Infections increase the risk of decompensation and death in patients with early alcohol-related liver disease.

Background & Aims: Infections are frequent in patients with cirrhosis and worsen prognosis. We evaluated the incidence of infections and their impact on decompensation and death in patients with early alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) during long-term follow-up. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study of patients in secondary care with a history of excess alcohol intake, no prior decompensation, and with liver biopsies along with clinical investigations conducted at baseline. During follow-up, we reviewed the patients' electronic healthcare records for cases of infections, hospitalizations, transient elastography measurements, decompensations, all-cause mortality, and alcohol intake. Results: We included 461 patients with a mean age of 56±10 years (76% males; fibrosis stage F0-1/F2/F3-4 = 259/107/93 [56%/23%/20%]). During a median follow-up of 4.5 years (IQR 2.9-6.3), 134 patients (29%) developed a total of 312 infections, most frequently pneumonia (106/312, 34%) and urinary tract infections (57/312, 18%). Excessive alcohol intake during follow-up, smoking ≥30 pack years, MELD score and elevated liver stiffness during follow-up were independent predictors of infections. Patients who developed at least one infection had a significantly increased risk of subsequent decompensation (hazard ratio 4.98, 95% CI 2.47-10.03) and death (hazard ratio 8.24, 95% CI 4.65-14.59). Infections increased the risk of decompensation and death independently of baseline fibrosis stage, age, gender, and MELD score. Conclusions: Almost one-third of patients with early ALD develop an infection, which worsens their prognosis by increasing the risk of decompensation and death. The risk of infections increases with liver disease severity and ongoing harmful use of alcohol. Impact and implications: This study reveals that infections significantly worsen the prognosis of patients with early alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), increasing the likelihood of decompensation and death by up to eight times. These findings, pertinent to healthcare providers, researchers, and policymakers, emphasize the importance of early prevention and management of infections in patients with ALD, even those in early stages who may be asymptomatic. It was observed that nearly one-third of patients with early-stage ALD developed infections over 4.5 years, with risk factors including alcohol overuse, smoking, and higher MELD scores. The research underscores the critical need to incorporate these insights into clinical practice and public health policies to improve patient outcomes and mitigate the impact of infections in patients with ALD.

Validation of scores of PRO-C3 to predict liver-related events in alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk prediction in alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) is an unmet need. We aimed to assess PRO-C3 models to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with a history of excessive alcohol use without an established diagnosis of chronic liver disease. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 462 patients with ArLD, split into a derivation cohort of 221 secondary care patients and a validation cohort of 241 primary care patients. Baseline variables, including fibrogenesis marker PRO-C3, were used to develop a prediction model. Prognostic accuracy was compared to enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF), fibrosis-4-index (FIB-4), transient elastography (TE) and ADAPT. RESULTS: In the derivation and validation cohorts, 67 (30%) and 19 (8%) experienced an LRE during a median follow-up of 5.2 years (IQR: 3.2-6.8) and 4.0 years (IQR: 2.7-5.6). On top of PRO-C3 and ADAPT score, we generated a model (ALPACA) of independent predictors of LREs (PRO-C3, AST/ALT, platelets). ALPACA had high prognostic accuracy with a C-statistic of 0.85 in the derivation cohort, comparable to ELF (0.83) and TE (0.84) and significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.78), PRO-C3 (0.80) and ADAPT (0.81). In the validation cohort, all tests had comparable C-statistics. Compared to low-risk patients (ALPACA ≤11), high-risk patients (>11) had a subhazard ratio for LREs of 12.6 (95% CI 5.9-26.8, p < .001) and higher cumulative incidence (57% vs. 7%, p < .001; derivation cohort). We observed similar subhazard ratio in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: PRO-C3-based scores are reliable tools to predict LREs in ArLD patients and are suitable for risk stratification in primary and secondary care.

