Personalized coronary and myocardial blood flow models incorporating CT perfusion imaging and synthetic vascular trees.

Computational simulations of coronary artery blood flow, using anatomical models based on clinical imaging, are an emerging non-invasive tool for personalized treatment planning. However, current simulations contend with two related challenges - incomplete anatomies in image-based models due to the exclusion of arteries smaller than the imaging resolution, and the lack of personalized flow distributions informed by patient-specific imaging. We introduce a data-enabled, personalized and multi-scale flow simulation framework spanning large coronary arteries to myocardial microvasculature. It includes image-based coronary anatomies combined with synthetic vasculature for arteries below the imaging resolution, myocardial blood flow simulated using Darcy models, and systemic circulation represented as lumped-parameter networks. We propose an optimization-based method to personalize multiscale coronary flow simulations by assimilating clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging and cardiac function measurements to yield patient-specific flow distributions and model parameters. Using this proof-of-concept study on a cohort of six patients, we reveal substantial differences in flow distributions and clinical diagnosis metrics between the proposed personalized framework and empirical methods based purely on anatomy; these errors cannot be predicted a priori. This suggests virtual treatment planning tools would benefit from increased personalization informed by emerging imaging methods.

A probabilistic neural twin for treatment planning in peripheral pulmonary artery stenosis.

The substantial computational cost of high-fidelity models in numerical hemodynamics has, so far, relegated their use mainly to offline treatment planning. New breakthroughs in data-driven architectures and optimization techniques for fast surrogate modeling provide an exciting opportunity to overcome these limitations, enabling the use of such technology for time-critical decisions. We discuss an application to the repair of multiple stenosis in peripheral pulmonary artery disease through either transcatheter pulmonary artery rehabilitation or surgery, where it is of interest to achieve desired pressures and flows at specific locations in the pulmonary artery tree, while minimizing the risk for the patient. Since different degrees of success can be achieved in practice during treatment, we formulate the problem in probability, and solve it through a sample-based approach. We propose a new offline-online pipeline for probabilistic real-time treatment planning which combines offline assimilation of boundary conditions, model reduction, and training dataset generation with online estimation of marginal probabilities, possibly conditioned on the degree of augmentation observed in already repaired lesions. Moreover, we propose a new approach for the parametrization of arbitrarily shaped vascular repairs through iterative corrections of a zero-dimensional approximant. We demonstrate this pipeline for a diseased model of the pulmonary artery tree available through the Vascular Model Repository.

Personalized coronary and myocardial blood flow models incorporating CT perfusion imaging and synthetic vascular trees.

Computational simulations of coronary artery blood flow, using anatomical models based on clinical imaging, are an emerging non-invasive tool for personalized treatment planning. However, current simulations contend with two related challenges - incomplete anatomies in image-based models due to the exclusion of arteries smaller than the imaging resolution, and the lack of personalized flow distributions informed by patient-specific imaging. We introduce a data-enabled, personalized and multi-scale flow simulation framework spanning large coronary arteries to myocardial microvasculature. It includes image-based coronary models combined with synthetic vasculature for arteries below the imaging resolution, myocardial blood flow simulated using Darcy models, and systemic circulation represented as lumped-parameter networks. Personalized flow distributions and model parameters are informed by clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging and cardiac function using surrogate-based optimization. We reveal substantial differences in flow distributions and clinical diagnosis metrics between the proposed personalized framework and empirical methods based on anatomy; these errors cannot be predicted a priori. This suggests virtual treatment planning tools would benefit from increased personalization informed by emerging imaging methods.

Improving adaptive seamless designs through Bayesian optimization.

We propose to use Bayesian optimization (BO) to improve the efficiency of the design selection process in clinical trials. BO is a method to optimize expensive black-box functions, by using a regression as a surrogate to guide the search. In clinical trials, planning test procedures and sample sizes is a crucial task. A common goal is to maximize the test power, given a set of treatments, corresponding effect sizes, and a total number of samples. From a wide range of possible designs, we aim to select the best one in a short time to allow quick decisions. The standard approach to simulate the power for each single design can become too time consuming. When the number of possible designs becomes very large, either large computational resources are required or an exhaustive exploration of all possible designs takes too long. Here, we propose to use BO to quickly find a clinical trial design with high power from a large number of candidate designs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by optimizing the power of adaptive seamless designs for different sets of treatment effect sizes. Comparing BO with an exhaustive evaluation of all candidate designs shows that BO finds competitive designs in a fraction of the time.

Model-based optimization of subgroup weights for survival analysis.

MOTIVATION: To obtain a reliable prediction model for a specific cancer subgroup or cohort is often difficult due to limited sample size and, in survival analysis, due to potentially high censoring rates. Sometimes similar data from other patient subgroups are available, e.g. from other clinical centers. Simple pooling of all subgroups can decrease the variance of the predicted parameters of the prediction models, but also increase the bias due to heterogeneity between the cohorts. A promising compromise is to identify those subgroups with a similar relationship between covariates and target variable and then include only these for model building. RESULTS: We propose a subgroup-based weighted likelihood approach for survival prediction with high-dimensional genetic covariates. When predicting survival for a specific subgroup, for every other subgroup an individual weight determines the strength with which its observations enter into model building. MBO (model-based optimization) can be used to quickly find a good prediction model in the presence of a large number of hyperparameters. We use MBO to identify the best model for survival prediction of a specific subgroup by optimizing the weights for additional subgroups for a Cox model. The approach is evaluated on a set of lung cancer cohorts with gene expression measurements. The resulting models have competitive prediction quality, and they reflect the similarity of the corresponding cancer subgroups, with both weights close to 0 and close to 1 and medium weights. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: mlrMBO is implemented as an R-package and is freely available at http://github.com/mlr-org/mlrMBO.