Acceptability and feasibility of tests for infection, serological testing, and photography to define need for interventions against trachoma.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma causes blindness due to repeated conjunctival infection by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). Transmission intensity is estimated, for programmatic decision-making, by prevalence of the clinical sign trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years. Research into complementary indicators to field-graded TF includes work on conjunctival photography, tests for ocular Ct infection, and serology. The perceived acceptability and feasibility of these indicators among a variety of stakeholders is unknown. METHODOLOGY: Focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members and in-depth interviews (IDIs) with public health practitioners in Tanzania were conducted. FGDs explored themes including participants' experience with, and thoughts about, different diagnostic approaches. The framework method for content analysis was used. IDIs yielded lists of perceived strengths of, and barriers to, implementation for programmatic use of each indicator. These were used to form an online quantitative survey on complementary indicators distributed to global stakeholders via meetings, mailing lists, and social media posts. RESULTS: Sixteen FGDs and 11 IDIs were conducted in October-November 2022. In general, all proposed sample methods were deemed acceptable by community members. Common themes included not wanting undue discomfort and a preference for tests perceived as accurate. Health workers noted the importance of community education for some sample types. The online survey was conducted in April-May 2023 with 98 starting the questionnaire and 81 completing it. Regarding barriers to implementing diagnostics, the highest agreement items related to feasibility, rather than acceptability. No evidence of significant differences was found in responses pertaining to community acceptability based on participant characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: All of the indicators included were generally deemed acceptable by all stakeholders in Tanzania, although community education around the benefits and risks of different sample types, as well as addressing issues around feasibility, will be key to successful, sustainable integration of these indicators into trachoma programs.

District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Associated factors of the co-occurrence of trachoma and soil-transmitted helminthiases in children 1 to 9 years old in rural communities of the Amazon basin in Loreto Department, Peru: Results from a population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of the occurrence of trachoma in Peru, and studies have shown that soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) are affecting rural communities in the Amazon basin in Loreto Department. This study was done to estimate trachoma prevalence, STH prevalence, and the associated factors for both diseases in children aged 1-9 years in rural communities of Peru. METHODOLOGY: A population-based cross-sectional survey was carried out in rural communities of Loreto. A standardized survey questionnaire with individual and household risk factors related to both diseases was used. Ocular examination was done for all participants aged one year and above, and eye swab samples were collected from children with follicular trachoma (TF). Anthropometric measurements, stool samples for STH, and blood samples for hemoglobin measurement were taken from children. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: TF prevalence was 7.74% (95% CI 5.08-11.63%), STH prevalence was 49.49% (95% CI 25.00-52.43%), and prevalence of co-occurrence of both diseases was 5.06% (95% CI 2.80-8.98%) in children aged 1-9 years. Being at age 3-8 years old (AOR = 6.76; 95% CI 1.346-33.947), have an unclean face (AOR = 24.64; 95% CI 6.787-89.444), and having been dewormed in the last six months (AOR = 2.47; 95% CI 1.106-5.514), were risk factors of TF. Being a female (AOR = 0.22; 95% CI 0.103-0.457) was associated with decreased odds of TF. Having been dewormed in the last six months (AOR = 0.30; 95% CI 0.139-0.628) was a preventative factor for STH. Risk factors for children with both diseases mirrored the findings for risk factors for individual diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Neglected tropical diseases and associated risk factors overlap in communities living in vulnerable conditions in the Amazon basin of Peru. These findings support the need to implement integrated interventions, including mass drug administration, water, sanitation, and hygiene for both diseases in the study area.

Forecasting the elimination of active trachoma: An empirical model.

