Spatial mapping of land susceptibility to dust emissions using optimization of attentive Interpretable Tabular Learning (TabNet) model.

Dust pollution poses significant risks to human health, air quality, and food safety, necessitating the identification of dust occurrence and the development of dust susceptibility maps (DSMs) to mitigate its effects. This research aims to detect dust occurrence using satellite images and prepare a DSM for Bushehr province, Iran, by enhancing the attentive interpretable tabular learning (TabNet) model through three swarm-based metaheuristic algorithms: particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey wolf optimizer (GWO), and hunger games search (HGS). A spatial database incorporating dust occurrence areas was created using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from 2002 to 2022, including 15 influential criteria related to climate, soil, topography, and land cover. Four models were employed for modeling and DSM generation: TabNet, TabNet-PSO, TabNet-GWO, and TabNet-HGS. Evaluation of the modeling results using performance metrics indicated that the TabNet-HGS model outperformed the other models in both training (mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.055, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.1, coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.959), and testing (MAE = 0.063, RMSE = 0.114, R2 = 0.947) data. Following TabNet-HGS, the TabNet-PSO, TabNet-GWO, and TabNet models demonstrated progressively lower accuracy. The validation of the DSM was performed by assessing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, revealing that the TabNet-HGS, TabNet-PSO, TabNet-GWO, and TabNet models exhibited the highest modeling accuracy, with corresponding area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.994, 0.986, 0.98, and 0.832, respectively. These results highlight the enhanced accuracy of dust susceptibility modeling achieved by integrating swarm-based metaheuristic algorithms with the TabNet model. The dust susceptibility map provides valuable insights into the sources, pathways, and impacts of dust particles on the environment and human health in the study area.

A new approach based on biology-inspired metaheuristic algorithms in combination with random forest to enhance the flood susceptibility mapping.

Flash floods are one of the worst natural disasters, causing massive economic losses and many deaths. Creating a flood susceptibility map (FSM) that pinpoints the areas most at risk of flooding is a crucial non-structural solution for managing floods. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of combinations of the random forest (RF) model with three biology-inspired metaheuristic algorithms, namely invasive weed optimization (IWO), slime mould algorithm (SMA), and satin bowerbird optimization (SBO), for flood susceptibility mapping in Estahban town, Iran. Initially, synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) (Sentinel-1) and optical (Landsat-8) satellite images were integrated to monitor the flooded areas during the July 2022 monsoon in the study area. A dataset of 509 flood occurrence points was created to identify flood-prone areas using remote sensing techniques, considering the monitored flood areas. The dataset also included twelve flood-related criteria: topography, land cover, and climate. The holdout method was employed for modeling, with a ratio of 70:30 used for the train/test split. Data pre-processing techniques were conducted to improve model performance, including determining criteria importance and addressing multicollinearity issues using certainty factor (CF), multicollinearity, and information gain ratio (IGR) methods. Then FSM was prepared using RF, RF-IWO, RF-SBO, and RF-SMA models. The findings of this research revealed that the RF-IWO model was the best predictive model of flood susceptibility modeling, with root-mean-square-error (RMSE) (0.211 and 0.0.27), mean-absolute-error (MAE) (0.103 and 0.15), and coefficient-of-determination (R2) (0.821 and 0.707) in the training and testing phases, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of FSM revealed that the most accurate models were the RF-IWO (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.983), RF-SBO (AUC = 0.979), RF-SMA (AUC = 0.963), and RF (AUC = 0.959), respectively. Integrating biology-inspired computing algorithms with machine learning algorithms presents a novel approach to enhancing the accuracy of FSMs.

Dust detection and susceptibility mapping by aiding satellite imagery time series and integration of ensemble machine learning with evolutionary algorithms.

