Determinants of severity among hospitalised COVID-19 patients: Hospital-based case-control study, India, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for the development of severe COVID-19 disease and death have been widely reported across several studies. Knowledge about the determinants of severe disease and mortality in the Indian context can guide early clinical management. METHODS: We conducted a hospital-based case control study across nine sites in India to identify the determinants of severe and critical COVID-19 disease. FINDINGS: We identified age above 60 years, duration before admission >5 days, chronic kidney disease, leucocytosis, prothrombin time > 14 sec, serum ferritin >250 ng/mL, d-dimer >0.5 ng/mL, pro-calcitonin >0.15 µg/L, fibrin degradation products >5 µg/mL, C-reactive protein >5 mg/L, lactate dehydrogenase >150 U/L, interleukin-6 >25 pg/mL, NLR ≥3, and deranged liver function, renal function and serum electrolytes as significant factors associated with severe COVID-19 disease. INTERPRETATION: We have identified a set of parameters that can help in characterising severe COVID-19 cases in India. These parameters are part of routinely available investigations within Indian hospital settings, both public and private. Study findings have the potential to inform clinical management protocols and identify patients at high risk of severe outcomes at an early stage.

Modelling and estimation of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India, 2010-2011.

This paper provides HIV estimation methodology used in India and key HIV estimates for 2010-2011. We used a modified version of the Spectrum tool that included an Estimation and Projection Package as part of its AIDS Impact Module. Inputs related to population size, age-specific pattern of fertility, gender-ratio at birth, age and gender-specific pattern of mortality, and volume and age-gender distribution of net migration were derived from census records, the Sample Registration System and large-scale demographic health surveys. Epidemiological and programmatic data were derived from HIV sentinel surveillance, large-scale epidemiological surveys and the programme management information system. Estimated adult HIV prevalence retained a declining trend in India, following its peak in 2002 at a level of 0.41% (within bounds 0.35-0.47%). By 2010 and 2011, it levelled at estimates of 0.28% (0.24-0.34%) and 0.27% (0.22-0.33%), respectively. The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reduced by 8% between 2007 and 2011. While children accounted for approximately 6.3% of total HIV infections in 2007, this proportion increased to about 7% in 2011. With changing priorities and epidemic patterns, the programme has to customise its strategies to effectively address the emerging vulnerabilities and adapt them to suit the requirements of different geographical regions.

Estimate of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India 2008-2009.

OBJECTIVES: To update the estimation of the adult HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in India for the year 2008-2009 with the combination of improved data and methods. DESIGN: Based on HIV sentinel surveillance (HSS) data and a set of epidemiological assumptions, estimates of HIV prevalence and burden in India have been derived. SETTING: HSS sites spread over all the States of India. PARTICIPANTS: Secondary data from HSS sites which include attendees of antenatal clinics and sites under targeted interventions of high-risk groups, namely, female sex workers (FSW), intravenous drug users (IDU) and men having sex with men (MSM). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimates of adult HIV prevalence and PLHIV in India and its states. RESULTS: The adult HIV prevalence in India has declined to an estimated 0.31% (0.25-0.39%) in 2009 against 0.36% (0.29-0.45%) in 2006. Among the high prevalence states, the HIV prevalence has declined in Tamil Nadu to 0.33% in 2009 and other states show either a plateau or a slightly declining trend over the time period 2006-2009. There are states in the low prevalence states where the adult HIV prevalence has risen over the last 4 years. The estimated number of PLHIV in India is 2.4 million (1.93-3.04 million) in 2009. Of which, 39% are women, children under 15 years of age account for 4.4% of all infections, while people aged 15-49 years account for 82.4% of all infections. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated adult prevalence has declined in few states, a plateau or a slightly declining trend over the time. In future, efforts may be made to examine the implications of the emerging trend of the HIV prevalence on the recent infections in the study population.