First-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events in Scotland.

Reports of ChAdOx1 vaccine-associated thrombocytopenia and vascular adverse events have led to some countries restricting its use. Using a national prospective cohort, we estimated associations between exposure to first-dose ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccination and hematological and vascular adverse events using a nested incident-matched case-control study and a confirmatory self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis. An association was found between ChAdOx1 vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) (0-27 d after vaccination; adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 5.77, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.41-13.83), with an estimated incidence of 1.13 (0.62-1.63) cases per 100,000 doses. An SCCS analysis confirmed that this was unlikely due to bias (RR = 1.98 (1.29-3.02)). There was also an increased risk for arterial thromboembolic events (aRR = 1.22, 1.12-1.34) 0-27 d after vaccination, with an SCCS RR of 0.97 (0.93-1.02). For hemorrhagic events 0-27 d after vaccination, the aRR was 1.48 (1.12-1.96), with an SCCS RR of 0.95 (0.82-1.11). A first dose of ChAdOx1 was found to be associated with small increased risks of ITP, with suggestive evidence of an increased risk of arterial thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events. The attenuation of effect found in the SCCS analysis means that there is the potential for overestimation of the reported results, which might indicate the presence of some residual confounding or confounding by indication. Public health authorities should inform their jurisdictions of these relatively small increased risks associated with ChAdOx1. No positive associations were seen between BNT162b2 and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events.

Informing the public health response to COVID-19: a systematic review of risk factors for disease, severity, and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has challenged public health agencies globally. In order to effectively target government responses, it is critical to identify the individuals most at risk of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), developing severe clinical signs, and mortality. We undertook a systematic review of the literature to present the current status of scientific knowledge in these areas and describe the need for unified global approaches, moving forwards, as well as lessons learnt for future pandemics. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Global Health were searched to the end of April 2020, as well as the Web of Science. Search terms were specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19. Comparative studies of risk factors from any setting, population group and in any language were included. Titles, abstracts and full texts were screened by two reviewers and extracted in duplicate into a standardised form. Data were extracted on risk factors for COVID-19 disease, severe disease, or death and were narratively and descriptively synthesised. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and thirty-eight papers were identified post-deduplication. Thirty-three met our inclusion criteria, of which 26 were from China. Six assessed the risk of contracting the disease, 20 the risk of having severe disease and ten the risk of dying. Age, gender and co-morbidities were commonly assessed as risk factors. The weight of evidence showed increasing age to be associated with severe disease and mortality, and general comorbidities with mortality. Only seven studies presented multivariable analyses and power was generally limited. A wide range of definitions were used for disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: The volume of literature generated in the short time since the appearance of SARS-CoV-2 has been considerable. Many studies have sought to document the risk factors for COVID-19 disease, disease severity and mortality; age was the only risk factor based on robust studies and with a consistent body of evidence. Mechanistic studies are required to understand why age is such an important risk factor. At the start of pandemics, large, standardised, studies that use multivariable analyses are urgently needed so that the populations most at risk can be rapidly protected. REGISTRATION: This review was registered on PROSPERO as CRD42020177714 .

Community characteristics modify the relationship between obesity prevention efforts and dietary intake in children: the Healthy Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: The influence of community characteristics on the effectiveness of childhood obesity prevention efforts is not well understood. OBJECTIVE: Examine the interaction of community characteristics with the relationship between community programmes and policies (CPPs) and dietary intake. METHODS: An observational study of 5138 children in grades K-8 in 130 US communities was conducted in 2013-2015. Key informant interviews identified and characterized CPPs. CPP scores were generated for the number of target behaviours (CPP-Behav) and the number of behaviour change strategies (CPP-Strat) addressed by all CPPs and CPPs with nutrition goals over the prior 6 years in each community. Dietary intake was assessed by dietary screener and included intake of sugar from sugar-sweetened beverages; energy-dense foods; fruits and vegetables; whole grains; and fibre. Multivariate statistical models assessed the interactions between US region, urbanicity, community-level income, and community-level race/ethnicity and CPP scores in relation to dietary intake. RESULTS: CPP-Strat was positively associated with healthier dietary intakes in the Northeast and West, and in high Hispanic communities; the reverse was true in the South, and in high African-American and low-income communities. The CPP-Behav was positively associated with healthier dietary intakes in the South and rural areas, and the reverse was true in the West. CONCLUSION: The relationships between CPP index scores and dietary intake were most strongly influenced by region and urbanicity and to a lesser extent by community-level race/ethnicity and income. Findings suggest that different considerations may be needed for childhood obesity prevention efforts in communities with different characteristics.