To mitigate the impact of dust on human health and the environment, it is crucial to create a model and map that identifies the areas susceptible to dust. The present study focused on identifying dust occurrences in the Bushehr province of Iran between 2002 and 2022 using moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. Subsequently, an ensemble machine learning model was improved to prepare a dust susceptibility map (DSM). The study employed differential evolution (DE), genetic algorithm (GA), and flower pollination algorithm (FPA) - three evolutionary algorithms - to enhance the random forest (RF) ensemble model. A spatial database was created for modeling, including 519 dust occurrence points (extracted from MODIS imagery) and 15 factors affecting dust (Slope, bulk density, aspect, clay, altitude, sand, rainfall, lithology, soil order, distance to river, soil texture, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil water content, land cover, and wind speed). By utilizing the differential evolution (DE) algorithm, we determined the significance of these factors in impacting dust occurrences. The results indicated that altitude, wind speed, and land cover were the most influential factors, while the distance to the river, bulk density, and soil texture had less impact on dust occurrence. Data were preprocessed using multicollinearity analysis and the frequency ratio (FR) approach. For this research, three RF-based meta-heuristic optimization algorithms, namely RF-FPA, RF-GA, and RF-DE, were created for DSM. The effectiveness prediction of the constructed models by indexes of root-mean-square-error (RMSE), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC), and coefficient of determination (R2) from best to worst were RF-DE (RMSE = 0.131, AUC-ROC = 0.988, and R2 = 0.93), RF-GA (RMSE = 0.141, AUC-ROC = 0.986, and R2 = 0.919), RF-FPA (RMSE = 0.157, AUC-ROC = 0.981, and R2 = 0.9), and RF (RMSE = 0.173, AUC-ROC = 0.964, and R2 = 0.878). The results showed that combining evolutionary algorithms with an RF model improves the accuracy of dust susceptibility modeling.

Application of genetic algorithm in optimization parallel ensemble-based machine learning algorithms to flood susceptibility mapping using radar satellite imagery.

Floods are the natural disaster that occurs most frequently due to the weather and causes the most widespread destruction. The purpose of the proposed research is to analyze flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) in the Sulaymaniyah province of Iraq. This study employed a genetic algorithm (GA) to fine-tune parallel ensemble-based machine learning algorithms (random forest (RF) and bootstrap aggregation (Bagging)). Four machine learning algorithms (RF, Bagging, RF-GA, and Bagging-GA) were used to build FSM in the study area. To provide inputs into parallel ensemble-based machine learning algorithms, we gathered and processed data from meteorological (Rainfall), satellite image (flood inventory, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), aspect, land cover, altitude, stream power index (SPI), plan curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), slope) and geographic sources (geology). For this research, Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images were utilized to locate flooded areas and create an inventory map of floods. To train and validate the model, we employed 70 % and 30 % of 160 selected flood locations, respectively. Multicollinearity, frequency ratio (FR), and Geodetector methods were used for data preprocessing. Four metrics were utilized to assess the FSM performance: the root mean square error (RMSE), the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), the Taylor diagram, and the seed cell area index (SCAI). The results exhibited that all the suggested models have high accuracy of prediction, but the performance of Bagging-GA (RMSE (Train = 0.1793, Test = 0.4543)) was slightly better than RF-GA (RMSE (Train = 0.1803, Test = 0.4563)), Bagging (RMSE (Train = 0.2191, Test = 0.4566)), and RF (RMSE (Train = 0.2529, Test = 0.4724)). According to the ROC index, the Bagging-GA model (AUC = 0.935) was the most accurate in flood susceptibility modeling, followed by the RF-GA (AUC = 0.904), the Bagging (AUC = 0.872), and the RF (AUC = 0.847) models. The study's identification of high-risk flood zones and the most significant factors contributing to flooding make it a helpful resource for flood management.

Coronavirus disease vulnerability map using a geographic information system (GIS) from 16 April to 16 May 2020.

In recent months, the world has been affected by the infectious coronavirus disease and Iran is one of the most affected countries. The Iranian government's health facilities for an urgent investigation of all provinces do not exist simultaneously. There is no management tool to identify the vulnerabilities of Iranian provinces in prioritizing health services. The aim of this study was to prepare a coronavirus vulnerability map of Iranian provinces using geographic information system (GIS) to monitor the disease. For this purpose, four criteria affecting coronavirus, including population density, percentage of older people, temperature, and humidity, were prepared in the GIS. A multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was used to determine the vulnerability of coronavirus in Iran. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model was used to predict vulnerability in the next two months. Results indicated that, population density and older people have a more significant impact on coronavirus in Iran. Based on MGWR models, Tehran, Mazandaran, Gilan, and Alborz provinces were more vulnerable to coronavirus in February and March. The ANFIS model findings showed that West Azerbaijan, Zanjan, Fars, Yazd, Semnan, Sistan and Baluchistan, and Tehran provinces were more vulnerable in April and May.

