Prediction of early-phase cytomegalovirus pneumonia in post-stem cell transplantation using a deep learning model.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic challenges exist for CMV pneumonia in post-hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (post-HSCT) patients, despite early-phase radiographic changes. OBJECTIVE: The study aims to employ a deep learning model distinguishing CMV pneumonia from COVID-19 pneumonia, community-acquired pneumonia, and normal lungs post-HSCT. METHODS: Initially, 6 neural network models were pre-trained with COVID-19 pneumonia, community-acquired pneumonia, and normal lung CT images from Kaggle's COVID multiclass dataset (Dataset A), then Dataset A was combined with the CMV pneumonia images from our center, forming Dataset B. We use a few-shot transfer learning strategy to fine-tune the pre-trained models and evaluate model performance in Dataset B. RESULTS: 34 cases of CMV pneumonia were found between January 2018 and December 2022 post-HSCT. Dataset A contained 1681 images of each subgroup from Kaggle. Combined with Dataset A, Dataset B was initially formed by 98 images of CMV pneumonia and normal lung. The optimal model (Xception) achieved an accuracy of 0.9034. Precision, recall, and F1-score all reached 0.9091, with an AUC of 0.9668 in the test set of Dataset B. CONCLUSIONS: This framework demonstrates the deep learning model's ability to distinguish rare pneumonia types utilizing a small volume of CT images, facilitating early detection of CMV pneumonia post-HSCT.

Molecular subtype identification of cerebral ischemic stroke based on ferroptosis-related genes.

Cerebral ischemic stroke (CIS) has the characteristics of a high incidence, disability, and mortality rate. Here, we aimed to explore the potential pathogenic mechanisms of ferroptosis-related genes (FRGs) in CIS. Three microarray datasets from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database were utilized to analyze differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between CIS and normal controls. FRGs were obtained from a literature report and the FerrDb database. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) and protein-protein interaction (PPI) network were used to screen hub genes. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was adopted to evaluate the diagnostic value of key genes in CIS, followed by analysis of immune microenvironment, transcription factor (TF) regulatory network, drug prediction, and molecular docking. In total, 128 CIS samples were divided into 2 subgroups after clustering analysis. Compared with cluster A, 1560 DEGs were identified in cluster B. After the construction of the WGCNA and PPI network, 5 hub genes, including MAPK3, WAS, DNAJC5, PRKCD, and GRB2, were identified for CIS. Interestingly, MAPK3 was a FRG that differentially expressed between cluster A and cluster B. The expression levels of 5 hub genes were all specifically highly in cluster A subtype. It is noted that neutrophils were the most positively correlated with all 5 real hub genes. PRKCD was one of the target genes of FASUDIL. In conclusion, five real hub genes were identified as potential diagnostic markers, which can distinguish the two subtypes well.

An assessment of the malaria-related knowledge and practices of Tanzania's drug retailers: exploring the impact of drug store accreditation.

BACKGROUND: Since 2003 Tanzania has upgraded its approximately 7000 drug stores to Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs), involving dispenser training, introduction of record keeping and enhanced regulation. Prior to accreditation, drug stores could officially stock over-the-counter medicines only, though many stocked prescription-only antimalarials. ADDOs are permitted to stock 49 prescription-only medicines, including artemisinin combination therapies and one form of quinine injectable. Oral artemisinin monotherapies and other injectables were not permitted at any time. By late 2011 conversion was complete in 14 of 21 regions. We explored variation in malaria-related knowledge and practices of drug retailers in ADDO and non-ADDO regions. METHODS: Data were collected as part of the Independent Evaluation of the Affordable Medicines Facility - malaria (AMFm), involving a nationally representative survey of antimalarial retailers in October-December 2011. We randomly selected 49 wards and interviewed all drug stores stocking antimalarials. We compare ADDO and non-ADDO regions, excluding the largest city, Dar es Salaam, due to the unique characteristics of its market. RESULTS: Interviews were conducted in 133 drug stores in ADDO regions and 119 in non-ADDO regions. Staff qualifications were very similar in both areas. There was no significant difference in the availability of the first line antimalarial (68.9% in ADDO regions and 65.2% in non-ADDO regions); both areas had over 98% availability of non-artemisinin therapies and below 3.0% of artemisinin monotherapies. Staff in ADDO regions had better knowledge of the first line antimalarial than non-ADDO regions (99.5% and 91.5%, p = 0.001). There was weak evidence of a lower price and higher market share of the first line antimalarial in ADDO regions. Drug stores in ADDO regions were more likely to stock ADDO-certified injectables than those in non-ADDO regions (23.0% and 3.9%, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: ADDO conversion is frequently cited as a model for improving retail sector drug provision. Drug stores in ADDO regions performed better on some indicators, possibly indicating some small benefits from ADDO conversion, but also weaknesses in ADDO regulation and high staff turnover. More evidence is needed on the value-added and value for money of the ADDO roll out to inform retail policy in Tanzania and elsewhere.

