Premorbid IQ estimates from a multiple aptitude test battery: regression vs. equating.

Estimation of premorbid abilities remains an integral part of neuropsychological evaluations. Several methods of indirect estimation have been suggested in the literature. Many of these methods are based in prediction via linear regression. Unfortunately, linear regression has the well-reported tendency to underpredict high IQ scores and overpredict low IQ scores. This can be shown to be an unavoidable statistical artifact of linear regression. We demonstrate a procedure to estimate premorbid IQ without the regression artifact. The procedure has two steps: confirmation of construct equivalence and psychometric equating. An example using real data is presented which shows the regression to the mean problem with prediction and compares it to the results from equating.

A preliminary evaluation of causal models of male and female acquisition of pilot skills.

Based on a previous study, a causal model of acquisition of pilot job knowledge and flying skills was tested on separate samples of male and female students. Causal model parameters were estimated separately for each sample and, due to the small sample size for women, no between-groups statistical tests were conducted. The results are viewed as tentative because of the small sample of female students; however, the path coefficient parameter estimates are still useful. The model showed a direct influence of general cognitive ability (g) on the acquisition of job knowledge and an indirect influence on the acquisition of flying skills. The direct and indirect influence of cognitive ability on flying skills was a little stronger for women than for men. Additionally, the path between prior job knowledge (JKp) and flying performance was somewhat stronger for women than for men. Consistent with previous findings, the influence of early flying skills on later flying skills was very strong. No argument for a sex-separated training syllabus is supported.

U.S. Air Force pilot selection tests: what is measured and what is predictive?

Selection of military pilots has long included the use of multiple aptitude test batteries. Although the names and appearances of the tests used in pilot selection vary, most are to a large extent measures of general cognitive ability, or g. This is consistent with the central role played by cognitive ability measures in the prediction of numerous job training (r = 0.43) and performance (r = 0.34) criteria. Measures of specific cognitive abilities (e.g., verbal, quantitative, spatial, perceptual speed) have shown little incremental validity beyond g (increase in correlation of about 0.02). The incremental validity, beyond g, of measures of pilot job knowledge (e.g., aviation concepts, instruments, principles and terms; increase in correlation beyond g of about 0.08), psychomotor abilities, and personality scores (increase in correlation beyond g between 0.02 and 0.04) also has been small, but significant. The unavoidable requirement to reason in responding to test material causes g to be measured. In broad-ability-range samples, the positive correlations of the measures demonstrate that general cognitive ability is always present as a higher-order factor. Future measures of pilot aptitude may include tests based on cognitive components, chronometric methods, neural conductive velocity, or other methods. These measures, despite their appearance, have been shown to mostly measure g. Subsequently, we expect that future U.S. Air Force pilot selection tests will mostly be measures of g and will, therefore, continue to be predictive of performance.

Prediction of situational awareness in F-15 pilots.

Situational awareness (SA) is a skill often deemed essential to pilot performance in both combat and noncombat flying. A study was conducted to determine if SA in U.S. Air Force F-15 pilots could be predicted. The participants were 171 active duty F-15 A/C pilots who completed a test battery representative of various psychological constructs proposed or demonstrated to be valid for the prediction of performance in a wide variety of military and civilian jobs. These predictors encompassed measures of cognitive ability, psychomotor ability, and personality. Supervisor and peer ratings of SA were collected. Supervisors and peers showed substantial agreement on the SA ratings of the pilots. The first unrotated principle component extracted from the supervisor and peer ratings accounted for 92.5% of the variability of ratings. The unrotated first principal component served as the SA criterion. Flying experience measured in number of F-15 hours was the best predictor of SA. After controlling for the effects of F-15 flying hours, the measures of general cognitive ability based on working memory, spatial reasoning, and divided attention were found to be predictive of SA. Psychomotor and personality measures were not predictive. With additional F-15 flying hours it is expected that pilots would improve their ratings of SA.

Central role of g in military pilot selection.

The role of general cognitive ability (g) in the selection of military pilots is discussed. Four seminal issues that threaten the interpretation of the results of ability studies are introduced and examined. A brief history of the use of g in pilot selection is presented, going back to the World War I era. At that time, many countries used tests such as perception and reaction time, later shown to be mostly measures of g. The World War II era brought the age of the multiple aptitude batteries, and with it, the theory of differential abilities. However, most militaries still used highly g-saturated measures. More recently, an awareness of the prominence of g in job performance has led to a series of studies that showed the central role of g in predicting pilot success. In comparative analyses, g was found to be a better predictor of pilot criteria than specific abilities. However, some specific abilities or measures of job knowledge were found to increment the predictiveness of g. Several selection variables that appeared to measure characteristics other than g were found to measure, at least in some part, g. These include psychomotor tests and structured interviews. Finally, speculation on the future of the measurement of g is presented.