COVID-19 Risk Mapping with Considering Socio-Economic Criteria Using Machine Learning Algorithms.

The reduction of population concentration in some urban land uses is one way to prevent and reduce the spread of COVID-19 disease. Therefore, the objective of this study is to prepare the risk mapping of COVID-19 in Tehran, Iran, using machine learning algorithms according to socio-economic criteria of land use. Initially, a spatial database was created using 2282 locations of patients with COVID-19 from 2 February 2020 to 21 March 2020 and eight socio-economic land uses affecting the disease-public transport stations, supermarkets, banks, automated teller machines (ATMs), bakeries, pharmacies, fuel stations, and hospitals. The modeling was performed using three machine learning algorithms that included random forest (RF), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and logistic regression (LR). Feature selection was performed using the OneR method, and the correlation between land uses was obtained using the Pearson coefficient. We deployed 70% and 30% of COVID-19 patient locations for modeling and validation, respectively. The results of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) showed that the RF algorithm, which had a value of 0.803, had the highest modeling accuracy, which was followed by the ANFIS algorithm with a value of 0.758 and the LR algorithm with a value of 0.747. The results showed that the central and the eastern regions of Tehran are more at risk. Public transportation stations and pharmacies were the most correlated with the location of COVID-19 patients in Tehran, according to the results of the OneR technique, RF, and LR algorithms. The results of the Pearson correlation showed that pharmacies and banks are the most incompatible in distribution, and the density of these land uses in Tehran has caused the prevalence of COVID-19.

Spatio-temporal modeling of PM2.5 risk mapping using three machine learning algorithms.

Urban air pollution is one of the most critical issues that affect the environment, community health, economy, and management of urban areas. From a public health perspective, PM2.5 is one of the primary air pollutants, especially in Tehran's metropolis. Owing to the different patterns of PM2.5 in different seasons, Spatio-temporal modeling and identification of high-risk areas to reduce its effects seems necessary. The purpose of this study was Spatio-temporal modeling and preparation of PM2.5 risk mapping using three machine learning algorithms (random forest (RF), AdaBoost, and stochastic gradient descent (SGD)) in the metropolis of Tehran, Iran. Therefore, in the first step, to prepare the dependent variable data, the PM2.5 average was used for the four seasons of spring, summer, autumn, and winter. Then, using remote sensing (RS) and a geographic information system (GIS), independent data such as temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, rainfall, humidity, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), population density, street density, and distance to industrial centers were prepared as a seasonal average. To Spatio-temporal modeling using machine learning algorithms, 70% of the data were used for training and 30% for validation. The frequency ratio (FR) model was used as input to machine learning algorithms to calculate the spatial relationship between PM2.5 and the effective parameters. Finally, Spatio-temporal modeling and PM2.5 risk mapping were performed using three machine learning algorithms. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) results showed that the RF algorithm had the greatest modeling accuracy, with values of 0.926, 0.94, 0.949, and 0.949 for spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. According to the RF model, the most important variable in spring and autumn was NDVI. Temperature and distance to industrial centers were the most important variables in the summer and winter, respectively. The results showed that autumn, winter, summer, and spring had the highest risk of PM2.5, respectively.

Effects of air pollution in Spatio-temporal modeling of asthma-prone areas using a machine learning model.

Industrialization and increasing urbanization have led to increased air pollution, which has a devastating effect on public health and asthma. This study aimed to model the spatial-temporal of asthma in Tehran, Iran using a machine learning model. Initially, a spatial database was created consisting of 872 locations of asthma children and six air pollution parameters, including carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) in four-seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter). Spatial-temporal modeling and mapping of asthma-prone areas were performed using a random forest (RF) model. For Spatio-temporal modeling and assessment, 70% and 30% of the dataset were used, respectively. The Spearman correlation and RF model findings showed that during different seasons, the PM2.5 parameter had the most important effect on asthma occurrence in Tehran. The assessment of the Spatio-temporal modeling of asthma using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-area under the curve (AUC) showed an accuracy of 0.823, 0.821, 0.83, and 0.827, respectively for spring, summer, autumn, and winter. According to the results, asthma occurs more often in autumn than in other seasons.

Asthma-prone areas modeling using a machine learning model.

