Assessing whether universal coverage with insecticide-treated nets has been achieved: is the right indicator being used?

BACKGROUND/METHODS: Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the primary tool for malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa, and have been responsible for an estimated two-thirds of the reduction in the global burden of malaria in recent years. While the ultimate goal is high levels of ITN use to confer protection against infected mosquitoes, it is widely accepted that ITN use must be understood in the context of ITN availability. However, despite nearly a decade of universal coverage campaigns, no country has achieved a measured level of 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people in a national survey. Eighty-six public datasets from 33 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (2005-2017) were used to explore the causes of failure to achieve universal coverage at the household level, understand the relationships between the various ITN indicators, and further define their respective programmatic utility. RESULTS: The proportion of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people did not exceed 60% at the national level in any survey, except in Uganda's 2014 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). At 80% population ITN access, the expected proportion of households with 1 ITN for 2 people is only 60% (p = 0.003 R2 = 0.92), because individuals in households with some but not enough ITNs are captured as having access, but the household does not qualify as having 1 ITN for 2 people. Among households with 7-9 people, mean population ITN access was 41.0% (95% CI 36.5-45.6), whereas only 6.2% (95% CI 4.0-8.3) of these same households owned at least 1 ITN for 2 people. On average, 60% of the individual protection measured by the population access indicator is obscured when focus is put on the household "universal coverage" indicator. The practice of limiting households to a maximum number of ITNs in mass campaigns severely restricts the ability of large households to obtain enough ITNs for their entire family. CONCLUSIONS: The two household-level indicators-one representing minimal coverage, the other only 'universal' coverage-provide an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of personal protection and the success of an ITN distribution programme. Under current ITN distribution strategies, the global malaria community cannot expect countries to reach 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people at a national level. When programmes assess the success of ITN distribution activities, population access to ITNs should be considered as the better indicator of "universal coverage," because it is based on people as the unit of analysis.

Implementation of the global plan for insecticide resistance management in malaria vectors: progress, challenges and the way forward.

In recent years, there has been an increase in resistance of malaria vectors to insecticides, particularly to pyrethroids which are widely used in insecticide-treated nets. The Global Plan for Insecticide Resistance Management in malaria vectors (GPIRM), released in May 2012, is a collective strategy for the malaria community to tackle this challenge. This review outlines progress made to date and the challenges experienced in the implementation of GPIRM, and outlines focus areas requiring urgent attention. Whilst there has been some advancement, uptake of GPIRM at the national level has generally been poor for various reasons, including limited availability of vector control tools with new mechanisms of action as well as critical financial, human and infrastructural resource deficiencies. There is an urgent need for a global response plan to address these deficits and ensure the correct and efficient use of available tools in order to maintain the effectiveness of current vector control efforts whilst novel vector control tools are under development. Emphasis must be placed on enhancing national capacities (such as human and infrastructural resources) to enable efficient monitoring and management of insecticide resistance, and to support availability and accessibility of appropriate new vector control products. Lack of action by the global community to address the threat of insecticide resistance is unacceptable and deprives affected communities of their basic right of universal access to effective malaria prevention. Aligning efforts and assigning the needed resources will ensure the optimal implementation of GPIRM with the ultimate goal of maintaining effective malaria vector control.

Sustaining fragile gains: the need to maintain coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets for malaria control and likely implications of not doing so.

Global commitment to malaria control has greatly increased over the last decade. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have become a core intervention of national malaria control strategies and over 450 million nets were distributed in sub-Saharan Africa between 2008 and 2012. Despite the impressive gains made as a result of increased investment in to malaria control, such gains remain fragile. Existing funding commitments for LLINs in the pipeline to 2016 were collated for 40 sub-Saharan African countries. The population-based model NetCALC was used to estimate the potential LLIN coverage achievable with these commitments and identify remaining gaps, and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate likely consequences for mortality impact if these gaps remain unfilled. Overall, countries calculated a total need of 806 million LLINs for 2013-16. Current funding commitments meet just over half of this need, leaving approximately 374 million LLINs unfunded, most of which are needed to maintain coverage in 2015 and 2016. An estimated additional 938,500 child lives (uncertainty range: 559,400-1,364,200) could be saved from 2013 through 2016 with existing funding (relative to 2009 LLIN coverage taken as the 'baseline' for this analysis); if the funding gap were closed this would increase to 1,180,500 lives saved (uncertainty range: 707,000-1,718,900). Overall, the funding gap equates to approximately 242,000 avoidable malaria-attributable deaths amongst under-fives. Substantial additional resources will need to be mobilized to meet the full LLIN need of sub-Saharan countries to maintain universal coverage. Unless these resources are mobilized, the impressive gains made to date will not be sustained and tens of thousands of avoidable child deaths will occur.

Communication strategy for implementing community IMCI.

In resource-poor developing countries, significant improvements in child survival, growth, and development can be made by: (a) shifting from sectoral programmes (for example, in nutrition or immunization) to holistic strategies such as the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) and (b) improving household and community care and health-seeking practices as a priority, while concurrently strengthening health systems and the skills of health professionals. This article focuses on household and community learning, and proposes a communication strategy for implementing community IMCI (c-IMCI) that is based on human rights principles such as inclusion, participation, and self-determination. Rather than attempt to change the care practices and health-seeking behaviour of individuals through the design and delivery of messages alone, it proposes an approach that is based on community engagement and discussion to create the social conditions in which individual change is possible. The strategy advocates for the integration of sectoral programmes rather than the development of new holistic programmes, so that integrated programmes are created from "multiple entry points". As integration occurs, the participatory communication processes that are used in sectoral programmes can be enriched and combined, improving the capacity of governments and agencies to engage community members effectively in a process of learning and action related to child health and development.

Performance of forecasting, warning and detection of malaria epidemics in the highlands of western Kenya.

On the 4th July 2002 a leading national newspaper in Kenya, the Daily Nation, ran the headline 'Minister sounds alert on malaria' in an article declaring the onset of epidemics in the highlands of western Kenya. There followed frequent media coverage with quotes from district leaders on the numbers of deaths, and editorials on the failure of the national malaria control strategy. The Ministry of Health made immediate and radical changes to national policy on treatment costs in the highlands by suspending cost-sharing. Development partners and non-governmental organisations also responded with a large increase in the distribution of commodities (approximately 500,000 US dollars) to support preventative strategies across the western highland region. What was conspicuous by its absence was any obvious effort to predict the epidemics in advance of press coverage.

Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study.

Our aim was to assess whether a combination of seasonal climate forecasts, monitoring of meteorological conditions, and early detection of cases could have helped to prevent the 2002 malaria emergency in the highlands of western Kenya. Seasonal climate forecasts did not anticipate the heavy rainfall. Rainfall data gave timely and reliable early warnings; but monthly surveillance of malaria out-patients gave no effective alarm, though it did help to confirm that normal rainfall conditions in Kisii Central and Gucha led to typical resurgent outbreaks whereas exceptional rainfall in Nandi and Kericho led to true malaria epidemics. Management of malaria in the highlands, including improved planning for the annual resurgent outbreak, augmented by simple central nationwide early warning, represents a feasible strategy for increasing epidemic preparedness in Kenya.