Rifaximin-α for liver fibrosis in patients with alcohol-related liver disease (GALA-RIF): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is the leading cause of liver-related mortality worldwide. The gut-liver axis is considered a key driver in alcohol-related liver disease. Rifaximin-α improves gut-barrier function and reduces systemic inflammation in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of rifaximin-α with placebo in patients with alcohol-related liver disease. METHODS: GALA-RIF was an investigator-initiated, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-centre, phase 2 trial done at Odense University Hospital in Denmark. Eligible participants were adults (aged 18-75 years) who had current or previous alcohol overuse (at least 1 year with ≥24 g of alcohol per day for women and ≥36 g of alcohol per day for men), biopsy-proven alcohol-related liver disease, and no previous hepatic decompensation. Patients were randomly allocated (1:1) through a web-based randomisation system to receive oral rifaximin-α (550 mg) twice daily or matched placebo for 18 months. Randomisation was done in blocks of four and stratified according to fibrosis stage and alcohol abstinence. Participants, sponsor, investigators, and nurses involved in the study were masked to the randomisation outcome. The primary endpoint was a histological decrease from baseline to 18-month treatment of at least one fibrosis stage, according to the Kleiner fibrosis score. We also assessed the number of patients with progression by at least one fibrosis stage from baseline to 18 months. Primary analyses were done in the per-protocol and modified intention-to-treat populations; safety was assessed in the full intention-to-treat population. The per-protocol population was defined as all randomly assigned patients who did not present serious protocol violations, who ingested at least 75% of the treatment, and who were not withdrawn from the study due to non-adherence (interruption of treatment for 4 weeks or more). Participants receiving at least one dose of the intervention were included in the modified intention-to-treat analyses. This completed trial is registered with EudraCT, number 2014-001856-51. FINDINGS: Between March 23, 2015, and Nov 10, 2021, we screened 1886 consecutive patients with a history of excessive alcohol consumption and no previous hepatic decompensation, of whom 136 were randomly assigned to either rifaximin-α (n=68) or placebo (n=68). All patients were White (100%), 114 (84%) were men, and 22 (16%) were women. 133 (98%) patients received at least one dose of the intervention and were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis; 108 (79%) completed the trial per protocol. In the per-protocol analysis, 14 (26%) of 54 patients in the rifaximin-α group and 15 (28%) of 54 patients in the placebo group had a decrease in fibrosis stage after 18 months (odds ratio 1·10 [95% CI 0·45-2·68]; p=0·83). In the modified intention-to-treat analysis, 15 (22%) of 67 patients in the rifaximin-α group and 15 (23%) of 66 patients in the placebo group had a decrease in fibrosis stage at 18 months (1·05 [0·45-2·44]; p=0·91). In the per-protocol analysis, increase in fibrosis stage occurred in 13 (24%) patients in the rifaximin-α group and 23 (43%) patients in the placebo group (0·42 [0·18-0·98]; p=0·044). In the modified intention-to-treat analysis, increase in fibrosis stage occurred in 13 (19%) patients in the rifaximin-α group and 23 (35%) patients in the placebo group (0·45 [0·20-1·02]; p=0·055). The number of patients with adverse events (48 [71%] of 68 patients in the rifaximin-α group; 53 [78%] of 68 in the placebo group) and serious adverse events (14 [21%] in the rifaximin-α group; 12 [18%] in the placebo group) was similar between the groups. No serious adverse events were deemed related to treatment. Three patients died during the trial, but none of the deaths were considered treatment related. INTERPRETATION: In patients with alcohol-related liver disease, rifaximin-α might reduce progression of liver fibrosis. These findings warrant confirmation in a multicentre phase 3 trial. FUNDING: The EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program and The Novo Nordisk Foundation.

Sphingolipids Are Depleted in Alcohol-Related Liver Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol disturbs hepatic lipid synthesis and transport, but the role of lipid dysfunction in alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is unclear. In this biopsy-controlled, prospective, observational study, we characterized the liver and plasma lipidomes in patients with early ALD. METHODS: We performed mass spectrometry-based lipidomics of paired liver and plasma samples from 315 patients with ALD and of plasma from 51 matched healthy controls. We associated lipid levels with histologic fibrosis, inflammation, and steatosis with correction for multiple testing and adjustment for confounders. We further investigated sphingolipid regulation by means of quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction sequencing of microRNA, prediction of liver-related events, and tested causality with Mendelian randomization. RESULTS: We detected 198 lipids in the liver and 236 lipids in the circulation from 18 lipid classes. Most sphingolipids (sphingomyelins and ceramides) and phosphocholines were co-down-regulated in both liver and plasma, where lower abundance correlated with higher fibrosis stage. Sphingomyelins showed the most pronounced negative correlation to fibrosis, mirrored by negative correlations in both liver and plasma with hepatic inflammation. Reduced sphingomyelins predicted future liver-related events. This seemed to be characteristic of "pure ALD," as sphingomyelin levels were higher in patients with concomitant metabolic syndrome and ALD/nonalcoholic fatty liver disease overlap. Mendelian randomization in FinnGen and UK Biobanks indicated ALD as the cause of low sphingomyelins, and alcohol use disorder did not correlate with genetic susceptibility to low sphingomyelin levels. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol-related liver fibrosis is characterized by selective and progressive lipid depletion in liver and blood, particularly sphingomyelins, which also associates with progression to liver-related events.

