Implementing physical activity calorie equivalent (PACE) food labelling: Views of a nationally representative sample of adults in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional labels aim to support people to make informed healthy food choices, but many people do not understand the meaning of calories on food labels. Another approach is to provide calorie information with an interpretation of what the calorie content of food means for energy expenditure, known as physical activity calorie equivalent (PACE) labelling. PACE aims to illustrate how many minutes of physical activity are equivalent to the calories contained in food/drinks. This study investigated the views of the public about the possible implementation of PACE labelling. METHODS: Data was obtained from a nationally representative sample of adults in the United Kingdom and collected by UK Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Panellists are recruited via a random probability unclustered address-based sampling method. 4,000 panellists were randomly invited to participate and asked to compare their views about traffic light and PACE labelling preferences and behaviour parameters. RESULTS: Data were analysed descriptively and using logistic and multinomial regression analyses. 2,668/4,000 (67%) of those invited participated. More participants preferred traffic light (43%vs33%) than PACE labelling, but more reported PACE was easier to understand (41%vs27%) and more likely to catch their attention (49%vs31%). More participants thought PACE was more likely to help them avoid high calorie food than traffic light labelling (44%vs28%). Physically active (3-4 or 5+ days/week) respondents were more likely to report PACE would catch their attention than traffic light labelling, compared with less active participants (weighted adjusted relative risk ratio = 1.42 (1.00-2.00) and 1.45 (1.03-2.05 respectively)). Perceived overweight was the most predictive factor (weighted adjusted OR = 2.24 (1.19 to 4.20)) in whether PACE was considered useful in helping people decide what to eat/buy. CONCLUSION: The public identified value to their health in labelling food with PACE information. PACE labelling may be a useful approach to complement current approaches to food labelling.

Body mass index and survival in people with heart failure.

AIMS: In people with heart failure (HF), a high body mass index (BMI) has been linked with better outcomes ('obesity paradox'), but there is limited evidence in community populations across long-term follow-up. We aimed to examine the association between BMI and long-term survival in patients with HF in a large primary care cohort. METHODS: We included patients with incident HF aged ≥45 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2000-2017). We used Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression and penalised spline methods to assess the association of pre-diagnostic BMI, based on WHO classification, with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: There were 47 531 participants with HF (median age 78.0 years (IQR 70-84), 45.8% female, 79.0% white ethnicity, median BMI 27.1 (IQR 23.9-31.0)) and 25 013 (52.6%) died during follow-up. Compared with healthy weight, people with overweight (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.81, risk difference (RD) -4.1%), obesity class I (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.80, RD -4.5%) and class II (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.81, RD -4.5%) were at decreased risk of death, whereas people with underweight were at increased risk (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.45 to 1.75, RD 11.2%). In those underweight, this risk was greater among men than women (p value for interaction=0.02). Class III obesity was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with overweight (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.29). CONCLUSION: The U-shaped relationship between BMI and long-term all-cause mortality suggests a personalised approach to identifying optimal weight may be needed for patients with HF in primary care. Underweight people have the poorest prognosis and should be recognised as high-risk.

