Nottingham prognostic x (NPx): a risk stratification tool in ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancer: a validation study.

AIMS: In this study, we validate the use of Nottingham Prognostic x (NPx), consisting of tumour size, tumour grade, progesterone receptor (PR) and Ki67 in luminal BC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two large cohorts of luminal early-stage BC (n = 2864) were included. PR and Ki67 expression were assessed using full-face resection samples using immunohistochemistry. NPx was calculated and correlated with clinical variables and outcome, together with Oncotype DX recurrence score (RS), that is frequently used as a risk stratifier in luminal BC. RESULTS: In the whole cohort, 38% of patients were classified as high risk using NPx which showed significant association with parameters characteristics of aggressive tumour behaviour and shorter survival (P < 0.0001). NPx classified the moderate Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) risk group (n = 1812) into two distinct prognostic subgroups. Of the 82% low-risk group, only 3.8% developed events. Contrasting this, 14% of the high-risk patients developed events during follow-up. A strong association was observed between NPx and Oncotype Dx RS (P < 0.0001), where 66% of patients with intermediate risk RS who had subsequent distant metastases also had a high-risk NPx. CONCLUSION: NPx is a reliable prognostic index in patients with luminal early-stage BC, and in selected patients may be used to guide adjuvant chemotherapy recommendations.

The Ki67 dilemma: investigating prognostic cut-offs and reproducibility for automated Ki67 scoring in breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Quantification of Ki67 in breast cancer is a well-established prognostic and predictive marker, but inter-laboratory variability has hampered its clinical usefulness. This study compares the prognostic value and reproducibility of Ki67 scoring using four automated, digital image analysis (DIA) methods and two manual methods. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 367 patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2004, with hormone receptor positive, HER2 negative, lymph node negative breast cancer. Manual scoring of Ki67 was performed using predefined criteria. DIA Ki67 scoring was performed using QuPath and Visiopharm® platforms. Reproducibility was assessed by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). ROC curve survival analysis identified optimal cutoff values in addition to recommendations by the International Ki67 Working Group and Norwegian Guidelines. Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank test and Cox regression analysis assessed the association between Ki67 scoring and distant metastasis (DM) free survival. RESULTS: The manual hotspot and global scoring methods showed good agreement when compared to their counterpart DIA methods (ICC > 0.780), and good to excellent agreement between different DIA hotspot scoring platforms (ICC 0.781-0.906). Different Ki67 cutoffs demonstrate significant DM-free survival (p < 0.05). DIA scoring had greater prognostic value for DM-free survival using a 14% cutoff (HR 3.054-4.077) than manual scoring (HR 2.012-2.056). The use of a single cutoff for all scoring methods affected the distribution of prediction outcomes (e.g. false positives and negatives). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that DIA scoring of Ki67 is superior to manual methods, but further study is required to standardize automated, DIA scoring and definition of a clinical cut-off.

Proliferation and immunohistochemistry for p53, CD25 and CK20 in predicting prognosis of non-muscle invasive papillary urothelial carcinomas.

Non-muscle invasive papillary urothelial carcinoma is a prevalent disease with a high recurrence tendency. Good prognostic and reproducible biomarkers for tumor recurrence and disease progression are lacking. Currently, WHO grade and tumor stage are essential in risk stratification and treatment decision-making. Here we present the prognostic value of proliferation markers (Ki67, mitotic activity index (MAI) and PPH3) together with p53, CD25 and CK20 immunohistochemistry (IHC). In this population-based retrospective study, 349 primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancers (NMIBC) were available. MAI and PPH3 were calculated manually according to highly standardized previously described methods, Ki-67 by the semi-automated QPRODIT quantification system, p53 and CD25 by the fully automated digital image analysis program Visipharm® and CK20 with the help of the semi-quantitative immunoreactive score (IRS). Survival analyses with log rank test, as well as univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed for all investigated variables. Age and multifocality were the only significant variables for tumor recurrence. All investigated variables, except gender, were significantly associated with stage progression. In multivariate analysis, MAI was the only prognostic variable for stage progression (p<0.001).

Automated Prognostic Assessment of Endometrial Hyperplasia for Progression Risk Evaluation Using Artificial Intelligence.

Endometrial hyperplasia is a precursor to endometrial cancer, characterized by excessive proliferation of glands that is distinguishable from normal endometrium. Current classifications define 2 types of EH, each with a different risk of progression to endometrial cancer. However, these schemes are based on visual assessments and, therefore, subjective, possibly leading to overtreatment or undertreatment. In this study, we developed an automated artificial intelligence tool (ENDOAPP) for the measurement of morphologic and cytologic features of endometrial tissue using the software Visiopharm. The ENDOAPP was used to extract features from whole-slide images of PAN-CK+-stained formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue sections from 388 patients diagnosed with endometrial hyperplasia between 1980 and 2007. Follow-up data were available for all patients (mean = 140 months). The most prognostic features were identified by a logistic regression model and used to assign a low-risk or high-risk progression score. Performance of the ENDOAPP was assessed for the following variables: images from 2 different scanners (Hamamatsu XR and S60) and automated placement of a region of interest versus manual placement by an operator. Then, the performance of the application was compared with that of current classification schemes: WHO94, WHO20, and EIN, and the computerized-morphometric risk classification method: D-score. The most significant prognosticators were percentage stroma and the standard deviation of the lesser diameter of epithelial nuclei. The ENDOAPP had an acceptable discriminative power with an area under the curve of 0.765. Furthermore, strong to moderate agreement was observed between manual operators (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.828) and scanners (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.791). Comparison of the prognostic capability of each classification scheme revealed that the ENDOAPP had the highest accuracy of 88%-91% alongside the D-score method (91%). The other classification schemes had an accuracy between 83% and 87%. This study demonstrated the use of computer-aided prognosis to classify progression risk in EH for improved patient treatment.

