Real-Time Suicide Surveillance: Comparison of International Surveillance Systems and Recommended Best Practice.

OBJECTIVE: Some countries have implemented systems to monitor suicides in real-time. These systems differ because of the various ways in which suicides are identified and recorded. The main objective of this study was to conduct an international comparison of major real-time suicide mortality surveillance systems to identify joint strengths, challenges, and differences, and thereby inform best-practice criteria at local, national, and international levels. METHODS: Five major real-time suicide mortality surveillance systems of various coverage levels were identified and selected for review via an internet-based scoping exercise and prior knowledge of existing systems. Key information including the system components and practices was collated from those organizations that developed and operate each system using a structured template. The information was narratively and critically synthesized to determine similarities and differences between the systems. RESULTS: The comparative review of the five established real-time suicide surveillance systems revealed more commonalities than differences overall. Commonalities included rapid, routine surveillance based on minimal, provisional data to facilitate timely intervention and postvention efforts. Identified differences include the timeliness of case submission and system infrastructure. CONCLUSION: The recommended criteria could promote replicable components and practices in real-time suicide surveillance while offering flexibility in adapting to regional/local circumstances and resource availability.HIGHLIGHTSEvidence-informed recommendations for current best practice in real-time suicide surveillance.Proposed comprehensive framework can be adapted based on available resources and capacity.Real-time suicide mortality data facilitates rapid data-driven decision-making in suicide prevention.

The development and validation of a dashboard prototype for real-time suicide mortality data.

Introduction/Aim: Data visualisation is key to informing data-driven decision-making, yet this is an underexplored area of suicide surveillance. By way of enhancing a real-time suicide surveillance system model, an interactive dashboard prototype has been developed to facilitate emerging cluster detection, risk profiling and trend observation, as well as to establish a formal data sharing connection with key stakeholders via an intuitive interface. Materials and Methods: Individual-level demographic and circumstantial data on cases of confirmed suicide and open verdicts meeting the criteria for suicide in County Cork 2008-2017 were analysed to validate the model. The retrospective and prospective space-time scan statistics based on a discrete Poisson model were employed via the R software environment using the "rsatscan" and "shiny" packages to conduct the space-time cluster analysis and deliver the mapping and graphic components encompassing the dashboard interface. Results: Using the best-fit parameters, the retrospective scan statistic returned several emerging non-significant clusters detected during the 10-year period, while the prospective approach demonstrated the predictive ability of the model. The outputs of the investigations are visually displayed using a geographical map of the identified clusters and a timeline of cluster occurrence. Discussion: The challenges of designing and implementing visualizations for suspected suicide data are presented through a discussion of the development of the dashboard prototype and the potential it holds for supporting real-time decision-making. Conclusions: The results demonstrate that integration of a cluster detection approach involving geo-visualisation techniques, space-time scan statistics and predictive modelling would facilitate prospective early detection of emerging clusters, at-risk populations, and locations of concern. The prototype demonstrates real-world applicability as a proactive monitoring tool for timely action in suicide prevention by facilitating informed planning and preparedness to respond to emerging suicide clusters and other concerning trends.

Workforce Planning Models for Oral Health Care: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: For health care services to address the health care needs of populations and respond to changes in needs over time, workforces must be planned. This requires quantitative models to estimate future workforce requirements that take account of population size, oral health needs, evidence-based approaches to addressing needs, and methods of service provision that maximize productivity. The aim of this scoping review was to assess whether and how these 4 elements contribute to existing models of oral health workforce planning. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted. MEDLINE, Embase, HMIC, and EconLit were searched, all via OVID. Additionally, gray literature databases were searched and key bodies and policy makers contacted. Workforce planning models were included if they projected workforce numbers and were specific to oral health. No limits were placed on country. A single reviewer completed initial screening of abstracts; 2 independent reviewers completed secondary screening and data extraction. A narrative synthesis was conducted. RESULTS: A total of 4,009 records were screened, resulting in 42 included articles detailing 47 models. The workforce planning models varied significantly in their use of data on oral health needs, evidence-based services, and provider productivity, with most models relying on observed levels of service utilization and demand. CONCLUSIONS: This review has identified quantitative workforce planning models that aim to estimate future workforce requirements. Approaches to planning the oral health workforce are not always based on deriving workforce requirements from population oral health needs. In many cases, requirements are not linked to population needs, while in models where needs are included, they are constrained by the existence and availability of the required data. It is critical that information systems be developed to effectively capture data necessary to plan future oral health care workforces in ways that relate directly to the needs of the populations being served. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT: Policy makers can use the results of this study when making decisions about the planning of oral health care workforces and about the data to routinely collect within health services. Collection of suitable data will allow for the continual improvement of workforce planning, leading to a responsive health service and likely future cost savings.

