Using Machine Learning Models to Identify Factors Associated With 30-Day Readmissions After Posterior Cervical Fusions: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Objective: Readmission rates after posterior cervical fusion (PCF) significantly impact patients and healthcare, with complication rates at 15%-5% and up to 12% 90-day readmission rates. In this study, we aim to test whether machine learning (ML) models that capture interfactorial interactions outperform traditional logistic regression (LR) in identifying readmission-associated factors. Methods: The Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database was used to identify patients who underwent PCF between 2004-2017. To determine factors associated with 30-day readmissions, 5 ML models were generated and evaluated, including a multivariate LR (MLR) model. Then, the best-performing model, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), was compared to the LACE (Length patient stay in the hospital, Acuity of admission of patient in the hospital, Comorbidity, and Emergency visit) index regarding potential cost savings from algorithm implementation. Results: This study included 4,130 patients, 874 of which were readmitted within 30 days. When analyzed and scaled, we found that patient discharge status, comorbidities, and number of procedure codes were factors that influenced MLR, while patient discharge status, billed admission charge, and length of stay influenced the GBM model. The GBM model significantly outperformed MLR in predicting unplanned readmissions (mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.846 vs. 0.829; p<0.001), while also projecting an average cost savings of 50% more than the LACE index. Conclusion: Five models (GBM, XGBoost [extreme gradient boosting], RF [random forest], LASSO [least absolute shrinkage and selection operator], and MLR) were evaluated, among which, the GBM model exhibited superior predictive performance, robustness, and accuracy. Factors associated with readmissions impact LR and GBM models differently, suggesting that these models can be used complementarily. When analyzing PCF procedures, the GBM model resulted in greater predictive performance and was associated with higher theoretical cost savings for readmissions associated with PCF complications.

Getting what you pay for: impact of copayments on physical therapy and opioid initiation, timing, and continuation for newly diagnosed low back pain.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Physical therapy (PT) is an important component of low back pain (LBP) management. Despite established guidelines, heterogeneity in medical management remains common. PURPOSE: We sought to understand how copayments impact timing and utilization of PT in newly diagnosed LBP. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: The IBM Watson Health MarketScan claims database was used in a longitudinal setting. PATIENT SAMPLE: Adult patients with LBP. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes-of-interest were timing and overall utilization of PT services. Additional outcomes-of-interest included timing of opioid prescribing. METHODS: Actual and inferred copayments based on nonnonprimary care provider visit claims were used to evaluate the relationship between PT copayment and incidence of PT initiation. Multivariable regression models were used to evaluate factors influencing PT usage. RESULTS: Overall, 2,467,389 patients were included. PT initiation, among those with at ≥1 PT service during the year after LBP diagnosis (30.6%), occurred at a median of 8 days postdiagnosis (IQR 1-55). Among those with at least one PT encounter, incidence of subsequent PT visits was significantly lower for those with high initial PT copayments. High initial PT copayments, while inversely correlated with PT utilization, were directly correlated with subsequent opioid use (0.77 prescriptions/patient [$0 PT copayment] versus 1.07 prescriptions/patient [$50-74 PT copayment]; 1.15 prescriptions/patient [$75+ PT copayment]). Among patients with known opioid and PT copayments, higher PT copayments were correlated with faster opioid use while higher opioid copayments were correlated with faster PT use (Spearman p<.05). For multivariable whole-cohort analyses, incidence of PT initiation among patients with inferred copayments in the 50-75th and 75-100th percentiles was significantly lower than those below the 50th percentile (HR=0.893 [95%CI 0.887-0.899] and HR=0.905 [95%CI 0.899-0.912], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Higher PT copayments correlated with reduced PT utilization; higher PT copayments and lower opioid copayments were independent contributors to delayed PT initiation and higher opioid use. In patients covered by plans charging high PT copayments, opioid use was significantly higher. Copays may impact long-term adherence to PT.

Factors affecting retirement and workforce attrition in neurosurgery: results of a Council of State Neurosurgical Societies national survey.

