Demographic dividend-favorable policy environment in two pre-dividend African nations: review of national policies and prospects for policy amendments in Nigeria and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: In collaboration with local partners, we reviewed 18 national policy documents across two sub-Saharan African countries identified as pre-dividend nations by the World Bank in 2017: Nigeria and Tanzania. Our aim was to assess national policies in pre-dividend countries and to determine whether national strategies were primed to capitalize on changing demographic structures, maximally attain the demographic dividend, and augment socio-economic growth. METHODS: We conducted policy reviews by focusing on five key sectors of the Gates Institute Demographic Dividend Framework: Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, Education, Women's Empowerment, and Labor Market. This framework was developed as a tool for countries to apply targeted policies for accelerating the demographic dividend based on their demographic structure. For each component we used a comprehensive list of indicators, defined via a systematic literature review, through which we assessed national policies aimed at maximizing the demographic dividend. RESULTS: Between the two countries, we observed persistent gaps in policies targeting family planning. Although more comprehensive, policies addressing maternal and child health, education, women's empowerment, and labor market still lagged in their specificity and measurability. We identified specific policy amendments and alternatives that Nigeria and Tanzania could consider to mitigate these gaps. We also stress the importance of designing measurable policy initiatives across sectors. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these recommendations, as Nigeria, Tanzania, and other pre-dividend nations start experiencing rapid demographic changes, they may consider implementing routine policy reviews to strengthen policies across the five key sectors and harness the benefits of a demographic dividend.

Development of the Demographic Dividend Effort Index, a novel tool to measure existing efforts to create a favourable environment to harness a demographic dividend: results from an experts' survey from six sub-Saharan African countries.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a tool to measure the extent of national efforts in policies, services, research and programmes implemented to cultivate and harness the benefits of a potential demographic dividend in six sub-Saharan African countries. DESIGN: The survey was self-administered online using the SurveyMonkey platform. The survey questionnaire covered six key sectors: family planning, maternal and child health, education, women's empowerment, labour market, and governance and economic institution. Each sector-specific questionnaire was structured around five practice domains: policymaking, services and programmes, advocacy, research and civil society. Each item was scored from 1 to 10. Factor analysis was used to select the items to be retained for final score estimation. Simple averages were computed to estimate sectoral and domain scores and overall country scores were estimated using weighted country mean scores. Internal consistency, construct validity and reliability were examined using factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha. SETTING: Sub-Saharan Africa. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 440 knowledgeable informants from six countries; namely, Ethiopia (73), Kenya (69), Nigeria (67), Rwanda (54), Senegal (81) and Tanzania (96). RESULTS: Based on the results from factor analysis, 38 items were dropped from the analysis and Cronbach's alpha results ranged from 0.84 to 0.98 across domains. The overall demographic dividend effort index (DDEI) scores ranged between 5.4 (95% CI 5.1 to 5.8) in Ethiopia to 7.7 (95% CI 7.5 to 8.0) in Rwanda. In most countries, the disaggregated scores by sector revealed low scores in the labour market and women's empowerment. CONCLUSION: The DDEI scores highlight important gaps in key health and development sectors. The DDEI proved to be a reliable and internally consistent tool for effort measurement in key demographic dividend sectors. The DDEI can serve as a self-evaluation tool for local actors and may complement existing quantitative tools such as the Global Gender Gap and the Human Capital Index.

Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review.

Background: Africa will double its population by 2050 and more than half will be below age 25. The continent has a unique opportunity to boost its socioeconomic welfare. This systematic literature review aims to develop a conceptual framework that identifies policies and programs that have provided a favorable environment for generating and harnessing a demographic dividend. This framework can facilitate sub-Saharan African countries' understanding of needed actions to accelerate their demographic transition and capitalize on their demographic dividend potential. Methods: The search strategy was structured around three concepts: economic development, fertility, and sub-Saharan Africa. Databases used included PubMed and EconLit. An inductive approach was employed to expand the reference base further. Data were extracted using literature records following a checklist of items to include when reporting a systematic review suggested in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. Results: The final review consisted of 78 peer-reviewed articles, ten reports from the gray literature, and one book. Data were categorized according to relevant demographic dividend typology: pre-dividend and early-dividend. The results from the literature review were synthesized into a framework consisting of five sectors for pre-dividend countries, namely 1) Governance and Economic Institutions, 2) Family Planning, 3) Maternal and Child Health, 4) Education, and 5) Women's Empowerment. An additional sector, 6) Labor Market, is added for early-dividend countries. These sectors must work together to attain a demographic dividend. Conclusions: A country's demographic transition stage must guide policy and programs. Most sub-Saharan African countries have prioritized job creation and employment for youth, yet their efforts to secure a productive labor market require preliminary and complementary investments in governance, family planning, maternal and child health, education, and women's empowerment. Creating a favorable policy environment for generating and capitalizing on a demographic dividend can support their stated goals for development.