Effect of Calorie-Unrestricted Low-Carbohydrate, High-Fat Diet Versus High-Carbohydrate, Low-Fat Diet on Type 2 Diabetes and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease : A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear if a low-carbohydrate, high-fat (LCHF) diet is a possible treatment strategy for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and the effect on nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has not been investigated. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of a calorie-unrestricted LCHF diet, with no intention of weight loss, on T2DM and NAFLD compared with a high-carbohydrate, low-fat (HCLF) diet. DESIGN: 6-month randomized controlled trial with a 3-month follow-up. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03068078). SETTING: Odense University Hospital in Denmark from November 2016 until June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: 165 participants with T2DM. INTERVENTION: Two calorie-unrestricted diets: LCHF diet with 50 to 60 energy percent (E%) fat, less than 20E% carbohydrates, and 25E% to 30E% proteins and HCLF diet with 50E% to 60E% carbohydrates, 20E% to 30E% fats, and 20E% to 25E% proteins. MEASUREMENTS: Glycemic control, serum lipid levels, metabolic markers, and liver biopsies to assess NAFLD. RESULTS: The mean age was 56 years (SD, 10), and 58% were women. Compared with the HCLF diet, participants on the LCHF diet had greater improvements in hemoglobin A1c (mean difference in change, -6.1 mmol/mol [95% CI, -9.2 to -3.0 mmol/mol] or -0.59% [CI, -0.87% to -0.30%]) and lost more weight (mean difference in change, -3.8 kg [CI, -6.2 to -1.4 kg]). Both groups had higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and lower triglycerides at 6 months. Changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were less favorable in the LCHF diet group than in the HCLF diet group (mean difference in change, 0.37 mmol/L [CI, 0.17 to 0.58 mmol/L] or 14.3 mg/dL [CI, 6.6 to 22.4 mg/dL]). No statistically significant between-group changes were detected in the assessment of NAFLD. Changes were not sustained at the 9-month follow-up. LIMITATION: Open-label trial, self-reported adherence, unintended weight loss, and lack of adjustment for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSION: Persons with T2DM on a 6-month, calorie-unrestricted, LCHF diet had greater clinically meaningful improvements in glycemic control and weight compared with those on an HCLF diet, but the changes were not sustained 3 months after intervention. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Novo Nordisk Foundation.

Serum keratin-18 detects hepatic inflammation and predicts progression in compensated alcohol-associated liver disease.

Alcohol-associated liver fibrosis accumulates over decades, driven by hepatic inflammation and cell death. We investigated the diagnostic accuracy of keratin-18 degradation, measured using serum M30 and M65 levels, and the ActiTest for hepatic inflammatory activity in patients with compensated alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). Furthermore, we evaluated the prognostic accuracy of markers for liver-related events and all-cause mortality. All findings were compared with routine liver function tests: Aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and gamma-glutamyltransferase. Our prospective, biopsy-controlled, single-center study included 265 patients with ongoing or prior excessive alcohol intake, representing the full spectrum of compensated ALD. We defined hepatic inflammatory activity as a combined score of lobular inflammation and ballooning. For severe hepatic inflammatory activity (n = 40), we found excellent diagnostic accuracy for M30 (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC] = 0.90), M65 (AUROC = 0.86), and AST (AUROC = 0.86). Elevated M30 (M30 > 240 U/L) had the highest positive predictive value (PPV) and specificity, significantly higher than M65, ActiTest and ALT, but not AST (M30: sensitivity = 83%, specificity = 82%, positive predictive value = 45%, negative predictive value = 95%). Patients were followed up for 1445 patient-years. All markers, except for ALT, significantly predicted liver-related events and all-cause mortality. After adjusting for advanced fibrosis, drinking behavior and body mass index, M30 and M65 remained significant predictors of liver-related events, whereas M30 and AST were significant predictors of all-cause mortality. Conclusion: M30 and AST accurately detect severe hepatic inflammatory activity in patients with compensated ALD. M30 was the only significant predictor of both liver-related events and all-cause mortality after adjusting for advanced fibrosis, body mass index, and drinking behavior at inclusion.

Noninvasive proteomic biomarkers for alcohol-related liver disease.

