Stratifying Deterioration Risk by Acuity at Admission Offers Triage Insights for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Triaging patients at admission to determine subsequent deterioration risk can be difficult. This is especially true of coronavirus disease 2019 patients, some of whom experience significant physiologic deterioration due to dysregulated immune response following admission. A well-established acuity measure, the Rothman Index, is evaluated for stratification of patients at admission into high or low risk of subsequent deterioration. DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective study. SETTING: One academic medical center in Connecticut, and three community hospitals in Connecticut and Maryland. PATIENTS: Three thousand four hundred ninety-nine coronavirus disease 2019 and 14,658 noncoronavirus disease 2019 adult patients admitted to a medical service between January 1, 2020, and September 15, 2020. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Performance of the Rothman Index at admission to predict in-hospital mortality or ICU utilization for both general medical and coronavirus disease 2019 populations was evaluated using the area under the curve. Precision and recall for mortality prediction were calculated, high- and low-risk thresholds were determined, and patients meeting threshold criteria were characterized. The Rothman Index at admission has good to excellent discriminatory performance for in-hospital mortality in the coronavirus disease 2019 (area under the curve, 0.81-0.84) and noncoronavirus disease 2019 (area under the curve, 0.90-0.92) populations. We show that for a given admission acuity, the risk of deterioration for coronavirus disease 2019 patients is significantly higher than for noncoronavirus disease 2019 patients. At admission, Rothman Index-based thresholds segregate the majority of patients into either high- or low-risk groups; high-risk groups have mortality rates of 34-45% (coronavirus disease 2019) and 17-25% (noncoronavirus disease 2019), whereas low-risk groups have mortality rates of 2-5% (coronavirus disease 2019) and 0.2-0.4% (noncoronavirus disease 2019). Similarly large differences in ICU utilization are also found. CONCLUSIONS: Acuity level at admission may support rapid and effective risk triage. Notably, in-hospital mortality risk associated with a given acuity at admission is significantly higher for coronavirus disease 2019 patients than for noncoronavirus disease 2019 patients. This insight may help physicians more effectively triage coronavirus disease 2019 patients, guiding level of care decisions and resource allocation.

Development and validation of a continuously age-adjusted measure of patient condition for hospitalized children using the electronic medical record.

Awareness of a patient's clinical status during hospitalization is a primary responsibility for hospital providers. One tool to assess status is the Rothman Index (RI), a validated measure of patient condition for adults, based on empirically derived relationships between 1-year post-discharge mortality and each of 26 clinical measurements available in the electronic medical record. However, such an approach cannot be used for pediatrics, where the relationships between risk and clinical variables are distinct functions of patient age, and sufficient 1-year mortality data for each age group simply do not exist. We report the development and validation of a new methodology to use adult mortality data to generate continuously age-adjusted acuity scores for pediatrics. Clinical data were extracted from EMRs at three pediatric hospitals covering 105,470 inpatient visits over a 3-year period. The RI input variable set was used as a starting point for the development of the pediatric Rothman Index (pRI). Age-dependence of continuous variables was determined by plotting mean values versus age. For variables determined to be age-dependent, polynomial functions of mean value and mean standard deviation versus age were constructed. Mean values and standard deviations for adult RI excess risk curves were separately estimated. Based on the "find the center of the channel" hypothesis, univariate pediatric risk was then computed by applying a z-score transform to adult mean and standard deviation values based on polynomial pediatric mean and standard deviation functions. Multivariate pediatric risk is estimated as the sum of univariate risk. Other age adjustments for categorical variables were also employed. Age-specific pediatric excess risk functions were compared to age-specific expert-derived functions and to in-hospital mortality. AUC for 24-h mortality and pRI scores prior to unplanned ICU transfers were computed. Age-adjusted risk functions correlated well with similar functions in Bedside PEWS and PAWS. Pediatric nursing data correlated well with risk as measured by mortality odds ratios. AUC for pRI for 24-h mortality was 0.93 (0.92, 0.94), 0.93 (0.93, 0.93) and 0.95 (0.95, 0.95) at the three pediatric hospitals. Unplanned ICU transfers correlated with lower pRI scores. Moreover, pRI scores declined prior to such events. A new methodology to continuously age-adjust patient acuity provides a tool to facilitate timely identification of physiologic deterioration in hospitalized children.

Automated analysis of electronic medical record data reflects the pathophysiology of operative complications.

PURPOSE: We hypothesized that a novel algorithm that uses data from the electronic medical record (EMR) from multiple clinical and biometric sources could provide early warning of organ dysfunction in patients with high risk for postoperative complications and sepsis. Operative patients undergoing colorectal procedures were evaluated. METHODS: The Rothman Index (RI) is a predictive model based on heuristic equations derived from 26 variables related to inpatient care. The RI integrates clinical nursing observations, bedside biometrics, and laboratory data into a continuously updated, numeric physiologic assessment, ranging from 100 (unimpaired) to -91. The RI can be displayed within the EMR as a graphic trend, with a decreasing trend reflecting physiologic dysfunction. Patients undergoing colorectal procedures between June and October 2011 were evaluated to determine correlation of initial RI, average inpatient RI, and lowest RI to incidence of complications and/or postoperative sepsis. Patients were stratified by color-coded RI risk group (100-65, blue; 64-40, yellow; <40 red). One-way or repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare groups by age, number of complications, and presence of sepsis defined by discharge International Classification of Diseases, 9(th) Revision, codes. Mean direct cost of care and duration of stay also was calculated for each group. RESULTS: The overall incidence of perioperative complications in the 124 patient cohort was 51% (n = 64 patients). The 261 complications sustained by this group represented 82 distinct diagnoses. The 10 patients with sepsis (8%) experienced a 40% mortality. Analysis of initial RI for the population stratified by number of complications and/or sepsis demonstrated a risk-related difference. With progressive onset of complications, the RI decreased, suggesting worsening physiologic dysfunction and linear increase in direct cost of care. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that EMR data can be automatically compiled into an objective metric that reflects patient risk and changing physiologic state. The automated process of continuous update reflects a physiologic trajectory associated with evolving organ system dysfunction indicative of postoperative complications. Early intervention based on these trends may guide preoperative counseling, enhance pre-emptive management of adverse occurrences, and improve cost-efficiency of care.

Inpatient nursing unit volume, length of stay, cost, and mortality.

Nursing unit volume-outcome relationships exist for patients assigned selected DRGs. This finding suggests that, in some cases, aggregating inpatients with similar clinical conditions may result in lower cost of care, shorter length of stay, and fewer hospital deaths.