Leveraging epidemiology as a decision support tool during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa.

By May 2021, South Africa (SA) had experienced two 'waves' of COVID-19 infections, with an initial peak of infections reached in July 2020, followed by a larger peak of infections in January 2021. Public health decisions rely on accurate and timely disease surveillance and epidemiological analyses, and accessibility of data at all levels of government is critical to inform stakeholders to respond effectively. In this paper, we describe the adaptation, development and operation of epidemiological surveillance and modelling systems in SA in response to the COVID-19 epidemic, including data systems for monitoring laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, mortality and recoveries at a national and provincial level, and how these systems were used to inform modelling projections and public health decisions. Detailed descriptions on the characteristics and completeness of individual datasets are not provided in this paper. Rapid development of robust data systems was necessary to support the response to the SA COVID-19 epidemic. These systems produced data streams that were used in decision-making at all levels of government. While much progress was made in producing epidemiological data, challenges remain to be overcome to address gaps to better prepare for future waves of COVID-19 and other health emergencies.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of sentinel lymph node detection in vulvar cancer by preoperative lymphoscintigraphy versus intraoperative detection alone.

OBJECTIVE: To determine cost-effectiveness of preoperative lymphoscintigraphy (LSG) for detection of inguinofemoral sentinel lymph nodes (SLN). METHOD: We compared the use of preoperative LSG prior to SLN excision versus omission of preoperative LSG. The two outcomes were death or survival. Costs associated with the procedure were determined by CPT code and published estimates. Cost analysis was performed using Treeage software, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. The measure of effectiveness was incremental survival benefit. ICER thresholds for considering LSG to be cost-effective were based on the value of a statistical life (VSL). RESULTS: Using a baseline probability of 0.93 for finding SLN with LSG, our model estimated LSG costs were $2783.84 with 84.7% survival. Our model then estimated the cost and survival without LSG by varying the SLN detection rate. Survival was equivalent when probability of SLN detection without LSG was 0.93. If detection without LSG was >0.93, not performing LSG was the dominant strategy. Costs were equal when probability of finding SLN without LSG was 0.6. For any SLN detection without LSG below 0.6, performing LSG was the dominant strategy. Formal cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using ICERs for probabilities from 0.60 to 0.93. In this range, costs were higher with LSG, but survival was improved. As long as the incremental detection with LSG was at least 1.05% to 1.47% higher, LSG was cost-effective with ICERs below the VSL. CONCLUSION: In our model, LSG is cost-effective as long as it increases detection of SLN by at least 1.05-1.47%.

Combining role-play with interactive simulation to motivate informed climate action: Evidence from the World Climate simulation.

Climate change communication efforts grounded in the information deficit model have largely failed to close the gap between scientific and public understanding of the risks posed by climate change. In response, simulations have been proposed to enable people to learn for themselves about this complex and politically charged topic. Here we assess the impact of a widely-used simulation, World Climate, which combines a socially and emotionally engaging role-play with interactive exploration of climate change science through the C-ROADS climate simulation model. Participants take on the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement that meets international climate goals. Their decisions are entered into C-ROADS, which provides immediate feedback about expected global climate impacts, enabling them to learn about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations. We assess the impact of World Climate by analyzing pre- and post-survey results from >2,000 participants in 39 sessions in eight nations. We find statistically significant gains in three areas: (i) knowledge of climate change causes, dynamics and impacts; (ii) affective engagement including greater feelings of urgency and hope; and (iii) a desire to learn and do more about climate change. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in urgency were associated with gains in participants' desire to learn more and intent to act, while gains in climate knowledge were not. Gains were just as strong among American participants who oppose government regulation of free markets-a political ideology that has been linked to climate change denial in the US-suggesting the simulation's potential to reach across political divides. The results indicate that World Climate offers a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed by science.

A persistent mass: A case of aggressive Angiomyxoma of the vulva.

