An Online Calculator to Estimate the Impact of Changes in Breastfeeding Rates on Population Health and Costs.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the impact of changes in breastfeeding rates on population health. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used a Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the population-level changes in disease burden associated with marginal changes in rates of any breastfeeding at each month from birth to 12 months of life, and in rates of exclusive breastfeeding from birth to 6 months of life. We used these marginal estimates to construct an interactive online calculator (available at www.usbreastfeeding.org/saving-calc ). The Institutional Review Board of the Cambridge Health Alliance exempted the study. RESULTS: Using our interactive online calculator, we found that a 5% point increase in breastfeeding rates was associated with statistically significant differences in child infectious morbidity for the U.S. population, including otitis media (101,952 cases, 95% confidence interval [CI] 77,929-131,894 cases) and gastrointestinal infection (236,073 cases, 95% CI 190,643-290,278 cases). Associated medical cost differences were $31,784,763 (95% CI $24,295,235-$41,119,548) for otitis media and $12,588,848 ($10,166,203-$15,479,352) for gastrointestinal infection. The state-level impact of attaining Healthy People 2020 goals varied by population size and current breastfeeding rates. CONCLUSION: Modest increases in breastfeeding rates substantially impact healthcare costs in the first year of life.

Suboptimal breastfeeding in the United States: Maternal and pediatric health outcomes and costs.

The aim of this study was to quantify the excess cases of pediatric and maternal disease, death, and costs attributable to suboptimal breastfeeding rates in the United States. Using the current literature on the associations between breastfeeding and health outcomes for nine pediatric and five maternal diseases, we created Monte Carlo simulations modeling a hypothetical cohort of U.S. women followed from age 15 to age 70 years and their children from birth to age 20 years. We examined disease outcomes using (a) 2012 breastfeeding rates and (b) assuming that 90% of infants were breastfed according to medical recommendations. We measured annual excess cases, deaths, and associated costs, in 2014 dollars, using a 2% discount rate. Annual excess deaths attributable to suboptimal breastfeeding total 3,340 (95% confidence interval [1,886 to 4,785]), 78% of which are maternal due to myocardial infarction (n = 986), breast cancer (n = 838), and diabetes (n = 473). Excess pediatric deaths total 721, mostly due to Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (n = 492) and necrotizing enterocolitis (n = 190). Medical costs total $3.0 billion, 79% of which are maternal. Costs of premature death total $14.2 billion. The number of women needed to breastfeed as medically recommended to prevent an infant gastrointestinal infection is 0.8; acute otitis media, 3; hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection, 95; maternal hypertension, 55; diabetes, 162; and myocardial infarction, 235. For every 597 women who optimally breastfeed, one maternal or child death is prevented. Policies to increase optimal breastfeeding could result in substantial public health gains. Breastfeeding has a larger impact on women's health than previously appreciated.

Disparities in Breastfeeding: Impact on Maternal and Child Health Outcomes and Costs.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the disease burden and associated costs attributable to suboptimal breastfeeding rates among non-Hispanic blacks (NHBs), Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites (NHWs). STUDY DESIGN: Using current literature on associations between breastfeeding and health outcomes for 8 pediatric and 5 maternal diseases, we used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate 2 hypothetical cohorts of US women followed from age 15 to 70 years and their infants followed from birth to age 20 years. Accounting for differences in parity, maternal age, and birth weights by race/ethnicity, we examined disease outcomes and costs using 2012 breastfeeding rates by race/ethnicity and outcomes that would be expected if 90% of infants were breastfed according to recommendations for exclusive and continued breastfeeding duration. RESULTS: Suboptimal breastfeeding is associated with a greater burden of disease among NHB and Hispanic populations. Compared with a NHW population, a NHB population had 1.7 times the number of excess cases of acute otitis media attributable to suboptimal breastfeeding (95% CI 1.7-1.7), 3.3 times the number of excess cases of necrotizing enterocolitis (95% CI 2.9-3.7), and 2.2 times the number of excess child deaths (95% CI 1.6-2.8). Compared with a NHW population, a Hispanic population had 1.4 times the number of excess cases of gastrointestinal infection (95% CI 1.4-1.4) and 1.5 times the number of excess child deaths (95% CI 1.2-1.9). CONCLUSIONS: Racial/ethnic disparities in breastfeeding have important social, economic, and health implications, assuming a causal relationship between breastfeeding and health outcomes.

Impact of Optimized Breastfeeding on the Costs of Necrotizing Enterocolitis in Extremely Low Birthweight Infants.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate risk of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants as a function of preterm formula (PF) and maternal milk intake and calculate the impact of suboptimal feeding on the incidence and costs of NEC. STUDY DESIGN: We used aORs derived from the Glutamine Trial to perform Monte Carlo simulation of a cohort of ELBW infants under current suboptimal feeding practices, compared with a theoretical cohort in which 90% of infants received at least 98% human milk. RESULTS: NEC incidence among infants receiving ≥98% human milk was 1.3%; 11.1% among infants fed only PF; and 8.2% among infants fed a mixed diet (P = .002). In adjusted models, compared with infants fed predominantly human milk, we found an increased risk of NEC associated with exclusive PF (aOR = 12.1, 95% CI 1.5, 94.2), or a mixed diet (aOR 8.7, 95% CI 1.2-65.2). In Monte Carlo simulation, current feeding of ELBW infants was associated with 928 excess NEC cases and 121 excess deaths annually, compared with a model in which 90% of infants received ≥98% human milk. These models estimated an annual cost of suboptimal feeding of ELBW infants of $27.1 million (CI $24 million, $30.4 million) in direct medical costs, $563 655 (CI $476 191, $599 069) in indirect nonmedical costs, and $1.5 billion (CI $1.3 billion, $1.6 billion) in cost attributable to premature death. CONCLUSIONS: Among ELBW infants, not being fed predominantly human milk is associated with an increased risk of NEC. Efforts to support milk production by mothers of ELBW infants may prevent infant deaths and reduce costs.

Cost analysis of maternal disease associated with suboptimal breastfeeding.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the U.S. maternal health burden from current breastfeeding rates both in terms of premature death as well as economic costs. METHODS: Using literature on associations between lactation and maternal health, we modeled the health outcomes and costs expected for a U.S. cohort of 15-year-old females followed to age 70 years. In 2002, this cohort included 1.88 million individuals. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compared the outcomes expected if 90% of mothers were able to breastfeed for at least 1 year after each birth with outcomes under the current 1-year breastfeeding rate of 23%. We modeled cases of breast cancer, premenopausal ovarian cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and myocardial infarction considering direct costs, indirect costs, and cost of premature death (before age 70 years) expressed in 2011 dollars. RESULTS: If observed associations between breastfeeding duration and maternal health are causal, we estimate that current breastfeeding rates result in 4,981 excess cases of breast cancer, 53,847 cases of hypertension, and 13,946 cases of myocardial infarction compared with a cohort of 1.88 million U.S. women who optimally breastfed. Using a 3% discount rate, suboptimal breastfeeding incurs a total of $17.4 billion in cost to society resulting from premature death (95% confidence interval [CI] $4.38-24.68 billion), $733.7 million in direct costs (95% CI $612.9-859.7 million), and $126.1 million indirect morbidity costs (95% CI $99.00-153.22 million). We found a nonsignificant difference in number of deaths before age 70 years under current breastfeeding rates (4,396 additional premature deaths, 95% CI -810-7,918). CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal breastfeeding may increase U.S. maternal morbidity and health care costs. Thus, investigating whether the observed associations between suboptimal breastfeeding and adverse maternal health outcomes are causal should be a research priority.