[Leading cause of death in young Dutch people: the cigarette]. / Doodsoorzaak nr. 1 bij jonge Nederlanders: de sigaret.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking on premature death in the Netherlands and the difference between causes of death for smokers and non-smokers. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHOD: Data on smoking behaviour were obtained from 40,000 people who participated in the CBS (Statistics Netherlands) health survey between 2001-2006. These data were linked to data on death and cause of death for the 10 years following this questionnaire. Hazard ratios were calculated for premature deaths among smokers, classified into smoking intensity, and ex-smokers as compared with those who had never smoked. These data were used to estimate cumulative death of smokers versus non-smokers. RESULTS: The hazard ratio for premature death was 3.8 (95% CI: 3.2-4.5) for heavy smokers, 2.6 (95% CI: 2.2-3.0) for moderate smokers and 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3-2.3) for light smokers. Lifelong heavy smokers had a chance of 23% of dying before the age of 65. For moderate and light smokers and for non-smokers, the chance was respectively 16, 11 and 7%. For half of all people who died relatively young, cancer was the underlying cause of death. This was mainly lung cancer for smokers. Heavy smokers are estimated to have lost 13 years of life, moderate smokers 9 and light smokers 5. Smoking cessation at any age still benefited health. Ex-smokers who had quit before an approximate age of 35 had the same life expectancy as lifelong non-smokers. CONCLUSION: An estimated four in ten premature deaths can be attributed to smoking in the Netherlands. Cancer is the predominant cause of death amongst smokers. Smoking cessation increases life expectancy. Therefore, the earlier a smoker stops, the better.

A cluster-randomised trial of screening for language disorders in toddlers.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the screening performance of a specific language-screening instrument at 18 and 24 months of age and to assess its effect on the early detection and prognosis of language delay. DESIGN: Child health care physicians were randomised to the intervention group, in which specific language screening was conducted twice (at age 18 months and 24 months), or to the control group (usual care). The specific screening instrument consisted of a uniform set of questions for the parents and test elements for the child, with scaled scores to assess responses. SETTING: Child health care in the Netherlands and referral of screen-positive children. SUBJECTS: 5734 children in the intervention group and 4621 in the control group. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Test characteristics and disorders at 24 months, and confirmed diagnoses of a language disorder before 36 months in both groups. Gold standard based on reports of parents, specialists and expert panel. Prognosis estimated from two diagnostic language development performance scores at 36 months (in questionnaire). RESULTS: In the intervention group, 3147 of the 5734 children (55%) were screened with the specific screening instrument and 73 of the screened children (2.3%) were screen-positive. Of the screen-positive children, 41 (55%) had confirmed language delay (diagnostic assessment and/or reported treatment). The estimated sensitivity of the test ranged between 24-52% depending on the severity of language disorders. The prevalence of language disorders in three-year olds was estimated to be 2.4-5.3%. In the intervention group, 1.25-2 times more children with language delay had been diagnosed before 36 months. The assessment of language development at 36 months showed no statistically significant differences between the intervention and the control groups. CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of a specific language-screening instrument in child health centre activities resulted in the earlier detection of children with language delay. Short-term health benefits could not be demonstrated. Large-scale introduction cannot be recommended on the basis of this information alone.

Breast cancer screening in Navarra: interpretation of a high detection rate at the first screening round and a low rate at the second round.

Our objective was to evaluate the on-going European pilot project for breast cancer screening in Navarra, Spain, and to predict the effects and costs of the programme in the long run. Observed results in Navarra, consisting of more than 100,000 screens, were compared with expected results. A microsimulation screening analysis model was used that included demographical, epidemiological and screening characteristics of Navarra. Alternative assumptions on epidemiological and screening characteristics were also addressed. The observed detection rate (5.9 per 1,000 screened women) in the first round was 18% higher than expected; the observed rate in the subsequent round (2.9) was 17% lower than expected. Longer pre-clinical durations, lower sensitivity or the existence of a high-risk group in Navarra could not satisfactorily explain the first and second round results together. Nevertheless, the programme will have an important health benefit for the women involved, due to an important trend in incidence in recent years and the relatively unfavourable clinical stage distribution in Navarra. The proportion T2+ cancers that will be prevented after 10 years of screening amounts to 36%. The annual mortality reduction in steady state is expected to range between 17% (if the observed rates in the second round indicate real screening performance) to 23% (if the first round indicates real performance). Our results demonstrate that a high detection rate in the first round is insufficient to evaluate the quality of a programme. Interval cancer rates, results of the subsequent round and size distributions are also crucial indicators of the quality of the screening programme and should be analysed in their specific context.

[Malaria: under-notification and risk assessment for travelers to the tropics]. / Malaria: onderrapportage en risicoschatting voor tropenreizigers.

OBJECTIVE: To define the risk of contracting malaria for travellers to malaria-endemic areas and to calculate the under-notification under the current notification system. DESIGN: Retrospective epidemiological analysis. SETTING: Agricultural University Wageningen, The Netherlands. METHODS: Risks of contracting malaria were estimated by calculating the incidence per 100,000 travellers. This incidence was found using an estimated under-notification calculated on the basis of data from the "SIG Zorginformatie' (hospital cases) and the Medical Health Inspectorate (notified cases). RESULTS: The average under-notification in the Netherlands was at least 59% in the period January 1988 to June 1993 inclusive and increased by 10% each year. Judging by this estimation at least 3170 travellers returned to the Netherlands with malaria in this period. The risk in Africa appeared to be decreasing. In Asia the malaria incidence increased slightly in recent years while no trend was found for America. The imported malaria was mainly caused by Plasmodium falciparum. CONCLUSION: In order to improve the malaria notification system in the Netherlands a notification obligation for all microbiological laboratories should be introduced as almost all malaria is diagnosed there.