Environmental fluctuations and level of density-compensation strongly affects the probability of fixation and fixation times.

The probability of, and time to, fixation of a mutation in a population has traditionally been studied by the classic Wright-Fisher model where population size is constant. Recent theoretical expansions have covered fluctuating populations in various ways but have not incorporated models of how the environment fluctuates in combination with different levels of density-compensation affecting fecundity. We tested the hypothesis that the probability of, and time to, fixation of neutral, advantageous and deleterious mutations is dependent on how the environment fluctuates over time, and on the level of density-compensation. We found that fixation probabilities and times were dependent on the pattern of autocorrelation of carrying capacity over time and interacted with density-compensation. The pattern found was most pronounced at small population sizes. The patterns differed greatly depending on whether the mutation was neutral, advantageous, or disadvantageous. The results indicate that the degree of mismatch between carrying capacity and population size is a key factor, rather than population size per se, and that effective population sizes can be very low also when the census population size is far above the carrying capacity. This study highlights the need for explicit population dynamic models and models for environmental fluctuations for the understanding of the dynamics of genes in populations.

Microsatellite data resolve phylogeographic patterns in European grayling, Thymallus thymallus, Salmonidae.

The phylogeography of an endangered salmonid, European grayling (Thymallus thymallus), was studied based on analysis of 17 nuclear microsatellite DNA loci. In agreement with earlier mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) studies, phylogenetic relationships of the populations suggested that northern Europe was colonized from two distinct Pleistocene refugia. Furthermore, microsatellites revealed highly supported grouping of mainland Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, German and Slovenian populations, suggesting that grayling from the northwestern and central Europe have descended from their southern conspecifics. The level of divergence between populations was substantial, even across short geographical distances. Although this was in part due to postglacial colonization patterns and contemporary barriers for gene flow, the high divergence estimates between hydrologically connected sampling locations implied efficient interpopulation reproductive isolation. Microsatellites revealed that the populations exhibited, on average, only 3.5 (+/-2.2) alleles per locus, indicating that T. thymallus has strikingly low levels of intrapopulation genetic diversity as compared with other freshwater fish species. Accordingly, as indicated by analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), only 49.1-58.0% of the total grayling microsatellite diversity resided within populations. A latitudinal genetic diversity gradient, potentially resulting from glaciation-mediated founder events, was not evident. Alternatively, it is possible that grayling display limited dispersal behaviour/capability, leading to low long-term effective population sizes and, consequently, depauperate intrapopulation polymorphism. These findings have implications for conservation of T. thymallus. Importantly, they exemplify that microsatellites can be highly informative for intraspecific phylogeography studies dealing with substantial divergence scales.

Self-organized dynamics in spatially structured populations.

Self-organization and pattern formation represent the emergence of order in temporal and spatial processes. Self-organization in population ecology is gaining attention due to the recent advances concerning temporal fluctuations in the population size of dispersal-linked subunits. We shall report that spatially structured models of population renewal promote the emergence of a complex power law order in spatial population dynamics. We analyse a variety of population models showing that self-organization can be identified as a temporal match in population dynamics among local units, and how the synchrony changes in time. Our theoretical results are concordant with analyses of population data on the Canada lynx.

Is the impact of environmental noise visible in the dynamics of age-structured populations?

Climate change has ignited lively research into its impact on various population-level processes. The research agenda in ecology says that some of the fluctuations in population size are accountable for by the external noise (e.g. weather) modulating the dynamics of populations. We obeyed the agenda by assuming population growth after a resource-limited Leslie matrix model in an age-structured population. The renewal process was disturbed by superimposing noise on the development of numbers in one or several age groups. We constructed models for iteroparous and semelparous breeders so that, for both categories, the population growth rate was matching. We analysed how the modulated population dynamics correlates with the noise signal with different time-lags. No significant correlations were observed for semelparous breeders, whereas for iteroparous breeders high correlations were frequently observed with time-lags of 71 year or longer. However, the latter occurs under red-coloured noise and for low growth rates when the disturbance is on the youngest age group only. It is laborious to find any clear signs of the (red) noise- and age group-specific fluctuations if the disturbance influences older age groups only. These results cast doubts on the possibility of detecting the signature of external disturbance after it has modulated temporal fluctuations in age-structured populations.

