Spatial modelling of agro-ecologically significant grassland species using the INLA-SPDE approach.

The use of spatially referenced data in agricultural systems modelling has grown in recent decades, however, the use of spatial modelling techniques in agricultural science is limited. In this paper, we test an effective and efficient technique for spatially modelling and analysing agricultural data using Bayesian hierarchical spatial models (BHSM). These models utilise analytical approximations and numerical integration called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). We critically analyse and compare the performance of the INLA and INLA-SPDE (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation with Stochastic Partial Differential Equation) approaches against the more commonly used generalised linear model (glm), by modelling binary geostatistical species presence/absence data for several agro-ecologically significant Australian grassland species. The INLA-SPDE approach showed excellent predictive performance (ROCAUC 0.9271-0.9623) for all species. Further, the glm approach not accounting for spatial autocorrelation had inconsistent parameter estimates (switching between significantly positive and negative) when the dataset was subsetted and modelled at different scales. In contrast, the INLA-SPDE approach which accounted for spatial autocorrelation had stable parameter estimates. Using approaches which explicitly account for spatial autocorrelation, such as INLA-SPDE, improves model predictive performance and may provide a significant advantage for researchers by reducing the potential for Type I or false-positive errors in inferences about the significance of predictors.

Early flowering changes robusta coffee yield responses to climate stress and management.

A shift towards earlier flowering is a widely noted consequence of climate change for the world's plants. However, whether early flowering changes the way in which plants respond to climate stress, and in turn plant yield, remains largely unexplored. Using 10 years of flowering time and yield observations (Total N = 5580) from 558 robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) farms across Vietnam we used structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine the drivers of flowering day anomalies and the consequent effects of this on coffee climate stress sensitivity and management responses (i.e. irrigation and fertilization). SEM allowed us to model the cascading and interacting effects of differences in flowering time, growing season length and climate stress. Warm nights were the main driver of early flowering (i.e. flowering day anomalies <0), which in turn corresponded to longer growing seasons. Early flowering was linked to greater sensitivity of yield to temperature during flowering (i.e. early in the season). In contrast, when late flowering occurred yield was most sensitive to temperature and rainfall later in the growing season, after flowering and fruit development. The positive effects of tree age and fertilizer on yield, apparent under late flowering conditions, were absent when flowering occurred early. Late flowering models predicted yields under early flowering conditions poorly (a 50 % reduction in cross-validated R2 of 0.54 to 0.27). Likewise, models based on early flowering were unable to predict yields well under late flowering conditions (a 75 % reduction in cross-validated R2, from 0.58 to 0.14). Our results show that early flowering changes the sensitivity of coffee production to climate stress and management and in turn our ability to predict yield. Our results indicate that changes in plant phenology need to be taken into account in order to more accurately assess climate risk and management impacts on plant performance and crop yield.

Evaluating management strategies for sustainable crop production under changing climate conditions: A system dynamics approach.

The increasing frequency and severity of drought pose significant threats to sustainable agricultural production across the world. Managing drought risks is challenging given the complexity of the interdependencies and feedback between climate drivers and socio-economic and ecological systems. To better understand the dynamics that drive the impacts of drought and water scarcity on crop production, a system dynamics model has been developed to explore complex interactions between factors in associated with drought and agricultural production, and examine how these might impact agricultural sustainability, using a case study in a coffee production system in Viet Nam. The model shows that water- and land-use drivers and their interactions with ecological and socio-economic factors play a more significant role than drought in determining the sustainability of coffee production. Results of policy scenario analyses indicate that drought conditions might exacerbate problems related to water shortages for irrigation but their impacts could be substantially minimized through applying intervention strategies, including restriction of the total area of land available for coffee production (to ~ 190,000 ha) and a 25% reduction in the irrigation amount per hectare of coffee compared to the common practices. Overall, the model findings add significant insight into drought and water resources management for sustainable crop production and the developed model can serve as a decision-support tool to inform strategic policy-making.

Medical geology in the framework of the sustainable development goals.

Exposure to geogenic contaminants (GCs) such as metal(loid)s, radioactive metals and isotopes as well as transuraniums occurring naturally in geogenic sources (rocks, minerals) can negatively impact on environmental and human health. The GCs are released into the environment by natural biogeochemical processes within the near-surface environments and/or by anthropogenic activities such as mining and hydrocarbon exploitation as well as exploitation of geothermal resources. They can contaminate soil, water, air and biota and subsequently enter the food chain with often serious health impacts which are mostly underestimated and poorly recognized. Global population explosion and economic growth and the associated increase in demand for water, energy, food, and mineral resources result in accelerated release of GCs globally. The emerging science of "medical geology" assesses the complex relationships between geo-environmental factors and their impacts on humans and environments and is related to the majority of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals in the 2030 Agenda of the United Nations for Sustainable Development. In this paper, we identify multiple lines of evidence for the role of GCs in the incidence of diseases with as yet unknown etiology (causation). Integrated medical geology promises a more holistic understanding of the occurrence, mobility, bioavailability, bio-accessibility, exposure and transfer mechanisms of GCs to the food-chain and humans, and the related ecotoxicological impacts and health effects. Scientific evidence based on this approach will support adaptive solutions for prevention, preparedness and response regarding human and environmental health impacts originating from exposure to GCs.

