The work programme of NERIS in post-accident recovery.

NERIS is the European platform on preparedness for nuclear and radiological emergency response and recovery. Created in 2010 with 57 organisations from 28 different countries, the objectives of the platform are to: improve the effectiveness and coherency of current approaches to preparedness; identify further development needs; improve 'know how' and technical expertise; and establish a forum for dialogue and methodological development. The NERIS Strategic Research Agenda is now structured with three main challenges: (i) radiological impact assessments during all phases of nuclear and radiological events; (ii) countermeasures and countermeasure strategies in emergency and recovery, decision support, and disaster informatics; and (iii) setting up a multi-faceted framework for preparedness for emergency response and recovery. The Fukushima accident has highlighted some key issues for further consideration in NERIS research activities, including: the importance of transparency of decision-making processes at local, regional, and national levels; the key role of access to environmental monitoring; the importance of dealing with uncertainties in assessment and management of the different phases of the accident; the use of modern social media in the exchange of information; the role of stakeholder involvement processes in both emergency and recovery situations; considerations of societal, ethical, and economic aspects; and the reinforcement of education and training for various actors. This paper emphasises the main issues at stake for NERIS for post-accident management.

Iterative ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric dispersion in nuclear accidents: An application to Kincaid tracer experiment.

Information about atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides is vitally important for planning effective countermeasures during nuclear accidents. Results of dispersion models have high spatial and temporal resolutions, but they are not accurate enough due to the uncertain source term and the errors in meteorological data. Environmental measurements are more reliable, but they are scarce and unable to give forecasts. In this study, our newly proposed iterative ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation scheme is used to combine model results and environmental measurements. The system is thoroughly validated against the observations in the Kincaid tracer experiment. The initial first-guess emissions are assumed to be six magnitudes underestimated. The iterative EnKF system rapidly corrects the errors in the emission rate and wind data, thereby significantly improving the model results (>80% reduction of the normalized mean square error, r=0.71). Sensitivity tests are conducted to investigate the influence of meteorological parameters. The results indicate that the system is sensitive to boundary layer height. When the heights from the numerical weather prediction model are used, only 62.5% of reconstructed emission rates are within a factor two of the actual emissions. This increases to 87.5% when the heights derived from the on-site observations are used.

Upward movement of tritium from contaminated groundwaters: a numerical analysis.

This paper describes a research-oriented modelling exercise that addresses the problem of assessing the movement of tritium from a contaminated perched aquifer to the land surface. Participants were provided with information on water table depth, soil characteristics, hourly meteorological and evapotranspiration data. They were asked to predict the upward migration of tritium through the unsaturated soil into the atmosphere. Eight different numerical models were used to calculate the movement of tritium. The modelling results agree within a factor of two, if very small time and space increments are used. The agreement is not so good when the near-surface soil becomes dry. The modelling of the alternate upward and downward transport of tritium close to the ground surface generally requires rather complex models and detailed input because tritium concentration varies sharply over short distances and is very sensitive to many interactive factors including rainfall amount, evapotranspiration rate, rooting depth and water table position.

Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies.

This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems.