The projected economic burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil by 2030.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of overweight increases the risk of several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and, consequently, the costs of health care systems. In this study, we aimed to project the economic burden of NCDs attributable to overweight in Brazil between 2021 and 2030. METHODS: A cohort simulation of adults (17-117 years) using multistate lifetable modeling was used to estimate the costs of NCDs attributable to overweight in Brazil. The projections of direct health care costs (outpatient and inpatient expenses in the Unified Health System) and indirect costs (years of productive life lost) considered different trajectories of the prevalence of overweight between 2021 and 2030. RESULTS: In 2019, the prevalence of overweight was 55.4% in the adult Brazilian population. We estimate that around 1.8 billion international dollars (Int$) would be spent on the direct health care cost of NCDs between 2021 and 2030, through the continued increase in overweight prevalence observed between 2006 and 2020. The indirect costs over the same time would be approximately 20.1 billion Int$. We estimate that halving the annual increase in body mass index slope from the beginning of 2021 until 2030 would save 20.2 million Int$ direct and indirect costs by 2030. In the scenario of keeping the prevalence of overweight observed in 2019 constant until 2030, the savings would be 40.8 million Int$. Finally, in the scenario of a 6.7% reduction in the prevalence of overweight observed in 2019 (to be achieved gradually until 2030), 74.1 million Int$ would be saved. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the high economic burden of overweight in the Brazilian adult population.

Preventable incidence cases from non-communicable diseases attributable to insufficient physical activity in Chile.

OBJECTIVES: Lack of sufficient physical activity (PA) has been associated with an increased risk of several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and all-cause mortality. This study aimed to estimate the number of preventable incidence cases of NCDs attributable to insufficient PA in the Chilean population. STUDY DESIGN: Comparative risk assessment modelling study. METHODS: This study examined data from 5834 participants aged ≥20 years from the Chilean National Survey (2016-2017). PA was assessed by the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ), and metabolic equivalent of tasks (METs) were assigned according to PA intensity. Estimated incidence cases of NCDs in Chile in 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. Relative risks for breast cancer, colon cancer, ischaemic heart disease, diabetes and stroke were obtained from a published meta-analysis and applied to the prevalence of insufficient PA estimates through the potential impact fraction equation. RESULTS: High levels of PA (≥8000 MET-min/week) could potentially avoid more than 22,000 (64.6 %) incidence NCD cases, ranging from 498 (10.1 %) preventable cases of breast cancer to 5629 (14.7 %) cases of diabetes. Other modelled scenarios also showed to reduce the incidence cases of all five NCDs but to a lesser extent; where at least PA recommendation was achieved, preventable NCDs were reduced by 6522 cases (18.7 %), and where a 10 % relative reduction in insufficient PA level in the population was achieved, preventable NCDs were reduced by 651 (1.8 %) cases. CONCLUSIONS: The study results provide estimates for the incidence cases of preventable NCDs attributable to insufficient PA, highlighting the important role of PA in NCD prevention in Chile.

Temporal trends in sleep pattern among Chinese adults between 2010 and 2018: findings from five consecutive nationally representative surveys.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the time trends in average sleep duration and prevalence of short sleep, poor sleep quality, and high sleep debt among Chinese adults. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study. METHODS: The study used nationally representative data from Chinese Family Panel Survey (CFPS) among adults aged ≥18 years. Linear regression and logistic regression were used to calculate P-values for trends across waves, and absolute difference in prevalences were calculated by linear regression. Poisson regression analysis was used to calculate the prevalence ratios of sleep-related problems. RESULTS: In 2018, the estimated average sleep duration in adults was 7.6 h/d. A shorter sleep duration, higher proportion of short sleep, and poor sleep quality were observed in people aged ≥65 years, women, people with primary school education or below, and residents in Liaoning province. The average sleep duration slightly decreased from 8.2 h/d in 2010 to 7.6 h/d in 2016, and then remained stable from 2016 to 2018. The prevalence of short sleep duration has markedly increased from 11.8% in 2010 to 24.1% in 2016, and then there was a decline in prevalence from 2016 to 2018, although this decrease was not significant. The prevalence of high sleep debt among employed people increased from 6.2% in 2010 to 8.6% in 2018 (absolute difference, 2.4 p.p; P trend = 0.063). In addition, the prevalence of poor sleep quality increased from 15.6% in 2012 to 21.3% in 2018 (absolute difference of 5.7 p.p; P trend<0.001). For all the sleep-related variables, the degree of changes varied by sociodemographic subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationally representative survey of the Chinese population, the average sleep duration slightly decreased from 2010 to 2016, and then remained stable from 2016 to 2018. Poor sleep quality, and high sleep debt increased among most of the sociodemographic subgroups. Future studies are needed to understand the drivers of changes in sleep health among Chinese adults.

The economic burden of overweight and obesity in Brazil: perspectives for the Brazilian Unified Health System.

OBJECTIVES: Parallel to rising obesity prevalence in Brazil, there is expected to be increased direct health care costs related to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In this study, we estimated the economic burden of NCDs attributable to overweight and obesity in the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS). METHODS: We used self-reported body mass index of 85,715 adults from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey. Annual costs (1 US$ = 2.281 Reais) with inpatient and outpatient procedures were obtained from the Hospital and Ambulatory Information Systems of the Brazilian SUS. Relative risks for cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, neoplasm, digestive disease, musculoskeletal disorders, diabetes and kidney diseases, sense organ diseases, and neurological disorders were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease study. RESULTS: Annually, US$ 654 million (95% uncertainty interval: US$ 418.4 to US$ 893.2) direct health care costs related to NCDs were attributable to overweight and obesity. Attributable costs were higher in women than men. Cardiovascular diseases had the highest attributable costs (US$ 289 million), followed by chronic respiratory diseases (US$ 110 million), neoplasms (US$ 96 million), digestive diseases (US$ 60 million), musculoskeletal disorders (US$ 44 million), diabetes and kidney disease (US$ 31 million), sense organ diseases (US$ 22 million) and neurological disorders (US$ 11 million). CONCLUSIONS: Overweight and obesity account for US$ 654 million direct costs of NCDs annually. Effective policies to promote healthy body weight may have economic benefits.