Associations of community programs and policies with children's dietary intakes: the Healthy Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of community-based obesity prevention efforts on child nutrition has not been adequately studied. OBJECTIVE: Examine relationships between number, type and intensity of community programs and policies (CPPs) and child nutrition. METHODS: An observational study of 5138 children (grades K-8) in 130 U.S. communities was conducted in 2013-2015. CPPs were identified by 10-14 key informant interviews per community. CPPs were characterized based on: count, intensity, number of different strategies used and number of different behaviours targeted. Scores for the prior 6 years were calculated separately for CPPs that addressed primarily nutrition, primarily physical activity (PA) or total combined. Child intakes were calculated from a dietary screener and dietary behaviours were based on survey responses. Multi-level statistical models assessed associations between CPP indices and nutrition measures, adjusting for child and community-level covariates. RESULTS: Implementing more types of strategies across all CPPs was related to lower intakes of total added sugar (when CPPs addressed primarily PA), sugar-sweetened beverages (for nutrition and PA CPPs) and energy-dense foods of minimal nutritional value (for total CPPs). Addressing more behaviours was related to higher intakes of fruit and vegetables (for nutrition and total CPPs) and fibre (total CPPs). Higher count and intensity (PA and total CPPs) were related to more consumption of lower fat compared with higher fat milk. A higher count (PA CPPs) was related to fewer energy-dense foods and whole grains. No other relationships were significant at P < 0.05. CONCLUSION: Multiple characteristics of CPPs to prevent obesity appear important to improve children's diets.

Objectives of community policies and programs associated with more healthful dietary intakes among children: findings from the Healthy Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Rational planning of community policies and programs (CPPs) to prevent obesity requires an understanding of CPP objectives associated with dietary behaviours. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to identify objectives of CPPs associated with healthful dietary behaviours. METHODS: An observational study identified 4026 nutrition CPPs occurring in 130 communities in the prior 6 years. Dietary intakes of fruits and vegetables, added sugar and sugar-sweetened beverages, among others, were reported among 5138 children 4-15 years of age from the communities, using a Dietary Screener Questionnaire with children age 9 years and older (parent assisted) or parent proxies for younger children. CPPs were documented through key informant interviews and characterized by their intensity, count, and objectives including target dietary behaviour and food environment change strategy. Associations between dietary intakes and CPP objectives were assessed using hierarchical statistical models. RESULTS: CPPs with the highest intensity scores that targeted fast food or fat intake or provided smaller portions were associated with greater fruit and vegetable intake (0.21, 0.19, 0.23 cup equivalents/day respectively with p values <0.01, 0.04, 0.03). CPPs with the highest intensity scores that restricted the availability of less healthful foods were associated with lower child intakes of total added sugar (-1.08 tsp/day, p < 0.01) and sugar from sugar-sweetened beverages (-1.63 tsp/day, p = 0.04). Similar associations were observed between CPP count and dietary outcomes. No other significant associations were found between CPP target behaviours or environmental strategies and dietary intakes/behaviours. CONCLUSION: CPPs that targeted decreases in intakes of less healthful foods and/or aimed to modify the availability of less healthful foods and portions were associated with healthier child dietary behaviours.

