Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. METHODS: We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. RESULTS: Our analysis demonstrated that the pre-national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.

Percolation in networks with local homeostatic plasticity.

Percolation is a process that impairs network connectedness by deactivating links or nodes. This process features a phase transition that resembles paradigmatic critical transitions in epidemic spreading, biological networks, traffic and transportation systems. Some biological systems, such as networks of neural cells, actively respond to percolation-like damage, which enables these structures to maintain their function after degradation and aging. Here we study percolation in networks that actively respond to link damage by adopting a mechanism resembling synaptic scaling in neurons. We explain critical transitions in such active networks and show that these structures are more resilient to damage as they are able to maintain a stronger connectedness and ability to spread information. Moreover, we uncover the role of local rescaling strategies in biological networks and indicate a possibility of designing smart infrastructures with improved robustness to perturbations.

Fragility and anomalous susceptibility of weakly interacting networks.

Percolation is a fundamental concept that has brought new understanding of the robustness properties of complex systems. Here we consider percolation on weakly interacting networks, that is, network layers coupled together by much fewer interlinks than the connections within each layer. For these kinds of structures, both continuous and abrupt phase transitions are observed in the size of the giant component. The continuous (second-order) transition corresponds to the formation of a giant cluster inside one layer and has a well-defined percolation threshold. The abrupt transition instead corresponds to the merger of coexisting giant clusters among different layers and is characterized by a remarkable uncertainty in the percolation threshold, which in turns causes an anomalous behavior of the observed susceptibility. We develop a simple mathematical model able to describe this phenomenon, using a susceptibility measure that defines the range where the abrupt transition is more likely to occur. Finite-size scaling analysis in the abrupt region supports the hypothesis of a genuine first-order phase transition.

Multiple structural transitions in interacting networks.

Many real-world systems can be modeled as interconnected multilayer networks, namely, a set of networks interacting with each other. Here, we present a perturbative approach to study the properties of a general class of interconnected networks as internetwork interactions are established. We reveal multiple structural transitions for the algebraic connectivity of such systems, between regimes in which each network layer keeps its independent identity or drives diffusive processes over the whole system, thus generalizing previous results reporting a single transition point. Furthermore, we show that, at first order in perturbation theory, the growth of the algebraic connectivity of each layer depends only on the degree configuration of the interaction network (projected on the respective Fiedler vector), and not on the actual interaction topology. Our findings can have important implications in the design of robust interconnected networked systems, particularly in the presence of network layers whose integrity is more crucial for the functioning of the entire system. We finally show results of perturbation theory applied to the adjacency matrix of the interconnected network, which can be useful to characterize percolation processes on such systems.