We present a case of aggressive angiomyxoma of the vulva. The patient presented with a persistent, enlarging vulvar mass, initially misdiagnosed as a Bartholin gland cyst. The patient underwent wide local excision, which resulted in total resection of the mass. Final pathology was consistent with aggressive angiomyxoma, a rare soft tissue tumor with a predilection for the female pelvis. Though rare, it is important to consider in the differential diagnosis of a pelvic mass, given the locally aggressive nature of this tumor and propensity for recurrence.

Lack of awareness in both patients and physicians contributes to a high rate of late presentation in a South West German HIV patient cohort.

PURPOSE: To assess rate of late presentation with HIV in Southwestern Germany and to identify patient characteristics correlated with CD4 nadir. METHODS: Patients with primary diagnosis who presented to one of ten participating clinics rated on knowledge and behavior towards HIV testing on a self-developed questionnaire, whereas clinical data was assessed by the physician. RESULTS: 161 patients were included. Risk factors were homosexual (59.5 %) or heterosexual contacts (26.8 %), drug use (2.0 %), migration (3.9 %), or others (7.8 %). 63.5 % had a CD4 T cell count < 350/µl. 52.5, 17.4, and 31.1 % were diagnosed in CDC stadium A, B or C, respectively. 209 disease episodes were reported, from whom 83.7 % had led to the diagnosis of HIV. 75.2 and 68.3 % said to have been well-informed about ways of transmission and testing offerings, respectively, and 20.4 % admitted to have psychologically repressed the possibility of being infected. 48 patients rated their personal behavioral risk as "high" or "very high". Of these, however, only ten had performed at test in the precedent year. Performing a regression analysis, younger age and previous testing were correlated with a higher CD4 T cell nadir (p = 0.005, and 0.018, resp.). CONCLUSION: The rate of late presentation in this region was even higher compared to national or European surveys. Most infected patients perceived to have had only a low risk. Several disease episodes did not lead to the initiation of HIV testing by the physician.

Outcomes following percutaneous upper gastrointestinal decompressive tube placement for malignant bowel obstruction in ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate peri-operative and survival outcomes of ovarian cancer patients undergoing percutaneous upper gastrointestinal decompression for malignant bowel obstruction (MBO). METHODS: Retrospective chart review was used to identify patients with ovarian, peritoneal, or fallopian tube cancer who underwent palliative decompressive treatment for MBO from 1/2002 to 12/2010. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the median survival (MS) and multivariate analysis used to determine if any variables were associated with the hazard of death. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients met inclusion criteria. Median length of diagnosis prior to intervention was 21 months. Fifteen (28.3%) patients experienced complications and 9 required revision. Forty-nine (92.5%) experienced relief of symptoms after placement, and 91% tolerated some form of oral intake. Following placement, 19 (36%) patients received additional chemotherapy and 21(41%) patients received total parental nutrition (TPN). Thirty-five patients were discharged home/outpatient facility, 16 to hospice care, and 2 died prior to discharge. MS for all patients was 46 days. Patients who received chemotherapy had a MS of 169 days compared to 33 days (p<0.001). We failed to find an association between survival and TPN or performance status. CONCLUSIONS: Malignant bowel obstruction is a common complication of ovarian cancer. Management is palliative; risks and benefits of any therapy must be considered. Percutaneous decompressive therapy provides relief from associated symptoms, and allows patients to be discharged home. Median survival in this group is limited, and decisions regarding aggressive therapy should be individualized.

Community's knowledge and perceptions about filarial elephantiasis and hydrocele in coastal Orissa, India.