The longitudinal relationship between community programmes and policies to prevent childhood obesity and BMI in children: the Healthy Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Although a national epidemic of childhood obesity is apparent, how community-based programmes and policies (CPPs) affect this outcome is not well understood. OBJECTIVES: This study examined the longitudinal relationship between the intensity of CPPs in 130 communities over 10 years and body mass index (BMI) of resident children. We also examined whether these relationships differ by key family or community characteristics. METHODS: Five thousand one hundred thirty-eight children in grades K-8 were recruited through 436 schools located within 130 diverse US communities. Measures of height, weight, nutrition, physical activity and behavioural and demographic family characteristics were obtained during in-home visits. A subsample of families consented to medical record review; these weight and height measures were used to calculate BMI over time for 3227 children. A total of 9681 CPPs were reported during structured interviews of 1421 community key informants, and used to calculate a time series of CPP intensity scores within each community over the previous decade. Linear mixed effect models were used to assess longitudinal relationships between childhood BMI and CPP intensity. RESULTS: An average BMI difference of 1.4 kg/m2 (p-value < 0.01) was observed between communities with the highest and lowest observed CPP intensity scores, after adjusting for community and child level covariates. BMI/CPP relationships differed significantly by child grade, race/ethnicity, family income and parental education; as well as community-level race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that, over time, more intense CPP interventions are related to lower childhood BMI, and that there are disparities in this association by sociodemographic characteristics of families and communities.

Weight gain in pregnancy and child weight status from birth to adulthood in the United States.

BACKGROUND: High weight gain in pregnancy has been associated with child adiposity, but few studies have assessed the relationship across childhood or in racially/ethnically diverse populations. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the study are to test if weight gain in pregnancy is associated with high birthweight and overweight/obesity in early, middle and late childhood and whether these associations differ by maternal race/ethnicity. METHODS: Mother-child dyads (n = 7539) were included from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, a nationally representative cohort study in the USA (1979-2012). Log-binomial regression models were used to analyse associations between weight gain and the outcomes: high birthweight (>4000 g) and overweight/obesity at ages 2-5, 6-11 and 12-19 years. RESULTS: Excessive weight gain was positively associated, and inadequate weight gain was negatively associated with high birthweight after confounder adjustment (P < 0.05). Only excessive weight gain was associated with overweight in early, middle and late childhood. These associations were not significant in Hispanics or Blacks although racial/ethnic interaction was only significant ages 12-19 years (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Helping pregnant women gain weight within national recommendations may aid in preventing overweight and obesity across childhood, particularly for non-Hispanic White mothers.

A cardiovascular disease policy model: part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities.

OBJECTIVES: This is the second of the two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state-transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation. DESIGN: To generate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs, the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each continuous inpatient stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan-Meier sample average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health-related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival. RESULTS: The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost-effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made. CONCLUSIONS: The policy model can conduct cost-effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities.

Trivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness for the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza in a Scottish population 2000 to 2009.

To evaluate seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Scotland, we performed a Scotland-wide linkage of patient-level primary care, hospital and virological swab data from 3,323 swabs (pooling data over nine influenza seasons: 2000/01 to 2008/09). We estimated the VE for reducing realtime RT-PCR-confirmed influenza using a test-negative study design. Vaccination was associated with a 57% (95% confidence interval (CI): 31­73) reduction in the risk of PCR-confirmed influenza. VE was 60% (95% CI:22­79) for patients younger than 65 years and clinically at risk of serious complications from influenza, and 19% (95% CI: −104 to 68) for any individual 65 years and older. Vaccination was associated with substantial, sustained reductions in laboratory-confirmed influenza in the general population and younger patients in clinical at-risk groups.

