Viewpoint: evaluating the impact of malaria control efforts on mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To describe an approach for evaluating the impact of malaria control efforts on malaria-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, where disease-specific mortality trends usually cannot be measured directly and most malaria deaths occur among young children. METHODS: Methods for evaluating changes in malaria-associated mortality are examined; advantages and disadvantages are presented. RESULTS: All methods require a plausibility argument-i.e., an assumption that mortality reductions can be attributed to programmatic efforts if improvements are found in steps of the causal pathway between intervention scale-up and mortality trends. As different methods provide complementary information, they can be used together. We recommend following trends in the coverage of malaria control interventions, other factors influencing childhood mortality, malaria-associated morbidity (especially anaemia), and all-cause childhood mortality. This approach reflects decreases in malaria's direct and indirect mortality burden and can be examined in nearly all countries. Adding other information can strengthen the plausibility argument: trends in indicators of malaria transmission, information from demographic surveillance systems and sentinel sites where malaria diagnostics are systematically used, and verbal autopsies linked to representative household surveys. Health facility data on malaria deaths have well-recognized limitations; however, in specific circumstances, they could produce reliable trends. Model-based predictions can help describe changes in malaria-specific burden and assist with program management and advocacy. CONCLUSIONS: Despite challenges, efforts to reduce malaria-associated mortality in Africa can be evaluated with trends in malaria intervention coverage and all-cause childhood mortality. Where there are resources and interest, complementary data on malaria morbidity and malaria-specific mortality could be added.

The value of electromyography of the lumbar paraspinal muscles in discriminating between chronic-low-back-pain sufferers and normal subjects.

The authors studied the surface electromyographic (EMG) spectrum of the paraspinal muscles of 350 subjects. They were classified by their history as normal (n=175), chronic low back pain (n=145), or past history (n=30). They pulled upwards on a floor-mounted load cell at two-thirds of their maximum voluntary contraction for 30 s, while the EMG was measured from the paraspinal muscles at the L4/L5 level. From the EMG signal the root-mean-square (RMS) was calculated. Power spectrum analysis allowed calculation of the median frequency slope, the initial median frequency (IMF), modal frequency, peak amplitude and spectral width at half peak amplitude (half-width). All of the variables of the chronic group were significantly different from the normal group, except the median frequency slope, RMS slope and mode. Half-width, age and maximum voluntary contraction were shown to be independent predictors of back pain classification. Half-width classified the subjects with a sensitivity of 0.65 and a specificity of 0.75.

Role of flies and provision of latrines in trachoma control: cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Eye-seeking flies have received much attention as possible trachoma vectors, but this remains unproved. We aimed to assess the role of eye-seeking flies as vectors of trachoma and to test provision of simple pit latrines, without additional health education, as a sustainable method of fly control. METHODS: In a community-based, cluster-randomised controlled trial, we recruited seven sets of three village clusters and randomly assigned them to either an intervention group that received regular insecticide spraying or provision of pit latrines (without additional health education) to each household, or to a control group with no intervention. Our primary outcomes were fly-eye contact and prevalence of active trachoma. Frequency of child fly-eye contact was monitored fortnightly. Whole communities were screened for clinical signs of trachoma at baseline and after 6 months. Analysis was per protocol. FINDINGS: Of 7080 people recruited, 6087 (86%) were screened at follow-up. Baseline community prevalence of active trachoma was 6%. The number of Musca sorbens flies caught from children's eyes was reduced by 88% (95% CI 64-100; p<0.0001) by insecticide spraying and by 30% (7-52; p=0.04) by latrine provision by comparison with controls. Analysis of age-standardised trachoma prevalence rates at the cluster level (n=14) showed that spraying was associated with a mean reduction in trachoma prevalence of 56% (19-93; p=0.01) and 30% with latrines (-81 to 22; p=0.210) by comparison with the mean rate change in the controls. INTERPRETATION: Fly control with insecticide is effective at reducing the number of flies caught from children's eyes and is associated with substantially lower trachoma prevalence compared with controls. Such a finding is consistent with flies being important vectors of trachoma. Since latrine provision without health education was associated with a significant reduction in fly-eye contact by M sorbens, studies of their effect when combined with other trachoma control measures are warranted.

Herpes simplex 2 risk among women in a polygynous setting in rural West Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for herpes simplex 2 (HSV2) infection in women in a polygynous rural Gambian population. METHODS: Data from women who participated in a cross-sectional survey of reproductive health were matched to their own and, for women who had been or were married (ever-married), their spouses' data collected in a cross-sectional survey of fertility interests, including information on marital histories. RESULTS: Data were available on 150 never-married and 525 ever-married women. HSV2 prevalence was 16% amongst never-married women and 36% amongst ever-married women. For ever-married women, their own personal characteristics (age, ethnicity and genital cutting status) and events from their husbands' marriage history were important determinants of HSV2 infection. Women whose husbands married for the first time over age 35 were at greater risk than women whose husbands married by age 24 [odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-6.10]. Women whose husband reported interest in a new marriage were more likely to be HSV2 positive (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.18-3.09). Women whose husbands were currently monogamous but had had previous marriages (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.30-5.88) and women in currently polygynous marriages (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.66-5.01) were three times as likely to be HSV2 positive as women who were their husband's only wife ever. CONCLUSION: Much transmission of HSV2 in this setting occurs within marriage where opportunity for personal protection is limited. High levels of transmission within marriage may undermine the impact of sexual behaviour change programmes aiming to reduce HSV2 and HIV incidence and complicate their evaluation.

Reporting of fertility events by men and women in rural Gambia.

We conducted a survey of male and female fertility in rural villages in The Gambia and compared men and women's reports of recent pregnancy events in the aggregate and of children ever born for matched couples. Despite widespread polygyny and sex differences in fertility, men's and women's reports were similar. Small sex differences in reports of recent stillbirths and neonatal deaths were found. For matched couples, husbands reported 0.23 more children ever born than their wives on average, but discordant reporting had little effect on recent marital fertility rates. Modeling of discordant reports indicates that fertility reports are more likely to be underestimated by both men and women for their earliest marriages. Reliable fertility data can be collected from men in this population.