OBJECTIVE: By 2030, the US will not have enough neurosurgeons to meet the clinical needs of its citizens. Replacement of neurosurgeons due to attrition can take more than a decade, given the time-intensive training process. To identify potential workforce retention targets, the authors sought to identify factors that might impact neurosurgeons' retirement considerations. METHODS: The Council of State Neurosurgical Societies surveyed practicing AANS-registered neurosurgeons via email link to an online form with 25 factors that were ranked using a Likert scale of importance regarding retirement from the field (ranging from 1 for not important to 3 for very important). All participants were asked: "If you could afford it, would you retire today?" RESULTS: A total of 447 of 3200 neurosurgeons (14%) responded; 6% had been in practice for less than 5 years, 19% for 6-15 years, 57% for 16-30 years, and 18% for more than 30 years. Practice types included academic (18%), hospital employed (31%), independent with academic appointment (9%), and full independent practice (39%). The most common practice size was between 2 and 5 physicians (46%), with groups of 10 or more being the next most common (20%). Career satisfaction, income, and the needs of patients were rated as the most important factors keeping neurosurgeons in the workforce. Increasing regulatory burden, decreasing clinical autonomy, and the burden of insurance companies were the highest rated for factors important in considering retirement. Subgroup analysis by career stage, practice size, practice type, and geographic region revealed no significant difference in responses. When considering if they would retire now, 45% of respondents answered "yes." Subgroup analysis revealed that midcareer neurosurgeons (16-25 years in practice) were more likely to respond "yes" than those just entering their careers or in practice for more than 25 years (p = 0.03). This effect was confirmed in multivariate logistic regression (p = 0.04). These surgeons found professional satisfaction (p = 0.001), recertification requirements (p < 0.001), and maintaining high levels of income (p = 0.008) important to maintaining employment within the neurosurgical workforce. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that midcareer neurosurgeons may benefit from targeted retention efforts. This effort should focus on maximizing professional satisfaction and financial independence, while decreasing the regulatory burden associated with certification and insurance authorization. End-of-career surgeons should be surveyed to determine factors contributing to resilience and persistence within the neurosurgical workforce.

Contemporary Trends in Minimally Invasive Sacroiliac Joint Fusion Utilization in the Medicare Population by Specialty.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Sacroiliac (SI) joint dysfunction constitutes a leading cause of pain and disability. Although surgical arthrodesis is traditionally performed under open approaches, the past decade has seen a rise in minimally invasive surgical (MIS) techniques and new federally approved devices for MIS approaches. In addition to neurosurgeons and orthopedic surgeons, proceduralists from nonsurgical specialties are performing MIS procedures for SI pathology. Here, we analyze trends in SI joint fusions performed by different provider groups, along with trends in the charges billed and reimbursement provided by Medicare. METHODS: We review yearly Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary data from 2015 to 2020 from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for all SI joint fusions. Patients were stratified as undergoing MIS or open procedures. Utilization was adjusted per million Medicare beneficiaries and weighted averages for charges and reimbursements were calculated, controlling for inflation. Reimbursement-to-charge (RCR) ratios were calculated, reflecting the proportion of provider billed amounts reimbursed by Medicare. RESULTS: A total of 12 978 SI joint fusion procedures were performed, with the majority (76.5%) being MIS procedures. Most MIS procedures were performed by nonsurgical specialists (52.1%) while most open fusions were performed by spine surgeons (71%). Rapid growth in MIS procedures was noted for all specialty categories, along with an increased number of procedures offered in the outpatient setting and ambulatory surgical centers. The overall RCR increased over time and was ultimately similar between spine surgeons (RCR = 0.26) and nonsurgeon specialists (RCR = 0.27) performing MIS procedures. CONCLUSION: Substantial growth in MIS procedures for SI pathology has occurred in recent years in the Medicare population. This growth can largely be attributed to adoption by nonsurgical specialists, whose reimbursement and RCR increased for MIS procedures. Future studies are warranted to better understand the impact of these trends on patient outcomes and costs.

Objective outcome measures may demonstrate continued change in functional recovery in patients with ceiling effects of subjective patient-reported outcome measures after surgery for lumbar degenerative disorders.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The 6-minute walking test (6WT) has been previously shown to be a reliable and valid outcome measure. It is unclear if the 6WT may further help to detect differences in well performing patients that reach a ceiling effect in PROMs after surgery. PURPOSE: To evaluate changes and timing of change in objective functional impairment (OFI) as measured with the smartphone-based 6WT in relation to patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) after surgery for degenerative lumbar disorders (DLD). STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. PATIENT SAMPLE: Fifty consecutive patients undergoing surgery for DLD. OUTCOME MEASURES: Patients self-determined their OFI using the 6WT application (6WT-app) and completed a set of paper-based PROMs before, 6 weeks and 3 months after surgery. METHODS: Fifty patients undergoing surgery for DLD were assessed preoperatively (baseline), 6 weeks (6W) and 3 months (3M) postoperatively. Paired sample t-tests were used to establish significant changes in raw 6-minute walking distance (6WD) and standardized Z-scores, as well as PROMs. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to define the relationship between 6WT and PROMs. Floor and ceiling effects were assessed for each PROM (visual analogue scale [VAS], core outcome measure index [COMI], Zurich claudication questionnaire [ZCQ]). RESULTS: Mean 6WT results improved from 377 m (standard deviation - SD 137; Z-score: 1.8, SD 1.8) to 490 m (SD 126; -0.7, SD 1.5) and 518 m (SD 112; -0.4, SD 1.41; all p<.05) at 6W and 3M follow-up. No significant improvement was observed between 6W and 3M for the ZCQ, VAS back and leg pain. While correlation between 6WT and all PROMs were weak at baseline, correlation coefficient increased to moderate at 3M. A considerable ceiling effect (best possible score) was observed, most notably for the ZCQ physical performance, VAS back and leg pain in 24%, 20%, and 16% of patient at 6W and in 30%, 24%, and 28% at 3M. CONCLUSIONS: Objective functional tests can describe the continued change in the physical recovery of a patient and may help to detect differences in well performing groups as well as in cases where patients' PROM results cannot further improve because of a ceiling effect.