Diagnostic accuracy of natriuretic peptide screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction in the community: systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a global health burden and new strategies to achieve timely diagnosis and early intervention are urgently needed. Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing can be used to screen for left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD), but evidence on test performance is mixed, and international HF guidelines differ in their recommendations. Our aim was to summarize the evidence on diagnostic accuracy of NP screening for LVSD in general and high-risk community populations and estimate optimal screening thresholds. METHODS: We searched relevant databases up to August 2020 for studies with a screened community population of over 100 adults reporting NP performance to diagnose LVSD. Study inclusion, quality assessment, and data extraction were conducted independently and in duplicate. Diagnostic test meta-analysis used hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves to obtain estimates of pooled accuracy to detect LVSD, with optimal thresholds obtained to maximize the sum of sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies were identified, involving 26 565 participants: eight studies in high-risk populations (at least one cardiovascular risk factor), 12 studies in general populations, and four in both high-risk and general populations combined. For detecting LVSD in screened high-risk populations with N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), the pooled sensitivity was 0.87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.94] and specificity 0.84 (95% CI 0.55-0.96); for BNP, sensitivity was 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.83) and specificity 0.78 (95% CI 0.72-0.84). Heterogeneity between studies was high with variations in positivity threshold. Due to a paucity of high-risk studies that assessed NP performance at multiple thresholds, it was not possible to calculate optimal thresholds for LVSD screening in high-risk populations alone. To provide an indication of where the positivity threshold might lie, the pooled accuracy for LVSD screening in high-risk and general community populations were combined and gave an optimal cut-off of 311 pg/mL [sensitivity 0.74 (95% CI 0.53-0.88), specificity 0.85 (95% CI 0.68-0.93)] for NT-proBNP and 49 pg/mL [sensitivity 0.68 (95% CI 0.45-0.85), specificity 0.81 (0.67-0.90)] for BNP. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that in high-risk community populations NP screening may accurately detect LVSD, potentially providing an important opportunity for diagnosis and early intervention. Our study highlights an urgent need for further prospective studies, as well as an individual participant data meta-analysis, to more precisely evaluate diagnostic accuracy and identify optimal screening thresholds in specifically defined community-based populations to inform future guideline recommendations.

Natriuretic peptide testing and heart failure diagnosis in primary care: diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing is recommended for patients presenting to primary care with symptoms of chronic heart failure (HF) to prioritise referral for diagnosis. AIM: To report NP test performance at European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline referral thresholds. DESIGN AND SETTING: Diagnostic accuracy study using linked primary and secondary care data (2004 to 2018). METHOD: The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of NP testing for HF diagnosis was assessed. RESULTS: In total, 229 580 patients had an NP test and 21 102 (9.2%) were diagnosed with HF within 6 months. The ESC NT-proBNP threshold ≥125 pg/mL had a sensitivity of 94.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 94.2 to 95.0) and specificity of 50.0% (95% CI = 49.7 to 50.3), compared with sensitivity of 81.7% (95% CI = 81.0 to 82.3) and specificity of 80.3% (95% CI = 80.0 to 80.5) for the NICE NT-proBNP ≥400 pg/mL threshold. PPVs for an NT-proBNP test were 16.4% (95% CI = 16.1 to 16.6) and 30.0% (95% CI = 29.6 to 30.5) for ESC and NICE thresholds, respectively. For both guidelines, nearly all patients with an NT-proBNP level below the threshold did not have HF (NPV: ESC 98.9%, 95% CI = 98.8 to 99.0 and NICE 97.7%, 95% CI = 97.6 to 97.8). CONCLUSION: At the higher NICE chronic HF guideline NP thresholds, one in five cases are initially missed in primary care but the lower ESC thresholds require more diagnostic assessments. NP is a reliable 'rule-out' test at both cut-points. The optimal NP threshold will depend on the priorities and capacity of the healthcare system.

Long term changes in health-related quality of life for people with heart failure: the ECHOES study.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) impairs all aspects of health-related quality of life (HRQoL), but little is known about the effect of developing HF on HRQoL over time. We aimed to report changes in HRQoL over a 13-year period. METHODS AND RESULTS: HRQoL was measured in the Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening (ECHOES) study and the ECHOES-X follow-up study (N = 1618) using the SF-36 questionnaire (Version 1). Mixed modelling compared changes in HRQoL across diagnostic groups, adjusting for potential predictors and design variables. Patients who had developed HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) or HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) at rescreening had significantly greater reduction in physical functioning (PF) and role physical (RP) scores compared with those without HF; adjusted mean difference in PF: HFrEF -16.1, [95% confidence interval (CI) -22.2 to -10.1]; HFpEF -14.6, (95% CI -21.2 to -8.1); in RP: HFrEF -20.7, (95% CI -31.8 to -9.7); HFpEF -19.3, (95% CI -31.0 to -7.6). Changes in HRQoL of those with a HF diagnosis at baseline and rescreen, with exception of role emotion, were similar to those without HF but started from a much lower baseline score. CONCLUSIONS: People with a new diagnosis of HF at rescreening had a significant reduction in HRQoL. Conversely, for those with HF detected on initial screening, little change was observed in HRQoL scores on rescreening. Further research is required to understand the development of HF over time and to test interventions designed to prevent decline in HRQoL, potentially through earlier diagnosis and treatment optimization.