From arctic lemmings to adaptive dynamics: Charles Elton's legacy in population ecology.

We shall examine the impact of Charles S. Elton's 1924 article on periodic fluctuations in animal populations on the development of modern population ecology. We argue that his impact has been substantial and that during the past 75 years of research on multi-annual periodic fluctuations in numbers of voles, lemmings, hares, lynx and game animals he has contributed much to the contemporary understanding of the causes and consequences of population regulation. Elton was convinced that the cause of the regular fluctuations was climatic variation. To support this conclusion, he examined long-term population data then available. Despite his firm belief in a climatic cause of the self-repeating periodic dynamics which many species display, Elton was insightful and far-sighted enough to outline many of the other hypotheses since put forward as an explanation for the enigmatic long-term dynamics of some animal populations. An interesting, but largely neglected aspect in Elton's paper is that it ends with speculation regarding the evolutionary consequences of periodic population fluctuations. The modern understanding of these issues will also be scrutinised here. In population ecology, Elton's 1924 paper has spawned a whole industry of research on populations displaying multi-annual periodicity. Despite the efforts of numerous research teams and individuals focusing on the origins of multi-annual population cycles, and despite the early availability of different explanatory hypotheses, we are still lacking rigorous tests of some of these hypotheses and, consequently, a consensus of the causes of periodic fluctuations in animal populations. Although Elton would have been happy to see so much effort spent on cyclic populations, we also argue that it is unfortunate if this focus on a special case of population dynamics should distract our attention from more general problems in population and community dynamics.

Population variability in space and time.

One of the most ubiquitous phenomena of all natural populations is their variability in numbers in space and time. However, there are notable differences among populations in the way the population size fluctuates. One of the major challenges in population and community ecology is to explain and understand this variety and to find possible underlying rules that might be modified from case-to-case. Population variability also has a spatial component because fluctuations are often synchronized over relatively large distances. Recently, this has led to growing interest in how 'internal' (density-dependent) processes interact with 'external' factors such as environmental variability.

Genetic lineages and postglacial colonization of grayling (Thymallus thymallus, Salmonidae) in Europe, as revealed by mitochondrial DNA analyses.

In stark contrast to other species within the Salmonidae family, phylogeographic information on European grayling, Thymallus thymallus, is virtually nonexistent. In this paper, we utilized mitochondrial DNA polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (mtDNA PCR-RFLP) and sequence variation to infer the postglacial dispersal routes of T. thymallus into and within northern Europe, and to locate geographically, potential evolutionarily distinct populations. Mitochondrial analyses revealed a total of 27 T. thymallus haplotypes which clustered into three distinct lineages. Average pairwise interlineage divergence was four and nine times higher than average intralineage divergence for RFLP and sequence data, respectively. Two European grayling individuals from the easternmost sample in Russia exhibited haplotypes more genetically diverged from any T. thymallus haplotype than T. arcticus haplotype, and suggested that hybridization/introgression zone of these two sister species may extend much further west than previously thought. Geographic division of the lineages was generally very clear with northern Europe comprising of two genetically differentiated areas: (i) Finland, Estonia and north-western Russia; and (ii) central Germany, Poland and western Fennoscandia. Average interpopulation divergence in North European T. thymallus was 10 times higher than that observed in a recent mtDNA study of North American T. arcticus. We conclude that (i) North European T. thymallus populations have survived dramatic Pleistocene temperature oscillations and originate from ancient eastern and central European refugia; (ii) genetic divergence of population groups within northern Europe is substantial and geographically distinct; and (iii) the remainder of Europe harbours additional differentiated assemblages that likely descend from a Danubian refugium. These findings should provide useful information for developing appropriate conservation strategies for European grayling and exemplify a case with a clear need for multinational co-operation for managing and conserving biodiversity.

Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics.

Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view. We followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated by the external noise.

Does evolution of iteroparous and semelparous reproduction call for spatially structured systems?

