Recent and projected changes in global climate may increase nicotine absorption and the risk of green tobacco sickness.

BACKGROUND: Dermal transfer of nicotine during tobacco harvest can cause green tobacco sickness (GTS), characterized by nausea, vomiting, headache and dizziness. Rainfall and high temperatures are etiological factors known to increase the prevalence of GTS. We analyzed recent and projected trends in these factors for major tobacco-growing regions to assess potential exacerbation in GTS occurrence. METHODS: We analyzed climate parameters, including recent trends (since the 1970s) in temperature and precipitation metrics during the tobacco harvest period for Southern Brazil; Yunnan Province, China; Andhra State, India; and North Carolina, USA. We applied Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based scenarios for Tier 1 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), (SSPs of 1-2.6, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 from 2020 to 2100). Established protocol for nicotine dermal patches and temperature were used as a proxy to estimate potential nicotine absorption. RESULTS: For three locations, cumulative maximum temperatures during harvest and temperature extremes rose significantly since the 1970s as did cumulative rainfall during harvest. Projected maximum temperatures at SSP 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 projections through 2100 did increase for all locations. Estimates of nicotine skin absorption with rising temperature show significant increases for both recent changes in three locations, and for all locations for SSP projections of 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 from 2020 to 2100. CONCLUSIONS: This study across multiple continents, highlights a potential link between recent and projected anthropogenic change and potential increases in GTS risk. Under SSP 5-8.5, nicotine absorption could increase by ~50% by the end of the century, which may have widespread impacts on the incidence of GTS, especially among younger tobacco workers.

Transfer of nicotine from tobacco leaves to the skin can result in a type of poisoning called green tobacco sickness (GTS) for field workers who harvest tobacco. Transfer is linked to temperature and rainfall, which are both impacted by global climate change. We examined recent (from 1970-present) and projected future (present to 2100) changes in these measures for four global locations where tobacco is grown. North Carolina, Brazil, China and India all show an increase in average maximum temperatures or rainfall since the 1970s. We find that recent or future changes in the climate are associated with an increased likelihood of skin absorption of nicotine. This study, across multiple continents, highlights a potential link between climate change that could increase the risk of GTS for tobacco workers.

A tale of two blooms: do ecological paradigms for algal bloom success and succession require revisiting?

Lake Erie algal bloom discussions have historically focused on cyanobacteria, with foundational "blooms like it hot" and "high nutrient" paradigms considered as primary drivers behind cyanobacterial bloom success. Yet, recent surveys have rediscovered winter-spring diatom blooms, introducing another key player in the Lake Erie eutrophication and algal bloom story which has been historically overlooked. These blooms (summer vs. winter) have been treated as solitary events separated by spatial and temporal gradients. However, new evidence suggests they may not be so isolated, linked in a manner that manifests as an algal bloom cycle. Equally notable are the emerging reports of cyanobacterial blooms in cold and/or oligotrophic freshwaters, which have been interpreted by some as shifts in classical bloom paradigms. These emerging bloom reports have led many to ask "what is a bloom?". Furthermore, questioning classic paradigms has caused others to wonder if we are overlooking additional factors which constrain bloom success. In light of emerging data and ideas, we revisited foundational concepts within the context of Lake Erie algal blooms and derived five key take-aways: 1) Additional bloom-formers (diatoms) need to be included in Lake Erie algal discussions, 2) The term "bloom" must be reinforced with a clear definition and quantitative metrics for each event, 3) Algal blooms should not be studied solitarily, 4) Shifts in physiochemical conditions serve as an alternative interpretation to potential shifts in ecological paradigms, 5) Additional factors which constrain bloom success and succession (i.e., pH and light) require consideration.

Daily temperature variability and mental health-related hospital visits in New York State.