A Christmas themed physical activity intervention to increase participation in physical activity during Advent: pilot randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the recruitment, retention, and preliminary effects of a Christmas themed physical activity intervention designed to increase participation in physical activity and decrease sedentary behaviour in inactive adults. DESIGN: Pilot randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Recruitment from social medial platforms, workplaces, and community groups in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 107 inactive adults (who did not meet the UK guidelines for physical activity) aged 18-75 years. INTERVENTIONS: The intervention consisted of an email sent to participants each day of Advent (1-24 December 2021), which contained a Christmas themed physical activity idea to be completed that day. Each physical activity idea was presented in three intensity formats, including Easy Elf (light intensity), Moderate Mrs Claus (moderate intensity), and Strenuous Santa (vigorous intensity). The comparator group received a leaflet about healthy living on the 1 December. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants were randomly assigned (2:1) to either the intervention or control and were masked to group allocation before randomisation. Primary outcomes were recruitment rate, retention, and weekly minutes of participation in self-reported moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity by use of the exercise vital signs questionnaire. Primary analysis compared change in minutes of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity from baseline to weeks one, two, and three during the Active Advent intervention. Secondary outcomes were participation in muscle strengthening based physical activity (days per week), accelerometer measured moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity, light intensity physical activity, total physical activity, and sedentary time (minutes per day), and enjoyment of and adherence to the intervention. RESULTS: 323 individuals expressed interest in participating in the trial and 107 were randomly assigned to the intervention (n=71) or the comparator (n=36) group. The recruitment target (n=105) was reached within 19 days of starting recruitment. 23 (21%) of 107 participants were lost to follow-up. On average, the groups reported participation in similar minutes of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity in weeks one and two. At week three, the adjusted mean difference between groups was 20.6 minutes of participation in moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity per week (95% confidence interval -29.7 to 70.9) in favour of the intervention group. Accelerometer data showed that the intervention group spent fewer minutes sedentary per day than comparators (mean difference -58.6 (-113.5 to -3.8)). Overall, 42 (70%) of 60 participants in the intervention group reported that they liked the intervention and 41 (69%) of 59 reported that they completed the Active Advent intervention ideas each day. CONCLUSIONS: The public were interested to participate in a Christmas themed physical activity intervention during Advent, which might increase physical activity and reduce time sedentary. Enjoyment of, and adherence to the intervention shows the potential benefit that Christmas themed physical activity campaigns/initiatives might have for improving public health. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN12415556.

Atrial nitroso-redox balance and refractoriness following on-pump cardiac surgery: a randomized trial of atorvastatin.

AIMS: Systemic inflammation and increased activity of atrial NOX2-containing NADPH oxidases have been associated with the new onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) after cardiac surgery. In addition to lowering LDL-cholesterol, statins exert rapid anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects, the clinical significance of which remains controversial. METHODS AND RESULTS: We first assessed the impact of cardiac surgery and cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) on atrial nitroso-redox balance by measuring NO synthase (NOS) and GTP cyclohydrolase-1 (GCH-1) activity, biopterin content, and superoxide production in paired samples of the right atrial appendage obtained before (PRE) and after CPB and reperfusion (POST) in 116 patients. The effect of perioperative treatment with atorvastatin (80 mg once daily) on these parameters, blood biomarkers, and the post-operative atrial effective refractory period (AERP) was then evaluated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 80 patients undergoing cardiac surgery on CPB. CPB and reperfusion led to a significant increase in atrial superoxide production (74% CI 71-76%, n = 46 paired samples, P < 0.0001) and a reduction in atrial tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4) (34% CI 33-35%, n = 36 paired samples, P < 0.01), and in GCH-1 (56% CI 55-58%, n = 26 paired samples, P < 0.001) and NOS activity (58% CI 52-67%, n = 20 paired samples, P < 0.001). Perioperative atorvastatin treatment prevented the effect of CPB and reperfusion on all parameters but had no significant effect on the postoperative right AERP, troponin release, or NT-proBNP after cardiac surgery. CONCLUSION: Perioperative statin therapy prevents post-reperfusion atrial nitroso-redox imbalance in patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery but has no significant impact on postoperative atrial refractoriness, perioperative myocardial injury, or markers of postoperative LV function. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01780740.

