research works aiming to the individualization of disease treatment, with emphasis on both cancer management and circadian timing system-resetting strategies for improving chronic disease control and patient outcomes.

Signal transduction controls heterogeneous NF-κB dynamics and target gene expression through cytokine-specific refractory states.

Cells respond dynamically to pulsatile cytokine stimulation. Here we report that single, or well-spaced pulses of TNFα (>100 min apart) give a high probability of NF-κB activation. However, fewer cells respond to shorter pulse intervals (<100 min) suggesting a heterogeneous refractory state. This refractory state is established in the signal transduction network downstream of TNFR and upstream of IKK, and depends on the level of the NF-κB system negative feedback protein A20. If a second pulse within the refractory phase is IL-1ß instead of TNFα, all of the cells respond. This suggests a mechanism by which two cytokines can synergistically activate an inflammatory response. Gene expression analyses show strong correlation between the cellular dynamic response and NF-κB-dependent target gene activation. These data suggest that refractory states in the NF-κB system constitute an inherent design motif of the inflammatory response and we suggest that this may avoid harmful homogenous cellular activation.

Reconstruction of Cell Surface Densities of Ion Pumps, Exchangers, and Channels from mRNA Expression, Conductance Kinetics, Whole-Cell Calcium, and Current-Clamp Voltage Recordings, with an Application to Human Uterine Smooth Muscle Cells.

Uterine smooth muscle cells remain quiescent throughout most of gestation, only generating spontaneous action potentials immediately prior to, and during, labor. This study presents a method that combines transcriptomics with biophysical recordings to characterise the conductance repertoire of these cells, the 'conductance repertoire' being the total complement of ion channels and transporters expressed by an electrically active cell. Transcriptomic analysis provides a set of potential electrogenic entities, of which the conductance repertoire is a subset. Each entity within the conductance repertoire was modeled independently and its gating parameter values were fixed using the available biophysical data. The only remaining free parameters were the surface densities for each entity. We characterise the space of combinations of surface densities (density vectors) consistent with experimentally observed membrane potential and calcium waveforms. This yields insights on the functional redundancy of the system as well as its behavioral versatility. Our approach couples high-throughput transcriptomic data with physiological behaviors in health and disease, and provides a formal method to link genotype to phenotype in excitable systems. We accurately predict current densities and chart functional redundancy. For example, we find that to evoke the observed voltage waveform, the BK channel is functionally redundant whereas hERG is essential. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that activation of calcium-activated chloride conductances by intracellular calcium release is the key factor underlying spontaneous depolarisations.

PeTTSy: a computational tool for perturbation analysis of complex systems biology models.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decade sensitivity analysis techniques have been shown to be very useful to analyse complex and high dimensional Systems Biology models. However, many of the currently available toolboxes have either used parameter sampling, been focused on a restricted set of model observables of interest, studied optimisation of a objective function, or have not dealt with multiple simultaneous model parameter changes where the changes can be permanent or temporary. RESULTS: Here we introduce our new, freely downloadable toolbox, PeTTSy (Perturbation Theory Toolbox for Systems). PeTTSy is a package for MATLAB which implements a wide array of techniques for the perturbation theory and sensitivity analysis of large and complex ordinary differential equation (ODE) based models. PeTTSy is a comprehensive modelling framework that introduces a number of new approaches and that fully addresses analysis of oscillatory systems. It examines sensitivity analysis of the models to perturbations of parameters, where the perturbation timing, strength, length and overall shape can be controlled by the user. This can be done in a system-global setting, namely, the user can determine how many parameters to perturb, by how much and for how long. PeTTSy also offers the user the ability to explore the effect of the parameter perturbations on many different types of outputs: period, phase (timing of peak) and model solutions. PeTTSy can be employed on a wide range of mathematical models including free-running and forced oscillators and signalling systems. To enable experimental optimisation using the Fisher Information Matrix it efficiently allows one to combine multiple variants of a model (i.e. a model with multiple experimental conditions) in order to determine the value of new experiments. It is especially useful in the analysis of large and complex models involving many variables and parameters. CONCLUSIONS: PeTTSy is a comprehensive tool for analysing large and complex models of regulatory and signalling systems. It allows for simulation and analysis of models under a variety of environmental conditions and for experimental optimisation of complex combined experiments. With its unique set of tools it makes a valuable addition to the current library of sensitivity analysis toolboxes. We believe that this software will be of great use to the wider biological, systems biology and modelling communities.

Time-Series Transcriptomics Reveals That AGAMOUS-LIKE22 Affects Primary Metabolism and Developmental Processes in Drought-Stressed Arabidopsis.