Mapped Predictions of Manganese and Arsenic in an Alluvial Aquifer Using Boosted Regression Trees.

Manganese (Mn) concentrations and the probability of arsenic (As) exceeding the drinking-water standard of 10 µg/L were predicted in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) using boosted regression trees (BRT). BRT, a type of ensemble-tree machine-learning model, were created using predictor variables that affect Mn and As distribution in groundwater. These variables included iron (Fe) concentrations and specific conductance predicted from previously developed BRT models, groundwater flux and age estimates from MODFLOW, and hydrologic characteristics. The models also included results from the first airborne geophysical survey conducted in the United States to target an entire aquifer system. Predictions of high Mn and As occurred where Fe was high. Predicted high Mn concentrations were correlated with fraction of young groundwater (less than 65 years) computed from MODFLOW results. High probabilities of As exceedance were predicted where groundwater was relatively old and airborne electromagnetic resistivity was high, typically proximal to streams. Two-variable partial-dependence plots and sensitivity analysis were used to provide insight into the factors controlling Mn and As distribution in groundwater. The maps of predicted Mn concentrations and As exceedance probabilities can be used to identify areas where these constituents may be high, and that could be targeted for further study. This paper shows that incorporation of a selected set of process-informed data, such as MODFLOW results and airborne geophysics, into a machine-learning model improves model interpretability. Incorporation of process-rich information into machine-learning models will likely be useful for addressing a wide range of problems of interest to groundwater hydrologists.

Real-time suicide surveillance supporting policy and practice.

Suicide mortality rates are a strong indicator of population mental-health and can be used to determine the efficacy of prevention measures. Monitoring suicide mortality rates in real-time provides an evidence-base to inform targeted interventions in a timely manner and accelerate suicide prevention responses. This paper outlines the importance of real-time suicide surveillance in the context of policy and practice, with a particular focus on public health and humanitarian crises.

People with obsessive-compulsive disorder often remain symptomatic following psychological treatment: A clinical significance analysis of manualised psychological interventions.

BACKGROUND: Previous meta-analyses conclude that efficacious psychological treatments for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) exist. However, determining the efficacy of psychological treatments requires multiple forms of assessment. We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of manualised psychological therapy for adults with OCD. METHODS: Four electronic databases were searched from their inception until July 2019. IPD were available for 24 (n = 1626) of 43 (n = 2455) eligible RCTs. Treatment efficacy was evaluated using clinical significance analyses (using standardised Jacobson methodology) and standardised mean difference within-group effect-size analyses. Outcomes were Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) scores at post-treatment and follow-up. RESULTS: At follow-up, large within-group effect sizes were found for treated patients (g = 1.45) and controls (g = 0.90). Treated patients were significantly more likely than controls to recover, but recovery rates were low; post-intervention, only 32% of treated patients and 3% of controls recovered; rising to 38% and 21% respectively at follow-up. Regardless of allocation, only 20% of patients were asymptomatic at follow-up. Individual cognitive therapy (CT) was most efficacious, followed by group CT plus exposure and response prevention. Self-help interventions were generally less efficacious than face-to-face approaches. LIMITATIONS: Data were analysed from 24 of the 43 eligible RCTs. We were unable to consider the long-term efficacy of treatments because only two RCTs provided long-term (> 12 month) follow-up data. CONCLUSION: Almost 80% of treated patients remain symptomatic. The efficacy of psychological interventions for patients with OCD must be enhanced.