Natriuretic peptide level at heart failure diagnosis and risk of hospitalisation and death in England 2004-2018.

OBJECTIVE: Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition requiring urgent treatment. Guidelines recommend natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care to prioritise referral for specialist diagnostic assessment. We aimed to assess association of baseline NP with hospitalisation and mortality in people with newly diagnosed HF. METHODS: Population-based cohort study of 40 007 patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England with a new HF diagnosis (48% men, mean age 78.5 years). We used linked primary and secondary care data between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018 to report one-year hospitalisation and 1-year, 5-year and 10-year mortality by NP level. RESULTS: 22 085 (55%) participants were hospitalised in the year following diagnosis. Adjusted odds of HF-related hospitalisation in those with a high NP (NT-proBNP >2000 pg/mL) were twofold greater (OR 2.26 95% CI 1.98 to 2.59) than a moderate NP (NT-proBNP 400-2000 pg/mL). All-cause mortality rates in the high NP group were 27%, 62% and 82% at 1, 5 and 10 years, compared with 19%, 50% and 77%, respectively, in the moderate NP group and, in a competing risks model, risk of HF-related death was 50% higher at each timepoint. Median time between NP test and HF diagnosis was 101 days (IQR 19-581). CONCLUSIONS: High baseline NP is associated with increased HF-related hospitalisation and poor survival. While healthcare systems remain under pressure from the impact of COVID-19, research to test novel strategies to prevent hospitalisation and improve outcomes-such as a mandatory two-week HF diagnosis pathway-is urgently needed.

Long term trends in natriuretic peptide testing for heart failure in UK primary care: a cohort study.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a malignant condition with poor outcomes and is often diagnosed on emergency hospital admission. Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in primary care is recommended in international guidelines to facilitate timely diagnosis. We aimed to report contemporary trends in NP testing and subsequent HF diagnosis rates over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cohort study using linked primary and secondary care data of adult (≥45 years) patients in England 2004-18 (n = 7 212 013, 48% male) to report trends in NP testing (over time, by age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status) and HF diagnosis rates. NP test rates increased from 0.25 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23-0.26] in 2004 to 16.88 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 16.73-17.03) in 2018, with a significant upward trend in 2010 following publication of national HF guidance. Women and different ethnic groups had similar test rates, and there was more NP testing in older and more socially deprived groups as expected. The HF detection rate was constant over the study period (around 10%) and the proportion of patients without NP testing prior to diagnosis remained high [99.6% (n = 13 484) in 2004 vs. 76.7% (n = 12 978) in 2017]. CONCLUSION: NP testing in primary care has increased over time, with no evidence of significant inequalities, but most patients with HF still do not have an NP test recorded prior to diagnosis. More NP testing in primary care may be needed to prevent hospitalization and facilitate HF diagnosis at an earlier, more treatable stage.

