Spread of networked populations is determined by the interplay between dispersal behavior and habitat configuration.

Predicting the spread of populations across fragmented habitats is vital if we are to manage their persistence in the long term. We applied network theory with a model and an experiment to show that spread rate is jointly defined by the configuration of habitat networks (i.e., the arrangement and length of connections between habitat fragments) and the movement behavior of individuals. We found that population spread rate in the model was well predicted by algebraic connectivity of the habitat network. A multigeneration experiment with the microarthropod Folsomia candida validated this model prediction. The realized habitat connectivity and spread rate were determined by the interaction between dispersal behavior and habitat configuration, such that the network configurations that facilitated the fastest spread changed depending on the shape of the species' dispersal kernel. Predicting the spread rate of populations in fragmented landscapes requires combining knowledge of species-specific dispersal kernels and the spatial configuration of habitat networks. This information can be used to design landscapes to manage the spread and persistence of species in fragmented habitats.

Operational assessment tool for forest carbon dynamics for the United States: a new spatially explicit approach linking the LUCAS and CBM-CFS3 models.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the carbon balance of forested ecosystems has been the subject of intense study involving the development of numerous methodological approaches. Forest inventories, processes-based biogeochemical models, and inversion methods have all been used to estimate the contribution of U.S. forests to the global terrestrial carbon sink. However, estimates have ranged widely, largely based on the approach used, and no single system is appropriate for operational carbon quantification and forecasting. We present estimates obtained using a new spatially explicit modeling framework utilizing a "gain-loss" approach, by linking the LUCAS model of land-use and land-cover change with the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). RESULTS: We estimated forest ecosystems in the conterminous United States stored 52.0 Pg C across all pools. Between 2001 and 2020, carbon storage increased by 2.4 Pg C at an annualized rate of 126 Tg C year-1. Our results broadly agree with other studies using a variety of other methods to estimate the forest carbon sink. Climate variability and change was the primary driver of annual variability in the size of the net carbon sink, while land-use and land-cover change and disturbance were the primary drivers of the magnitude, reducing annual sink strength by 39%. Projections of carbon change under climate scenarios for the western U.S. find diverging estimates of carbon balance depending on the scenario. Under a moderate emissions scenario we estimated a 38% increase in the net sink of carbon, while under a high emissions scenario we estimated a reversal from a net sink to net source. CONCLUSIONS: The new approach provides a fully coupled modeling framework capable of producing spatially explicit estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes under a range of historical and/or future socioeconomic, climate, and land management futures.

Effects of network modularity on the spread of perturbation impact in experimental metapopulations.

Networks with a modular structure are expected to have a lower risk of global failure. However, this theoretical result has remained untested until now. We used an experimental microarthropod metapopulation to test the effect of modularity on the response to perturbation. We perturbed one local population and measured the spread of the impact of this perturbation, both within and between modules. Our results show the buffering capacity of modular networks. To assess the generality of our findings, we then analyzed a dynamical model of our system. We show that in the absence of perturbations, modularity is negatively correlated with metapopulation size. However, even when a small local perturbation occurs, this negative effect is offset by a buffering effect that protects the majority of the nodes from the perturbation.

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land-use change.

Designing connected landscapes is among the most widespread strategies for achieving biodiversity conservation targets. The challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying the connectivity needs of multiple species at multiple spatial scales under uncertain climate and land-use change. To evaluate the contribution of remnant habitat fragments to the connectivity of regional habitat networks, we developed a method to integrate uncertainty in climate and land-use change projections with the latest developments in network-connectivity research and spatial, multipurpose conservation prioritization. We used land-use change simulations to explore robustness of species' habitat networks to alternative development scenarios. We applied our method to 14 vertebrate focal species of periurban Montreal, Canada. Accounting for connectivity in spatial prioritization strongly modified conservation priorities and the modified priorities were robust to uncertain climate change. Setting conservation priorities based on habitat quality and connectivity maintained a large proportion of the region's connectivity, despite anticipated habitat loss due to climate and land-use change. The application of connectivity criteria alongside habitat-quality criteria for protected-area design was efficient with respect to the amount of area that needs protection and did not necessarily amplify trade-offs among conservation criteria. Our approach and results are being applied in and around Montreal and are well suited to the design of ecological networks and green infrastructure for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in other regions, in particular regions around large cities, where connectivity is critically low.

Deconstructing the relationships between phylogenetic diversity and ecology: a case study on ecosystem functioning.

Recent studies have supported a link between phylogenetic diversity and various ecological properties including ecosystem function. However, such studies typically assume that phylogenetic branches of equivalent length are more or less interchangeable. Here we suggest that there is a need to consider not only branch lengths but also their placement on the phylogeny. We demonstrate how two common indices of network centrality can be used to describe the evolutionary distinctiveness of network elements (nodes and branches) on a phylogeny. If phylogenetic diversity enhances ecosystem function via complementarity and the representation of functional diversity, we would predict a correlation between evolutionary distinctiveness of network elements and their contribution to ecosystem process. In contrast, if one or a few evolutionary innovations play key roles in ecosystem function, the relationship between evolutionary distinctiveness and functional contribution may be weak or absent. We illustrate how network elements associated with high functional contribution can be identified from regressions between phylogenetic diversity and productivity using a well-known empirical data set on plant productivity from the Cedar Creek Long-Term Ecological Research. We find no association between evolutionary distinctiveness and ecosystem functioning, but we are able to identify phylogenetic elements associated with species of known high functional contribution within the Fabaceae. Our perspective provides a useful guide in the search for ecological traits linking diversity and ecosystem function, and suggests a more nuanced consideration of phylogenetic diversity is required in the conservation and biodiversity-ecosystem-function literature.

