Evaluation of future estuarine floods in a sea level rise context.

Reliable predictions of future inundation extent within estuaries require a precise evaluation of future extreme sea levels and the application of accurate numerical models that account for the physical processes driving estuarine hydrodynamics. In this study, a methodology that integrates the estimation of local extreme sea levels with high-resolution numerical modeling was applied to assess the future inundation extent in five estuarine systems located on the Portuguese Coast. The main findings obtained were compared with available results from the popular bathtub approach, that disregards the physical processes driving estuarine hydrodynamics and therefore provide imprecise predictions of inundation extent and associated socio-economic impacts. The inundation extent is revealed to be highly dependent on the extreme sea levels and on the estuarine geomorphology, which controls the propagating long-wave. As the long-wave height is highly attenuated within estuaries that have adjacent low-lying areas, restricted inlets, or extensive tidal flats, the results of this study revealed that the extent of inundation is considerably smaller than that obtained by the bathtub approach. The uncertainties associated with mean sea level rise and the estuarine geomorphological evolution constitute the greatest difficulty in assessing the extent of flooding, posing major challenges to the efficient and sustainable management of estuaries.

Economic Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Farms Considering Near Future Wind Resources: Case Study of Iberian Coast and Bay of Biscay.

Wind energy resources are subject to changes in climate, so the use of wind energy density projections in the near future is essential to determine the viability and profitability of wind farms at particular locations. Thus, a step forward in determining the economic assessment of floating offshore wind farms was taken by considering current and near-future wind energy resources in assessing the main parameters that determine the economic viability (net present value, internal rate of return, and levelized cost of energy) of wind farms. This study was carried out along the Atlantic coast from Brest to Cape St. Vincent. Results show that the future reduction in wind energy density (2%-6%) mainly affects the net present value (NPV) of the farm and has little influence on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This study provides a good estimate of the economic viability of OWFs (Offshore Wind Farms) by taking into account how wind resources can vary due to climate change over the lifetime of the farm.

Modelling the distribution of microplastics released by wastewater treatment plants in Ria de Vigo (NW Iberian Peninsula).

The accumulation of plastic waste in estuaries is growing due to the increase in their use in daily life and their inadequate treatment on wastewater plants (WWTPs). Hydrodynamic and particle-tracking models were validated and used to improve the knowledge about the distribution and concentration of microplastics released by WWTPs in the Ria de Vigo. Results showed that the Vigo WWTP is the main driver of microplastics to the Ria de Vigo. Besides, 21% of the released microplastics reach the adjacent ocean, 24% remain anchored around the Cies Islands, and a negligible percentage reaches the upper estuary when the emission occurs under ebb on spring tide conditions. A negligible number of released microplastics is exported to the nearby ocean when the emission occurs under neap tide conditions. This research can provide a useful tool to support the identification of monitoring processes and debris removal.

NW Iberian Peninsula coastal upwelling future weakening: Competition between wind intensification and surface heating.

Climate change will modify the oceanographic future properties of the NW Iberian Peninsula due to the projected variations in the meteorological forcing, that will intensify local winds and promote surface heating. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with atmospheric conditions provided within the framework of the CORDEX project under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenario was used to analyse changes in upwelling. Numerical experiments were conducted under high-extreme upwelling conditions for the historical (1976-2005) and future (2070-2099) period. This study also innovates through the exploitation of a numerical modelling approach that includes both shelf and estuarine processes along the coastal zone. Coastal upwelling will be less effective in the future despite the enhancement of upwelling favorable wind patterns previously predicted for this region. Upwelling weakening is due to the future sea surface warming that will increase the stratification of the upper layers hindering the upward displacement of the underlying water, reducing the surface input of nutrients.