Representativeness of the American Spine Registry: a comparison of patient characteristics with the National Inpatient Sample.

OBJECTIVE: The American Spine Registry (ASR) is a collaborative effort between the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons and the American Association of Neurological Surgeons. The goal of this study was to evaluate how representative the ASR is of the national practice with spinal procedures, as recorded in the National Inpatient Sample (NIS). METHODS: The authors queried the NIS and the ASR for cervical and lumbar arthrodesis cases performed during 2017-2019. International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision and Current Procedural Terminology codes were used to identify patients undergoing cervical and lumbar procedures. The two groups were compared for the overall proportion of cervical and lumbar procedures, age distribution, sex, surgical approach features, race, and hospital volume. Outcomes available in the ASR, such as patient-reported outcomes and reoperations, were not analyzed due to nonavailability in the NIS. The representativeness of the ASR compared to the NIS was assessed via Cohen's d effect sizes, and absolute standardized mean differences (SMDs) of < 0.2 were considered trivial, whereas > 0.5 were considered moderately large. RESULTS: A total of 24,800 arthrodesis procedures were identified in the ASR for the period between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019. During the same time period, 1,305,360 cases were recorded in the NIS. Cervical fusions comprised 35.9% of the ASR cohort (8911 cases) and 36.0% of the NIS cohort (469,287 cases). The two databases presented trivial differences in terms of patient age and sex for all years of interest across both cervical and lumbar arthrodeses (SMD < 0.2). Trivial differences were also noted in the distribution of open versus percutaneous procedures of the cervical and lumbar spine (SMD < 0.2). Among lumbar cases, anterior approaches were more common in the ASR than in the NIS (32.1% vs 22.3%, SMD = 0.22), but the discrepancy among cervical cases in the two databases was trivial (SMD = 0.03). Small differences were illustrated in terms of race, with SMDs < 0.5, and a more significant discrepancy was identified in the geographic distribution of participating sites (SMDs of 0.7 and 0.74 for cervical and lumbar cases, respectively). For both of these measures, SMDs in 2019 were smaller than those in 2018 and 2017. CONCLUSIONS: The ASR and NIS databases presented a very high similarity in proportions of cervical and lumbar spine surgeries, as well as similar distributions of age and sex, and distribution of open versus endoscopic approach. Slight discrepancies in anterior versus posterior approach among lumbar cases and patient race, and more significant discrepancies in geographic representation were also identified, yet decreasing trends in differences suggested the improving representativeness of the ASR over the course of time and its progressive growth. These conclusions are important to underline the external validity of quality investigations and research conclusions to be drawn from analyses in which the ASR is used.

Identification of Factors Associated With 30-day Readmissions After Posterior Lumbar Fusion Using Machine Learning and Traditional Models: A National Longitudinal Database Study.

STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with readmissions after PLF using machine learning and logistic regression (LR) models. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Readmissions after posterior lumbar fusion (PLF) place significant health and financial burden on the patient and overall health care system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database was used to identify patients who underwent posterior lumbar laminectomy, fusion, and instrumentation between 2004 and 2017. Four machine learning models and a multivariable LR model were used to assess factors most closely associated with 30-day readmission. These models were also evaluated in terms of ability to predict unplanned 30-day readmissions. The top-performing model (Gradient Boosting Machine; GBM) was then compared with the validated LACE index in terms of potential cost savings associated with the implementation of the model. RESULTS: A total of 18,981 patients were included, of which 3080 (16.2%) were readmitted within 30 days of initial admission. Discharge status, prior admission, and geographic division were most influential for the LR model, whereas discharge status, length of stay, and prior admissions had the greatest relevance for the GBM model. GBM outperformed LR in predicting unplanned 30-day readmission (mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.865 vs. 0.850, P <0.0001). The use of GBM also achieved a projected 80% decrease in readmission-associated costs relative to those achieved by the LACE index model. CONCLUSIONS: The factors associated with readmission vary in terms of predictive influence based on standard LR and machine learning models used, highlighting the complementary roles these models have in identifying relevant factors for the prediction of 30-day readmissions. For PLF procedures, GBM yielded the greatest predictive ability and associated cost savings for readmission. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Opioid Usage in Lumbar Disc Herniation Patients with Nonsurgical, Early Surgical, and Late Surgical Treatments.