The Affordable Medicines Facility-malaria (AMFm): are remote areas benefiting from the intervention?

BACKGROUND: To assess the availability, price and market share of quality-assured artemisinin-based combination therapy (QAACT) in remote areas (RAs) compared with non-remote areas (nRAs) in Kenya and Ghana at end-line of the Affordable Medicines Facility-malaria (AMFm) intervention. METHODS: Areas were classified by remoteness using a composite index computed from estimated travel times to three levels of service centres. The index was used to five categories of remoteness, which were then grouped into two categories of remote and non-remote areas. The number of public or private outlets with the potential to sell or distribute anti-malarial medicines, screened in nRAs and RAs, respectively, was 501 and 194 in Ghana and 9980 and 2353 in Kenya. The analysis compares RAs with nRAs in terms of availability, price and market share of QAACT in each country. RESULTS: QAACT were similarly available in RAs as nRAs in Ghana and Kenya. In both countries, there was no statistical difference in availability of QAACT with AMFm logo between RAs and nRAs in public health facilities (PHFs), while private-for-profit (PFP) outlets had lower availability in RA than in nRAs (Ghana: 66.0 vs 82.2 %, p < 0.0001; Kenya: 44.9 vs 63.5 %, p = <0.0001. The median price of QAACT with AMFm logo for PFP outlets in RAs (USD1.25 in Ghana and USD0.69 in Kenya) was above the recommended retail price in Ghana (US$0.95) and Kenya (US$0.46), and much higher than in nRAs for both countries. QAACT with AMFm logo represented the majority of QAACT in RAs and nRAs in Kenya and Ghana. In the PFP sector in Ghana, the market share for QAACT with AMFm logo was significantly higher in RAs than in nRAs (75.6 vs 51.4 %, p < 0.0001). In contrast, in similar outlets in Kenya, the market share of QAACT with AMFm logo was significantly lower in RAs than in nRAs (39.4 vs 65.1 %, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The findings indicate the AMFm programme contributed to making QAACT more available in RAs in these two countries. Therefore, the AMFm approach can inform other health interventions aiming at reaching hard-to-reach populations, particularly in the context of universal access to health interventions. However, further examination of the factors accounting for the deep penetration of the AMFm programme into RAs is needed to inform actions to improve the healthcare delivery system, particularly in RAs.

Availability and price of malaria rapid diagnostic tests in the public and private health sectors in 2011: results from 10 nationally representative cross-sectional retail surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the state of the public and private malaria diagnostics market shortly after WHO updated its guidelines for testing all suspected malaria cases prior to treatment. METHODS: Ten nationally representative cross-sectional cluster surveys were conducted in 2011 among public and private health facilities, community health workers and retail outlets (pharmacies and drug shops) in nine countries (Tanzania mainland and Zanzibar surveyed separately). Eligible outlets had antimalarials in stock on the day of interview or had stocked antimalarials in the past 3 months. RESULTS: Three thousand four hundred and thirty-nine rapid diagnostic test (RDT) products from 39 manufacturers were audited among 12,197 outlets interviewed. Availability was typically highest in public health facilities, although availability in these facilities varied greatly across countries, from 15% in Nigeria to >90% in Madagascar and Cambodia. Private for-profit sector availability was 46% in Cambodia, 20% in Zambia, but low in other countries. Median retail prices for RDTs in the private for-profit sector ranged from $0.00 in Madagascar to $3.13 in Zambia. The reported number of RDTs used in the 7 days before the survey in public health facilities ranged from 3 (Benin) to 50 (Zambia). CONCLUSIONS: Eighteen months after WHO updated its case management guidelines, RDT availability remained poor in the private sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Given the ongoing importance of the private sector as a source of fever treatment, the goal of universal diagnosis will not be achievable under current circumstances. These results constitute national baselines against which progress in scaling-up diagnostic tests can be assessed.