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is a major cause of liver-related death worldwide, yet understanding of the three key pathological features of the disease-fibrosis, inflammation and steatosis-remains incomplete. Here, we present a paired liver-plasma proteomics approach to infer molecular pathophysiology and to explore the diagnostic and prognostic capability of plasma proteomics in 596 individuals (137 controls and 459 individuals with ALD), 360 of whom had biopsy-based histological assessment. We analyzed all plasma samples and 79 liver biopsies using a mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics workflow with short gradient times and an enhanced, data-independent acquisition scheme in only 3 weeks of measurement time. In plasma and liver biopsy tissues, metabolic functions were downregulated whereas fibrosis-associated signaling and immune responses were upregulated. Machine learning models identified proteomics biomarker panels that detected significant fibrosis (receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve (ROC-AUC), 0.92, accuracy, 0.82) and mild inflammation (ROC-AUC, 0.87, accuracy, 0.79) more accurately than existing clinical assays (DeLong's test, P < 0.05). These biomarker panels were found to be accurate in prediction of future liver-related events and all-cause mortality, with a Harrell's C-index of 0.90 and 0.79, respectively. An independent validation cohort reproduced the diagnostic model performance, laying the foundation for routine MS-based liver disease testing.

Metabolic and Genetic Risk Factors Are the Strongest Predictors of Severity of Alcohol-Related Liver Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individual risk for developing alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) varies greatly. We hypothesized that metabolic risk factors and genetic polymorphisms predict severity of ALD. METHODS: Biopsy-controlled, cross-sectional study in patients with a history of excessive drinking. We measured the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), plasma triglycerides, high- and low-density lipoproteins (HDL, LDL), and total cholesterol. Moreover, we genotyped four single nucleotide polymorphisms in PNPLA3 (rs738409C>G), TM6SF2 (rs58542926C>T), MBOAT7 (rs641738C>T), and HSD17B13 (rs72613567T>TA). We assessed predictors of higher fibrosis stage using multivariable ordered logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 325 included patients, 25% had severe fibrosis or cirrhosis and 59% had HOMA-IR ≥2.5. HOMA-IR increased for each fibrosis stage, while there was a similar decrease in LDL and total cholesterol. Individuals with risk variant PNPLA3 rs738409-G or TM6SF2 rs58542926-T had higher fibrosis stage. In multivariable regression, HOMA-IR ≥2.5 (OR = 3.04, 95% CI 1.90-4.87), LDL <2.60 mmol/L (OR = 2.05, 95% CI 1.33-3.16), TM6SF2 rs58542926-T (OR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.17-3.37), age above 50 years (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.03-2.70), and PNPLA3 rs738409-G (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.11-2.12) independently predicted higher fibrosis stage. Independent predictors of hepatic inflammatory activity were HOMA-IR, active drinking, age, and PNPLA3 risk variant. Active drinking, elevated triglycerides, and PNPLA3 risk variant predicted steatosis. CONCLUSIONS: Insulin resistance is the strongest predictor of liver fibrosis stage and hepatic inflammation in patients with alcohol-related liver disease. Genetic susceptibility further aggravates this risk. These data highlight the clinical value of detailed metabolic and genetic profiling of patients with excessive alcohol use.

Two-dimensional shear wave elastography predicts survival in advanced chronic liver disease.

OBJECTIVE: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a tool used to screen for significant fibrosis and portal hypertension. The aim of this retrospective multicentre study was to develop an easy tool using LSM for clinical outcomes in advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) patients. DESIGN: This international multicentre cohort study included a derivation ACLD patient cohort with valid two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) results. Clinical and laboratory parameters at baseline and during follow-up were recorded. LSM by transient elastography (TE) was also recorded if available. The primary outcome was overall mortality. The secondary outcome was the development of first/further decompensation. RESULTS: After screening 2148 patients (16 centres), 1827 patients (55 years, 62.4% men) were included in the 2D-SWE cohort, with median liver SWE (L-SWE) 11.8 kPa and a model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score of 8. Combination of MELD score and L-SWE predict independently of mortality (AUC 0.8). L-SWE cut-off at ≥20 kPa combined with MELD ≥10 could stratify the risk of mortality and first/further decompensation in ACLD patients. The 2-year mortality and decompensation rates were 36.9% and 61.8%, respectively, in the 305 (18.3%) high-risk patients (with L-SWE ≥20 kPa and MELD ≥10), while in the 944 (56.6%) low-risk patients, these were 1.1% and 3.5%, respectively. Importantly, this M10LS20 algorithm was validated by TE-based LSM and in an additional cohort of 119 patients with valid point shear SWE-LSM. CONCLUSION: The M10LS20 algorithm allows risk stratification of patients with ACLD. Patients with L-SWE ≥20 kPa and MELD ≥10 should be followed closely and receive intensified care, while patients with low risk may be managed at longer intervals.