BACKGROUND: Despite plausible behavioral and physiological pathways, limited evidence exists on how daily temperature variability is associated with acute mental health-related episodes. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to explore associations between daily temperature range (DTR) and mental health-related hospital visits using data of all hospital records in New York State during 1995-2014. We further examined factors that may modify these associations, including age, sex, hospital visit type and season. METHODS: Using a case-crossover design with distributed lag non-linear DTR terms (0-6 days), we estimated associations between ZIP Code-level DTR and hospital visits for mood (4.6 million hospital visits), anxiety (2.4 million), adjustment (∼368,000), and schizophrenia disorders (∼211,000), controlling for daily mean temperature, via conditional logistic regression models. We assessed potential heterogeneity by age, sex, hospital visit type (in-patient vs. out-patient), and season (summer, winter, and transition seasons). RESULTS: For all included outcomes, we observed positive associations from period minimum DTR (0.1 °C) until 25th percentile (5.2 °C) and between mean DTR (7.7 °C) and 90th percentile (12.2 °C), beyond which we observed negative associations. For mood disorders, an increase in DTR from 0.1 °C to 12.2 °C was associated with a cumulative 16.0% increase (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8, 19.2%) in hospital visit rates. This increase was highest during transition seasons (32.5%; 95%CI: 26.4, 39.0%) compared with summer (10.7%; 95%CI: 4.8, 16.8%) and winter (-1.6%; 95%CI: -7.6, 4.7%). For adjustment and schizophrenia disorders, the strongest associations were seen among the youngest group (0-24 years) with almost no association in the oldest group (65+ years). We observed no evidence for modification by sex and hospital visit type. DISCUSSION: Daily temperature variability was positively associated with mental health-related hospital visits within specific DTR ranges in New York State, after controlling for daily mean temperature. Given uncertainty on how climate change modifies temperature variability, additional research is crucial to comprehend the implications of these findings, particularly under different scenarios of future temperature variability.

Declines in ice cover are accompanied by light limitation responses and community change in freshwater diatoms.

The rediscovery of diatom blooms embedded within and beneath the Lake Erie ice cover (2007-2012) ignited interest in psychrophilic adaptations and winter limnology. Subsequent studies determined the vital role ice plays in winter diatom ecophysiology as diatoms partition to the underside of ice, thereby fixing their location within the photic zone. Yet, climate change has led to widespread ice decline across the Great Lakes, with Lake Erie presenting a nearly "ice-free" state in several recent winters. It has been hypothesized that the resultant turbid, isothermal water column induces light limitation amongst winter diatoms and thus serves as a competitive disadvantage. To investigate this hypothesis, we conducted a physiochemical and metatranscriptomic survey that spanned spatial, temporal, and climatic gradients of the winter Lake Erie water column (2019-2020). Our results suggest that ice-free conditions decreased planktonic diatom bloom magnitude and altered diatom community composition. Diatoms increased their expression of various photosynthetic genes and iron transporters, which suggests that the diatoms are attempting to increase their quantity of photosystems and light-harvesting components (a well-defined indicator of light limitation). We identified two gene families which serve to increase diatom fitness in the turbid ice-free water column: proton-pumping rhodopsins (a potential second means of light-driven energy acquisition) and fasciclins (a means to "raft" together to increase buoyancy and co-locate to the surface to optimize light acquisition). With large-scale climatic changes already underway, our observations provide insight into how diatoms respond to the dynamic ice conditions of today and shed light on how they will fare in a climatically altered tomorrow.

Comparing Approximated Heat Stress Measures Across the United States.

Climate change is escalating the threat of heat stress to global public health, with the majority of humans today facing increasingly severe and prolonged heat waves. Accurate weather data reflecting the complexity of measuring heat stress is crucial for reducing the impact of extreme heat on health worldwide. Previous studies have employed Heat Index (HI) and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) metrics to understand extreme heat exposure, forming the basis for heat stress guidelines. However, systematic comparisons of meteorological and climate data sets used for these metrics and the related parameters, like air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation crucial for human thermoregulation, are lacking. We compared three heat measures (HImax, WBGTBernard, and WBGTLiljegren) approximated from gridded weather data sets (ERA5-Land, PRISM, Daymet) with ground-based data, revealing strong agreement from HI and WBGTBernard (R 2 0.76-0.95, RMSE 1.69-6.64°C). Discrepancies varied by Köppen-Geiger climates (e.g., Adjusted R 2 HImax 0.88-0.95, WBGTBernard 0.79-0.97, and WBGTLiljegren 0.80-0.96), and metrological input variables (Adjusted R 2 T max 0.86-0.94, T min 0.91-0.94, Wind 0.33, Solarmax 0.38, Solaravg 0.38, relative humidity 0.51-0.74). Gridded data sets can offer reliable heat exposure assessment, but further research and local networks are vital to reduce measurement errors to fully enhance our understanding of how heat stress measures link to health outcomes.

Microcystin aids in cold temperature acclimation: Differences between a toxic Microcystis wildtype and non-toxic mutant.