Survival of people with valvular heart disease in a large, English community-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Valvular heart disease (VHD) is present in half the population aged >65 years but is usually mild and of uncertain importance. We investigated the association between VHD and its phenotypes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS: The OxVALVE (Oxford Valvular Heart Disease) population cohort study screened 4009 participants aged >65 years to establish the presence and severity of VHD. We linked data to a national mortality registry and undertook detailed outcome analysis. RESULTS: Mortality data were available for 3511 participants, of whom 361 (10.3%) died (median 6.49 years follow-up). Most had some form of valve abnormality (n=2645, 70.2%). In adjusted analyses, neither mild VHD (prevalence 44.9%) nor clinically significant VHD (moderate or severe stenosis or regurgitation; 5.2%) was associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.51 and HR 1.47, 95% CI 0.94 to 2.31, respectively). Conversely, advanced aortic sclerosis (prevalence 2.25%) and advanced mitral annular calcification (MAC, 1.31%) were associated with an increased risk of death (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.30 and HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.41 to 4.49, respectively). Mortality was highest for people with both clinically significant VHD and advanced aortic sclerosis or MAC (HR 4.38, 95% CI 1.99 to 9.67). CONCLUSIONS: Advanced aortic sclerosis or MAC is associated with a worse outcome, particularly for patients with significant VHD, but also in the absence of other VHD. Older patients with mild VHD can be reassured about their prognosis. The absence of an association between significant VHD and mortality may reflect its relatively low prevalence in our cohort.

Diagnosing heart failure in primary care: individual patient data meta-analysis of two European prospective studies.

AIMS: Natriuretic peptides are helpful in detecting chronic heart failure (HF) in primary care; however, there are a lack of data evaluating thresholds recommended by clinical guidelines. This study assesses the diagnostic accuracy of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) using combined individual patient data from two studies in the UK and the Netherlands. METHODS AND RESULTS: Random effects methods were used to estimate the performance characteristics of NT-proBNP thresholds recommended by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. New onset HF was diagnosed in 313 of 1073 (29.2%) participants. Age, sex, and atrial fibrillation-adjusted NT-proBNP was a better predictor of HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) than HF preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), with area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 95% CI (0.78 to 0.86) vs. 0.71 (0.66 to 0.75). In persons aged 70 years and over, the ESC threshold at 125 ng/L for detection of all-cause HF had summary negative predictive value (NPV) of 84.9% (81.6 to 88.2), positive predictive value (PPV) 68.1% (63.1 to 73.3), sensitivity 74.9% (69.5 to 80.3), and specificity 80.1% (76.9 to 83.4); the NICE threshold at 400 ng/L had summary NPV of 74.7% (72.1 to 77.2), PPV 81.8% (73.3 to 89.5), sensitivity 43.5% (37.2 to 49.8), and specificity 94.5% (92.3 to 96.7). CONCLUSIONS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is better at detecting HFrEF than HFpEF in a primary care setting. In persons aged 70 and over, the ESC threshold of 125 ng/L is more accurate at detecting and excluding HF than the higher level suggested in NICE guidelines. More prospective data are required to establish the optimal NP threshold for detecting chronic HF in general practice.

National trends in heart failure mortality in men and women, United Kingdom, 2000-2017.

AIMS: To understand gender differences in the prognosis of women and men with heart failure, we compared mortality, cause of death and survival trends over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed UK primary care data for 26 725 women and 29 234 men over age 45 years with a new diagnosis of heart failure between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2017 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, inpatient Hospital Episode Statistics and the Office for National Statistics death registry. Age-specific overall survival and cause-specific mortality rates were calculated by gender and year. During the study period 15 084 women and 15 822 men with heart failure died. Women were on average 5 years older at diagnosis (79.6 vs. 74.8 years). Median survival was lower in women compared to men (3.99 vs. 4.47 years), but women had a 14% age-adjusted lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-0.88]. Heart failure was equally likely to be cause of death in women and men (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.96-1.12). There were modest improvements in survival for both genders, but these were greater in men. The reduction in mortality risk in women was greatest for those diagnosed in the community (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.80-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Women are diagnosed with heart failure older than men but have a better age-adjusted prognosis. Survival gains were less in women over the last two decades. Addressing gender differences in heart failure diagnostic and treatment pathways should be a clinical and research priority.

Disability and visual outcomes following suspected abusive head trauma in children under 2 years.