In Arabidopsis thaliana, changes in metabolism and gene expression drive increased drought tolerance and initiate diverse drought avoidance and escape responses. To address regulatory processes that link these responses, we set out to identify genes that govern early responses to drought. To do this, a high-resolution time series transcriptomics data set was produced, coupled with detailed physiological and metabolic analyses of plants subjected to a slow transition from well-watered to drought conditions. A total of 1815 drought-responsive differentially expressed genes were identified. The early changes in gene expression coincided with a drop in carbon assimilation, and only in the late stages with an increase in foliar abscisic acid content. To identify gene regulatory networks (GRNs) mediating the transition between the early and late stages of drought, we used Bayesian network modeling of differentially expressed transcription factor (TF) genes. This approach identified AGAMOUS-LIKE22 (AGL22), as key hub gene in a TF GRN. It has previously been shown that AGL22 is involved in the transition from vegetative state to flowering but here we show that AGL22 expression influences steady state photosynthetic rates and lifetime water use. This suggests that AGL22 uniquely regulates a transcriptional network during drought stress, linking changes in primary metabolism and the initiation of stress responses.

Spatially coordinated dynamic gene transcription in living pituitary tissue.

Transcription at individual genes in single cells is often pulsatile and stochastic. A key question emerges regarding how this behaviour contributes to tissue phenotype, but it has been a challenge to quantitatively analyse this in living cells over time, as opposed to studying snap-shots of gene expression state. We have used imaging of reporter gene expression to track transcription in living pituitary tissue. We integrated live-cell imaging data with statistical modelling for quantitative real-time estimation of the timing of switching between transcriptional states across a whole tissue. Multiple levels of transcription rate were identified, indicating that gene expression is not a simple binary 'on-off' process. Immature tissue displayed shorter durations of high-expressing states than the adult. In adult pituitary tissue, direct cell contacts involving gap junctions allowed local spatial coordination of prolactin gene expression. Our findings identify how heterogeneous transcriptional dynamics of single cells may contribute to overall tissue behaviour.

Frequency modulated translocational oscillations of Nrf2, a transcription factor functioning like a wireless sensor.

The discovery that nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) undergoes translocational oscillations from cytoplasm to nucleus in human cells with frequency modulation linked to activation of a stress-stimulated cytoprotective response raises the prospect that the Nrf2 works mechanistically analogous to a wireless sensor. Herein, we consider how this new model of Nrf2 oscillation resolves previous inexplicable experimental findings on Nrf2 regulation and why it is fit-for-purpose. Further investigation is required to assess how generally applicable the oscillatory mechanism is and if characteristics of this regulatory control can be found in vivo. It suggests there are multiple, potentially re-enforcing receptors for Nrf2 activation, indicating that potent Nrf2 activation for improved health and treatment of disease may be achieved through combination of Nrf2 system stimulants.

Coupling between the Circadian Clock and Cell Cycle Oscillators: Implication for Healthy Cells and Malignant Growth.

Uncontrolled cell proliferation is one of the key features leading to cancer. Seminal works in chronobiology have revealed that disruption of the circadian timing system in mice, either by surgical, genetic, or environmental manipulation, increased tumor development. In humans, shift work is a risk factor for cancer. Based on these observations, the link between the circadian clock and cell cycle has become intuitive. But despite identification of molecular connections between the two processes, the influence of the clock on the dynamics of the cell cycle has never been formally observed. Recently, two studies combining single live cell imaging with computational methods have shed light on robust coupling between clock and cell cycle oscillators. We recapitulate here these novel findings and integrate them with earlier results in both healthy and cancerous cells. Moreover, we propose that the cell cycle may be synchronized or slowed down through coupling with the circadian clock, which results in reduced tumor growth. More than ever, systems biology has become instrumental to understand the dynamic interaction between the circadian clock and cell cycle, which is critical in cellular coordination and for diseases such as cancer.

A stochastic transcriptional switch model for single cell imaging data.

Gene expression is made up of inherently stochastic processes within single cells and can be modeled through stochastic reaction networks (SRNs). In particular, SRNs capture the features of intrinsic variability arising from intracellular biochemical processes. We extend current models for gene expression to allow the transcriptional process within an SRN to follow a random step or switch function which may be estimated using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This stochastic switch model provides a generic framework to capture many different dynamic features observed in single cell gene expression. Inference for such SRNs is challenging due to the intractability of the transition densities. We derive a model-specific birth-death approximation and study its use for inference in comparison with the linear noise approximation where both approximations are considered within the unifying framework of state-space models. The methodology is applied to synthetic as well as experimental single cell imaging data measuring expression of the human prolactin gene in pituitary cells.