Biomarker-driven basket trial designs: origins and new methodological developments.

Due to increased use of gene sequencing techniques, understanding of cancer on a molecular level has evolved, in terms of both diagnosis and evaluation in response to initial therapies. In parallel, clinical trials meant to evaluate molecularly-driven interventions through assessment of both treatment effects and putative predictive biomarker effects are being employed to advance the goals of precision medicine. Basket trials investigate one or more biomarker-targeted therapies across multiple cancer types in a tumor location agnostic fashion. The review article offers an overview of the traditional forms of such designs, the practical challenges facing each type of design, and then review novel adaptations proposed in the last few years, categorized into Bayesian and Classical Frequentist perspectives. The review article concludes by summarizing potential advantages and limitations of the new trial design solutions.

Bilateral Wilms tumor with anaplasia: A report from the Children's Oncology Group Study AREN0534.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study is to examine the outcomes in children with anaplastic bilateral Wilms tumor (BWT) from study AREN0534 in order to define potential prognostic factors and areas to target in future clinical trials. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data from AREN0534 study patients with anaplasia (focal anaplasia [FA], or diffuse anaplasia [DA]) were compared. Event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were reported using Kaplan-Meier estimation with 95% confidence bands, and differences in outcomes between FA and DA compared using log-rank tests. The impact of margin status was analyzed. RESULTS: Twenty-seven children who enrolled on AREN0534 had evidence of anaplasia (17 DA, 10 FA) in at least one kidney and were included in this analysis. Twenty-six (96%) had BWT. Nineteen percent had anaplastic histology in both kidneys (four of 17 DA, and one of 10 FA). Forty-six percent with BWT had bilateral nephron-sparing surgery (NSS); one child who went off protocol therapy, eventually required bilateral completion nephrectomies. Median follow-up for EFS and OS was 8.6 and 8.7 years from enrollment. Four- and 8-year EFS was 53% [95% confidence interval (CI): 34%-83%] for DA; 4-year EFS was 80% [95% CI: 59%-100%], and 8-year EFS 70% [95% CI: 47%-100%] for FA. Three out of 10 children with FA and eight out of 17 children with DA had events. EFS did not differ statistically by margin status (p = .79; HR = 0.88). Among the six children who died (five DA, one FA), all experienced prior relapse or progression within 18 months. CONCLUSION: Events in children with DA/FA in the setting of BWT occurred early. Caution should be taken about interpreting the impact of margin status outcomes in the context of contemporary multimodal therapy. Future targeted investigations in children with BWT and DA/FA are needed.

Treatment and outcomes of clear cell sarcoma of the kidney: A report from the Children's Oncology Group studies AREN0321 and AREN03B2.

BACKGROUND: On the fifth National Wilms Tumor Study, treatment for clear cell sarcoma of the kidney (CCSK) included combined vincristine, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and etoposide (regimen I) plus radiation therapy (RT), yielding 5-year event-free survival (EFS) rates of 100%, 88%, 73%, and 29% for patients who had with stage I, II, III, and IV disease, respectively. In the Children's Oncology Group study AREN0321 of risk-adapted therapy, RT was omitted for stage I disease if lymph nodes were sampled, and carboplatin was added for stage IV disease (regimen UH-1). Patients who had stage II/III disease received regimen I with RT. METHODS: Four-year EFS was analyzed for patients enrolled on AREN0321 and on those enrolled on AREN03B2 who received AREN0321 stage-appropriate chemotherapy. RESULTS: Eighty-two patients with CCSK enrolled on AREN0321, 50 enrolled on AREN03B2 only. The 4-year EFS rate was 82.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 74.8%-91.4%) for AREN0321 and 89.6% (95% CI, 81.3%-98.7%) for AREN03B2 only (p = .28). When combining studies, the 4-year EFS rates for patients who had stage I (n = 10), II (n = 47), III (n = 65), and IV (n = 10) disease were 90% (95% CI, 73.2%-100.0%), 93.4% (95% CI, 86.4%-100.0%), 82.8% (95% CI, 74.1%-92.6%), and 58.3% (95% CI, 34%-100.0%), respectively. There were no local recurrences among seven patients with stage I disease who were treated without RT. One stage I recurrence occurred in the brain, which was the most common site of relapse overall. Among patients with local stage III tumors, neither initial procedure type, margin status, nor lymph node involvement were prognostic. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with stage I CCSK had excellent outcomes without local recurrences when treated without RT. Patients with stage IV disease appeared to benefit from a carboplatin-containing regimen, although their outcomes remained unsatisfactory. Further research is needed to improve outcomes for patients with advanced-stage disease (ClinicalTrials.gov identifiers NCT00335556 and NCT00898365).