AIM: To report disability and visual outcomes following suspected abusive head trauma (AHT) in children under 2 years. METHODS: We present a retrospective case series (1995-2017) of children with suspected AHT aged ≤24 months. King's Outcome Score of Childhood Head Injury (KOSCHI) was used to assess disability outcomes at hospital discharge and at follow-up. The study used a retinal haemorrhage score (RHS) to record findings at presentation and a visual outcome score at follow-up. RESULTS: We included 44 children (median age 16 weeks). At presentation, 98% had a subdural haemorrhage and 93% had a retinal haemorrhage. At discharge, 61% had moderate-to-severe disability, and 34% a good recovery. A higher RHS was observed in those with more disability (r=-0.54, p=0.0002). At follow-up, 14% had a worse KOSCHI score (p=0.055). 35% children had visual impairment, including 9% with no functional vision. Those with poorer visual function had a higher RHS (r=0.53, p=0.003). 28% attended mainstream school without support; 50% were in foster care or had been adopted, 32% lived with birth mother and 18% with extended family. CONCLUSION: It is known that injuries from suspected AHT result in high levels of morbidity; our cohort showed significant rates of disability and visual impairment. Those with higher disability at discharge and poorer visual function showed more significant retinal changes. The extent of disability was not always apparent at hospital discharge, impacting on provision of prognostic information and targeted follow-up.

A randomised controlled trial of extended anticoagulation treatment versus standard treatment for the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) and post-thrombotic syndrome in patients being treated for a first episode of unprovoked VTE (the ExACT study).

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is prevalent and impactful, with a risk of death, morbidity and recurrence. Post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is a common consequence and associated with impaired quality of life (QoL). The ExACT study was a non-blinded, prospective, multicentred randomised controlled trial comparing extended versus limited duration anticoagulation following a first unprovoked VTE (proximal deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism). Adults were eligible if they had completed ≥3 months anticoagulation (remaining anticoagulated). The primary outcome was time to first recurrent VTE from randomisation. The secondary outcomes included PTS severity, bleeding, QoL and D-dimers. Two-hundred and eighty-one patients were recruited, randomised and followed up for 24 months (mean age 63, male:female 2:1). There was a significant reduction in recurrent VTE for patients receiving extended anticoagulation [2·75 vs. 13·54 events/100 patient years, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0·20 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0·09 to 0·46, P < 0·001)] with a non-significant increase in major bleeding [3·54 vs. 1·18 events/100 patient years, aHR 2·99 (95% CI: 0·81-11·05, P = 0·10)]. Outcomes of PTS and QoL were no different between groups. D-dimer results (on anticoagulation) did not predict VTE recurrence. In conclusion, extended anticoagulation reduced VTE recurrence but did not reduce PTS or improve QoL and was associated with a non-significant increase in bleeding. Results also suggest very limited clinical utility of D-dimer testing on anticoagulated patients.

Effectiveness of a behavioural intervention involving regular weighing and feedback by community midwives within routine antenatal care to prevent excessive gestational weight gain: POPS2 randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of a brief behavioural intervention based on routine antenatal weighing to prevent excessive gestational weight gain (defined by US Institute of Medicine). DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Antenatal clinic in England. PARTICIPANTS: Women between 10+0 and 14+6 weeks gestation, not requiring specialist obstetric care. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised to usual antenatal care or usual care (UC) plus the intervention. The intervention involved community midwives weighing women at antenatal appointments, setting maximum weight gain limits between appointments and providing brief feedback. Women were encouraged to monitor and record their own weight weekly to assess their progress against the maximum limits set by their midwife. The comparator was usual maternity care. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Excessive gestational weight gain, depression, anxiety and physical activity. RESULTS: Six hundred and fifty-six women from four maternity centres were recruited: 329 women were randomised to the intervention group and 327 to UC. We found no evidence that the intervention decreased excessive gestational weight gain. At 38 weeks gestation, the proportions gaining excessive gestational weight were 27.6% (81/305) versus 28.9% (90/311) (adjusted OR 0.84, 95% CI: 0.53 to 1.33) in the intervention and UC group, respectively. There were no significant difference between the groups in anxiety or depression scores (anxiety: adjusted mean -0.58, 95% CI:-1.25 to -0.8; depression: adjusted mean -0.60, 95% CI:-1.24 to -0.05). There were no significant differences in physical activity scores between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: A behavioural intervention delivered by community midwives involving routine weighing throughout pregnancy, setting maximum weight gain targets and encouraging women to weigh themselves each week to check progress did not prevent excessive gestational weight gain. There was no evidence of psychological harm. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN67427351.