This study assesses people's knowledge and perceptions on transmission, prevention and eradication of elephantiasis and hydrocele, common manifestations of chronic lymphatic filariasis (LF). The assessment was done during mass drug administration (MDA) of the programme to eliminate LF in the State of Orissa, India. A household survey with pre-tested interview questionnaire was conducted in four LF endemic districts of Orissa state, India, where the MDA has been taken place. The sampling units (clusters of households) of the household survey are taken based on (1) urban/rural and (2) type of or absence of health facility. A total of 1,448 respondents were selected randomly. Majority of the respondents heard about elephantiasis and hydrocele. About one third of them know that mosquito bite is the cause of elephantiasis but very few people know about hydrocele. Around 50% of the respondent believed that elephantiasis could be cured completely, while almost 60% said that it could be totally removed from the community. But for hydrocele, more than 80% of respondents showed a positive approach for cure and nearly about 70% said that hydrocele could totally be eradicated from community. Various causes and methods of cure and prevention were suggested. Around 55% of respondents suggested that elephantiasis can be eradicated by taking medicine, but only 40% felt that hydrocele can be cured by taking medicine. Basic knowledge on LF is poor and relatively low proportion of people knows that LF can be eliminated by taking medicine. As there are plans to undertake further rounds of MDA in Orissa, people's knowledge has to be strengthened and perception and attitudes have to be addressed to achieve positive behavioural change, which eventually lead to higher compliance of MDA.

Beta cell death in hyperglycaemic Psammomys obesus is not cytokine-mediated.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: It has recently been proposed that IL-1beta may be responsible for beta cell death in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Major support for this assumption was derived from experiments in the gerbil Psammomys obesus (sand rat), a model for nutritionally induced non-insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes. Using gerbil-specific primers for the analysis of gene expression, we investigated the validity of this hypothesis. METHODS: Gene expression was analysed by real-time RT-PCR of isolated and laser-microdissected islets and by in situ RT-PCR, both in beta cells and in immune cells, as well as in lymph nodes and spleen. RESULTS: We were unable to detect Il-1beta and the IL-1beta-inducible enzyme inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNos) by in situ RT-PCR, either in the pancreatic beta cells, or in the small number of non-activated immune cells of healthy and diabetic Psammomys obesus after 1 and 3 weeks on a high-energy diet. Very low levels of Il-1beta and iNos mRNA were detectable in collagenase-isolated and laser-microdissected islets of normoglycaemic gerbils by real-time RT-PCR without any increase of these mRNAs in islets from diabetic animals. These results were confirmed by electron microscopy with immunogold staining for IL-1beta and insulin. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The diabetic syndrome induced in Psammomys obesus by high-energy diet is a classical type 2 diabetes model, which does not show any evidence of an involvement of the proinflammatory cytokine IL-1beta or of activated immune cells in its pathogenesis. This is clearly at variance with the situation in type 1 diabetes.

Use of an inclusive-partnership strategy in urban areas of Orissa, India, to increase compliance in a mass drug administration for the control of lymphatic filariasis.

In India, the programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis, which is largely based on mass administrations of diethylcarbamazine, has, in terms of coverage and compliance, been generally much less successful in urban areas than in rural communities. An innovative strategy to make the programme more effective in urban settings, largely based on an inclusive partnership and community participation, has recently been developed. An evaluation of the strategy's implementation in Orissa, which employed both quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection, revealed significantly higher coverage and compliance in an urban area where the strategy had been implemented than in a similar urban area where there had been no such intervention. Application of this strategy in other urban settings in general, and in small towns in particular, is recommended in India.

Impact of chronic lymphatic filariasis on quantity and quality of productive work among weavers in an endemic village from India.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of hydrocele and lymphoedema on the quantity and quality of productive work of weavers. METHOD: Case-control study in an endemic village in Andhra Pradesh, India. We collected qualitative data on work activities from cases and age- and sex-matched controls through informal discussions and observation. RESULTS: The mean (+/-standard deviation) daily work time of cases was 7.38 h (+/-2.47), significantly less than that of controls (8.17+/-2.41 h). Lost work time was equivalent to around 29 days of work in a year. Gender had significant influence on the mean number of working hours in this occupational group. Most cases could not weave, which is physically demanding, and preferred less strenuous tasks such as spinning, starching, dyeing or sizing. Hard physical labour constitutes 71.5% of total work time among patients and 83.7% in controls. As income also depends on the type of work, cases earn less. CONCLUSIONS: Filariasis has an adverse impact on the productivity of weavers, and morbidity management strategies and control programmes need to take this into account.

Use of the Dermatology Life Quality Index in filarial lymphoedema patients.

The global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis has alleviation of suffering and disability as one of its components, and many efforts are being taken across the globe in this direction. However, there is no effective tool to assess the impact of these efforts on patients' quality of life and/or lessening of disability and suffering. The present paper reports the use of the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) in filarial lymphoedema patients. DLQI scores were collected from 203 patients recruited from a clinic and from the community. The DLQI score ranged from 0 to 17, and a mean score of 2.7 (SD 4.4) or 9.0% disability. This score is lower than many skin diseases reported so far. The scores for individual questions vary, but the degree of consistency of responses between questions is high. The differences between sexes, place of recruitment and grades of lymphoedema are not significant. Although the DLQI measures the quality of life due to lymphoedema, this study further warrants development of a good quality-of-life index for lymphoedema patients.

Adverse reactions following mass drug administration during the Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis in Orissa State, India.

The frequency and severity of adverse reactions are the main reasons for low compliance of mass drug administration (MDA) under the Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (PELF). This paper reports the frequency and types of adverse reactions during two MDAs during January 2002 and September 2004 in the State of Orissa, India. Of the people who consumed the drugs, 15.5% in the 2002 MDA and 16.5% in the 2004 MDA reported one or more adverse reactions. This rate is higher (49.7%) in a group of individuals who were monitored for 6 days from the day of consumption of drugs during the 2002 MDA. However, many of these reactions were mild. No significant difference was found in the frequency of adverse reactions between MDA with diethylcarbamazine (DEC) alone and with DEC and albendazole. Significant gender differences were found in the 2004 MDA but no such differences were found in the 2002 MDA; however, the frequency of adverse reactions increased with age. Of all the adverse reactions, systemic adverse reactions typically associated with microfilarial death were more frequent. The frequency of adverse reactions was higher in microfilaraemics compared with amicrofilaraemic controls. The present study warrants developing an active adverse reaction surveillance system to minimise the impact of adverse reactions on MDA compliance.

Knowledge and perceptions about lymphatic filariasis: a study during the programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis in an urban community of Orissa, India.

This study reports the knowledge and perceptions of the people with regard to cause and transmission of chronic forms of lymphatic filariasis (LF) and its elimination programme during mass drug administration (MDA) under the programme to eliminate LF in an urban area of Orissa, India. The paper is based on both quantitative and qualitative surveys undertaken before and after the first MDA among different socio-economic strata of the urban area. The data revealed that the urban residents are aware of the chronic forms of LF and also felt that LF is a problem in their area. But most of them do not know the role of mosquitoes in the transmission of the disease. A few people explained the association between LF and hydrocele, and the role of mosquitoes. In the present study, it is observed that poor knowledge about LF is highly influenced by socioeconomic conditions. People from lower economic category were least aware of the cause of both lymphoedema and hydrocele. However, knowledge in some issues with regards to the disease and the awareness on MDA have increased significantly after MDA.

A randomized clinical trial to compare the efficacy of three treatment regimens along with footcare in the morbidity management of filarial lymphoedema.