Family planning science and practice lessons from the 2018 International Conference on Family Planning.

Background Since 2009, the International Conference on Family Planning (ICFP) has served as an opportunity for the global reproductive health community to share FP advances and practice lessons in the areas of research, programming, and advocacy. The purpose of this paper was to synthesize the key results and findings presented by members of the FP community at the 2018 ICFP Conference. Methods More than 700 abstracts from all 15 conference tracks were reviewed and 64 abstracts total were selected for this paper based on the novelty and urgency of the findings. The content analysis of conference abstracts were grouped into six final thematic areas. Results 1 ) Investing in family planning for a lifetime of returns. FP continues to face a shortage of funding. Domestically based and locally owned funding models provide alternative financing solutions. 2) Addressing inequities in family planning for key populations. Various populations still face challenges in accessing FP. Youth-inclusive and user-centered programming show promise in addressing such challenges. 3) Reproductive justice, Unsafe abortions tend to be more common among younger, poor, uneducated and rural women. Legislation is still needed to facilitate a culture of safe abortions. 4) Couple dynamics and decision-making. Couples who share equitable responsibility in decision-making processes are more likely to use contraceptives; couple disagreement influences women's decisions to covertly use FP. 5) Male involvement in  programming. Male champions can successfully promote uptake of FP. Gender-transformative programming promotes gender equity and impacts behavior change. 6) Breakthroughs in novel contraceptives and systems improvement in family planning. Recent advances include user-centered contraceptive technologies that allow for self-administration and information systems which optimize supply chain management. Conclusion The research, advocacy, and programmatic abstracts at ICFP 2018 highlighted research advances, showcased implementation science wins, and provided evidence of critical knowledge gaps in global FP access and use.

Capitalising on shared goals for family planning: a concordance assessment of two global initiatives using longitudinal statistical models.

OBJECTIVE: Family planning is unique among health interventions in its breadth of health, development and economic benefits. The complexity of formulating effective strategies to promote women's and girls' access to family planning calls for closer coordination of resources and attention from all stakeholders. Our objective was to quantify the concordance of two global initiatives: Family Planning 2020's adding 120 million modern contraceptive users by 2020 (proposed during The London Summit 2012 by Gates Foundation) and satisfying the 75% demand for modern contraceptives by 2030 (proposed by United States Agency for International Development). A demonstration of their concordance, or lack thereof, provides an understanding of the proposed quantitative goals and helps to formulate collective strategies. DESIGN AND SETTING: We applied fixed effects longitudinal models to assess the convergence of the two initiatives. The implications of success in one initiative on achieving the other are simulated to illustrate their shared goals. Publicly available data on contraceptive use, unmet need and met need from national surveys are used. Extensive model validations were conducted to check and confirm models' predictive performance. RESULTS: Our results show that the 75% demand satisfied initiative will reach 82 million additional modern users by 2020 and 120 million by early 2023. Following FP2020's proposed annual increase of modern contraceptive use, 9 of the 41 commitment-making countries will reach the 75% target by 2020; another 8 countries will do so by 2030. Extending FP2020's proposed contraceptive growth to 2030 implies the achievement of the 75% target in less than half (17) of the 41 commitment-making countries. CONCLUSION: The results from the statistical exercise demonstrate that the two global initiatives move toward the same goal of promoting access to family planning and overall both are ambitious. Closer coordination between major stakeholders in international family planning may stimulate more efficient mobilisation and utilisation of global sources, which is urgently needed to accelerate the progress toward satisfying women's need for family planning.

Trends in contraceptive prevalence rates in sub-Saharan Africa since the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning: results from repeated cross-sectional surveys.