Race and Ethnic Group Enrollment and Outcomes for Wilms Tumor: Analysis of the Current Era Children's Oncology Group Study, AREN03B2.

BACKGROUND: To review race and ethnic group enrollment and outcomes for Wilms tumor (WT) across all 4 risk-assigned therapeutic trials from the current era Children's Oncology Group Renal Tumor Biology and Risk Stratification Protocol, AREN03B2. STUDY DESIGN: For patients with WT enrolled in AREN03B2 (2006 to 2019), disease and biologic features, therapeutic study-specific enrollment, and event-free (EFS) and overall (OS) 4-year survival were compared between institutionally reported race and ethnic groups. RESULTS: Among 5,146 patients with WT, no statistically significant differences were detected between race and ethnic groups regarding subsequent risk-assigned therapeutic study enrollment, disease stage, histology, biologic factors, or overall EFS or OS, except the following variables: Black children were older and had larger tumors at enrollment, whereas Hispanic children had lower rates of diffuse anaplasia WT and loss of heterozygosity at 1p. The only significant difference in EFS or OS between race and ethnic groups was observed among the few children treated for diffuse anaplasia WT with regimen UH-1 and -2 on high-risk protocol, AREN0321. On this therapeutic arm only, Black children showed worse EFS (hazard ratio = 3.18) and OS (hazard ratio = 3.42). However, this finding was not replicated for patients treated with regimen UH-1 and -2 under AREN03B2 but not on AREN0321. CONCLUSIONS: Race and ethnic group enrollment appeared constant across AREN03B2 risk-assigned therapeutic trials. EFS and OS on these therapeutic trials when analyzed together were comparable regarding race and ethnicity. Black children may have experienced worse stage-specific survival when treated with regimen UH-1 and -2 on AREN0321, but this survival gap was not confirmed when analyzing additional high-risk AREN03B2 patients.

Treatment of children with favorable histology Wilms tumor with extrapulmonary metastases: A report from the COG studies AREN0533 and AREN03B2 and NWTSG study NWTS-5.

BACKGROUND: Patients with stage IV favorable histology Wilms tumor (FHWT) with extrapulmonary metastases (EPM) constitute a small subset of patients with FHWT. Because of their rarity and heterogeneity, optimal FHWT treatment is not well understood. Children's Oncology Group protocol AREN0533 assigned patients with FHWT and EPM to intensified chemotherapy, regimen M, after initial DD-4A chemotherapy. To improve understanding of prognostic factors and best therapies, experiences of patients with EPM on AREN0533, as well as on protocols AREN03B2 and NWTS-5, were reviewed. METHODS: Combined outcomes for patients with EPM from NWTS-5, AREN0533, and AREN03B2 were determined. Those treated on AREN0533 were compared with those treated on NWTS-5. Prognostic factors were explored in the pooled cohort. RESULTS: Forty-seven patients with FHWT with EPM enrolled on AREN0533, 37 enrolled on NWTS-5, and 64 were followed only on AREN03B2. The pooled cohort of all 148 patients demonstrated a 4-year event-free survival (EFS) of 77.3% (95% CI, 70.8-84.4) and 4-year overall survival of 88.9% (95% CI, 83.9-94.2). Four-year EFS of patients with EPM treated on AREN0533 was 76.0% (95% CI, 64.6-89.4) vs 64.9% (95% CI, 51.7-82.2) on NWTS-5; hazard ratio, 0.64, p = .26; no difference in overall survival was observed. Increasing linear age and slow incomplete lung response were associated with worse EFS in a pooled cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes for patients with EPM are among the lowest for children with FHWT. Further trials with standardized surgical and radiation treatment to metastatic sites, and prospectively collected biologic and treatment details are needed. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov identifiers: NCT00379340, NCT00898365, and NCT00002611.