Prognostic performance of 7 biomarkers compared to liver biopsy in early alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol is the most common cause of liver-related mortality and morbidity. We therefore aimed to assess and compare the prognostic performance of elastography and blood-based markers to predict time to the first liver-related event, severe infection, and all-cause mortality in patients with a history of excess drinking. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study in patients with early, compensated alcohol-related liver disease. At baseline, we obtained a liver biopsy, transient elastography (TE), 2-dimensional shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE), enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF), FibroTest, fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), non-alcoholic fatty liver fibrosis score (NFS) and Forns index. We compared C-statistics and time-dependent AUC for prognostication. We used validated cut-off points to create 3 risk groups for each test: low, intermediate and high risk. RESULTS: We followed 462 patients for a median of 49 months (IQR 31-70). Median age was 57 years, 76% were males, 20% had advanced fibrosis. Eighty-four patients (18%) developed a liver-related event after a median of 18 months (7-34). TE had the highest prognostic accuracy, with a C-statistic of 0.876, and time-dependent AUC at 5 years of 0.889, comparable to 2D-SWE and ELF. TE, ELF and 2D-SWE outperformed FibroTest, FIB4, NFS, Forns index and biopsy-verified fibrosis stage. Compared to patients with TE <10 kPa, the hazard ratios for liver-related events for TE 10-15 kPa were 8.1 (3.2-20.4), and 27.9 (13.8-56.8) for TE >15 kPa. Periods of excessive drinking during follow-up increased the risk of progressing to liver-related events, except for patients in the low-risk groups. CONCLUSION: TE, ELF and 2D-SWE are highly accurate prognostic markers in patients with alcohol-related liver disease. Easy-to-use cut-offs can distinguish between substantially different risk profiles. LAY SUMMARY: Alcohol is the leading cause of death and illness due to liver disease. In this study, we assessed the ability of biomarkers to predict the risk of developing symptomatic liver disease in patients with early stages of alcohol-related liver disease. We found that several tests accurately predicted the risk of liver-related events such as ascites, esophageal varices and hepatic encephalopathy during an average follow-up of 4.1 years. Liver stiffness measurements by ultrasound elastography and the enhanced liver fibrosis test performed best. By using them, we were able to stratify patients into 3 groups with significantly different risks.

A Dynamic Aspartate-to-Alanine Aminotransferase Ratio Provides Valid Predictions of Incident Severe Liver Disease.

The aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR) is associated with liver fibrosis, but its predictive performance is suboptimal. We hypothesized that the association between AAR and liver disease depends on absolute transaminase levels and developed and validated a model to predict liver-related outcomes in the general population. A Cox regression model based on age, AAR, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level (dynamic AAR [dAAR]) using restricted cubic splines was developed in Finnish population-based health-examination surveys (FINRISK, 2002-2012; n = 18,067) with linked registry data for incident liver-related hospitalizations, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver death. The model was externally validated for liver-related outcomes in a Swedish population cohort (Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk [AMORIS] subcohort; n = 126,941) and for predicting outcomes and/or prevalent fibrosis/cirrhosis in biopsied patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), chronic hepatitis C, or alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). The dynamic AAR model predicted liver-related outcomes both overall (optimism-corrected C-statistic, 0.81) and in subgroup analyses of the FINRISK cohort and identified persons with >10% risk for liver-related outcomes within 10 years. In independent cohorts, the C-statistic for predicting liver-related outcomes up to a 10-year follow-up was 0.72 in the AMORIS cohort, 0.81 in NAFLD, and 0.75 in ALD. Area-under-the-curve (AUC) for detecting prevalent cirrhosis was 0.80-0.83 in NAFLD, 0.80 in hepatitis C, but only 0.71 in ALD. In ALD, model performance improved when using aspartate aminotransferase instead of ALT in the model (C-statistic, 0.84 for outcome; AUC, 0.82 for prevalent cirrhosis). Conclusion: A dAAR score provides prospective predictions for the risk of incident severe liver outcomes in the general population and helps detect advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. The dAAR score could potentially be used for screening the unselected general population and as a trigger for further liver evaluations.