Savanna burning methodology for fire management and emissions reduction: a critical review of influencing factors.

Savanna fire is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In Australia, savanna fire contributes about 3% of annual GHG emissions reportable to the Kyoto Protocol. In order to reduce GHG emissions from savanna burning, the Australian government has developed and approved a Kyoto compliant savanna controlled burning methodology-the first legal instrument of this kind at a global level-under its Emission Reduction Fund. However, this approved methodology is currently only applicable to nine vegetation fuel types across northern parts of Australia in areas which receive on average over 600 mm rainfall annually, covering only 15.4% of the total land area in Australia. Savanna ecosystems extend across a large proportion of mainland Australia. This paper provides a critical review of ten key factors that need to be considered in developing a savanna burning methodology applicable to the other parts of Australia. It will also inform discussion in other countries intent on developing similar emissions reduction strategies.

Groundwater Governance in a Water-Starved Country: Public Policy, Farmers' Perceptions, and Drivers of Tubewell Adoption in Balochistan, Pakistan.

Pakistan faces the challenge of developing sustainable groundwater policies with the main focus on groundwater management rather than groundwater development and with appropriate governance arrangement to ensure benefits continue into the future. This article investigates groundwater policy, farmers' perceptions, and drivers of tubewell (groundwater bore) adoption and proposes possible pathways for improved groundwater management for Balochistan, Pakistan. Historical groundwater policies were mainly aimed at increasing agricultural production and reducing poverty, without consideration of adverse impact on groundwater availability. These groundwater policies and governance arrangements have resulted in a massive decline in groundwater tables. Tubewell owners' rankings of the drivers of groundwater decline suggest that rapid and widespread installation of tubewells, together with uncontrolled extraction due to lack of property rights, electricity subsidy policies, and ineffective governance, are key causes of groundwater decline in Balochistan. An empirical "tubewell adoption" model confirmed that the electricity subsidy significantly influenced tubewell adoption decisions. The article proposes a more rational electricity subsidy policy for sustaining groundwater levels in the short-run. However, in the long run a more comprehensive sustainable groundwater management policy, with strong institutional support and involvement of all stakeholders, is needed.

Correlations between physical and chemical defences in plants: tradeoffs, syndromes, or just many different ways to skin a herbivorous cat?

Most plant species have a range of traits that deter herbivores. However, understanding of how different defences are related to one another is surprisingly weak. Many authors argue that defence traits trade off against one another, while others argue that they form coordinated defence syndromes. We collected a dataset of unprecedented taxonomic and geographic scope (261 species spanning 80 families, from 75 sites across the globe) to investigate relationships among four chemical and six physical defences. Five of the 45 pairwise correlations between defence traits were significant and three of these were tradeoffs. The relationship between species' overall chemical and physical defence levels was marginally nonsignificant (P = 0.08), and remained nonsignificant after accounting for phylogeny, growth form and abundance. Neither categorical principal component analysis (PCA) nor hierarchical cluster analysis supported the idea that species displayed defence syndromes. Our results do not support arguments for tradeoffs or for coordinated defence syndromes. Rather, plants display a range of combinations of defence traits. We suggest this lack of consistent defence syndromes may be adaptive, resulting from selective pressure to deploy a different combination of defences to coexisting species.

Putting plant resistance traits on the map: a test of the idea that plants are better defended at lower latitudes.

• It has long been believed that plant species from the tropics have higher levels of traits associated with resistance to herbivores than do species from higher latitudes. A meta-analysis recently showed that the published literature does not support this theory. However, the idea has never been tested using data gathered with consistent methods from a wide range of latitudes. • We quantified the relationship between latitude and a broad range of chemical and physical traits across 301 species from 75 sites world-wide. • Six putative resistance traits, including tannins, the concentration of lipids (an indicator of oils, waxes and resins), and leaf toughness were greater in high-latitude species. Six traits, including cyanide production and the presence of spines, were unrelated to latitude. Only ash content (an indicator of inorganic substances such as calcium oxalates and phytoliths) and the properties of species with delayed greening were higher in the tropics. • Our results do not support the hypothesis that tropical plants have higher levels of resistance traits than do plants from higher latitudes. If anything, plants have higher resistance toward the poles. The greater resistance traits of high-latitude species might be explained by the greater cost of losing a given amount of leaf tissue in low-productivity environments.