Improving access to malaria medicine through private-sector subsidies in seven African countries.

Improving access to quality-assured artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) is an important component of malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. In 2010 the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria launched the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria (AMFm) program in seven African countries. The goal of the program was to decrease malaria morbidity and delay drug resistance by increasing the use of ACTs, primarily through subsidies intended to reduce costs. We collected data on price and retail markups on antimalarial medicines from 19,625 private for-profit retail outlets before and 6-15 months after the program's implementation. We found that in six of the AMFm pilot programs, prices for quality-assured ACTs decreased by US$1.28-$4.34, and absolute retail markups on these therapies decreased by US$0.31-$1.03. Prices and markups on other classes of antimalarials also changed during the evaluation period, but not to the same extent. In all but two of the pilot programs, we found evidence that prices could fall further without suppliers' losing money. Thus, concerns may be warranted that wholesalers and retailers are capturing subsidies instead of passing them on to consumers. These findings demonstrate that supranational subsidies can dramatically reduce retail prices of health commodities and that recommended retail prices communicated to a wide audience may be an effective mechanism for controlling the market power of private-sector antimalarial retailers and wholesalers.

Has Tanzania embraced the green leaf? Results from outlet and household surveys before and after implementation of the Affordable Medicines Facility-malaria.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Medicines Facility-malaria (AMFm) is primarily an artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) subsidy, aimed at increasing availability, affordability, market share and use of quality-assured ACTs (QAACTs). Mainland Tanzania was one of eight national scale programmes where AMFm was introduced in 2010. Here we present findings from outlet and household surveys before and after AMFm implementation to evaluate its impact from both the supply and demand side. METHODS: Outlet surveys were conducted in 49 randomly selected wards throughout mainland Tanzania in 2010 and 2011, and data on outlet characteristics and stocking patterns were collected from outlets stocking antimalarials. Household surveys were conducted in 240 randomly selected enumeration areas in three regions in 2010 and 2012. Questions about treatment seeking for fever and drugs obtained were asked of individuals reporting fever in the previous two weeks. RESULTS: The availability of QAACTs increased from 25.5% to 69.5% among all outlet types, with the greatest increase among pharmacies and drug stores, together termed specialised drug sellers (SDSs), where the median QAACT price fell from $5.63 to $0.94. The market share of QAACTs increased from 26.2% to 42.2%, again with the greatest increase in SDSs. Household survey results showed a shift in treatment seeking away from the public sector towards SDSs. Overall, there was no change in the proportion of people with fever obtaining an antimalarial or ACT from baseline to endline. However, when broken down by treatment source, ACT use increased significantly among clients visiting SDSs. DISCUSSION: Unchanged ACT use overall, despite increases in QAACT availability, affordability and market share in the private sector, reflected a shift in treatment seeking towards private providers. The reasons for this shift are unclear, but likely reflect both persistent stockouts in public facilities, and the increased availability of subsidised ACTs in the private sector.