Histologically confirmed tuberculosis-associated obstructive pulmonary disease.

Although chronic airflow limitation (CAL) is an important long-term consequence of tuberculosis (TB), little is known about the disease process. We present what we believe to be the first case of histologically confirmed residual TB-associated obstructive pulmonary disease (TOPD) in a 23-year-old non-smoking man who developed severe CAL after one episode of TB, with no other plausible risk factors. Lung biopsies identified residual post-TB pathology affecting the small airways and vessels throughout his lung; this has not been reported previously. These findings strengthen the argument that TOPD may be a phenotype of CAL distinct from both smoking-related chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchiectasis.

Advancing the Sustainability of US Agriculture through Long-Term Research.

Agriculture in the United States must respond to escalating demands for productivity and efficiency, as well as pressures to improve its stewardship of natural resources. Growing global population and changing diets, combined with a greater societal awareness of agriculture's role in delivering ecosystem services beyond food, feed, fiber, and energy production, require a comprehensive perspective on where and how US agriculture can be sustainably intensified, that is, made more productive without exacerbating local and off-site environmental concerns. The USDA's Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network is composed of 18 locations distributed across the contiguous United States working together to integrate national and local agricultural priorities and advance the sustainable intensification of US agriculture. We explore here the concept of sustainable intensification as a framework for defining strategies to enhance production, environmental, and rural prosperity outcomes from agricultural systems. We also elucidate the diversity of factors that have shaped the past and present conditions of cropland, rangeland, and pastureland agroecosystems represented by the LTAR network and identify priorities for research in the areas of production, resource conservation and environmental quality, and rural prosperity. Ultimately, integrated long-term research on sustainable intensification at the national scale is critical to developing practices and programs that can anticipate and address challenges before they become crises.

Complete resolution of apparently definite radiological and histological usual interstitial pneumonia.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is considered to be the most common form of pulmonary fibrosis. It is a progressive and irreversible disease with a reported median survival of ~3 years. The pathological correlate is usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP), and although antifibrotic agents can slow down lung function decline, they do not completely reverse the disease process. To date, there have been no case reports describing reversal of UIP. We present a case where both the imaging and histology were compatible with definite UIP, yet it reversed with immunosuppressive therapy without the use of antifibrotic agents.

Journal peer review: a bar or bridge? An analysis of a paper's revision history and turnaround time, and the effect on citation.

Journal peer review lies at the heart of academic quality control. This article explores the journal peer review process and seeks to examine how the reviewing process might itself contribute to papers, leading them to be more highly cited and to achieve greater recognition. Our work builds on previous observations and views expressed in the literature about (a) the role of actors involved in the research and publication process that suggest that peer review is inherent in the research process and (b) on the contribution reviewers themselves might make to the content and increased citation of papers. Using data from the journal peer review process of a single journal in the Social Sciences field (Business, Management and Accounting), we examine the effects of peer review on papers submitted to that journal including the effect upon citation, a novel step in the study of the outcome of peer review. Our detailed analysis suggests, contrary to initial assumptions, that it is not the time taken to revise papers but the actual number of revisions that leads to greater recognition for papers in terms of citation impact. Our study provides evidence, albeit limited to the case of a single journal, that the peer review process may constitute a form of knowledge production and is not the simple correction of errors contained in submitted papers.

Feeding the fire: Tracing the mass-loading of 107 K galactic outflows with O vi absorption.

Galactic outflows regulate the amount of gas galaxies convert into stars. However, it is difficult to measure the mass outflows remove because they span a large range of temperatures and phases. Here, we study the rest-frame ultraviolet spectrum of a lensed galaxy at z ~ 2.9 with prominent interstellar absorption lines from O i, tracing neutral gas, up to O vi, tracing transitional phase gas. The O vi profile mimics weak low-ionization profiles at low velocities, and strong saturated profiles at high velocities. These trends indicate that O vi gas is co-spatial with the low-ionization gas. Further, at velocities blueward of -200 km s-1 the column density of the low-ionization outflow rapidly drops while the O vi column density rises, suggesting that O vi is created as the low-ionization gas is destroyed. Photoionization models do not reproduce the observed O vi, but adequately match the low-ionization gas, indicating that the phases have different formation mechanisms. Photoionized outflows are more massive than O vi outflows for most of the observed velocities, although the O vi mass outflow rate exceeds the photoionized outflow at velocities above the galaxy's escape velocity. Therefore, most gas capable of escaping the galaxy is in a hot outflow phase. We suggest that the O vi absorption is a temporary by-product of conduction transferring mass from the photoionized phase to an unobserved hot wind, and discuss how this mass-loading impacts the observed circum-galactic medium.

