Are prediction models for vaginal birth after cesarean accurate?

BACKGROUND: The use of trial of labor after cesarean delivery calculators in the prediction of successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery gives physicians an evidence-based tool to assist with patient counseling and risk stratification. Before deployment of prediction models for routine care at an institutional level, it is recommended to test their performance initially in the institution's target population. This allows the institution to understand not only the overall accuracy of the model for the intended population but also to comprehend where the accuracy of the model is most limited when predicting across the range of predictions (calibration). OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare 3 models that predict successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery with the use of a single tertiary referral cohort before continuous model deployment in the electronic medical record. STUDY DESIGN: All cesarean births for failed trial of labor after cesarean delivery and successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery at an academic health system between May 2013 and March 2016 were reviewed. Women with a history of 1 previous cesarean birth who underwent a trial of labor with a term (≥37 weeks gestation), cephalic, and singleton gestation were included. Women with antepartum intrauterine fetal death or fetal anomalies were excluded. The probability of successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery was calculated with the use of 3 prediction models: Grobman 2007, Grobman 2009, and Metz 2013 and compared with actual vaginal birth after cesarean delivery success. Each model's performance was measured with the use of concordance indices, Brier scores, and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis identified the range of threshold probabilities for which the best prediction model would be of clinical value. RESULTS: Four hundred four women met the eligibility criteria. The observed rate of successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery was 75% (305/404). Concordance indices were 0.717 (95% confidence interval, 0.659-0.778), 0.703 (95% confidence interval, 0.647-0.758), and 0.727 (95% confidence interval, 0.669-0.779), respectively. Brier scores were 0.172, 0.205, and 0.179, respectively. Calibration demonstrated that Grobman 2007 and Metz vaginal birth after cesarean delivery models were most accurate when predicted probabilities were >60% and were beneficial for counseling women who did not desire to have vaginal birth after cesarean delivery but had a predicted success rates of 60-90%. The models underpredicted actual probabilities when predicting success at <60%. The Grobman 2007 and Metz vaginal birth after cesarean delivery models provided greatest net benefit between threshold probabilities of 60-90% but did not provide a net benefit with lower predicted probabilities of success compared with a strategy of recommending vaginal birth after cesarean delivery for all women . CONCLUSION: When 3 commonly used vaginal birth after cesarean delivery prediction models are compared in the same population, there are differences in performance that may affect an institution's choice of which model to use.

Managing Heavy Menstrual Bleeding in Women at Risk of Thrombosis.

Management of heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) in a woman with a history of thrombosis, or who is otherwise at high risk of thrombosis, or who takes medications for anticoagulation can present a challenge to health care providers. The goal of treating HMB is to reduce menstrual blood loss. First-line therapy is typically hormonal, and hormonal therapy can be contraindicated in women with a history of thrombosis unless they are on anticoagulation. As 70% of women on anticoagulation experience HMB, successful management of HMB may involve a modification in the anticoagulation or antiplatelet regimen, hormonal therapy tailored to the patient's situation, and/or surgical therapy.

Comparison of Laser Doppler and Laser-Assisted Indocyanine Green Angiography Prediction of Flap Survival in a Novel Modification of the McFarlane Flap.

BACKGROUND: The McFarlane rat ischemic dorsal skin flap model has been commonly used for clinical vector studies, as well as the testing of noninvasive diagnostics. However, variability of this model secondary to flap contact with the wound bed has led many to question its validity. Here we present a novel modification to the McFarlane skin flap using sterile silicone. We also use this model to test the prognostic efficacy of laser-assisted indocyanine green (ICG) angiography and laser Doppler imaging (LDI). METHODOLOGY: A 3 × 9-cm dorsal skin flap with a cranially based pedicle was created, centered 1 cm distal to the scapulae. The flap was undermined, and in one of the 2 groups, a sterile silicone sheet was placed onto the wound bed. All flaps were then reapproximated with sutures 1-cm intervals. Clinical assessment and perfusion imaging was performed immediately postoperative, and at 24, 48, and 72 hours postsurgery. Postoperative day 7 clinical assessment was obtained before euthanasia. RESULTS: A comparative study using silicone blocked versus unblocked models (n = 6 per group) showed that, clinically, both models had equivalent flap survival [8.5 (0.913) vs 9.5 (1.01) cm]. However, a statistically significant increase in perfusion in the mid-third of unblocked models was observed on POD3 [20.28% (2.7%) vs blocked 13.45% (2.5%), P < 0.05], with a similar increase in the distal third on POD7 [18.73% (2.064%) vs 10.91% (4.19%), P < 0.05]. A prognostic study comparing LDI and ICG angiography prediction of POD7 survival at early time points (n = 10) found that LDI underpredicted flap survival at early time points [84.2% (12.03%) on POD0, 87.35% (16.11%) on POD1]. In contrast, ICG was more proficient [100.1% (10.1%) on POD0]. CONCLUSIONS: We present a modification of the McFarlane skin flap model that results in similar clinical results, but with a noted reduction in perfusion inconsistencies noted in unblocked models. The ICG angiography is superior to LDI in predicting POD7 flap necrosis within the first 48 hours postinjury. Future work will focus on histologic validation of our model, and vector efficacy testing.

Comparing quantitative values of two generations of laser-assisted indocyanine green dye angiography systems: can we predict necrosis?

OBJECTIVE: Several devices exist today to assist the intraoperative determination of skin flap perfusion. Laser-Assisted Indocyanine Green Dye Angiography (LAICGA) has been shown to accurately predict mastectomy skin flap necrosis using quantitative perfusion values. The laser properties of the latest LAICGA device (SPY Elite) differ significantly from its predecessor system (SPY 2001), preventing direct translation of previous published data. The purpose of this study was to establish a mathematical relationship of perfusion values between these 2 devices. METHODS: Breast reconstruction patients were prospectively enrolled into a clinical trial where skin flap evaluation and excision was based on quantitative SPY Q values previously established in the literature. Initial study patients underwent mastectomy skin flap evaluation using both SPY systems simultaneously. Absolute perfusion unit (APU) values at identical locations on the breast were then compared graphically. RESULTS: 210 data points were identified on the same patients (n = 4) using both SPY systems. A linear relationship (y = 2.9883x + 12.726) was identified with a high level or correlation (R(2) = 0.744). Previously published values using SPY 2001 (APU 3.7) provided a value of 23.8 APU on the SPY Elite. In addition, postoperative necrosis in these patients correlated to regions of skin identified with the SPY Elite with APU less than 23.8. CONCLUSION: Intraoperative comparison of LAICGA systems has provided direct correlation of perfusion values predictive of necrosis that were previously established in the literature. An APU value of 3.7 from the SPY 2001 correlates to a SPY Elite APU value of 23.8.