Prognostic impact of lymph node involvement and loss of heterozygosity of 1p or 16q in stage III favorable histology Wilms tumor: A report from Children's Oncology Group Studies AREN03B2 and AREN0532.

INTRODUCTION: The prognostic impact of positive lymph nodes (LN+) and/or singular loss of heterozygosity (LOH) of 1p or 16q were assessed in children with stage III favorable histology Wilms tumor (FHWT) enrolled on AREN0532 or AREN03B2 alone. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 635 stage III FHWT vincristine/dactinomycin/doxorubicin (DD4A)-treated patients met inclusion criteria. Event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival are reported overall and by LN sampling, LN status, LOH 1p, LOH 16q, and a combination of LN status and singular LOH. Patients with unknown or positive combined LOH of 1p and 16q status and AREN03B2-only patients with unknown outcomes or treatment other than DD4A were excluded. RESULTS: EFS did not differ by study, supporting pooling. Lack of LN sampling (hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; p = .0037), LN positivity (HR, 2.78; p = .0002), LOH 1p (HR, 2.18; p = .0067), and LOH 16q (HR, 1.72; p = .042) were associated with worse EFS. Compared with patients with both LN- and LOH-, those with negative nodes but positive LOH 1p or 16q and those with LN+ but LOH- for 1p or 16q had significantly worse EFS (HR, 3.05 and 3.57, respectively). Patients positive for both LN and LOH had the worst EFS (HR, 6.33; overall group factor, p < .0001). CONCLUSION: Findings confirm LN+ status as an adverse prognostic factor amplified by presence of singular LOH 1p or 16q, supporting study of intensified therapy for patients with LN+ in combination with singular LOH in a prospective clinical trial.

BRAF Exon 15 Mutations in the Evaluation of Well-Differentiated Epithelial Nephroblastic Neoplasms in Children: A Report From the Children's Oncology Group Study AREN03B2.

CONTEXT.­: The distinction between well-differentiated epithelial favorable-histology Wilms tumor (EFHWT) and metanephric adenoma (MA) in children has historically been determined by the required absence of both a fibrous pseudocapsule and mitotic activity in MA. More recently these features have been allowed in adult MA. Mutations in exon 15 of the BRAF gene are reported in up to 88% of MAs but have not been reported in EFHWTs. OBJECTIVE.­: To clarify the pathologic and molecular features used to distinguish between pediatric MA and EFHWT. DESIGN.­: Stage I epithelial tumors classified as EFHWT on central review (36 patients) were identified from the Children's Oncology Group AREN03B2 study. Thirteen tumors had morphologic features overlapping those of MA and 23 lacked such features; 35 of 36 had tissue available for sequencing of BRAF. RESULTS.­: Patients with EFHWTs with MA features (13) were older (mean, 8.4 versus 1.9 years; P < .001), had smaller tumor diameters (mean, 6.0 versus 9.7 cm; P < .001), and had fewer mitoses (mean, 1 versus 48 mitoses per 10 high-power fields; P < .001) than patients with EFHWT lacking MA features (23). All EFHWTs with MA features contained at least a partial fibrous pseudocapsule; 7 of 12 (58%) had BRAF exon 15 mutation. No BRAF exon 15 mutations were identified in 23 EFHWTs lacking MA features. None of the 13 EFHWT patients with MA features have experienced relapse (median follow-up 5.9 years). CONCLUSIONS.­: Pediatric epithelial neoplasms with features of MA that show partial encapsulation and/or modest mitotic activity may be classified as MAs. Although BRAF mutation supports the diagnosis of MA, it is not required for the diagnosis.

Genetic and epigenetic features of bilateral Wilms tumor predisposition in patients from the Children's Oncology Group AREN18B5-Q.

