ABSTRACT
Ocean warming is expected to occur due to anthropogenic climate change bringing a spatial shift of marine communities. Experimental data that characterize the aerobic power budget via an aerobic scope, thermal metabolic scope, or thermal preferences have been proposed as tools that can describe species distribution since they characterize species fitness or performance under different temperatures. This study tested the potential relationship between observed occurrences and different physiological studies in the Americas for 11 commercially important species in Mexico. Projections were also developed for Mexico's exclusive economic zone under different climate warming scenarios. The physiological data were fitted from optimum up to pejus temperatures and projected to sea surface temperatures for present (2003-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) for the period 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. For species with wide distributions in the Americas, the number of occurrences reported decreases at higher latitudes related to the decrease in species performance calculated from laboratory experiments. In addition, higher species occurrences are usually reported around optimum temperatures. Overall, the results suggest that pejus temperatures likely restrict latitudinal distribution, at least for widely distributed taxons. Regarding Mexican projections, the results varied widely by species. For example, in the Atlantic Ocean, Octopus maya and Panulirus argus are vulnerable to warming scenarios, while Centropomus undecimalis is not. Interestingly, northern Campeche Bank, the Gulf of California, and Western Baja California may act as thermal refugia for marine species indicating they could be assigned as protected areas to support fisheries throughout the Mexican exclusive economic zone. This research adds to the increasing evidence of the relationship between thermal niche and wild population distribution.
Subject(s)
Climate Change , Environment , Mexico , Temperature , Refugium , EcosystemABSTRACT
nvestigations of thermal limits are crucial to understanding climate change ecology because it illuminates how climate will shape future species distributions. This work determined the preferred temperature, critical threshold limits represented by the Critical Thermal Maximum (CTMax) and (CTMin), thermal window, oxygen consumption rate and thermal metabolic scope of Kelletia kelletii acclimated to 13, 16.0, 19.0 and 22.0 ± 1°C to determine if this species is sensitive to global warming. The preferred temperature (PT) of Kellet's whelk was determined using the acute method. The acclimation temperature significantly affected the thermal preference of the marine snail (P < 0.05) and increased from 13.2 to 24.2°C as the acclimation temperature increased from 13.0 to 22.0°C. The PT was 13.4°C. The acclimation temperature did not significantly affect the CTMax (P > 0.05), obtaining a range of 29.2 to 30.2°C. The CTMin had an interval of 9.2°C, at acclimation temperatures of 13 to 16°C, and increased significantly (P < 0.05) at 12.3°C in the acclimation interval of 19-22°C. The thermal window for the different acclimation temperatures was 163.5°C2. The oxygen consumption rate of the snails increased significantly (P < 0.05) when the acclimation temperature increased from 13.0 to 22.0°C, peaking at 63.6 mg of O2 kg-1 h-1 w.w. in snails maintained at the highest acclimation temperature. The thermal metabolic scope increased significantly (P < 0.05) when the acclimation temperature was 13.0°C, with values of 68.7 mg O2 h-1 kg-1 w.w., then decreased significantly (P < 0.05) to 27.9 mg O2 h-1 kg-1 w.w at 32°C. Therefore, the thermal aerobic scope was highest at the temperatures that K. kelletii preferred. These results may partially explain their pattern of distribution on the Baja California coast.