Collagen proportionate area predicts clinical outcomes in patients with alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND: No prognostic tools are established for alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). Collagen proportionate area (CPA) measurement is a technique that quantifies fibrous tissue in liver biopsies using digital image analysis. AIM: To assess the predictive value of CPA on hepatic decompensation and liver-related mortality in ALD METHODS: In a multicentre cohort study, we included 386 patients with biopsy-verified ALD and with long-term follow-up. In the development cohort of 276 patients, we assessed the predictors of hepatic decompensation and liver-related death in standard and competing risk multivariable Cox regression analyses. The results were validated in an independent prospective cohort of 110 patients, where CPA was also correlated with liver stiffness measurement (LSM). RESULTS: In the development cohort, 231 (84%) patients had early/compensated ALD (non-cirrhotic or compensated cirrhosis) and 45 (16%) had decompensated cirrhosis. In the validation cohort, all patients had early/compensated ALD. Independent predictors of liver-related mortality were higher CPA values (HR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.04) and advanced fibrosis (HR = 2.80, 95% CI 1.29-6.05) with similar results in standard and competing risk multivariable Cox regression analysis. In early/compensated ALD, CPA was the only independent predictor of hepatic decompensation and liver-related death (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.06-1.11). In the prospective cohort, we validated that CPA independently predicts hepatic decompensation in early/compensated ALD. The predictive power of CPA and LSM was equally strong. CONCLUSIONS: CPA predicts liver-related mortality in ALD and hepatic decompensation and/or liver-related death in early/compensated ALD. Traditional histological assessment may benefit from the addition of CPA to the evaluation of ALD.

Alcoholic liver disease: A registry view on comorbidities and disease prediction.

Alcoholic-related liver disease (ALD) is the cause of more than half of all liver-related deaths. Sustained excess drinking causes fatty liver and alcohol-related steatohepatitis, which may progress to alcoholic liver fibrosis (ALF) and eventually to alcohol-related liver cirrhosis (ALC). Unfortunately, it is difficult to identify patients with early-stage ALD, as these are largely asymptomatic. Consequently, the majority of ALD patients are only diagnosed by the time ALD has reached decompensated cirrhosis, a symptomatic phase marked by the development of complications as bleeding and ascites. The main goal of this study is to discover relevant upstream diagnoses helping to understand the development of ALD, and to highlight meaningful downstream diagnoses that represent its progression to liver failure. Here, we use data from the Danish health registries covering the entire population of Denmark during nineteen years (1996-2014), to examine if it is possible to identify patients likely to develop ALF or ALC based on their past medical history. To this end, we explore a knowledge discovery approach by using high-dimensional statistical and machine learning techniques to extract and analyze data from the Danish National Patient Registry. Consistent with the late diagnoses of ALD, we find that ALC is the most common form of ALD in the registry data and that ALC patients have a strong over-representation of diagnoses associated with liver dysfunction. By contrast, we identify a small number of patients diagnosed with ALF who appear to be much less sick than those with ALC. We perform a matched case-control study using the group of patients with ALC as cases and their matched patients with non-ALD as controls. Machine learning models (SVM, RF, LightGBM and NaiveBayes) trained and tested on the set of ALC patients achieve a high performance for data classification (AUC = 0.89). When testing the same trained models on the small set of ALF patients, their performance unsurprisingly drops a lot (AUC = 0.67 for NaiveBayes). The statistical and machine learning results underscore small groups of upstream and downstream comorbidities that accurately detect ALC patients and show promise in prediction of ALF. Some of these groups are conditions either caused by alcohol or caused by malnutrition associated with alcohol-overuse. Others are comorbidities either related to trauma and life-style or to complications to cirrhosis, such as oesophageal varices. Our findings highlight the potential of this approach to uncover knowledge in registry data related to ALD.

Prediction of liver fibrosis severity in alcoholic liver disease by human microfibrillar-associated protein 4.

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) is a public health concern that is the cause of half of all cirrhosis-related deaths. Early detection of fibrosis, ideally in the precirrhotic stage, is a key strategy for improving ALD outcomes and for preventing progression to cirrhosis. Previous studies identified the blood-borne marker human microfibrillar-associated protein 4 (MFAP4) as a biomarker for detection of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related fibrosis. AIM: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of MFAP4 to detect ALD-induced fibrosis. METHOD: We performed a prospective, liver biopsy-controlled study involving 266 patients with prior or current alcohol overuse. Patients were split into a training and a validation cohort. RESULTS: MFAP4 was present in fibrotic hepatic tissue and serum MFAP4 levels increased with fibrosis grade. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for detection of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.96) in the training cohort and 0.91 (95% CI 0.79-1.00) in the validation cohort. For detection of advanced fibrosis, the AUROC was 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.94) in the training cohort and 0.92 (95% CI 0.83-1.00) in the validation cohort. The diagnostic accuracy did not differ between MFAP4 and the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test or transient elastography (TE) in an intention-to-diagnose analysis. MFAP4 did not predict hepatic decompensation in a time-to-decompensation analysis in a subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: MFAP4 is a novel biomarker that can detect ALD-related fibrosis with high accuracy.

