Observation and Attribution of Temperature Trends Near the Stratopause From HALOE.

This study considers time series of temperature versus pressure, T(p), from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) across the stratopause region, where the effects of radiative forcings from the greenhouse gases (CO2 and H2O) and from ozone are most pronounced. Trend analyses of HALOE T(p) values for 1993-2005 are for six levels from 2.0 to 0.3 hPa with a vertical resolution of about 4 km and for eight latitude zones from 65°S to 65°N. The analyses account for the forcing effects from the 11-yr solar cycle. HALOE trends at 2.0 hPa are of the order of -1.0 K/decade across the tropics and subtropics but then become smaller (-0.5 K/decade) at the middle latitudes. Near-global T(p) trends are of order -0.5 K/decade but have a minimum of -0.2 K/decade at 1.0 hPa; they are clearly negative in the southern but slightly positive in the northern hemisphere. The combined radiative forcings from CO2, H2O, and ozone vary between -0.4 and -0.7 K/decade for 1993-2005 and are hemispherically symmetric. The HALOE temperature trend and total radiative cooling profiles differ from those reported from observations and calculations for 1980-2000, mainly because the ozone trends changed from clearly negative in the 1980s through mid-1990s to slightly positive during the time of HALOE. Trends at low latitudes for the tracer, methane (CH4), increase from 2% to 4%/decade from 50 to 10 hPa and then to ~6%/decade by 5 hPa. Analyses of time series of CH4 across the stratopause reveal subseasonal scale variability within the northern hemisphere that reduces the significance of the T(p) trends.

Observed responses of mesospheric water vapor to solar cycle and dynamical forcings.

This study focuses on responses of mesospheric water vapor (H2O) to the solar cycle flux at Lyman-α wavelength and to wave forcings according to the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The zonal-averaged responses are for latitudes from 60°S to 60°N and pressure-altitudes from 0.01 to 1.0 hPa, as obtained by multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses of time series of H2O from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) for July 1992 to November 2005. The solar responses change from strong negative H2O values in the upper mesosphere to very weak, positive values in the tropical lower mesosphere. Those response profiles at the low latitudes agree reasonably with published results for H2O from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). The distribution of seasonal H2O amplitudes corresponds well with that for temperature and is in accord with the seasonal net circulation. In general, the responses of H2O to MEI are anti-correlated with those of temperature. H2O responses to MEI are negative in the upper mesosphere and largest in the northern hemisphere; responses in the lower mesosphere are more symmetric with latitude. The H2O trends from MLR for the lower mesosphere agree with those reported from time series of microwave observations at two ground-based network stations.

The impact of nonuniform sampling on stratospheric ozone trends derived from occultation instruments.

This paper applies a recently developed technique for deriving long-term trends in ozone from sparsely sampled data sets to multiple occultation instruments simultaneously without the need for homogenization. The technique can compensate for the nonuniform temporal, spatial, and diurnal sampling of the different instruments and can also be used to account for biases and drifts between instruments. These problems have been noted in recent international assessments as being a primary source of uncertainty that clouds the significance of derived trends. Results show potential "recovery" trends of ∼2-3 % decade-1 in the upper stratosphere at midlatitudes, which are similar to other studies, and also how sampling biases present in these data sets can create differences in derived recovery trends of up to ∼1 % decade-1 if not properly accounted for. Limitations inherent to all techniques (e.g., relative instrument drifts) and their impacts (e.g., trend differences up to ∼2 % decade-1) are also described and a potential path forward towards resolution is presented.

On the consistency of HNO3 and NO2 in the Aleutian High region from the Nimbus 7 LIMS Version 6 data set.

This study uses photochemical calculations along kinematic trajectories in conjunction with Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) observations to examine the changes in HNO3 and NO2 near 30 hPa in the region of the Aleutian High (AH) during the minor warming event of January 1979. An earlier analysis of Version 5 (V5) LIMS data indicated increases in HNO3 without a corresponding decrease in NO2 in that region and a quasi-wave 2 signature in the zonal distribution of HNO3, unlike the wave 1 signal in ozone and other tracers. Version 6 (V6) LIMS also shows an increase of HNO3 in that region, but NO2 is smaller than from V5. The focus here is to convey that V6 HNO3 and NO2 are of good quality, as shown by a re-examination of their mutual changes in the AH region. Photochemical model calculations initialized with LIMS V6 data show increases of about 2 ppbv in HNO3 over 10 days along trajectories terminating in the AH region on 28 January. Those increases are mainly a result of the nighttime heterogeneous conversion of N2O5 on background stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols. Changes in the composition of the air parcels depend on the extent of exposure to sunlight and, hence, on the dynamically controlled history of the trajectories. Trajectories that begin in low latitudes and traverse to across the North Pole in a short time lead to the low HNO3 in the region separating the anticyclone from the polar vortex, both of which contain higher HNO3. These findings help to explain the observed seasonal evolution and areal extent of both species. V6 HNO3 and NO2 are suitable, within their errors, for the validation of stratospheric chemistry-climate models.