Developing synchronous bilateral Wilms tumor suggests an underlying (epi)genetic predisposition. Here, we evaluate this predisposition in 68 patients using whole exome or genome sequencing (n = 85 tumors from 61 patients with matched germline blood DNA), RNA-seq (n = 99 tumors), and DNA methylation analysis (n = 61 peripheral blood, n = 29 non-diseased kidney, n = 99 tumors). We determine the predominant events for bilateral Wilms tumor predisposition: 1)pre-zygotic germline genetic variants readily detectable in blood DNA [WT1 (14.8%), NYNRIN (6.6%), TRIM28 (5%), and BRCA-related genes (5%)] or 2)post-zygotic epigenetic hypermethylation at 11p15.5 H19/ICR1 that may require analysis of multiple tissue types for diagnosis. Of 99 total tumor specimens, 16 (16.1%) have 11p15.5 normal retention of imprinting, 25 (25.2%) have 11p15.5 copy neutral loss of heterozygosity, and 58 (58.6%) have 11p15.5 H19/ICR1 epigenetic hypermethylation (loss of imprinting). Here, we ascertain the epigenetic and genetic modes of bilateral Wilms tumor predisposition.

Children's Oncology Group's 2023 blueprint for research: Renal tumors.

Every year, approximately 600 infants, children, and adolescents are diagnosed with renal cancer in the United States. In addition to Wilms tumor (WT), which accounts for about 80% of all pediatric renal cancers, clear cell sarcoma of the kidney, renal cell carcinoma, malignant rhabdoid tumor, as well as more rare cancers (other sarcomas, rare carcinomas, lymphoma) and benign tumors can originate within the kidney. WT itself can be divided into favorable histology (FHWT), with a 5-year overall survival (OS) exceeding 90%, and anaplastic histology, with 4-year OS of 73.7%. Outcomes of the other pediatric renal cancers include clear cell sarcoma (5-year OS: 90%), malignant rhabdoid tumor (5-year OS: 10% for stages 3 and 4), and renal cell carcinoma (4-year OS: 84.8%). Recent clinical trials have identified novel biological prognostic markers for FHWT, and a series of Children's Oncology Group (COG) trials have demonstrated improving outcomes with therapy modification, and opportunities for further care refinement.

Severe Hepatopathy in National Wilms Tumor Studies 3-5: Prevalence, Clinical Features, and Outcomes After Reintroduction of Chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: The safety of reintroducing chemotherapy in the pediatric renal tumor setting after severe hepatopathy (SH), including sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (SOS), is uncertain. We describe the incidence, severity, outcomes, and impact on subsequent treatment for patients with SH from National Wilms Tumor Study (NWTS) protocols 3-5. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Archived charts for patients enrolled on NWTS 3-5 who met study inclusion criteria for SH by using established hepatopathy grading scales and clinical criteria were reviewed for demographics, tumor characteristics, radio- and chemotherapy details, SH-related dose modifications, and oncologic outcomes. Genomic analysis for candidate polymorphisms associated with SH was performed in 14 patients. RESULTS: Seventy-one of 8,862 patients (0.8%) met study inclusion criteria. The median time from therapy initiation to SH was 51 days (range, 2-293 days). Sixty percent received radiotherapy, and 56% had right-sided tumors. Grade 1-4 thrombocytopenia was noted in 70% at initial occurrence of SH (median 22,000/microliter). Among 69 of 71 children with SH occurring before the end of therapy (EOT) and post-SH treatment information available, chemotherapy was delayed posthepatopathy for 65% (69% of these at a reduced dose), continued without delay for 20% (57% of these at reduced dose), and stopped completely for 15% (4 of 10 of whom died of SH). Overall, 42% of patients with dose reductions achieved full dose by EOT. The five-year post-SH event-free survival for patients who continued therapy was 89% (95% CI, 81 to 98), with no significant differences by whether delay or dose reduction occurred. We identified no SH-associated pharmacogenomic polymorphism. CONCLUSION: The incidence of SH on NWTS 3-5 was low; many had associated severe thrombocytopenia. Careful reintroduction of chemotherapy appeared to be feasible for the majority of patients who developed severe chemotherapy- and/or radiotherapy-induced liver toxicity.

The Genetic and Epigenetic Features of Bilateral Wilms Tumor Predisposition: A Report from the Children's Oncology Group AREN18B5-Q Study.

