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2.
Ann N Y Acad Sci ; 1146: 32-49, 2008 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19076410

ABSTRACT

The quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the equatorial stratosphere and also affects the circulation and temperature of the extratropical region. In this paper we review previous work showing that the mid- to high-latitude circulation is weaker (stronger) when QBO easterlies (westerlies) dominate in the low equatorial stratosphere. The accepted explanation for the extratropical QBO signature is based on the QBO modulation of upward propagating planetary Rossby waves. This mechanism is consistent with the strong seasonality observed in the extratropical QBO. The largest QBO signature in the northern extratropical stratosphere occurs during winter when the dominating westerly wind allows the penetration of planetary waves in the northern stratosphere. However, during the southern winter, planetary waves do not disrupt the southern stratospheric vortex and the largest QBO signature is found during the late spring (November). To further illustrate these mechanisms, we analyze the QBO signature on the mid- to high-latitude circulation of the stratosphere using data from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The extratropical signature in both hemispheres is evaluated as a function of the latitude-height structure of the zonal wind in the tropical region in order to determine how the extratropical response depends on the vertical phase structure of the tropical QBO. We also analyze the QBO impact on planetary wave activity in order to determine how this modulation can explain the observed extratropical QBO signal.

3.
Int Arch Occup Environ Health ; 72(6): 366-76, 1999 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10473836

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of the association between air pollution and mortality and morbidity is becoming ever more complex owing to changes in inner-city air pollution, marked by decreasing values for all main pollutants save those associated with traffic. This has led to the need for the study of new epidemiological scenarios in which most pollutants are below guideline values. Nonetheless, the health effects are significant. METHODS: This report presents the results of a statistically based model for real-time forecasting of mortality and morbidity in Madrid, with meteorological and pollution series serving as inputs. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Not only did the models perform well with correlation coefficients between predicted and observed values (r = 0.683 for mortality, r = 0.681 for morbidity), but they enabled quantification of the impact of air pollution on mortality and morbidity (with increases ranging from 1. 8% to 12% for mortality and from 2.3% to 18% for morbidity for a 25-microg/m(3) increase in pollutants). Moreover, attention should be drawn to the observation that the model proved to be easy to implement and operate on a routine basis.


Subject(s)
Air Pollution/adverse effects , Environmental Exposure/adverse effects , Morbidity , Mortality , Population Surveillance/methods , Emergencies/epidemiology , Environmental Exposure/analysis , Forecasting , Humans , Models, Statistical , Multivariate Analysis , Seasons , Spain/epidemiology
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