OBJECTIVE: To assess opioid usage in surgical and nonsurgical patients with lumbar disc herniation receiving different treatments and timing of treatments. METHODS: Individuals with newly diagnosed lumbar intervertebral disc herniation without myelopathy were queried from a health claims database. Patients were categorized into 3 cohorts: nonsurgical, early surgery, and late surgery. Early surgery cohort patients underwent surgery within 30 days postdiagnosis; late surgery cohort patients had surgery after 30 days but before 1 year postdiagnosis. The index date was defined as the diagnosis date for nonsurgical patients and the initial surgery date for surgical patients. The primary outcome was the average daily opioid morphine milligram equivalents (MME) prescribed. Additional outcomes included percentage of opioid-using patients and cumulative opioid burden. RESULTS: Inclusion criteria were met by 573,082 patients: 533,226 patients received nonsurgical treatments, 22,312 patients received early surgery, and 17,544 patients received late surgery. Both surgical cohorts experienced a postsurgical increase in opioid usage, which then sharply declined and gradually plateaued, with daily opioid MME consistently lower in the early versus late surgery cohort. The early surgery cohort also consistently had a lower prevalence of opioid-using patients than the late surgery cohort. Patients receiving nonsurgical treatment demonstrated the highest 1-year post index cumulative opioid burden, and the early surgery cohort consistently had lower cumulative opioid MME than the late surgery cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Early surgery in patients with lumbar disc herniation is associated with lower long-term average daily MME, incidence of opioid use, and 1-year cumulative MME burden compared with nonsurgical and late surgery treatment approaches.

A Stepwise Replicable Approach to Negotiating Value-driven Supply Chain Contracts for Orthobiologics.

INTRODUCTION: Orthobiologics are increasingly used to augment healing of tissues. Despite growing demand for orthobiologic products, many health systems do not enjoy substantial savings expected with high-volume purchases. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate an institutional program designed to (1) prioritize high-value orthobiologics and (2) incentivize vendor participation in value-driven contractual programs. METHODS: A three-step approach was used to reduce costs through optimization of orthobiologics supply chain. First, surgeons with orthobiologics expertise were engaged in key supply chain purchasing decisions. Second, eight orthobiologics formulary categories were defined. Capitated pricing expectations were established for each product category. Capitated pricing expectations were established for each product using institutional invoice data and market pricing data. In comparison with similar institutions, products offered by multiple vendors were priced at a lower benchmark (10th percentile of market price) than more rare products priced at the 25th percentile of the market price. Pricing expectations were transparent to vendors. Third, a competitive bidding process required vendors to submit pricing proposals for products. Clinicians and supply chain leaders jointly awarded contracts to vendors that met pricing expectations. RESULTS: Compared with our projected estimate of $423,946 savings using capitated product prices, our actual annual savings was $542,216. Seventy-nine percent of savings came from allograft products. Although the number of total vendors decreased from 14 to 11, each of the nine returning vendors received a larger, three-year institutional contract. Average pricing decreased across seven of the eight formulary categories. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates a three-step replicable approach to increase institutional savings for orthobiologic products, engaging clinician experts, and strengthening relationships with select vendors. Vendor consolidation permits a symbiotic win-win relationship: Health systems achieve increased value by reducing unnecessary complexity of multiple contracts, and vendors obtain larger contracts with increased market share. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV study.