This study comprehensively evaluated the landscape of genetic and epigenetic events that predispose to synchronous bilateral Wilms tumor (BWT). We performed whole exome or whole genome sequencing, total-strand RNA-seq, and DNA methylation analysis using germline and/or tumor samples from 68 patients with BWT from St. Jude Children's Research Hospital and the Children's Oncology Group. We found that 25/61 (41%) of patients evaluated harbored pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline variants, with WT1 (14.8%), NYNRIN (6.6%), TRIM28 (5%) and the BRCA-related genes (5%) BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 being most common. Germline WT1 variants were strongly associated with somatic paternal uniparental disomy encompassing the 11p15.5 and 11p13/WT1 loci and subsequent acquired pathogenic CTNNB1 variants. Somatic coding variants or genome-wide copy number alterations were almost never shared between paired synchronous BWT, suggesting that the acquisition of independent somatic variants leads to tumor formation in the context of germline or early embryonic, post-zygotic initiating events. In contrast, 11p15.5 status (loss of heterozygosity, loss or retention of imprinting) was shared among paired synchronous BWT in all but one case. The predominant molecular events for BWT predisposition include pathogenic germline variants or post-zygotic epigenetic hypermethylation at the 11p15.5 H19/ICR1 locus (loss of imprinting). This study demonstrates that post-zygotic somatic mosaicism for 11p15.5 hypermethylation/loss of imprinting is the single most common initiating molecular event predisposing to BWT. Evidence of somatic mosaicism for 11p15.5 loss of imprinting was detected in leukocytes of a cohort of BWT patients and long-term survivors, but not in unilateral Wilms tumor patients and long-term survivors or controls, further supporting the hypothesis that post-zygotic 11p15.5 alterations occurred in the mesoderm of patients who go on to develop BWT. Due to the preponderance of BWT patients with demonstrable germline or early embryonic tumor predisposition, BWT exhibits a unique biology when compared to unilateral Wilms tumor and therefore warrants continued refinement of its own treatment-relevant biomarkers which in turn may inform directed treatment strategies in the future.

Circulating Tumor DNA as a Biomarker in Patients With Stage III and IV Wilms Tumor: Analysis From a Children's Oncology Group Trial, AREN0533.

PURPOSE: The utility of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analyses has not been established in the risk stratification of Wilms tumor (WT). We evaluated the detection of ctDNA and selected risk markers in the serum and urine of patients with WT and compared findings with those of matched diagnostic tumor samples. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty of 395 children with stage III or IV WT enrolled on Children's Oncology Group trial AREN0533 had banked pretreatment serum, urine, and tumor available. Next-generation sequencing was used to detect ctDNA. Copy-number changes in 1q, 16q, and 1p, and single-nucleotide variants in serum and urine were compared with tumor biopsy data. Event-free survival (EFS) was compared between patients with and without ctDNA detection. RESULTS: ctDNA was detected in the serum of 41/50 (82%) and in the urine in 13/50 (26%) patients. Agreement between serum ctDNA detection and tumor sequencing results was as follows: 77% for 1q gain, 88% for 16q deletions, and 70% for 1p deletions, with ĸ-coefficients of 0.56, 0.74, and 0.29, respectively. Sequencing also demonstrated that single-nucleotide variants detected in tumors could be identified in the ctDNA. There was a trend toward worse EFS in patients with ctDNA detected in the serum (4-year EFS 80% v 100%, P = .14). CONCLUSION: ctDNA demonstrates promise as an easily accessible prognostic biomarker with potential to detect tumor heterogeneity. The observed trend toward more favorable outcome in patients with undetectable ctDNA requires validation. ctDNA profiling should be further explored as a noninvasive diagnostic and prognostic tool in the risk-adapted treatment of patients with WT.

Genetic changes associated with relapse in favorable histology Wilms tumor: A Children's Oncology Group AREN03B2 study.

