ABSTRACT
In this trying time for the world battling different variants of the COVID'19 pandemic, different intervention strategies are being taken by government, to limit the spread of infection. Closing educational institutes, stay at home orders, campaigns for emphasis on vaccination, usage of medical mask and frequently sanitizing hands, etc. are the endeavors made by the authorities to decrease the number of cases in the country. In this regard, the contribution aims to help the decision-makers to identify a potential prevention strategy, based on public acceptance and intervention effectiveness. To achieve this objective, feasible judgments of professionals from three different sectors are brought together through meetings. Opinions, based on ten criteria, are recorded in linguistic form for prioritizing six alternatives. The linguistic terms are then evaluated and manipulated by entailing triangular fuzzy numbers and a group multi-criteria decision making (GMCDM) approach. After using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP) for the complex decisions, the fuzzy VIsekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje method (F-VIKOR) is utilized to attain the closest ideal stratagem. Consequently, through the ranking orders of defuzzified scores, intuitive preference of compromise solutions is suggested. The tactic gaining more priority with respect to the group utility to the majority and F-VIKOR index is complete lockdown for the short term. Furthermore, a comparison analysis is also added in the discussion to verify the attained prioritized outcomes. This comparative study is carried out through the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), which evidently produces the same preference of alternatives. In addition, this strategy can be apparently discovered to be an effective strategy adopted by different countries in successfully decreasing the number of cases.
ABSTRACT
In present time, the whole world is in the phase of war against the deadly pandemic COVID'19 and working on different interventions in this regard. Variety of strategies are taken into account from ground level to the state to reduce the transmission rate. For this purpose, the epidemiologists are also augmenting their contribution in structuring such models that could depict a scheme to diminish the basic reproduction number. These tactics also include the awareness campaigns initiated by the stakeholders through digital, print media and etc. Analyzing the cost and profit effectiveness of these tactics, we design an optimal control dynamical model to study the proficiency of each strategy in reducing the virulence of COVID'19. The aim is to illustrate the memory effect on the dynamics of COVID'19 with and without prevention measures through fractional calculus. Therefore, the structure of the model is in line with generalized proportional fractional derivative to assess the effects at each chronological change. Awareness about using medical mask, social distancing, frequent use of sanitizer or cleaning hand and supportive care during treatment are the strategies followed worldwide in this fight. Taking these into consideration, the optimal objective function proposed for the surveillance mitigation of COVID'19, is contemplated as the cost function. The effect analysis is supported through graphs and tabulated values. In addition, sensitivity inspection of basic reproduction number is also carried out with respect to different values of fractional index and cost function. Ultimately, social distancing and supportive care of infected are found to be significant in decreasing the basic reproduction number more rapidly.