Effect of longer health service provider delays on stage at diagnosis and mortality in symptomatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: This study explored whether longer provider delays (between first presentation and treatment) were associated with later stage and poorer survival in women with symptomatic breast cancer. METHODS: Data from 850 women with symptomatic breast cancer were linked with the Scottish Cancer Registry; Death Registry; and hospital discharge dataset. Logistic regression and Cox survival analyses with restricted cubic splines explored relationships between provider delays, stage and survival, with sequential adjustment for patient and tumour factors. RESULTS: Although confidence intervals were wide in both adjusted analyses, those with the shortest provider delays had more advanced breast cancer at diagnosis. Beyond approximately 20 weeks, the trend suggests longer delays are associated with more advanced stage, but is not statistically significant. Those with symptomatic breast cancer and the shortest presentation to treatment time (within 4 weeks) had the poorest survival. Longer time to treatment was not significantly associated with worsening mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Poor prognosis patients with breast cancer are being triaged for rapid treatment with limited effect on outcome. Prolonged time to treatment does not appear to be strongly associated with poorer outcomes for patients with breast cancer, but the power of this study to assess the effect of very long delays (>25 weeks) was limited. Efforts to reduce waiting times are important from a quality of life perspective, but tumour biology may often be a more important determinant of stage at diagnosis and survival outcome.

A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation.

OBJECTIVES: A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD. DESIGN: A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model. RESULTS: Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables. CONCLUSIONS: Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.

Time from first presentation in primary care to treatment of symptomatic colorectal cancer: effect on disease stage and survival.

BACKGROUND: British 5-year survival from colorectal cancer (CRC) is below the European average, but the reasons are unclear. This study explored if longer provider delays (time from presentation to treatment) were associated with more advanced stage disease at diagnosis and poorer survival. METHODS: Data on 958 people with CRC were linked with the Scottish Cancer Registry, the Scottish Death Registry and the acute hospital discharge (SMR01) dataset. Time from first presentation in primary care to first treatment, disease stage at diagnosis and survival time from date of first presentation in primary care were determined. Logistic regression and Cox survival analyses, both with a restricted cubic spline, were used to model stage and survival, respectively, following sequential adjustment of patient and tumour factors. RESULTS: On univariate analysis, those with <4 weeks from first presentation in primary care to treatment had more advanced disease at diagnosis and the poorest prognosis. Treatment delays between 4 and 34 weeks were associated with earlier stage (with the lowest odds ratio occurring at 20 weeks) and better survival (with the lowest hazard ratio occurring at 16 weeks). Provider delays beyond 34 weeks were associated with more advanced disease at diagnosis, but not increased mortality. Following adjustment for patient, tumour factors, emergency admissions and symptoms and signs, no significant relationship between provider delay and stage at diagnosis or survival from CRC was found. CONCLUSIONS: Although allowing for a nonlinear relationship and important confounders, moderately long provider delays did not impact adversely on cancer outcomes. Delays are undesirable because they cause anxiety; this may be fuelled by government targets and health campaigns stressing the importance of very prompt cancer diagnosis. Our findings should reassure patients. They suggest that a health service's primary emphasis should be on quality and outcomes rather than on time to treatment.

Vaccine effectiveness in pandemic influenza - primary care reporting (VIPER): an observational study to assess the effectiveness of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1)v vaccine.