Communicating the AMFm message: exploring the effect of communication and training interventions on private for-profit provider awareness and knowledge related to a multi-country anti-malarial subsidy intervention.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Medicines Facility - malaria (AMFm), implemented at national scale in eight African countries or territories, subsidized quality-assured artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) and included communication campaigns to support implementation and promote appropriate anti-malarial use. This paper reports private for-profit provider awareness of key features of the AMFm programme, and changes in provider knowledge of appropriate malaria treatment. METHODS: This study had a non-experimental design based on nationally representative surveys of outlets stocking anti-malarials before (2009/10) and after (2011) the AMFm roll-out. RESULTS: Based on data from over 19,500 outlets, results show that in four of eight settings, where communication campaigns were implemented for 5-9 months, 76%-94% awareness of the AMFm 'green leaf' logo, 57%-74% awareness of the ACT subsidy programme, and 52%-80% awareness of the correct recommended retail price (RRP) of subsidized ACT were recorded. However, in the remaining four settings where communication campaigns were implemented for three months or less, levels were substantially lower. In six of eight settings, increases of at least 10 percentage points in private for-profit providers' knowledge of the correct first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria were seen; and in three of these the levels of knowledge achieved at endline were over 80%. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the interpretation that, in addition to the availability of subsidized ACT, the intensity of communication campaigns may have contributed to the reported levels of AMFm-related awareness and knowledge among private for-profit providers. Future subsidy programmes for anti-malarials or other treatments should similarly include communication activities.

Measuring coverage in MNCH: total survey error and the interpretation of intervention coverage estimates from household surveys.

Nationally representative household surveys are increasingly relied upon to measure maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) intervention coverage at the population level in low- and middle-income countries. Surveys are the best tool we have for this purpose and are central to national and global decision making. However, all survey point estimates have a certain level of error (total survey error) comprising sampling and non-sampling error, both of which must be considered when interpreting survey results for decision making. In this review, we discuss the importance of considering these errors when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage estimates derived from household surveys, using relevant examples from national surveys to provide context. Sampling error is usually thought of as the precision of a point estimate and is represented by 95% confidence intervals, which are measurable. Confidence intervals can inform judgments about whether estimated parameters are likely to be different from the real value of a parameter. We recommend, therefore, that confidence intervals for key coverage indicators should always be provided in survey reports. By contrast, the direction and magnitude of non-sampling error is almost always unmeasurable, and therefore unknown. Information error and bias are the most common sources of non-sampling error in household survey estimates and we recommend that they should always be carefully considered when interpreting MNCH intervention coverage based on survey data. Overall, we recommend that future research on measuring MNCH intervention coverage should focus on refining and improving survey-based coverage estimates to develop a better understanding of how results should be interpreted and used.

Effect of the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria (AMFm) on the availability, price, and market share of quality-assured artemisinin-based combination therapies in seven countries: a before-and-after analysis of outlet survey data.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is one of the greatest causes of mortality worldwide. Use of the most effective treatments for malaria remains inadequate for those in need, and there is concern over the emergence of resistance to these treatments. In 2010, the Global Fund launched the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria (AMFm), a series of national-scale pilot programmes designed to increase the access and use of quality-assured artemisinin based combination therapies (QAACTs) and reduce that of artemisinin monotherapies for treatment of malaria. AMFm involves manufacturer price negotiations, subsidies on the manufacturer price of each treatment purchased, and supporting interventions such as communications campaigns. We present findings on the effect of AMFm on QAACT price, availability, and market share, 6-15 months after the delivery of subsidised ACTs in Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania (including Zanzibar). METHODS: We did nationally representative baseline and endpoint surveys of public and private sector outlets that stock antimalarial treatments. QAACTs were identified on the basis of the Global Fund's quality assurance policy. Changes in availability, price, and market share were assessed against specified success benchmarks for 1 year of AMFm implementation. Key informant interviews and document reviews recorded contextual factors and the implementation process. FINDINGS: In all pilots except Niger and Madagascar, there were large increases in QAACT availability (25·8-51·9 percentage points), and market share (15·9-40·3 percentage points), driven mainly by changes in the private for-profit sector. Large falls in median price for QAACTs per adult equivalent dose were seen in the private for-profit sector in six pilots, ranging from US$1·28 to $4·82. The market share of oral artemisinin monotherapies decreased in Nigeria and Zanzibar, the two pilots where it was more than 5% at baseline. INTERPRETATION: Subsidies combined with supporting interventions can be effective in rapidly improving availability, price, and market share of QAACTs, particularly in the private for-profit sector. Decisions about the future of AMFm should also consider the effect on use in vulnerable populations, access to malaria diagnostics, and cost-effectiveness. FUNDING: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.