BACKGROUND: Great progress has been made toward the elimination of trachoma as a public-health problem. Mathematical and statistical models have been used to forecast when the program will attain the goal of the elimination of active trachoma, defined as prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular in 1-9 year olds (TF1-9) <5%. Here we use program data to create an empirical model predicting the year of attaining global elimination of TF1-9. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We calculated the mean number of years (95% CI) observed for an implementation unit (IU) to move from a baseline TF1-9 prevalence ≥5% to the elimination threshold, based on the region (Ethiopia vs. non-Ethiopia) and baseline prevalence category. Ethiopia IUs had significantly different rates of reaching the TF1-9 elimination threshold after a trachoma impact survey (TIS) compared to non-Ethiopia IUs across all baseline categories. We used those estimates to predict when remaining active trachoma-endemic IUs (TF1-9 ≥5%) would have their last round of mass drug administration (MDA) based on the mean number of years required and number of MDA rounds already completed. Our model predicts that elimination of TF1-9 will be achieved in 2028 in Ethiopia (95% CI: 2026-2033) and 2029 outside of Ethiopia (95% CI: 2023-2034), with some IUs in East Africa predicted to be the last requiring MDA globally. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our empirical estimate is similar to those resulting from previous susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and mathematical models, suggesting that the forecast achievement of TF1-9 elimination is realistic with the caveat that although disease elimination progress can be predicted for most IUs, there is an important minority of IUs that is not declining or has not yet started trachoma elimination activities. These IUs represent an important barrier to the timely global elimination of active trachoma.

Global progress toward the elimination of active trachoma: an analysis of 38 countries.

BACKGROUND: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem was targeted for 2020. We reviewed progress towards the elimination of active trachoma by country and geographical group. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of national survey and implementation data, all countries ever known to be endemic for trachoma that had either implemented at least one trachoma impact survey shown in the publicly available Trachoma Atlas, or are in Africa were invited to participate in this study. Scale-up was described according to the number of known endemic implementation units and mass drug administration implementation over time. The prevalence of active trachoma-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) from baseline, impact, and surveillance surveys was categorised and used to show programme progress towards reaching the elimination threshold (TF1-9 <5%) using dot maps, spaghetti plots, and boxplots. FINDINGS: We included data until Nov 10, 2021, for 38 countries, representing 2097 ever-endemic implementation units. Of these, 1923 (91·7%) have had mass drug administration. Of 1731 implementation units with a trachoma impact survey, the prevalence of TF1-9 had reduced by at least 50% in 1465 (84·6%) implementation units and 1182 (56·4%) of 2097 ever-endemic implementation units had reached the elimination threshold. 2 years after reaching a TF1-9 prevalence below 5%, most implementation units sustained this target; however, 58 (56·3%) of 103 implementation units in Ethiopia showed recrudescence. INTERPRETATION: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2020 was not possible, but this finding masks the great progress achieved. Implementation units in high baseline categories and recrudescent TF1-9 might prolong the attainment of elimination of active trachoma. Elimination is delayed but, with an understanding of the patterns and timelines to reaching elimination targets and a commitment toward meeting future targets, global elimination can still be achieved by 2030. FUNDING: None.

Changes in Exposure to Neighborhood Characteristics are Associated with Sexual Network Characteristics in a Cohort of Adults Relocating from Public Housing.

Ecologic and cross-sectional multilevel analyses suggest that characteristics of the places where people live influence their vulnerability to HIV and other sexually-transmitted infections (STIs). Using data from a predominately substance-misusing cohort of African-American adults relocating from US public housing complexes, this multilevel longitudinal study tested the hypothesis that participants who experienced greater post-relocation improvements in economic disadvantage, violent crime, and male:female sex ratios would experience greater reductions in perceived partner risk and in the odds of having a partner who had another partner (i.e., indirect concurrency). Baseline data were collected from 172 public housing residents before relocations occurred; three waves of post-relocation data were collected every 9 months. Participants who experienced greater improvements in community violence and in economic conditions experienced greater reductions in partner risk. Reduced community violence was associated with reduced indirect concurrency. Structural interventions that decrease exposure to violence and economic disadvantage may reduce vulnerability to HIV/STIs.