Trends, payments, and costs associated with BMP use in Medicare beneficiaries undergoing spinal fusion.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Bone morphogenic protein (BMP) promotes bony fusion but increases costs. Recent trends in BMP use among Medicare patients have not been well-characterized. PURPOSE: To assess utilization trends, complication, payments, and costs associated with BMP use in spinal fusion in a Medicare-insured population. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Retrospective cohort study. PATIENT SAMPLE: Total of 316,070 patients who underwent spinal fusion in a 20% sample of Medicare-insured patients, 2006 to 2015. OUTCOME MEASURES: Utilization trends across time and geography, complications, payments, and costs. METHODS: Patients were stratified by fusion type and diagnosis. Multivariable logistic and linear regression were used to adjust for the effect of baseline characteristics on complications and total payments or cost, respectively. RESULTS: BMP was used in 60,249 cases (19.1%). BMP utilization rates decreased from 23.1% in 2006 to 12.0% in 2015, most significantly in anterior cervical (7.5%-3.1%), posterior cervical (17.0%-8.3%), and posterior lumbar fusions (31.5%-15.8%). There are significant state- and region-level geographic differences in BMP utilization. Across all years, states with the highest BMP use were Indiana (28.5%), Colorado (26.6%), and Nevada (25.7%). States with the lowest BMP use were Maine (2.3%), Vermont (8.2%), and Mississippi (10.4%). After multivariate risk adjustment, BMP use was associated with decreased overall complications in thoracic (odds ratios [OR] [95% confidence intervals [CI]): 0.89 [0.81-0.99]) and anterior lumbar fusions (OR [95% CI]: 0.89 [0.84-0.95]), as well as increased reoperation rates in anterior cervical (OR [95% CI]: 1.11 [1.04-1.19]), posterior cervical (OR (95% CI): 1.14 (1.04-1.25)), thoracic (OR (95% CI): 1.32 (1.23-1.41)), and posterior lumbar fusions (OR (95% CI): 1.11 (1.06-1.16)). BMP use was also associated with greater total costs, independent of fusion type, after multivariate risk adjustment (p<.0001). Payments, however, were comparable between groups in anterior and posterior cervical fusion with or without BMP. BMP use was associated with greater total payments in thoracic, anterior lumbar, and posterior lumbar fusions. Notably, the difference in payments was smaller than the associated cost increase in all fusion types. CONCLUSIONS: BMP use has declined across all fusion types over the last decade, after a peak in 2007. While BMP is associated with greater costs, reimbursement does not increase proportionally with BMP cost.

A Protocol for Reducing Intensive Care Utilization After Craniotomy: A 3-Year Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Craniotomy patients have traditionally received intensive care unit (ICU) care postoperatively. Our institution developed the "Non-Intensive CarE" (NICE) protocol to identify craniotomy patients who did not require postoperative ICU care. OBJECTIVE: To determine the longitudinal impact of the NICE protocol on postoperative length of stay (LOS), ICU utilization, readmissions, and complications. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, our institution's electronic medical record was queried to identify craniotomies before protocol deployment (May 2014-May 2018) and after deployment (May 2018-December 2021). The primary end points were average postoperative LOS and ICU utilization; secondary end points included readmissions, reoperation, and postoperative complications rate. End points were compared between pre- and postintervention cohorts. RESULTS: Four thousand eight hundred thirty-seven craniotomies were performed from May 2014 to December 2021 (2302 preprotocol and 2535 postprotocol). Twenty-one percent of postprotocol craniotomies were enrolled in the NICE protocol. After protocol deployment, the overall postoperative LOS decreased from 4.0 to 3.5 days ( P = .0031), which was driven by deceased postoperative LOS among protocol patients (average 2.4 days). ICU utilization decreased from 57% of patients to 42% ( P < .0001), generating ∼$760 000 in savings. Return to the ICU and complications decreased after protocol deployment. 5.8% of protocol patients had a readmission within 30 days; none could have been prevented through ICU stay. CONCLUSION: The NICE protocol is an effective, sustainable method to increase ICU bed availability and decrease costs without changing outcomes. To our knowledge, this study features the largest series of patients enrolling in an ICU utilization reduction protocol. Careful patient selection is a requirement for the success of this approach.

Neurosurgical Utilization, Charges, and Reimbursement After the Affordable Care Act: Trends From 2011 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 50 million Americans receive Medicare health care coverage. Prior studies have established a downward trend in Medicare reimbursement for commonly billed surgical procedures, but it is unclear whether these trends hold true across all neurosurgical procedures. OBJECTIVE: To assess trends in utilization, charges, and reimbursement by Medicare for neurosurgical procedures after passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010. METHODS: We review yearly Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary datasets from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for all procedures billed by neurosurgeons to Medicare Part B between 2011 and 2019. Procedural coding was categorized into cranial, spine, vascular, peripheral nerve, and radiosurgery cases. Weighted averages for charges and reimbursements adjusted for inflation were calculated. The ratio of the weighted mean reimbursement to weighted mean charge was calculated as the reimbursement-to-charge ratio, representing the proportion of charges reimbursed by Medicare. RESULTS: Overall enrollment-adjusted utilization decreased by 12.1%. Utilization decreased by 24.0% in the inpatient setting but increased by 639% at ambulatory surgery centers and 80.2% in the outpatient setting. Inflation-adjusted, weighted mean charges decreased by 4.0% while reimbursement decreased by 4.6%. Procedure groups that saw increases in reimbursement included cervical spine surgery, cranial functional and epilepsy procedures, cranial pain procedures, and endovascular procedures. Ambulatory surgery centers saw the greatest increase in charges and reimbursements. CONCLUSION: Although overall reimbursement declined across the study period, substantial differences emerged across procedural categories. We further find a notable shift in utilization and reimbursement for neurosurgical procedures done in non-inpatient care settings.