Survival of patients with chronic heart failure in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To provide reliable survival estimates for people with chronic heart failure and explain variation in survival by key factors including age at diagnosis, left ventricular ejection fraction, decade of diagnosis, and study setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched in relevant databases from inception to August 2018 for non-interventional studies reporting survival rates for patients with chronic or stable heart failure in any ambulatory setting. Across the 60 included studies, there was survival data for 1.5 million people with heart failure. In our random effects meta-analyses the pooled survival rates at 1 month, 1, 2, 5 and 10 years were 95.7% (95% confidence interval 94.3-96.9), 86.5% (85.4-87.6), 72.6% (67.0-76.6), 56.7% (54.0-59.4) and 34.9% (24.0-46.8), respectively. The 5-year survival rates improved between 1970-1979 and 2000-2009 across healthcare settings, from 29.1% (25.5-32.7) to 59.7% (54.7-64.6). Increasing age at diagnosis was significantly associated with a reduced survival time. Mortality was lowest in studies conducted in secondary care, where there were higher reported prescribing rates of key heart failure medications. There was significant heterogeneity among the included studies in terms of heart failure diagnostic criteria, participant co-morbidities, and treatment rates. CONCLUSION: These results can inform health policy and individual patient advanced care planning. Mortality associated with chronic heart failure remains high despite steady improvements in survival. There remains significant scope to improve prognosis through greater implementation of evidence-based treatments. Further research exploring the barriers and facilitators to treatment is recommended.

Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals.

BACKGROUND: The precise age distribution and calculated stroke risk of screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is not known. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one treatable new AF case (NNS-Rx) (i.e., Class-1 oral anticoagulation [OAC] treatment recommendation) in each age stratum. If the NNS-Rx is known for each age stratum, precise cost-effectiveness and sensitivity simulations can be performed based on the age distribution of the population/region to be screened. Such calculations are required by national authorities and organisations responsible for health system budgets to determine the best age cutoffs for screening programs and decide whether programs of screening should be funded. Therefore, we aimed to determine the exact yield and calculated stroke-risk profile of screen-detected AF and NNS-Rx in 5-year age strata. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of Medline, Pubmed, and Embase was performed (January 2007 to February 2018), and AF-SCREEN international collaboration members were contacted to identify additional studies. Twenty-four eligible studies were identified that performed a single time point screen for AF in a general ambulant population, including people ≥65 years. Authors from eligible studies were invited to collaborate and share patient-level data. Statistical analysis was performed using random effects logistic regression for AF detection rate, and Poisson regression modelling for CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Nineteen studies (14 countries from a mix of low- to middle- and high-income countries) collaborated, with 141,220 participants screened and 1,539 new AF cases. Pooled yield of screening was greater in males across all age strata. The age/sex-adjusted detection rate for screen-detected AF in ≥65-year-olds was 1.44% (95% CI, 1.13%-1.82%) and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.31%-0.53%) for <65-year-olds. New AF detection rate increased progressively with age from 0.34% (<60 years) to 2.73% (≥85 years). Neither the choice of screening methodology or device, the geographical region, nor the screening setting influenced the detection rate of AF. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores (n = 1,369) increased with age from 1.1 (<60 years) to 3.9 (≥85 years); 72% of ≥65 years had ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. All new AF ≥75 years and 66% between 65 and 74 years had a Class-1 OAC recommendation. The NNS-Rx is 83 for ≥65 years, 926 for 60-64 years; and 1,089 for <60 years. The main limitation of this study is there are insufficient data on sociodemographic variables of the populations and possible ascertainment biases to explain the variance in the samples. CONCLUSIONS: People with screen-detected AF are at elevated calculated stroke risk: above age 65, the majority have a Class-1 OAC recommendation for stroke prevention, and >70% have ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. Our data, based on the largest number of screen-detected AF collected to date, show the precise relationship between yield and estimated stroke risk profile with age, and strong dependence for NNS-RX on the age distribution of the population to be screened: essential information for precise cost-effectiveness calculations.