For Microcystis aeruginosa PCC 7806, temperature decreases from 26 °C to 19 °C double the microcystin quota per cell during growth in continuous culture. Here we tested whether this increase in microcystin provided M. aeruginosa PCC 7806 with a fitness advantage during colder-temperature growth by comparing cell concentration, cellular physiology, reactive oxygen species damage, and the transcriptomics-inferred metabolism to a non-toxigenic mutant strain M. aeruginosa PCC 7806 ΔmcyB. Photo-physiological data combined with transcriptomic data revealed metabolic changes in the mutant strain during growth at 19 °C, which included increased electron sinks and non-photochemical quenching. Increased gene expression was observed for a glutathione-dependent peroxiredoxin during cold treatment, suggesting compensatory mechanisms to defend against reactive oxygen species are employed in the absence of microcystin in the mutant. Our observations highlight the potential selective advantages of a longer-term defensive strategy in management of oxidative stress (i.e., making microcystin) vs the shorter-term proactive strategy of producing cellular components to actively dissipate or degrade oxidative stress agents.

The association between temperature and alcohol- and substance-related disorder hospital visits in New York State.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on how temperature increases are associated with hospital visits from alcohol- and substance-related disorders, despite plausible behavioral and physiological pathways. METHODS: In the present study, we implemented a case-crossover design, which controls for seasonal patterns, long-term trends, and non- or slowly-varying confounders, with distributed lag non-linear temperature terms (0-6 days) to estimate associations between daily ZIP Code-level temperature and alcohol- and substance-related disorder hospital visit rates in New York State during 1995-2014. We also examined four substance-related disorder sub-causes (cannabis, cocaine, opioid, sedatives). RESULTS: Here we show that, for alcohol-related disorders, a daily increase in temperature from the daily minimum (-30.1 °C (-22.2 °F)) to the 75th percentile (18.8 °C (65.8 °F)) across 0-6 lag days is associated with a cumulative 24.6% (95%CI,14.6%-34.6%) increase in hospital visit rates, largely driven by increases on the day of and day before hospital visit, with an association larger outside New York City. For substance-related disorders, we find evidence of a positive association at temperatures from the daily minimum (-30.1 °C (-22.2 °F)) to the 50th percentile (10.4 °C (50.7 °F)) (37.7% (95%CI,27.2%-48.2%), but not at higher temperatures. Findings are consistent across age group, sex, and social vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS: Our work highlights how hospital visits from alcohol- and substance-related disorders are currently impacted by elevated temperatures and could be further affected by rising temperatures resulting from climate change. Enhanced social infrastructure and health system interventions could mitigate these impacts.

We investigated the relationship between temperature and hospital visits related to alcohol and other drugs including cannabis, cocaine, opioids, and sedatives in New York State. We found that higher temperatures resulted in more hospital visits for alcohol. For other drugs, higher temperatures also resulted in more hospital visits but only up to a certain temperature level. Our findings suggest that rising temperatures, including those caused by climate change, may influence hospital visits for alcohol and other drugs, emphasizing the need for appropriate and proportionate social and health interventions, as well as highlighting potential hidden burdens of climate change.

Cool temperature acclimation in toxigenic Microcystis aeruginosa PCC 7806 and its non-toxigenic mutant.

For Microcystis aeruginosa PCC 7806, temperature decreases from 26° C to 19° C double the microcystin quota per cell during growth in continuous culture. Here we tested whether this increase in microcystin provided M. aeruginosa PCC 7806 with a fitness advantage during colder-temperature growth by comparing cell concentration, cellular physiology, and the transcriptomics-inferred metabolism to a non-toxigenic mutant strain M. aeruginosa PCC 7806 ΔmcyB. Photo-physiological data combined with transcriptomic data revealed metabolic changes in the mutant strain during growth at 19° C, which included increased electron sinks and non-photochemical quenching. Increased gene expression was observed for a glutathione-dependent peroxiredoxin during cold treatment, suggesting compensatory mechanisms to defend against reactive oxygen species are employed in the absence of microcystin in the mutant. Our observations highlight the potential selective advantages of a longer-term defensive strategy in management of oxidative stress (i.e., making microcystin) vs the shorter-term proactive strategy of producing cellular components to actively dissipate or degrade oxidative stress agents.

Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States.

Knowledge of excess deaths after tropical cyclones is critical to understanding their impacts, directly relevant to policies on preparedness and mitigation. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to 40.7 million U.S. deaths and a comprehensive record of 179 tropical cyclones over 32 years (1988-2019) to estimate short-term all-cause excess deaths. The deadliest tropical cyclone was Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with 1491 [95% credible interval (CrI): 563, 3206] excess deaths (>99% posterior probability of excess deaths), including 719 [95% CrI: 685, 752] in Orleans Parish, LA (>99% probability). Where posterior probabilities of excess deaths were >95%, there were 3112 [95% CrI: 2451, 3699] total post-hurricane force excess deaths and 15,590 [95% CrI: 12,084, 18,835] post-gale to violent storm force deaths; 83.1% of post-hurricane force and 70.0% of post-gale to violent storm force excess deaths occurred more recently (2004-2019); and 6.2% were in least socially vulnerable counties.