A persistent question in the evolution of life histories is the fitness trade-off between reproducing only once (semelparity) in a lifetime or reproducing repeated times in different seasons (iteroparity). The problem can be formulated into a research agenda by assuming that one reproductive strategy is resident (has already evolved) and by asking whether invasion (evolution) of an alternative reproductive strategy is possible. For a spatially nonstructured system, Bulmer (1994) derived the relationship v + PA < 1 (PA is adult survival; vbS and bS are offspring numbers for iteroparous and semelparous breeding strategies, respectively) at which semelparous population cannot be invaded by an iteroparous mutant. When the inequality is changed to v + PA > 1, invasion of a semelparous mutant is not possible. From the inequalities, it is easy to see that possibilities for evolutionary establishment of a novel reproductive strategy are rather narrow. We extended the evolutionary scenario into a spatially structured system with dispersal linkage among the subunits. In this domain, a rare reproductive strategy can easily invade a population dominated by a resident reproductive strategy. The parameter space enabling invasion is far more generous with spatially structured evolutionary scenarios than in a spatially nonstructured system.

Producers, scroungers and the price of a free meal

In social foraging, scroungers take a disproportionately large share of the food found relative to their own food-searching efforts, while producers find more food than they manage to monopolize. We present a model of social foraging acknowledging the finder's advantage and foraging role asymmetries among individuals but incorporating the possibility that producers and scroungers differ in vigilance level and in vulnerability to predators. This allows simultaneous examination of both foraging benefits and anti-predatory aspects of grouping behaviour. Instead of seeking for equal payoff conditions, we first look for groups in which foraging character combinations and anti-predatory properties of producers and scroungers minimize the phenotype-specific predation hazard over food-intake rate, Ri/Ii, that is, fixed phenotype Ri/Ii minima. In the second approach, we allow individuals to change their foraging status to achieve lower Ri/Ii and look for combinations where it no longer pays for either producers or scroungers to change their roles, that is, evolutionarily stable group compositions, ESS. Various character combinations allow the phenotype-specific minima. In most cases, however, producers' and scroungers' minima are achievable only in different group compositions. The ESS combinations of producers and scroungers deviate widely from those combinations yielding phenotype-specific minima of Ri/Ii. If individuals are allowed to be flexible in adopting either a producer or a scrounger role, ESS group compositions will emerge, even though they are more expensive for both producers and scroungers in terms of Ri/Ii than group compositions yielding the phenotype-specific Ri/Ii minima. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Competition in a group of equal foragers.

Using techniques from renewal process theory, we build a stochastic model for gain accumulation in a group of equal competitors foraging in a patchy environment. The model for gain of the individuals is based on the waiting times between subsequent prey encounters by the group. These waiting times depend on the number of foragers in the group. A single parameter of this dependency encompasses a variety of foraging scenarios, from co-operation to scramble. With constant patch size, correlations between gains of any pair of foragers are negative. This dependency is most intense in small groups. Increased variation in patch size makes correlations in gains between group members positive irrespective of the group size. For a solitary forager, variance in gain approaches zero with increasing time in the patch. For an individual member in a group, variance grows monotonically. Thus, depending on the patch departure rule controlling the time to be spent in the patch, solitary foragers may have a smaller variance in gain than members in a group. As solitary foragers also potentially harvest all prey in the patch, it is hard to believe that grouping behavior would evolve solely on the basis of foraging.

The spatial dimension in population fluctuations

Theoretical research into the dynamics of coupled populations has suggested a rich ensemble of spatial structures that are created and maintained either by external disturbances or self-reinforcing interactions among the populations. Long-term data of the Canadian lynx from eight Canadian provinces display large-scale spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. The synchronous dynamics are not time-invariant, however, as pairs of populations that are initially in step may drift out of phase and back into phase. These observations are in agreement with predictions of a spatially-linked population model and support contemporary population ecology theory.

Population dynamics and the colour of environmental noise.

