The Causes and Consequences of Drifting Expectations.

Awaiting news of uncertain outcomes is distressing because the news might be disappointing. To prevent such disappointments, people often "brace for the worst," pessimistically lowering expectations before news arrives to decrease the possibility of surprising disappointment (a negative prediction error, or PE). Computational decision-making research commonly assumes that expectations do not drift within trials, yet it is unclear whether expectations pessimistically drift in real-world, high-stakes settings, what factors influence expectation drift, and whether it effectively buffers emotional responses to goal-relevant outcomes. Moreover, individuals learn from PEs to accurately anticipate future outcomes, but it is unknown whether expectation drift also impedes PE-based learning. In a sample of students awaiting exam grades (N = 625), we found that expectations often drift and tend to drift pessimistically. We demonstrate that bracing is preferentially modulated by uncertainty; it transiently buffers the initial emotional impact of negative PEs but impairs PE-based learning, counterintuitively sustaining uncertainty into the future.

The affective benefits of real-world exploration during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Increasing daily exploration is linked to improvements in affective well-being. However, COVID-19 elevated uncertainty when leaving the home, altering the risk-reward of balance of geospatial novelty. To this end, we simultaneously collected real-world geospatial tracking and experience sampling of emotion, prior to and during the first year of the pandemic in 630 individuals. COVID-19 reduced exploration and subjective well-being. Yet, despite the health risks of exploring during the pandemic, the days of highest affective well-being were those when individuals explored the most. However, this was not true for everyone: during the first months of the pandemic, at the height of the uncertainty surrounding the transmissibility and prognosis of a COVID-19 infection, more anxious individuals experienced no affective benefit to leaving home. Taken together, real-world exploration improved well-being regardless of the presence of real-world threat, but anxiety mitigated these benefits. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).