Nowadays, owing to population growth, increasing environmental pollution, and lifestyle changes, the number of asthmatics has significantly increased. Therefore, the purpose of our study was to determine the asthma-prone areas in Tehran, Iran considering environmental, spatial factors. Initially, we built a spatial database using 872 locations of children with asthma and 13 environmental factors affecting the disease-distance to parks and streets, rainfall, temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, particulate matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Subsequently, utilizing this spatial database, a random forest (RF) machine learning model, and a geographic information system, we prepared a map of asthma-prone areas. For modeling and validation, we deployed 70% and 30%, respectively, of the locations of children with asthma. The results of spatial autocorrelation and RF model showed that the criteria of distance to parks and streets as well as PM 2.5 and PM 10 had the greatest impact on asthma occurrence in the study area. Spatial autocorrelation analyses indicated that the distribution of asthma cases was not random. According to receiver operating characteristic results, the RF model had good accuracy (the area under the curve was 0.987 and 0.921, respectively, for training and testing data).

Genetic and firefly metaheuristic algorithms for an optimized neuro-fuzzy prediction modeling of wildfire probability.

In the terrestrial ecosystems, perennial challenges of increased frequency and intensity of wildfires are exacerbated by climate change and unplanned human activities. Development of robust management and suppression plans requires accurate estimates of future burn probabilities. This study describes the development and validation of two hybrid intelligence predictive models that rely on an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and two metaheuristic optimization algorithms, i.e., genetic algorithm (GA) and firefly algorithm (FA), for the spatially explicit prediction of wildfire probabilities. A suite of ten explanatory variables (altitude, slope, aspect, land use, rainfall, soil order, temperature, wind effect, and distance to roads and human settlements) was investigated and a spatial database constructed using 32 fire events from the Zagros ecoregion (Iran). The frequency ratio model was used to assign weights to each class of variables that depended on the strength of the spatial association between each class and the probability of wildfire occurrence. The weights were then used for training the ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-FA hybrid models. The models were validated using the ROC-AUC method that indicated that the ANFIS-GA model performed better (AUCsuccessrate = 0.92; AUCpredictionrate = 0.91) than the ANFIS-FA model (AUCsuccessrate = 0.89; AUCpredictionrate = 0.88). The efficiency of these models was compared to a single ANFIS model and statistical analyses of paired comparisons revealed that the two meta-optimized predictive models significantly improved wildfire prediction accuracy compared to the single ANFIS model (AUCsuccessrate = 0.82; AUCpredictionrate = 0.78). We concluded that such predictive models may become valuable toolkits to effectively guide fire management plans and on-the-ground decisions on firefighting strategies.

Flood susceptibility mapping using novel ensembles of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic algorithms.

Flood is one of the most destructive natural disasters which cause great financial and life losses per year. Therefore, producing susceptibility maps for flood management are necessary in order to reduce its harmful effects. The aim of the present study is to map flood hazard over the Jahrom Township in Fars Province using a combination of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) with different metaheuristics algorithms such as ant colony optimization (ACO), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) and comparing their accuracy. A total number of 53 flood locations areas were identified, 35 locations of which were randomly selected in order to model flood susceptibility and the remaining 16 locations were used to validate the models. Learning vector quantization (LVQ), as one of the supervised neural network methods, was employed in order to estimate factors' importance. Nine flood conditioning factors namely: slope degree, plan curvature, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), distance from river, land use/land cover, rainfall, and lithology were selected and the corresponding maps were prepared in ArcGIS. The frequency ratio (FR) model was used to assign weights to each class within particular controlling factor, then the weights was transferred into MATLAB software for further analyses and to combine with metaheuristic models. The ANFIS-PSO was found to be the most practical model in term of producing the highly focused flood susceptibility map with lesser spatial distribution related to highly susceptible classes. The chi-square result attests the same, where the ANFIS-PSO had the highest spatial differentiation within flood susceptibility classes over the study area. The area under the curve (AUC) obtained from ROC curve indicated the accuracy of 91.4%, 91.8%, 92.6% and 94.5% for the respective models of FR, ANFIS-ACO, ANFIS-GA, and ANFIS-PSO ensembles. So, the ensemble of ANFIS-PSO was introduced as the premier model in the study area. Furthermore, LVQ results revealed that slope degree, rainfall, and altitude were the most effective factors. As regards the premier model, a total area of 44.74% was recognized as highly susceptible to flooding. The results of this study can be used as a platform for better land use planning in order to manage the highly susceptible zones to flooding and reduce the anticipated losses.