Over the last decade, sequencing of primary tumors has clarified the genetic underpinnings of Wilms tumor but has not affected therapy, outcome, or toxicity. We now sharpen our focus on relapse samples from the umbrella AREN03B2 study. We show that over 40% of relapse samples contain mutations in SIX1 or genes of the MYCN network, drivers of progenitor proliferation. Not previously seen in large studies of primary Wilms tumors, DIS3 and TERT are now identified as recurrently mutated. The analysis of primary-relapse tumor pairs suggests that 11p15 loss of heterozygosity (and other copy number changes) and mutations in WT1 and MLLT1 typically occur early, but mutations in SIX1, MYCN, and WTX are late developments in some individuals. Most strikingly, 75% of relapse samples had gain of 1q, providing strong conceptual support for studying circulating tumor DNA in clinical trials to better detect 1q gain earlier and monitor response.

Bayesian adaptive trial design for a continuous biomarker with possibly nonlinear or nonmonotone prognostic or predictive effects.

As diseases like cancer are increasingly understood on a molecular level, clinical trials are being designed to reveal or validate subpopulations in which an experimental therapy has enhanced benefit. Such biomarker-driven designs, particularly "adaptive enrichment" designs that initially enroll an unselected population and then allow for later restriction of accrual to "marker-positive" patients based on interim results, are increasingly popular. Many biomarkers of interest are naturally continuous, however, and most existing design approaches either require upfront dichotomization or force monotonicity through algorithmic searches for a single marker threshold, thereby excluding the possibility that the continuous biomarker has a nondisjoint and truly nonlinear or nonmonotone prognostic relationship with outcome or predictive relationship with treatment effect. To address this, we propose a novel trial design that leverages both the actual shapes of any continuous marker effects (both prognostic and predictive) and their corresponding posterior uncertainty in an adaptive decision-making framework. At interim analyses, this marker knowledge is updated and overall or marker-driven decisions are reached such as continuing enrollment to the next interim analysis or terminating early for efficacy or futility. Using simulations and patient-level data from a multi-center Children's Oncology Group trial in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia, we derive the operating characteristics of our design and compare its performance to a traditional approach that identifies and applies a dichotomizing marker threshold.

Impact of the First Generation of Children's Oncology Group Clinical Trials on Clinical Practice for Wilms Tumor.

Refinements in surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy since the mid-20th century have resulted in a survival rate exceeding 90% for patients with Wilms tumor (WT). Although this figure is remarkable, a significant proportion of patients continue to have event-free survival (EFS) estimates of <75%, and nearly 25% of survivors experience severe chronic medical conditions. The first-generation Children's Oncology Group (COG) renal tumor trials (AREN '0'), which opened to enrollment in 2006, focused on augmenting treatment regimens for WT subgroups with predicted EFS <75% to 80%, including those with the adverse prognostic marker of combined loss of heterozygosity (LOH) at chromosomes 1p/16q, pulmonary metastasis with incomplete lung nodule response after 6 weeks of chemotherapy, bilateral disease, and anaplastic histology. Conversely, therapy was reduced for patient subgroups with good outcomes and potential for long-term toxicity, such as those with lung metastasis with complete lung nodule response after 6 weeks of chemotherapy. This article summarizes the key findings of the first-generation COG renal tumor studies and their implications for clinical practice.

Point and interval estimation in two-stage adaptive designs with time to event data and biomarker-driven subpopulation selection.

In personalized medicine, it is often desired to determine if all patients or only a subset of them benefit from a treatment. We consider estimation in two-stage adaptive designs that in stage 1 recruit patients from the full population. In stage 2, patient recruitment is restricted to the part of the population, which, based on stage 1 data, benefits from the experimental treatment. Existing estimators, which adjust for using stage 1 data for selecting the part of the population from which stage 2 patients are recruited, as well as for the confirmatory analysis after stage 2, do not consider time to event patient outcomes. In this work, for time to event data, we have derived a new asymptotically unbiased estimator for the log hazard ratio and a new interval estimator with good coverage probabilities and probabilities that the upper bounds are below the true values. The estimators are appropriate for several selection rules that are based on a single or multiple biomarkers, which can be categorical or continuous.

Trial Design Challenges and Approaches for Precision Oncology in Rare Tumors: Experiences of the Children's Oncology Group.