The potential connectivity of waterhole networks and the effectiveness of a protected area under various drought scenarios.

Landscape connectivity is considered a priority for ecosystem conservation because it may mitigate the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss. Climate change predictions suggest changes in precipitation regimes, which will affect the availability of water resources, with potential consequences for landscape connectivity. The Greater Calakmul Region of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) has experienced a 16% decrease in precipitation over the last 50 years, which we hypothesise has affected water resource connectivity. We used a network model of connectivity, for three large endangered species (Baird's tapir, white-lipped peccary and jaguar), to assess the effect of drought on waterhole availability and connectivity in a forested landscape inside and adjacent to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. We used reported travel distances and home ranges for our species to establish movement distances in our model. Specifically, we compared the effects of 10 drought scenarios on the number of waterholes (nodes) and the subsequent changes in network structure and node importance. Our analysis revealed that drought dramatically influenced spatial structure and potential connectivity of the network. Our results show that waterhole connectivity and suitable habitat (area surrounding waterholes) is lost faster inside than outside the reserve for all three study species, an outcome that may drive them outside the reserve boundaries. These results emphasize the need to assess how the variability in the availability of seasonal water resource may affect the viability of animal populations under current climate change inside and outside protected areas.

Applying circuit theory for corridor expansion and management at regional scales: tiling, pinch points, and omnidirectional connectivity.

Connectivity models are useful tools that improve the ability of researchers and managers to plan land use for conservation and preservation. Most connectivity models function in a point-to-point or patch-to-patch fashion, limiting their use for assessing connectivity over very large areas. In large or highly fragmented systems, there may be so many habitat patches of interest that assessing connectivity among all possible combinations is prohibitive. To overcome these conceptual and practical limitations, we hypothesized that minor adaptation of the Circuitscape model can allow the creation of omnidirectional connectivity maps illustrating flow paths and variations in the ease of travel across a large study area. We tested this hypothesis in a 24,300 km(2) study area centered on the Montérégie region near Montréal, Québec. We executed the circuit model in overlapping tiles covering the study region. Current was passed across the surface of each tile in orthogonal directions, and then the tiles were reassembled to create directional and omnidirectional maps of connectivity. The resulting mosaics provide a continuous view of connectivity in the entire study area at the full original resolution. We quantified differences between mosaics created using different tile and buffer sizes and developed a measure of the prominence of seams in mosaics formed with this approach. The mosaics clearly show variations in current flow driven by subtle aspects of landscape composition and configuration. Shown prominently in mosaics are pinch points, narrow corridors where organisms appear to be required to traverse when moving through the landscape. Using modest computational resources, these continuous, fine-scale maps of nearly unlimited size allow the identification of movement paths and barriers that affect connectivity. This effort develops a powerful new application of circuit models by pinpointing areas of importance for conservation, broadening the potential for addressing intriguing questions about resource use, animal distribution, and movement.

Connectivity for conservation: a framework to classify network measures.

Graph theory, network theory, and circuit theory are increasingly being used to quantify multiple aspects of habitat connectivity and protected areas. There has been an explosive proliferation of network (connectivity) measures, resulting in over 60 measures for ecologists to now choose from. Conceptual clarification on the ecological meaning of these network measures and their interrelationships is overdue. We present a framework that categorizes network measures based on the connectivity property that they quantify (i.e., route-specific flux, route redundancy, route vulnerability, and connected habitat area) and the structural level of the habitat network to which they apply. The framework reveals a lack of network measures in the categories of "route-specific flux among neighboring habitat patches" and "route redundancy at the level of network components." We propose that network motif and path redundancy measures can be developed to fill the gaps in these categories. The value of this framework lies in its ability to inform the selection and application of network measures. Ultimately, it will allow a better comparison among graph, network, and circuit analyses, which will improve the design and management of connected landscapes.

The disentangled bank: how loss of habitat fragments and disassembles ecological networks.

Habitat transformation is one of the leading causes of changes in biodiversity and the breakdown of ecosystem function and services. The impacts of habitat transformation on biodiversity are complex and can be difficult to test and demonstrate. Network approaches to biodiversity science have provided a powerful set of tools and models that are beginning to present new insight into the structural and functional effects of habitat transformation on complex ecological systems. We propose a framework for studying the ways in which habitat loss and fragmentation jointly affect biodiversity by altering both habitat and ecological interaction networks. That is, the explicit study of "networks of networks" is required to understand the impacts of habitat change on biodiversity. We conduct a broad review of network methods and results, with the aim of revealing the common approaches used by landscape ecology and community ecology. We find that while a lot is known about the consequences of habitat transformation for habitat network topology and for the structure and function of simple antagonistic and mutualistic interaction networks, few studies have evaluated the consequences for large interaction networks with complex and spatially explicit architectures. Moreover, almost no studies have been focused on the continuous feedback between the spatial structure and dynamics of the habitat network and the structure and dynamics of the interaction networks inhabiting the habitat network. We conclude that theory and experiments that tackle the ecology of networks of networks are needed to provide a deeper understanding of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes.