The responsibility turnThe Politics of Modelling: Numbers Between Science and Policy Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore, Eds. Oxford University Press, 2023. 272 pp.

Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic inspire a guide to recognizing the politics of modeling.

Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Lake Erie (GRIP-E).

Hydrologic model intercomparison studies help to evaluate the agility of models to simulate variables such as streamflow, evaporation, and soil moisture. This study is the third in a sequence of the Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Projects. The densely populated Lake Erie watershed studied here is an important international lake that has experienced recent flooding and shoreline erosion alongside excessive nutrient loads that have contributed to lake eutrophication. Understanding the sources and pathways of flows is critical to solve the complex issues facing this watershed. Seventeen hydrologic and land-surface models of different complexity are set up over this domain using the same meteorological forcings, and their simulated streamflows at 46 calibration and seven independent validation stations are compared. Results show that: (1) the good performance of Machine Learning models during calibration decreases significantly in validation due to the limited amount of training data; (2) models calibrated at individual stations perform equally well in validation; and (3) most distributed models calibrated over the entire domain have problems in simulating urban areas but outperform the other models in validation.

Integrated modelling to assess the impacts of water stress in a transboundary river basin: Bridging local-scale water resource operations to a river basin economy.

In this study, we develop a hydro-economic modelling framework for river-basin scales by integrating a water resources system model and an economic model. This framework allows for the representation of both local-scale features, such as reservoirs, diversions, and water licenses and priorities, and regional- and provincial-scale features, such as cross-sectoral and inter-regional connectedness and trade flows. This framework is able to: (a) represent nonlinearities and interactions that cannot be represented by either of typical water resources or economic models; (b) analyze the sensitivity of macro-scale economy to different local water management decisions (called 'decision levers' herein); and (c) identify water allocation strategies that are economically sound across sectors and regions. This integrated model is applied to the multi-jurisdictional Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada. Our findings reveal that an economically optimal water allocation strategy can mitigate the economic losses of water stress up to 80% compared to the existing water allocation strategy. We draw lessons from our analysis and discuss how integrated inter-regional hydro-economic modelling can benefit vulnerability assessment and robust decision making.

Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach.

System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socio-environmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central to the system-of-systems approaches is the representation of systems in a multi-tier framework with nested scales. Current modeling paradigms, however, have disciplinary-specific lineage, leading to inconsistencies in the conceptualization and integration of socio-environmental systems. In this paper, a multidisciplinary team of researchers, from engineering, natural and social sciences, have come together to detail socio-technical practices and challenges that arise in the consideration of scale throughout the socio-environmental modeling process. We identify key paths forward, focused on explicit consideration of scale and uncertainty, strengthening interdisciplinary communication, and improvement of the documentation process. We call for a grand vision (and commensurate funding) for holistic system-of-systems research that engages researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers in a multi-tiered process for the co-creation of knowledge and solutions to major socio-environmental problems.

A new formulation for feedforward neural networks.

Feedforward neural network is one of the most commonly used function approximation techniques and has been applied to a wide variety of problems arising from various disciplines. However, neural networks are black-box models having multiple challenges/difficulties associated with training and generalization. This paper initially looks into the internal behavior of neural networks and develops a detailed interpretation of the neural network functional geometry. Based on this geometrical interpretation, a new set of variables describing neural networks is proposed as a more effective and geometrically interpretable alternative to the traditional set of network weights and biases. Then, this paper develops a new formulation for neural networks with respect to the newly defined variables; this reformulated neural network (ReNN) is equivalent to the common feedforward neural network but has a less complex error response surface. To demonstrate the learning ability of ReNN, in this paper, two training methods involving a derivative-based (a variation of backpropagation) and a derivative-free optimization algorithms are employed. Moreover, a new measure of regularization on the basis of the developed geometrical interpretation is proposed to evaluate and improve the generalization ability of neural networks. The value of the proposed geometrical interpretation, the ReNN approach, and the new regularization measure are demonstrated across multiple test problems. Results show that ReNN can be trained more effectively and efficiently compared to the common neural networks and the proposed regularization measure is an effective indicator of how a network would perform in terms of generalization.