The progression of lymphoedema to elephantiasis associated with increased incidence of episodic adeno-lymphangitis (ADL) is of great concern, as it causes physical suffering, permanent disability and economic loss to lymphatic filariasis patients. This randomized clinical trial aimed to assess the efficacy in terms of reduction of oedema and ADL frequency of three treatment regimens among lymphoedema patients from Orissa, India. The regimens were: (I) oral penicillin--one tablet of 800 000 U penicillin G potassium twice daily for 12 days--repeated every 3 months for 1 year; (II) diethylcarbamazine--6 mg/kg bodyweight for 12 days-repeated every 3 months for 1 year; and (III) topical antiseptic, i.e. betadine ointment. Foot care was part of all regimens. All three drug regimens are efficacious in reducing oedema and frequency of ADL episodes. Although the efficacy was slightly higher in regimen I, the difference was not significant. About half of all patients had reduced oedema after the 90 days of treatment, with oedema reduction of 75-100% in 20%. A major proportion of the remaining patients had oedema reduced by less than 25%. The proportion of people whose oedema reduced was slightly but not significantly lower in regimen II. anova revealed that lymphoedema reduction varied according to grade; being greatest at grade 1 lymphoedema, followed by grade 2. All three regimens significantly reduced ADL frequency after 1 year of treatment. This may be because of foot care as well as use of antibiotics. The estimated costs of treatment per patient for a period of 3 months are US$2.4, 1.5 and 4.0 respectively for regimen I, II and III. Thus affordable treatments with simple antibiotics and foot care can give substantial relief to the patients and reverse early lymphoedema.

Development and evaluation of tracking algorithms for cardiac wall motion analysis using phase velocity MR imaging.

Phase velocity magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has shown considerable potential for tracking distinct regions of the myocardium throughout the cardiac cycle. Phase contrast MR imaging produces multiple images, each phase encoded for velocity in a different direction, in which individual pixels depict the local motion of the tissue. In this work we present in detail three algorithms for tracking motion based on these images. Both simulated and phantom data are used to examine some of the problems encountered in practice in tracking points based on velocity maps. Solutions to these problems are offered when possible. The impact of noise and low order phase errors in the data on each of the three tracking approaches is examined. In addition, problems due to tissue expansion and contraction, to 2D versus 3D tracking, and to round off errors from motion which is small relative to pixel size or slice thickness, are considered. An example using data obtained in vivo is included to demonstrate the efficacy of the best of the three tracking algorithms in measuring left ventricular circumferential shortening preinfarct and postinfarct in a canine model.

SHORT syndrome and insulin resistance.

We describe a further case of SHORT syndrome. This girl shows nearly all the typical manifestations reported in patients with SHORT syndrome. However, at 14 years she presented with non-ketotic hyperglycemia. At 16 1/2 years, the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus secondary to severe insulin resistance was made by intravenous insulin challenge. Insulin resistant diabetes mellitus seems to be a new finding in SHORT syndrome, not previously described in this condition.

[Oxygen tension in skeletal muscle in patients with reduced O2-carrying capacity (author's transl)]. / Der Sauerstoffdruck in der Skelettmuskulatur bei Patienten mit chronisch herabgesetzter O2-Kapazität.

In 10 patients (age: 31--72 years) oxygen supply of skeletal muscle was measured by pO2-multiwire technique. All patients suffered from chronic renal failure of differing etiologies and from chronic renal anemia. In muscle tissue 1,128 different O2-tensions were registered and the results were expressed as pO2-histograms. Seven of these pO2-histograms show a normal distribution, three are shifted to the left to lower O2-tensions. Therefore the microcirculation in the skeletal muscle of patients with chronic reduced O2-carrying capacity is largely undisturbed. The microcirculation is able to increase with exercise as shown by a shift to the right in the PO2-histogram. The use of the pO2-multiwire electrode is largely devoid of risk to the patient. Important pathological features may be demonstrated.

Psychopathology and psychotherapy in chronic physically ill patients.

Within the scope of psychosomatic medicine somato-psychic diseases are of great importance theoretically as well as practically, especially in view of problems dealing with the patient's attitude toward his illness and his coping with the disease. Among the somato-psychic illnesses chronic physical diseases are of primary interest. The knowledge of their general and specific psychological and psychopathological symptoms are of great importance for a better understanding of these patients and in view of a favourable direction in therapy. This is demonstrated in the form of extracts with three groups of the chronic physically ill: (1) hemophiliacs; (2) patients on regular hemodialysis treatment and following renal transplantation, and (3) diabetics.