Theory of mind as a predictor of maternal sensitivity in women with severe mental illness.

BACKGROUND: Research has shown that maternal mental illness can affect mother-infant interactions with implications for infant outcomes. Severe and chronic mental illness (SMI), particularly schizophrenia, is associated with the greatest risk. Schizophrenia is also associated with impairments in attribution of mental states, 'theory of mind' (ToM). Recent attachment research has suggested that maternal mentalizing skills are strongly associated with attachment outcome in infants. To date, no research has explored the relationship between ToM and maternal sensitivity in mothers with SMI using standard tests of ToM. The present study was designed as an exploratory study in order to investigate this. METHOD: A total of 40 women with SMI in the postpartum period were administered a battery of ToM tasks and general neuropsychological tasks. The women were also filmed in an unstructured play session with their infants, which was coded for maternal sensitivity using the Crittenden CARE-Index. RESULTS: One ToM task, the Frith-Happé Animations, predicted maternal sensitivity across all diagnoses. There was also an effect of diagnosis, with lower sensitivity observed in women with schizophrenia. ToM impairments did not fully explain the effect of diagnosis on sensitivity. Mothers of girls were rated as being more sensitive than mothers of boys. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that ToM is a significant predictor of maternal sensitivity across all mental health diagnoses, extending the results of studies focusing on healthy populations. Clinical interventions emphasizing the importance of understanding the perspective of the infant may enhance maternal sensitivity.

Discovery of 505-million-year old chitin in the basal demosponge Vauxia gracilenta.

Sponges are probably the earliest branching animals, and their fossil record dates back to the Precambrian. Identifying their skeletal structure and composition is thus a crucial step in improving our understanding of the early evolution of metazoans. Here, we present the discovery of 505-million-year-old chitin, found in exceptionally well preserved Vauxia gracilenta sponges from the Middle Cambrian Burgess Shale. Our new findings indicate that, given the right fossilization conditions, chitin is stable for much longer than previously suspected. The preservation of chitin in these fossils opens new avenues for research into other ancient fossil groups.

A novel frequency analysis method for assessing K(ir)2.1 and Na (v)1.5 currents.

Voltage clamping is an important tool for measuring individual currents from an electrically active cell. However, it is difficult to isolate individual currents without pharmacological or voltage inhibition. Herein, we present a technique that involves inserting a noise function into a standard voltage step protocol, which allows one to characterize the unique frequency response of an ion channel at different step potentials. Specifically, we compute the fast Fourier transform for a family of current traces at different step potentials for the inward rectifying potassium channel, K(ir)2.1, and the channel encoding the cardiac fast sodium current, Na(v)1.5. Each individual frequency magnitude, as a function of voltage step, is correlated to the peak current produced by each channel. The correlation coefficient vs. frequency relationship reveals that these two channels are associated with some unique frequencies with high absolute correlation. The individual IV relationship can then be recreated using only the unique frequencies with magnitudes of high absolute correlation. Thus, this study demonstrates that ion channels may exhibit unique frequency responses.

Conformational changes in the M2 muscarinic receptor induced by membrane voltage and agonist binding.