The effect of red, white and blue environmental noise on discrete-time population dynamics is analyzed. The coloured noise is superimposed on Moran-Ricker and Maynard Smith dynamics, the resulting power spectra are less than examined. Time series dominated by short- and long-term fluctuations are said to be blue and red, respectively. In the stable range of the Moran-Ricker dynamics, environmental noise of any colour will make population dynamics red or blue depending the intrinsic growth rate. Thus, telling apart the colour of the noise from the colour of the population dynamics may not be possible. Population dynamics subjected to red and blue environmental noises show, respectively, more red or blue power spectra than those subjected to white noise. The sensitivity to differences in the noise colours decreases with increasing complexity and ultimately disappears in the chaotic range of the population dynamics. These findings are duplicated with the Maynard Smith model for high growth rates when the strength of density dependence changes. However, for low growth rates the power spectra of the population dynamics with noise are red in stable, periodic and aperiodic ranges irrespective of the noise colour. Since chaotic population fluctuations may show blue spectra in the deterministic case, this implies that blue deterministic chaos may become red under any colour of the noise.

Structural characterisation of acetaldehyde adducts formed by a synthetic peptide mimicking the N-terminus of the hemoglobin beta-chain under reducing and nonreducing conditions.

This work was carried out to elucidate the structures resulting from acetaldehyde-induced modifications at the haemoglobin beta-chain N-terminal residues under different experimental conditions. A synthetic peptide (Val-His-Leu-Thr-Pro-Glu-Cys) of m/z 798, which represents the six N-terminal residues of the haemoglobin beta-chain N-terminus with an additional C-terminal cysteine, was used as a model compound. Peptide-acetaldehyde adducts were separated by reverse-phase HPLC. Fast-atom-bombardment MS and linked-scan (B/E) spectra were used to study adduct structures. Under nonreducing conditions at pH 7.4 (1:10 peptide/acetaldehyde molar ratio), two types of adducts of m/z 824 were formed, both with modifications at the N-terminal valine. These two adducts were shown to be a Schiff base, and a cyclic 2-methyl-imidazolidine-4-one. The 2-methyl-imidazolidine-4-one adduct was demonstrated to be formed via the Schiff base and to undergo dissociation gradually after 24 h. Reducing conditions at pH 7.4 (peptide /acetaldehyde molar ratio of 1:1 with 20 mM NaCNBH3) resulted in the formation of an adduct of m/z 826, which was shown to be an N-ethylated adduct of valine. A small amount of nonreduced adducts were also formed under these conditions. Reducing conditions at pH 9.0 (1:10 peptide/acetaldehyde molar ratio with 20 mM NaCNBH3) yielded two secondary, i.e. diethylated (m/z 854), products very rapidly. The cysteine residue of the peptide was not found to form an adduct with acetaldehyde under physiological pH.

Competition versus cooperation: success of individuals foraging alone and in groups.

Using a variant of information-sharing models, we examine the pros and cons of group foraging against the alternative of staying alone. Models of this category-assuming that in groups food finding by one results in food sharing by many-conclude that patch-finding rate improves with group size. In our modification interference among individuals reduces pooled searching efficiency of the group. We introduce a term, s, the probability of an individual's being among the ones sharing the food in a patch found by the group. Not unexpectedly, these fine-tunings prolong food-finding rates that push individuals in the group toward the foraging status of a solitary individual. With phenotype-related differences in s, foraging in groups turns out to be a less profitable option the lower an individual is ranked in the group. The model suggests that, in terms of food finding, individuals have to pay attention to their performance in the foraging group. The option of foraging alone may easily be a better strategy than that of a low-ranking individual foraging in a group. If so, the model also suggests groups assorted by phenotype.

Carbon dioxide output in the respiration of three Pisidium species (Bivalvia, Sphaeriidae).

The carbon dioxide output in respiration of Pisidium casertanum, P. henslowanum and P. conventus was studied in the laboratory. A closedbottle method was used, and the amount of dissolved inorganic carbon was measured with an infrared gas analyser. The mean value of the constant b in equation R=aW b, where R is the respiration rate and W the ash-free dry weight of the animal, was ca. 0.75 in both the eurytherm P. casertanum and the cold-stenotherm P. conventus at five temperatures, but the temperature dependence of b was opposite in these species. The temperature dependence of metabolism increased with increasing size in P. casertanum and P. henslowanum but decreased in P. conventus. A 'reversed acclimatization pattern' was found, where the metabolism rate and its temperature dependence was lower in the cold-adapted stenotherm species.