Trends in survival after a diagnosis of heart failure in the United Kingdom 2000-2017: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To report reliable estimates of short term and long term survival rates for people with a diagnosis of heart failure and to assess trends over time by year of diagnosis, hospital admission, and socioeconomic group. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Primary care, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Primary care data for 55 959 patients aged 45 and overwith a new diagnosis of heart failure and 278 679 age and sex matched controls in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2017 and linked to inpatient Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival rates at one, five, and 10 years and cause of death for people with and without heart failure; and temporal trends in survival by year of diagnosis, hospital admission, and socioeconomic group. RESULTS: Overall, one, five, and 10 year survival rates increased by 6.6% (from 74.2% in 2000 to 80.8% in 2016), 7.2% (from 41.0% in 2000 to 48.2% in 2012), and 6.4% (from 19.8% in 2000 to 26.2% in 2007), respectively. There were 30 906 deaths in the heart failure group over the study period. Heart failure was listed on the death certificate in 13 093 (42.4%) of these patients, and in 2237 (7.2%) it was the primary cause of death. Improvement in survival was greater for patients not requiring admission to hospital around the time of diagnosis (median difference 2.4 years; 5.3 v 2.9 years, P<0.001). There was a deprivation gap in median survival of 0.5 years between people who were least deprived and those who were most deprived (4.6 v 4.1 years, P<0.001) [corrected]. CONCLUSIONS: Survival after a diagnosis of heart failure has shown only modest improvement in the 21st century and lags behind other serious conditions, such as cancer. New strategies to achieve timely diagnosis and treatment initiation in primary care for all socioeconomic groups should be a priority for future research and policy.

Survival of patients with chronic heart failure in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a common condition affecting more than 10% of those over 70 years of age. Reliable estimates of survival following a diagnosis of HF are important to guide management and facilitate advanced care planning. Most existing research has focused on survival rates for patients admitted to hospital with acute HF. However, the majority of patients with HF are diagnosed in the outpatient setting and can have periods of sustained symptom stability in the chronic phase of their illness. There has not been a systematic review of the literature to determine the prognosis of patients with chronic HF in the community. METHODS: We will undertake a comprehensive search of the following databases: CINAHL, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Embase, MEDLINE and the Clinical Trials Register ( clinicaltrials.gov ). Two reviewers will independently complete screening, data extraction and quality appraisal with the option of input from a third reviewer to arbitrate. We will include data from observational or database studies conducted in either community or outpatient settings. Studies of acute HF or specific subgroups of patients will be excluded. There is no restriction by geographical setting, publication language or study date. We will complete QUIPS and GRADE assessments to systematically appraise the quality of evidence within and between studies. Where possible, we will seek to pool results to conduct a meta-analysis and undertake relevant subgroup analysis including by study setting, participant age and study decade. The primary outcome will be survival time from diagnosis. The secondary outcomes will be HF-related hospital admissions, symptom burden and measures of morbidity. DISCUSSION: This systematic review will provide up to date evidence on the current survival rates and prognostic indicators for patients with chronic HF. We will put this into historical perspective, comparing outcomes across time to help understand the impact of advances in evidence-based treatment on average survival. This information is important in facilitating informed decision-making for patients and health professionals as well as highlighting areas to focus resources and improve public health planning. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO 2017 CRD42017075680.