Quality and patient safety research in pediatric neurosurgery: a review.

BACKGROUND: In 2001, the National Academy of Medicine, formerly known as the Institute of Medicine (IOM), published their seminal work, Crossing the Quality Chasm: A New Health System for the 21st Century. In this work, the authors called for improved safety, effectiveness, patient-centeredness, timeliness, efficiency, and equity in the United States' healthcare system. Two decades after the publication of this work, healthcare costs continue to rise, but outcomes lag other nations. The objective of this narrative review is to describe research efforts in pediatric neurosurgery with respect to the six quality aims proposed by the IOM, and highlight additional research opportunities. METHODS: PubMed, Google Scholar, and EBSCOhost were queried to identify studies in pediatric neurosurgery that have addressed the aims proposed by the IOM. Studies were summarized and synthesized to develop a set of research opportunities to advance quality of care. RESULTS: Twenty-three studies were reviewed which focused on the six quality aims proposed by the IOM. Out of these studies, five research opportunities emerged: (1) To examine performance of tools of care, (2) To understand processes surrounding care delivery, (3) To conduct cost-effectiveness analyses for a broader range of neurosurgical conditions, (4) To identify barriers driving healthcare disparities, and (5) To understand patients' and caregivers' experiences receiving care, and subsequently develop tools and programs to address their needs and preferences. CONCLUSION: There is a growing body of literature examining quality in pediatric neurosurgical care across all aims proposed by the IOM. However, there remains important gaps in the literature that, if addressed, will advance the quality of pediatric neurosurgical care delivery.

Health Care Resource Utilization in Management of Opioid-Naive Patients With Newly Diagnosed Neck Pain.

Importance: Research has uncovered heterogeneity and inefficiencies in the management of idiopathic low back pain, but few studies have examined longitudinal care patterns following newly diagnosed neck pain. Objective: To understand health care utilization in patients with new-onset idiopathic neck pain. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used nationally sourced longitudinal data from the IBM Watson Health MarketScan claims database (2007-2016). Participants included adult patients with newly diagnosed neck pain, no recent opioid use, and at least 1 year of continuous postdiagnosis follow-up. Exclusion criteria included prior or concomitant diagnosis of traumatic cervical disc dislocation, vertebral fractures, myelopathy, and/or cancer. Only patients with at least 1 year of prediagnosis lookback were included. Data analysis was performed from January 2021 to January 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome of interest was 1-year postdiagnosis health care expenditures, including costs, opioid use, and health care service utilization. Early services were those received within 30 days of diagnosis. Multivariable regression models and regression-adjusted statistics were used. Results: In total, 679 030 patients (310 665 men [45.6%]) met the inclusion criteria, of whom 7858 (1.2%) underwent surgery within 1 year of diagnosis. The mean (SD) age was 44.62 (14.87) years among nonsurgical patients and 49.69 (9.53) years among surgical patients. Adjusting for demographics and comorbidities, 1-year regression-adjusted health care costs were $24 267.55 per surgical patient and $515.69 per nonsurgical patient. Across all health care services, $95 379 949 was accounted for by nonsurgical patients undergoing early imaging who did not receive any additional conservative therapy or epidural steroid injections, for a mean (SD) of $477.53 ($1375.60) per patient and median (IQR) of $120.60 ($20.70-$452.37) per patient. On average, patients not undergoing surgery, physical therapy, chiropractic manipulative therapy, or epidural steroid injection, who underwent either early advanced imaging (magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography) or both early advanced and radiographic imaging, accumulated significantly elevated health care costs ($850.69 and $1181.67, respectively). Early conservative therapy was independently associated with 24.8% (95% CI, 23.5%-26.2%) lower health care costs. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, early imaging without subsequent intervention was associated with significantly increased health care spending among patients with newly diagnosed idiopathic neck pain. Early conservative therapy was associated with lower costs, even with increased frequency of therapeutic services, and may have reduced long-term care inefficiency.