OBJECTIVES: To determine influenza A (H1N1)v vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the Scottish population at an early stage of the 2009-10 H1N1v vaccination programme, using a sentinel surveillance network of 41 general practices contributing to the Practice Team Information (PTI) network. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using record linkage. Using the Community Health Index (CHI) number, general practice patient-level data were extracted and linked to the Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR) catalogue, containing information on all inpatient hospitalisations in Scotland. The Health Protection Scotland (HPS) data set was also used, consisting of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1)v from the practices. The study involved a longitudinal evaluation of the aspect of the influenza A (H1N1)v vaccination programme implemented through general practice in autumn/winter 2009. RESULTS: At 25 December 2009, vaccine uptake estimates for the study population were 12.0% (95% CI 11.9 to 12.1). For those patients in an at-risk group (n = 59,721), the uptake rate was 37.5% (95% CI 37.1 to 37.9). Among the 1492 patients swabbed, 467 were positive for H1N1, giving a positivity rate of 31.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 29.0 to 33.7]. Among those in a clinical risk group who were not vaccinated, 41.3% (95% CI 35.6 to 46.9) tested positive for influenza A (H1N1)v, a significant difference from the H1N1 positivity percentage among patients with no clinical risk (p < 0.01). Among those vaccinated and in a clinical risk group, only one patient (5%, 95% CI 0.3 to 23.6) tested after vaccination was positive for influenza A (H1N1)v. By comparing postvaccination swabs in those who were vaccinated with swabs taken in those who remained unvaccinated, the VE was found to be 95.0% (95% CI 76.0 to 100.0). In the study population there were 2739 admissions to hospital, of which 1241 were emergency admissions; all 48 emergency hospitalisations for influenza and pneumonia occurred in patients who did not receive the vaccine. VE for single or combined end points of influenza and pneumonia hospitalisation for all patients was estimated at 100.0% (95% CI infinity to 100.0). There were 132 hospitalisations in the unvaccinated group versus five in the vaccinated group for cardiovascular-related conditions. There were 193 hospitalisations in the unvaccinated group versus nine in those vaccinated in the group of patients admitted for influenza, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular-related conditions. VE for cardiovascular-related conditions alone, or in individuals with influenza, pneumonia COPD and cardiovascular-related conditions, was 71.1% (95% CI 11.3 to 90.6) and 64.7% (95% CI 12.0 to 85.8) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from swabs submitted from patients in the cohort who presented in general practice with influenza-like illness suggests that the introduction of influenza A (H1N1)v vaccine in Scotland during 2009 was associated with a high degree of protection. Influenza A (H1N1)v immunisation in primary health-care settings appears to be both effective and widely acceptable, and should continue to be the mainstay of disease prevention for at-risk patients. A further analysis encompassing the whole influenza season is required to cover more days of vaccination exposure and increase precision.

Factors contributing to the time taken to consult with symptoms of lung cancer: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine what factors are associated with the time people take to consult with symptoms of lung cancer, with a focus on those from rural and socially deprived areas. METHODS: A cross-sectional quantitative interview survey was performed of 360 patients with newly diagnosed primary lung cancer in three Scottish hospitals (two in Glasgow, one in NE Scotland). Supplementary data were obtained from medical case notes. The main outcome measures were the number of days from (1) the date participant defined first symptom until date of presentation to a medical practitioner; and (2) the date of earliest symptom from a symptom checklist (derived from clinical guidelines) until date of presentation to a medical practitioner. RESULTS: 179 participants (50%) had symptoms for more than 14 weeks before presenting to a medical practitioner (median 99 days; interquartile range 31-381). 270 participants (75%) had unrecognised symptoms of lung cancer. There were no significant differences in time taken to consult with symptoms of lung cancer between rural and/or deprived participants compared with urban and/or affluent participants. Factors independently associated with increased time before consulting about symptoms were living alone, a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and longer pack years of smoking. Haemoptysis, new onset of shortness of breath, cough and loss of appetite were significantly associated with earlier consulting, as were a history of chest infection and renal failure. CONCLUSION: For many people with lung cancer, regardless of location and socioeconomic status, the time between symptom onset and consultation was long enough to plausibly affect prognosis. Long-term smokers, those with COPD and/or those living alone are at particular risk of taking longer to consult with symptoms of lung cancer and practitioners should be alert to this.