The cost of endoscopic treatment for walled-off pancreatic necrosis.

BACKGROUND: Use of minimally invasive techniques has reduced mortality in walled-off pancreatic necrosis (WON) but may be costly. The aim of this study was to evaluate the actual costs associated with the endoscopic management of patients with WON. METHODS: We included a retrospective cohort of WON patients treated with endoscopic, transgastric drainage and necrosectomy (ETDN) during 2013-2014. Costs were calculated for six sub-areas based on a micro-costing model. Students T-test and non-parametric analysis of variance were performed to evaluate costs in relation to disease etiology and outcome. RESULTS: We included 58 patients (50% men, median age 57 years). The most common etiologies were gallstones (57%) and alcohol (19%). Nine patients (16%) died during admission. The median length of stay was 50 days (IQR 31 days). Eighteen patients (31%) needed treatment in our intensive care unit with a median length of stay of 16 days (IQR 31 days). The mean costs and standard deviation of costs (SD) per patient were: diagnostic imaging $2,431 ($2,301), laboratory tests $3,579 ($2,477), blood products $982 ($1,734), endoscopic treatment $3,794 ($1,777), medicine $5,440 ($6,656), and ward cost $41,260 ($35,854). The mean total cost was $57,486 ($46,739). Post-ERCP pancreatitis and mortality predicted higher costs. CONCLUSIONS: This study sheds light on the different costs associated with endoscopic treatment of WON. As nearly three quarters of the costs are related to ward care, initiatives aimed at reducing the length of hospital stay may have a great impact on making endoscopic treatment more cost effective.

Polymorphisms in the NFkB, TNF-alpha, IL-1beta, and IL-18 pathways are associated with response to anti-TNF therapy in Danish patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND: Anti-tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) is used for the treatment of severe cases of IBD, including Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). However, one-third of the patients do not respond to the treatment. We have previously investigated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes involved in inflammation were associated with response to anti-TNF therapy among patients with CD or UC. AIM: A new cohort of patients was established for replication of the previous findings and to identify new SNPs associated with anti-TNF response. METHODS: Fifty-three SNPs assessed previously in cohort 1 (482 CD and 256 UC patients) were genotyped in cohort 2 (587 CD and 458 UC patients). The results were analysed using logistic regression (adjusted for age and gender). RESULTS: Ten SNPs were associated with anti-TNF response either among patients with CD (TNFRSF1A(rs4149570) (OR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.02-3.60, P = 0.04), IL18(rs187238) (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.00-1.82, P = 0.05), and JAK2(rs12343867) (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.02-1.78, P = 0.03)), UC (TLR2(rs11938228) (OR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.33-0.92, P = 0.02), TLR4(rs5030728) (OR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.24-4.01, P = 0.01) and (rs1554973) (OR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.27-0.90, P = 0.02), NFKBIA(rs696) (OR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.06-2.00, P = 0.02), and NLRP3(rs4612666) (OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.44-0.91, P = 0.01)) or in the combined cohort of patient with CD and UC (IBD) (TLR4(rs5030728) (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.01-2.11, P = 0.04) and (rs1554973)(OR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.65-0.98, P = 0.03), NFKBIA(rs696) (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.01-1.54, P = 0.04), NLRP3(rs4612666) (OR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.57-0.95, P = 0.02), IL1RN(rs4251961) (OR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.66-1.00, P = 0.05), IL18(rs1946518) (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01-1.53, P = 0.04), and JAK2(rs12343867) (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01-1.53, P = 0.04)). CONCLUSIONS: The results support that polymorphisms in genes involved in the regulation of the NFκB pathway (TLR2, TLR4, and NFKBIA), the TNF-α signalling pathway (TNFRSF1A), and other cytokine pathways (NLRP3, IL1RN, IL18, and JAK2) were associated with response to anti-TNF therapy. Our multi-SNP model predicted response rate of more than 82% (in 9% of the CD patients) and 75% (in 15% of the UC patients), compared to 71% and 64% in all CD and UC patients, respectively. More studies are warranted to predict response for use in the clinic.