The ability to sense transmembrane voltage is a central feature of many membrane proteins, most notably voltage-gated ion channels. Gating current measurements provide valuable information on protein conformational changes induced by voltage. The recent observation that muscarinic G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) generate gating currents confirms their intrinsic capacity to sense the membrane electrical field. Here, we studied the effect of voltage on agonist activation of M2 muscarinic receptors (M2R) in atrial myocytes and how agonist binding alters M2R gating currents. Membrane depolarization decreased the potency of acetylcholine (ACh), but increased the potency and efficacy of pilocarpine (Pilo), as measured by ACh-activated K+ current, I(KACh). Voltage-induced conformational changes in M2R were modified in a ligand-selective manner: ACh reduced gating charge displacement while Pilo increased the amount of charge displaced. Thus, these ligands manifest opposite voltage-dependent I(KACh) modulation and exert opposite effects on M2R gating charge displacement. Finally, mutations in the putative ligand binding site perturbed the movement of the M2R voltage sensor. Our data suggest that changes in voltage induce conformational changes in the ligand binding site that alter the agonist­receptor interaction in a ligand-dependent manner. Voltage-dependent GPCR modulation has important implications for cellular signalling in excitable tissues. Gating current measurement allows for the tracking of subtle conformational changes in the receptor that accompany agonist binding and changes in membrane voltage.

Spatial analysis of tuberculosis in an urban west African setting: is there evidence of clustering?

OBJECTIVES: To describe the pattern of tuberculosis (TB) occurrence in Greater Banjul, The Gambia with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Spatial Scan Statistics (SaTScan) and to determine whether there is significant TB case clustering. METHODS: In Greater Banjul, where 80% of all Gambian TB cases arise, all patients with TB registered at chest clinics between March 2007 and February 2008 were asked to participate. Demographic, clinical characteristics and GPS co-ordinates for the residence of each consenting TB case were recorded. A spatial scan statistic was used to identify purely spatial and space-time clusters of tuberculosis among permanent residents. RESULTS: Of 1145 recruited patients with TB, 84% were permanent residents with 88% living in 37 settlements that had complete maps available down to settlement level. Significant high- and low-rate spatial and space-time clusters were identified in two districts. The most likely cluster of high rate from both the purely spatial analysis and the retrospective space-time analysis were from the same geographical area. A significant secondary cluster was also identified in one of the densely populated areas of the study region. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of significant clustering of TB cases in Greater Banjul, The Gambia. Systematic use of cluster detection techniques for regular TB surveillance in The Gambia may aid effective deployment of resources. However, passive case detection dictates that community-based active case detection and risk factor surveys would help confirm the presence of true clusters and their causes.

Review: what evidence is there about the specific environmental needs of older people who are near the end of life and are cared for in hospices or similar institutions? A literature review.

Relatively little is known about the type of physical environment which is needed and preferred by patients aged 65 and over, with a prognosis of 1 year or less, who are receiving care in hospitals, care homes and hospices, and their families and staff. A narrative literature review was conducted to identify and analyse evidence on this issue, with twenty-nine papers meeting the inclusion criteria. The patients were found to have a wide range of views on their environment, but there was some variation between the views of patients and those of their families and staff. Four main themes emerged: the physical environment should be 'homely'; it should support patients' need for social interaction and privacy; it should support the caring activities of staff, family members and patients; and it should allow opportunities for spiritual expression. It is evident that the physical environment contributes significantly to the quality of life of older people with a life-limiting illness, and there is a need for more research in this area. Regular assessment of patients' environmental needs should form part of care planning.

Irreversibility and fluctuation theorem in stationary time series.

The relative entropy between the joint probability distribution of backward and forward sequences is used to quantify time asymmetry (or irreversibility) for stationary time series. The parallel with the thermodynamic theory of nonequilibrium steady states allows us to link the degree of asymmetry in the time signal with the distance from equilibrium and the lack of detailed balance among its states. We study the statistics of time asymmetry in terms of the fluctuation theorem, showing that this type of relationship derives from simple general symmetries valid for any stationary time series.

Comparison of linear accelerations from three measurement systems during "reach & grasp".

Given the increased use of accelerometers in movement analysis, validation of such inertial sensors against conventional 3D camera systems and performance comparisons of different sensors have become important topics in biomechanics. This paper evaluates and compares linear acceleration trajectories obtained from two different 3D accelerometers and derived from Vicon position data for an upper limb "reach & grasp" task. Overall, good correspondence between the three measurement systems was obtained. Sources of error are discussed.