Secondary prevention clinics for coronary heart disease: a 10-year follow-up of a randomised controlled trial in primary care.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects of nurse-led secondary prevention clinics for coronary heart disease (CHD) in primary care on total mortality and coronary event rates after 10 years. DESIGN: Follow-up of a randomised controlled trial by review of national datasets. SETTING: Stratified random sample of 19 general practices in northeast Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: Original study cohort of 1343 patients, aged <80 years, with a working diagnosis of CHD, but without dementia or terminal illness and not housebound. INTERVENTION: Nurse-led secondary prevention clinics promoted medical and lifestyle aspects of secondary prevention and offered regular follow-up for 1 year, MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total mortality and coronary events (non-fatal myocardial infarctions (MIs) and coronary deaths). RESULTS: Mean (SD) follow-up was at 10.2 (0.19) years. No significant differences in total mortality or coronary events were found at 10 years. 254 patients in the intervention group and 277 patients in the control group had died: cumulative death rates were 38% and 41%, respectively (p = 0.177). 196 coronary events occurred in the intervention group and 195 in the control group: cumulative event rates were 29.1% and 29.1%, respectively (p = 0.994). When Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, adjusted for age, sex and general practice, was used, proportional hazard ratios were 0.88 (0.74 to 1.04) for total mortality and 0.96 (0.79 to 1.18) for coronary death or non-fatal MI. No significant differences in the distribution of cause of death classifications was found at either 4 or 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: After 10 years, differences between groups were no longer significant. Total mortality survival curves for the intervention and control groups had not converged, but the coronary event survival curves had. Possibly, therefore, the earlier that secondary prevention is optimised, the less likely a subsequent coronary event is to prove fatal.

Factors influencing time from presentation to treatment of colorectal and breast cancer in urban and rural areas.

Stage at diagnosis and survival from cancer vary according to where people live, suggesting some may have delays in diagnosis. The aim of this study was to determine if time from presentation to treatment was longer for colorectal and breast cancer patients living further from cancer centres, and identify other important factors in delay. Data were collected on 1097 patients with breast and 1223 with colorectal cancer in north and northeast Scotland. Women with breast cancer who lived further from cancer centres were treated more quickly than those living closer to cancer centres (P=0.011). Multilevel modelling found that this was largely due to them receiving earlier treatment at hospitals other than cancer centres. Breast lump, change in skin contour, lymphadenopathy, more symptoms and signs, and increasing age predicted faster treatment. Screen detected cancers and private referrals were treated more quickly. For colorectal cancer, time to treatment was similar for people in rural and urban areas. Quicker treatment was associated with palpable rectal or abdominal masses, tenesmus, abdominal pain, frequent GP consultations, age between 50 and 74 years, tumours of the transverse colon, and iron medication at presentation. Delay was associated with past anxiety or depression. There was variation between general practices and treatment appeared quicker at practices with more female general practitioners.

Impact of deprivation and rural residence on treatment of colorectal and lung cancer.

For common cancers, survival is poorer for deprived and outlying, rural patients. This study investigated whether there were differences in treatment of colorectal and lung cancer in these groups. Case notes of 1314 patients in north and northeast Scotland who were diagnosed with lung or colorectal cancer in 1995 or 1996 were reviewed. On univariate analysis, the proportions of patients receiving surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy appeared similar in all socio-economic and rural categories. Adjusting for disease stage, age and other factors, there was less chemotherapy among deprived patients with lung cancer (odds ratio 0.39; 95% confidence intervals 0.16 to 0.96) and less radiotherapy among outlying patients with colorectal cancer (0.39; 0.19 to 0.82). The time between first referral and treatment also appeared similar in all socio-economic and rural groups. Adjusting for disease stage and other variables, times to lung cancer treatment remained similar, but colorectal cancer treatment was quicker for outlying patients (adjusted hazard ratio 1.30; 95% confidence intervals 1.03 to 1.64). These findings suggest that socio-economic status and rurality may have a minor impact on modalities of treatment for colorectal and lung cancer, but do not lead to delays between referral and treatment.