An integrated risk model stratifying seizure risk following brain tumor resection among seizure-naive patients without antiepileptic prophylaxis.

OBJECTIVE: The natural history of seizure risk after brain tumor resection is not well understood. Identifying seizure-naive patients at highest risk for postoperative seizure events remains a clinical need. In this study, the authors sought to develop a predictive modeling strategy for anticipating postcraniotomy seizures after brain tumor resection. METHODS: The IBM Watson Health MarketScan Claims Database was canvassed for antiepileptic drug (AED)- and seizure-naive patients who underwent brain tumor resection (2007-2016). The primary event of interest was short-term seizure risk (within 90 days postdischarge). The secondary event of interest was long-term seizure risk during the follow-up period. To model early-onset and long-term postdischarge seizure risk, a penalized logistic regression classifier and multivariable Cox regression model, respectively, were built, which integrated patient-, tumor-, and hospitalization-specific features. To compare empirical seizure rates, equally sized cohort tertiles were created and labeled as low risk, medium risk, and high risk. RESULTS: Of 5470 patients, 983 (18.0%) had a postdischarge-coded seizure event. The integrated binary classification approach for predicting early-onset seizures outperformed models using feature subsets (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.751, hospitalization features only AUC = 0.667, patient features only AUC = 0.603, and tumor features only AUC = 0.694). Held-out validation patient cases that were predicted by the integrated model to have elevated short-term risk more frequently developed seizures within 90 days of discharge (24.1% high risk vs 3.8% low risk, p < 0.001). Compared with those in the low-risk tertile by the long-term seizure risk model, patients in the medium-risk and high-risk tertiles had 2.13 (95% CI 1.45-3.11) and 6.24 (95% CI 4.40-8.84) times higher long-term risk for postdischarge seizures. Only patients predicted as high risk developed status epilepticus within 90 days of discharge (1.7% high risk vs 0% low risk, p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The authors have presented a risk-stratified model that accurately predicted short- and long-term seizure risk in patients who underwent brain tumor resection, which may be used to stratify future study of postoperative AED prophylaxis in highest-risk patient subpopulations.

Prediction of Discharge Status and Readmissions after Resection of Intradural Spinal Tumors.

OBJECTIVE: Intradural spinal tumors are uncommon and while associations between clinical characteristics and surgical outcomes have been explored, there remains a paucity of literature unifying diverse predictors into an integrated risk model. To predict postresection outcomes for patients with spinal tumors. METHODS: IBM MarketScan Claims Database was queried for adult patients receiving surgery for intradural tumors between 2007 and 2016. Primary outcomes-of-interest were nonhome discharge and 90-day postdischarge readmissions. Secondary outcomes included hospitalization duration and postoperative complications. Risk modeling was developed using a regularized logistic regression framework (LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and validated in a withheld subset. RESULTS: A total of 5,060 adult patients were included. Most surgeries utilized a posterior approach (n = 5,023, 99.3%) and tumors were most commonly found in the thoracic region (n = 1,941, 38.4%), followed by the lumbar (n = 1,781, 35.2%) and cervical (n = 1,294, 25.6%) regions. Compared to models using only tumor-specific or patient-specific features, our integrated models demonstrated better discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] [nonhome discharge] = 0.786; AUC [90-day readmissions] = 0.693) and accuracy (Brier score [nonhome discharge] = 0.155; Brier score [90-day readmissions] = 0.093). Compared to those predicted to be lowest risk, patients predicted to be highest-risk for nonhome discharge required continued care 16.3 times more frequently (64.5% vs. 3.9%). Similarly, patients predicted to be at highest risk for postdischarge readmissions were readmitted 7.3 times as often as those predicted to be at lowest risk (32.6% vs. 4.4%). CONCLUSION: Using a diverse set of clinical characteristics spanning tumor-, patient-, and hospitalization-derived data, we developed and validated risk models integrating diverse clinical data for predicting nonhome discharge and postdischarge readmissions.