Validation study of MARCKSL1 as a prognostic factor in lymph node-negative breast cancer patients.

Protein expression of Myristoylated alanine-rich C kinase substrate like-1 (MARCKSL1) has been identified as a prognostic factor in lymph-node negative (LN-) breast cancer patients. We aim to validate MARCKSL1 protein expression as a prognostic marker for distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in a new cohort of LN- breast cancer patients. MARCKSL1 expression was evaluated in 151 operable T1,2N0M0 LN- breast cancer patients by immunohistochemistry. Median follow-up time was 152 months, range 11-189 months. Results were compared with classical prognosticators (age, tumor diameter, grade, estrogen receptor, and proliferation) using single (Kaplan-Meier) and multivariate (Cox model) survival analysis. Thirteen patients (9%) developed distant metastases. With both single and multiple analysis of all features, MARCKSL1 did not show a significant prognostic value for DMFS (p = 0.498). Of the assessed classical prognosticators, only tumor diameter showed prognostic value (hazard ratio 9.3, 95% confidence interval 2.8-31.0, p <0.001). MARCKSL1 expression could not be confirmed as a prognostic factor in this cohort. Possible reasons include changes in diagnostic and treatment guidelines between the discovery and validation cohorts. Further studies are needed to reveal the potential biological role of this protein in breast cancer.

Assessing the prognostic value of PAX2 and PTEN in endometrial carcinogenesis.

In order to avoid the consequences of over- and under-treatment of endometrial hyperplasia, diagnostic accuracy and progression risk assessment must be improved. The aim of this study was to assess whether PAX2 or PTEN expression could predict progression-free survival in endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia (EIN) and endometrial endometrioid carcinoma (EEC). Immunohistochemistry for detection of PAX2 and PTEN was performed on 348 endometrial samples; 75 proliferative endometrium (PE), 36 EIN and 237 EEC. Cases classified as PTEN null (1 or more glands negatively stained) were more prevalent in EEC than in PE and EIN (64% EEC vs 11% PE/EIN). A progressive decrease in PAX2 expression was observed from PE to EIN to EEC. Long-term clinical follow-up (6-310 months, median: 126) was available for 62 PE cases, all 36 EIN cases and 178 EEC cases. No patients with PE demonstrated progression to EIN or EEC. Progression of disease was observed in 10 (28%) EIN patients. These patients had significantly lower PAX2 expression than those that regressed (P = 0.005). Progression-free survival analysis revealed that EIN patients with a high-risk PAX2 expression score (H-score ≤75) had a higher probability of progression of disease in comparison to those with a low-risk score (H-score >75). PAX2 expression was not prognostic in EEC nor was PTEN status of prognostic value in either EIN or EEC. PAX2 expression analysis by means of H-score has prognostic potential for the identification of high-risk progression cases in EIN but needs to be validated in a larger cohort.

Elevated microsatellite alterations at selected tetranucleotides in early-stage colorectal cancers with and without high-frequency microsatellite instability: same, same but different?

Microsatellite instability (MSI) is associated with better prognosis in colorectal cancer (CRC). Elevated microsatellite alterations at selected tetranucleotides (EMAST) is a less-understood form of MSI. Here, we aim to investigate the role of EMAST in CRC±MSI related to clinical and tumor-specific characteristics. A consecutive, population-based series of stage I-III colorectal cancers were investigated for MSI and EMAST using PCR primers for 10 microsatellite markers. Of 151 patients included, 33 (21.8%) had MSI and 35 (23.2%) were EMAST+, with an overlap of 77% for positivity, (odds ratio [OR] 61; P < 0.001), and 95% for both markers being negative. EMAST was more prevalent in colon versus rectum (86% vs. 14%, P = 0.004). EMAST+ cancers were significantly more frequent in proximal colon (77 vs. 23%, P = 0.004), had advanced t-stage (T3-4 vs. T1-2 in 94% vs. 6%, respectively; P = 0.008), were larger (≥5 cm vs. <5 cm in 63% and 37%, respectively; P = 0.022) and had poorly differentiated tumor grade (71 vs. 29%, P < 0.01). Furthermore, EMAST+ tumors had a higher median number of harvested lymph nodes than EMAST- (11 vs. 9 nodes; P = 0.03). No significant association was found between EMAST status and age, gender, presence of distant metastases or metastatic lymph nodes, and overall survival. A nonsignificant difference toward worse survival in node-negative colon cancers needs confirmation in larger cohorts. EMAST+ cancers overlap and share features with MSI+ in CRC. Overall, survival was not influenced by the presence of EMAST, but may be of importance in subgroups such as node-negative disease of the colon.