BACKGROUND: The Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) initiative, launched at the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning, aims to enable 120 million additional women to use modern contraceptive methods by 2020 in the world's 69 poorest countries. It will require almost doubling the pre-2012 annual growth rate of modern contraceptive prevalence rates from an estimated 0·7 to 1·4 percentage points to achieve the goal. We examined the post-Summit trends in modern contraceptive prevalence rates in nine settings in eight sub-Saharan African countries (Burkina Faso; Kinshasa, DR Congo; Ethiopia; Ghana; Kenya; Niamey, Niger; Kaduna, Nigeria; Lagos, Nigeria; and Uganda). These settings represent almost 73% of the population of the 18 initial FP2020 commitment countries in the region. METHODS: We used data from 45 rounds of the Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 (PMA2020) surveys, which were all undertaken after 2012, to ascertain the trends in modern contraceptive prevalence rates among all women aged 15-49 years and all similarly aged women who were married or cohabitating. The analyses were done at the national level in five countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda) and in selected high populous regions for three countries (DR Congo, Niger, and Nigeria). We included the following as modern contraceptive methods: oral pills, intrauterine devices, injectables, male and female sterilisations, implants, condom, lactational amenorrhea method, vaginal barrier methods, emergency contraception, and standard days method. We fitted design-based linear and quadratic logistic regression models and estimated the annual rate of changes in modern contraceptive prevalence rates for each country setting from the average marginal effects of the fitted models (expressed in absolute percentage points). Additionally, we did a random-effects meta-analysis to summarise the overall results for the PMA2020 countries. FINDINGS: The annual rates of changes in modern contraceptive prevalence rates among all women of reproductive age (15-49 years) varied from as low as 0·77 percentage points (95% CI -0·73 to 2·28) in Lagos, Nigeria, to 3·64 percentage points (2·81 to 4·47) in Ghana, according to the quadratic model. The rate of change was also high (>1·4 percentage points) in Burkina Faso, Kinshasa (DR Congo), Kaduna (Nigeria), and Uganda. Although contraceptive use was rising rapidly in Ethiopia during the pre-Summit period, our results suggested that the yearly growth rate stalled recently (0·92 percentage points, 95% CI -0·23 to 2·07) according to the linear model. From the meta-analysis, the overall weighted average annual rate of change in modern contraceptive prevalence rates in all women across all nine settings was 1·92 percentage points (95% CI 1·14 to 2·70). Among married or cohabitating women, the annual rates of change were higher in most settings, and the overall weighted average was 2·25 percentage points (95% CI 1·37-3·13). INTERPRETATIONS: Overall, the annual growth rates exceeded the 1·4 percentage points needed to achieve the FP2020 goal of 120 million additional users of modern contraceptives by 2020 in the select study settings. Local programme experiences can be studied for lessons to be shared with other countries aiming to respond to unmet demands for family planning. The findings of this study have implications for the way progress is tracked toward achieving the FP2020 goal. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A demographic dividend of the FP2020 Initiative and the SDG reproductive health target: Case studies of India and Nigeria.

Background: The demographic dividend, defined as the economic growth potential resulting from favorable shifts in population age structure following rapid fertility decline, has been widely employed to advocate improving access to family planning. The current framework focuses on the long-term potential, while the short-term benefits may also help persuade policy makers to invest in family planning. Methods: We estimate the short- and medium-term economic benefits from two major family planning goals: the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020)'s goal of adding 120 million modern contraceptive users by 2020; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3.7 of ensuring universal access to family planning by 2030. We apply the cohort component method to World Population Prospects and National Transfer Accounts data. India and Nigeria, respectively the most populous Asian and African country under the FP2020 initiative, are used as case studies. Results: Meeting the FP2020 target implies that on average, the number of children that need to be supported by every 100 working-age people would decrease by 8 persons in India and 11 persons in Nigeria in 2020; the associated reduction remains at 8 persons in India, but increases to 14 persons in Nigeria by 2030 under the SDG 3.7. In India meeting the FP2020 target would yield a saving of US$18.2 billion (PPP) in consumption expenditures for children and youth in the year 2020 alone, and that increased to US$89.7 billion by 2030. In Nigeria the consumption saved would be US$2.5 billion in 2020 and $12.9 billion by 2030. Conclusions: The tremendous economic benefits from meeting the FP2020 and SDG family planning targets demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of investment in promoting access to contraceptive methods. The gap already apparent between the observed and targeted trajectories indicates tremendous missing opportunities. Accelerated progress is needed to achieve the FP2020 and SDG goals and so reap the demographic dividend.