External validation of a predictive model of adverse events following spine surgery.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: We lack models that reliably predict 30-day postoperative adverse events (AEs) following spine surgery. PURPOSE: We externally validated a previously developed predictive model for common 30-day adverse events (AEs) after spine surgery. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: This prospective cohort study utilizes inpatient and outpatient data from a tertiary academic medical center. PATIENT SAMPLE: We assessed a prospective cohort of all 276 adult patients undergoing spine surgery in the Department of Neurosurgery at a tertiary academic institution between April 1, 2018 and October 31, 2018. No exclusion criteria were applied. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of observed AEs was compared with predicted incidence of AEs. Fifteen assessed AEs included: pulmonary complications, congestive heart failure, neurological complications, pneumonia, cardiac dysrhythmia, renal failure, myocardial infarction, wound infection, pulmonary embolus, deep venous thrombosis, wound hematoma, other wound complication, urinary tract infection, delirium, and other infection. METHODS: Our group previously developed the Risk Assessment Tool for Adverse Events after Spine Surgery (RAT-Spine), a predictive model of AEs within 30 days following spine surgery using a cohort of approximately one million patients from combined Medicare and MarketScan databases. We applied RAT-Spine to the single academic institution prospective cohort by entering each patient's preoperative medical and demographic characteristics and surgical type. The model generated a patient-specific overall risk score ranging from 0 to 1 representing the probability of occurrence of any AE. The predicted risks are presented as absolute percent risk and divided into low (<17%), medium (17%-28%), and high (>28%). RESULTS: Among the 276 patients followed prospectively, 76 experienced at least one 30-day postoperative AE. Slightly more than half of the cohort were women (53.3%). The median age was slightly lower in the non-AE cohort (63 vs. 66.5 years old). Patients with Medicaid comprised 2.5% of the non-AE cohort and 6.6% of the AE cohort. Spinal fusion was performed in 59.1% of cases, which was comparable across cohorts. There was good agreement between the predicted AE and observed AE rates, Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.64 (95% CI 0.56-0.710). The incidence of observed AEs in the prospective cohort was 17.8% among the low-risk group, 23.0% in the medium-risk group, and 38.4% in the high risk group (p =.003). CONCLUSIONS: We externally validated a model for postoperative AEs following spine surgery (RAT-Spine). The results are presented as low-, moderate-, and high-risk designations.

Risk Factors for Revision Surgery After Primary Adult Thoracolumbar Deformity Surgery.

STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to identify the risk factors for revision surgery within 2 years of patients undergoing primary adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Previous literature reports estimate 20% of patients undergoing thoracolumbar ASD correction undergo reoperation within 2 years. There is limited published data regarding specific risk factors for reoperation in ASD surgery in the short term and long term. METHODS: The authors queried the MarketScan database in order to identify patients who were diagnosed with a spinal deformity and underwent ASD surgery from 2007 to 2015. Patient-level factors and revision risk were investigated during 2 years after primary ASD surgery. Patients under the age of 18 years and those with any prior history of trauma or tumor were excluded from this study. RESULTS: A total 7422 patients underwent ASD surgery during 2007-2015 in the data set. Revision rates were 13.1% at 90 days, 14.5% at 6 months, 16.7% at 1 year, and 19.3% at 2 years. In multivariate multiple logistic regression analysis, obesity [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.58, P<0.001] and tobacco use (adjusted OR: 1.38, P=0.0011) were associated with increased odds of reoperation within 2 years. Patients with a combined anterior-posterior approach had lower odds of reoperation compared with those with posterior only approach (adjusted OR: 0.66, P=0.0117). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and tobacco are associated with increased odds of revision surgery within 2 years of index ASD surgery. Male sex and combined surgical approach are associated with decreased odds of revision surgery.

The impact of osteoporosis on adult deformity surgery outcomes in Medicare patients.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the impact of osteoporosis (OS) on postoperative outcomes in Medicare patients undergoing ASD surgery. BACKGROUND: Patients with OP and advanced age experience higher than average rates of ASD. However, poor bone density could undermine the durability of a deformity correction. METHODS: We queried the MarketScan Medicare Supplemental database to identify patients Medicare patients who underwent ASD surgery from 2007 to 2016. RESULTS: A total of 2564 patients met the inclusion criteria of this study, of whom n = 971 (61.0%) were diagnosed with osteoporosis. Patients with OP had a similar 90-day postoperative complication rates (OP: 54.6% vs. non-OP: 49.2%, p = 0.0076, not significant after multivariate regression correction). This was primarily driven by posthemorrhagic anemia (37.6% in OP, vs. 33.1% in non-OP). Rates of revision surgery were similar at 90 days (non-OP 15.0%, OP 16.8%), but by 2 years, OP patients had a significantly higher reoperation rate (30.4% vs. 22.9%, p < 0.0001). In multivariate regression analysis, OP increased odds for revision surgery at 1 year (OR 1.4) and 2 years (OR 1.5) following surgery (all p < 0.05). OP was also an independent predictor of readmission at all time points (90 days, OR 1.3, p < 0.005). CONCLUSION: Medicare patients with OP had elevated rates of complications, reoperations, and outpatient costs after undergoing primary ASD surgery.