Population implications of lipid lowering for prevention of coronary heart disease: data from the 1995 Scottish health survey.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the proportion of the population, firstly, with cholesterol >/= 5.0 mmol/l and, secondly, with any cholesterol concentration, who might benefit from statin treatment for the following: secondary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD); primary prevention at CHD risk 30%, 20%, 15%, and 6% over 10 years; and primary prevention at projected CHD risk 20% over 10 years (CHD risk at age 60 years if actual age < 60 years). SUBJECTS: Random stratified sample of 3963 subjects aged 35-64 years from the Scottish health survey 1995. RESULTS: For secondary prevention 7.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 6.9% to 8.6%) of the population with cholesterol >/= 5.0 mmol/l would benefit from statins. For primary prevention, the prevalence of people at CHD risk 30%, 20%, 15%, and 6% over 10 years is 1.5% (95% CI 1.2% to 1.9%), 5.4% (95% CI 4.7% to 6.1%), 9.7% (95% CI 8.8% to 10.6%), and 32.9% (95% CI 31.5% to 34.4%), respectively. At projected CHD risk 20% over 10 years, 12.4% (95% CI 11.4% to 13.5%) would be treated with statins. Removing the 5.0 mmol/l cholesterol threshold makes little difference to population prevalence at high CHD risk. CONCLUSIONS: Statin treatment would be required for 7.8% of the population for secondary prevention. For primary prevention, among other factors, guidelines should take into account the number of patients needing treatment at different levels of CHD risk when choosing the CHD risk to target. The analysis supports a policy of targeting treatment at CHD risk 30% over 10 years as a minimum, as recommended in current British guidelines, with a move to treating at CHD risk 15% over 10 years as resources permit.

Ethnic issues in the epidemiology of childhood obesity.

Childhood obesity may be seen as a marker for high-risk dietary and physical inactivity practices. Recent increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among American children are not limited to one age, gender, or ethnic group, which suggests that unique behaviors of the members of various racial or ethnic subgroups of the population are unlikely to be the major contributing factors. Rather, it seems that environmental changes promoting increased energy intake and decreased energy output are occurring and have widespread impact on children from various backgrounds. Although no ethnic group is immune from the current shift in energy balance, differential rates of overweight seem to exist among ethnic groups. National probability samples of African-American, Hispanic, and white children in the United States provide clear evidence that white children are at lower risk for childhood overweight than are African-American or Hispanic children. Of concern is the lack of national data on the prevalence of overweight and obesity for Native-American and Asian-American groups. Also of concern is the aggregation of racial and ethnic subgroups, which may render prevalence rates meaningless. This possibility is clearly true with some surveys of weight status that combine diverse populations, such as Asians and Pacific Islanders, into one group. The high rates of obesity in African-American, Hispanic, and Native-American children are of concern. Although parental SES is associated inversely with childhood obesity among whites, higher SES does not seem to protect African-American and Hispanic children against obesity. In these groups, childhood obesity does not seem to be associated significantly with parental income and education. Health consequences of childhood obesity include a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes and an increased risk for adverse levels of lipids, lipoproteins, and blood pressure. The effects of recently reported unprecedented levels of childhood overweight on subsequent risk for obesity in middle age are not known until future longitudinal data can be collected. It seems likely, however, that future health consequences of current early and severe childhood obesity will be staggering. Funding for adult follow-up of longitudinal studies of high-risk African American, Hispanic, and Native-American children is needed urgently to provide information on the long-term effects of childhood obesity. Halting the obesity epidemic is a formidable task, but the success in recent decades of drastically reducing childhood undernutrition offers hope and should spur similar action and leadership efforts. Promotion of efforts to reduce excess caloric intake with efforts to increase energy expenditure should receive paramount attention in the design of health programs. Given the relatively few published obesity-prevention and treatment studies that are designed to address specific cultural issues, it is important to promote the development of culturally appropriate intervention strategies that are shown to be effective among youth of diverse backgrounds. Although the dietary and activity goals will be similar, parental, family, and community messages and techniques grounded in cultural traditions and norms will be different for each ethnic group. This approach is crucial in the United States, a country with an increasingly diverse population.