Fewer adverse effects associated with a modified two-bag intravenous acetylcysteine protocol compared to traditional three-bag regimen in paracetamol overdose.

Context: The intravenous (IV) N-acetylcysteine (NAC) regimen used worldwide in paracetamol overdose is complex with three separate weight-based doses and is associated with a high incidence of adverse events including non-allergic anaphylactoid reactions (NAARs). In 2012, Denmark adopted the two-bag IV NAC regimen which combined the first two infusions of the three-bag regimen and kept the third infusion unchanged. We compared the safety and efficacy of the two-bag IV NAC regimen with the traditional Danish three-bag regimen. Methods: A medical chart review was conducted in three Danish medical centers from January 2012 through December 2014. Safety and efficacy data were compared for patients who received the traditional infusion protocol in Denmark or the 20-h two-bag IV regimen. Results: Four hundred and ninety-three cases received the two-bag regimen and 274 received the three-bag regimen. The overall incidence of NAARs was 9% with all being mild to moderate in intensity. Fewer subjects in the two-bag group (4%) developed NAARs compared to 17% in the three-bag group (p < .001). Overall, 31 patients (4%) developed hepatotoxicity. There was no apparent difference in hepatotoxicity rates between the groups and no deaths or liver transplants. Patients receiving the two-bag regimen had fewer interruptions or delays (5%) compared to the three-bag regimen cohort (12%). Overall, there were very few medication errors reported (1%). Conclusions: The incidence of NAARs was lower in patients receiving acetylcysteine in a two-bag regimen compared to the traditional Danish three-bag regimen without an apparent reduction in efficacy.

Effect of overweight and obesity on weight loss and length of stay in patients with walled-off pancreatic necrosis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the association between admission weight, weight loss, and length of stay (LOS) in patients with walled-off pancreatic necrosis. METHODS: We classified the admission body mass index (BMI) of 18.5 to <25 kg/m2 as normal weight, 25 to <30 kg/m2 as overweight, and ≥30 kg/m2 as obesity. The Nutritional Risk Screening score-2002 was calculated to identify patients at risk for undernutrition. RESULTS: We included 38 patients (61% men, 68% with infected necrosis; 40% normal weight; 60% overweight/obesity). Four patients (11%) required treatment at the semi-intensive care unit, 11 (29%) developed pneumonia, and 10 (26%) developed septicemia. One patient died due to respiratory failure and hemorrhage. The remaining patients were discharged after a median of 49 d (36-64 d). During admission, 14 patients (38%) achieved an energy-protein intake of at least 75% and 17 (46%) achieved ≥70% coverage. The percentage weight loss was different (P < 0.01) for patients with normal weight (4%), overweight (9%), and obesity (14%). There was no difference between groups regarding percentage of energy or protein coverage. Patients with overweight/obesity had a longer hospital LOS (P = 0.016). In univariable regression analysis, overweight, obesity, energy, and protein coverage predicted weight loss. LOS did not predict weight loss. In multivariable regression analysis, overweight and obesity were the only remaining significant predictors of weight loss. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with walled-off pancreatic necrosis are at considerable risk for undernutrition. A BMI >25 kg/m2 predicts greater weight loss and longer LOS.

Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy in Inflammatory Bowel Disease--A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Confocal laser endomicroscopy is an endoscopic method that provides in vivo real-time imaging of the mucosa at a cellular level, elucidating mucosal changes that are undetectable by white light endoscopy. This paper systematically reviews current indications and perspectives of confocal laser endomicroscopy for inflammatory bowel disease. METHODS: Available literature was searched systematically for studies applying confocal laser endomicroscopy in Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis. Relevant literature was reviewed and only studies reporting original clinical data were included. Next, eligible studies were analysed with respect to several parameters, such as technique and clinical aim and definitions of outcomes. RESULTS: Confocal laser endomicroscopy has been used for a wide range of purposes in inflammatory bowel disease, covering assessment of inflammatory severity, prediction of therapeutic response and relapse and adenoma surveillance in patients with ulcerative colitis. Methods for measurement of the histological changes ranged from subjective grading to objective quantification analysed by computer-aided models. The studies derived their conclusions from assessment of histological features such as colonic crypts, epithelial gaps and epithelial leakiness to fluorescein. CONCLUSIONS: Confocal laser endomicroscopy remains an experimental but emerging tool for assessment of inflammatory bowel disease. It is the only method that enables in vivo functional assessment of intestinal barrier function. There is great heterogeneity in the literature and no single approach has been validated and reproduced to the level of general acceptance.