In the United States, cancer remains the leading cause of disease-related death in children. Although survival from any pediatric cancer has improved dramatically during past decades, a number of cancers continue to yield dismal prognoses, which has motivated the continued study of novel therapeutic strategies. Furthermore, even patients cured of pediatric cancer often experience severe adverse effects of treatment and other long-term health implications, such as cardiotoxicity or loss of fertility. For these patients, improved risk stratification to identify those who could safely receive alternate or less-intensive therapy without affecting prognosis is a key objective. Fortunately, pediatric cancers are rare overall, but even among patients with the same narrow cancer type, there is often broad heterogeneity in terms of prognosis, molecular features or pathology, current treatment strategies, and scientific objectives. As a result, the design of clinical trials in the pediatric cancer setting is challenged by a number of practical issues that must be addressed to ensure trial feasibility for this vulnerable group of patients. In this review, we discuss some of the unique trial design considerations often encountered in any rare tumor setting through the lens of our experiences as faculty statisticians for the Children's Oncology Group, the largest organization in the world dedicated exclusively to pediatric cancer research and clinical trials. These topics include risk stratification within individual trials, relaxation of trial operating characteristics and parameters, use of historical controls, and address of noninferiority-type objectives in small cohorts. We review each in terms of practical motivation, present challenges, and potential solutions described in the literature and implemented in selected example trials from the Children's Oncology Group.

Clinicopathological differences and survival outcomes with first-line therapy in patients with left-sided colon cancer and rectal cancer: Pooled analysis of 2879 patients from AGITG (MAX), COIN, FOCUS2, OPUS, CRYSTAL and COIN-B trials in the ARCAD database.

PURPOSE: Patients with left-sided colon tumours have better survival and respond differently to biologics compared with patients with right-sided tumours. Left-sided colon tumours and rectal cancers are often grouped together. Herein, we examined the clinicopathological differences and outcomes between left-sided colon and rectal cancers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 2879 metastatic colorectal cancer patients enrolled on six first-line clinical trials during 2004-2010 were pooled. Patients were included if the primary tumour origin was clearly defined. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared in the two groups after adjusting for patient and tumour characteristics, metastatic sites and the first-line regimen. RESULTS: In total, 1374 patients with metastatic left-sided colon cancer and 1505 patients with metastatic rectal cancers were evaluated. Left-sided colon cancer patients were more likely to be female (40.1% versus 32.6%; P < 0.0001) and older (31.0% ≥ 70 years versus 25.8%; P = 0.0033) compared with rectal cancers patients. Patients with left-sided colon cancer had higher rates of liver metastases (80.9% versus 72.3%, P < 0.0001) but lower rates of lung metastases (34.2% versus 53.8%, P < 0.0001). KRAS mutations were slightly less frequent among left-sided tumours (34.8% versus 40.5%; P = 0.0103). Patients with left-sided tumours had approximately similar PFS (median 7.4 versus 6.9 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-1.03; P = 0.1998) and OS (median 17.4 versus 16.6 months; HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.91-1.07; P = 0.7597) compared with rectal cancer patients. CONCLUSION: The site of tumour origin within the left side was not prognostic of outcomes. Moreover, neither bevacizumab nor cetuximab impacted, differently, the findings of the comparisons in outcomes between patients with left-sided colon tumours or rectal cancers.

Point estimation following two-stage adaptive threshold enrichment clinical trials.

Recently, several study designs incorporating treatment effect assessment in biomarker-based subpopulations have been proposed. Most statistical methodologies for such designs focus on the control of type I error rate and power. In this paper, we have developed point estimators for clinical trials that use the two-stage adaptive enrichment threshold design. The design consists of two stages, where in stage 1, patients are recruited in the full population. Stage 1 outcome data are then used to perform interim analysis to decide whether the trial continues to stage 2 with the full population or a subpopulation. The subpopulation is defined based on one of the candidate threshold values of a numerical predictive biomarker. To estimate treatment effect in the selected subpopulation, we have derived unbiased estimators, shrinkage estimators, and estimators that estimate bias and subtract it from the naive estimate. We have recommended one of the unbiased estimators. However, since none of the estimators dominated in all simulation scenarios based on both bias and mean squared error, an alternative strategy would be to use a hybrid estimator where the estimator used depends on the subpopulation selected. This would require a simulation study of plausible scenarios before the trial.