Word embeddings reveal growing moral concern for people, animals and the environment.

The Enlightenment idea of historical moral progress asserts that civil societies become more moral over time. This is often understood as an expanding moral circle and is argued to be tightly linked with language use, with some suggesting that shifts in how we express concern for others can be considered an important indicator of moral progress. Our research explores these notions by examining historical trends in natural language use during the 19th and 20th centuries. We found that the associations between words denoting moral concern and words referring to people, animals, and the environment grew stronger over time. The findings support widely-held views about the nature of moral progress by showing that language has changed in a way that reflects greater concern for others.

Carbon Monitor Europe near-real-time daily CO2 emissions for 27 EU countries and the United Kingdom.

With the urgent need to implement the EU countries pledges and to monitor the effectiveness of Green Deal plan, Monitoring Reporting and Verification tools are needed to track how emissions are changing for all the sectors. Current official inventories only provide annual estimates of national CO2 emissions with a lag of 1+ year which do not capture the variations of emissions due to recent shocks including COVID lockdowns and economic rebounds, war in Ukraine. Here we present a near-real-time country-level dataset of daily fossil fuel and cement emissions from January 2019 through December 2021 for 27 EU countries and UK, which called Carbon Monitor Europe. The data are calculated separately for six sectors: power, industry, ground transportation, domestic aviation, international aviation and residential. Daily CO2 emissions are estimated from a large set of activity data compiled from different sources. The goal of this dataset is to improve the timeliness and temporal resolution of emissions for European countries, to inform the public and decision makers about current emissions changes in Europe.

Exploring Relevant Time Windows in the Association Between PM2.5 Exposure and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Case-Control Study in Denmark.

Studies suggest a link between particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but to our knowledge critical exposure windows have not been examined. We performed a case-control study in the Danish population spanning the years 1989-2013. Cases were selected from the Danish National Patient Registry based on International Classification of Diseases codes. Five controls were randomly selected from the Danish Civil Registry and matched to a case on vital status, age, and sex. PM2.5 concentration at residential addresses was assigned using monthly predictions from a dispersion model. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for confounding. We evaluated exposure to averaged PM2.5 concentrations 12-24 months, 2-6 years, and 2-11 years pre-ALS diagnosis; annual lagged exposures up to 11 years prediagnosis; and cumulative associations for exposure in lags 1-5 years and 1-10 years prediagnosis, allowing for varying association estimates by year. We identified 3,983 cases and 19,915 controls. Cumulative exposure to PM2.5 in the period 2-6 years prediagnosis was associated with ALS (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.13). Exposures in the second, third, and fourth years prediagnosis were individually associated with higher odds of ALS (e.g., for lag 1, OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.08). Exposure to PM2.5 within 6 years before diagnosis may represent a critical exposure window for ALS.

Excess Injury Mortality in Washington State During the 2021 Heat Wave.

PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS: Under global warming scenarios, heat waves of this magnitude will become much more common. Adaptation and planning efforts are needed to protect residents of the historically temperate Pacific Northwest for a range of health outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(6):657-660. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307269).

Are we smart enough to remember how smart animals are?

Some theoretical perspectives suggest people overestimate animals' mental capacities (anthropomorphism), while others suggest the reverse (mind-denial). However, studies have generally not employed objective criteria against which the accuracy or appropriateness of people's judgments about animals can be tested. We employed memory paradigms, in which judgments are clearly right or wrong, in nine experiments (eight preregistered; n = 3,162). When tested shortly after exposure, meat-eaters' memory about companion animals (e.g., dogs) but not food animals (e.g., pigs) showed an anthropomorphic bias: they remembered more information consistent with animals having versus lacking a mind (Experiments 1-4). Vegetarians' and vegans' memory, on the other hand, consistently showed an anthropomorphic bias regarding food and companion animals alike (Experiments 5 and 6). When tested a week after exposure, both those who eat meat and those who do not showed signs of shifting toward a mind-denying bias (Experiments 2, 3, and 6). These biases had important consequences for beliefs about animal minds. Inducing mind-denying memory biases caused participants to see animals as possessing less sophisticated minds (Experiments 7-9). The work demonstrates that memories concerning animals' minds can depart predictably from reality and that such departures can contribute to biased evaluations of their mental capacities. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Does Belief in Conspiracy Theories Affect Interpersonal Relationships?

In recent years, researchers have begun to study the social consequences of conspiracy beliefs. However, little research has investigated the impact of conspiracy beliefs on interpersonal relationships. In this review, we draw attention to this issue by summarizing available empirical evidence and proposing potential social-psychological mechanisms to explain whether and why conspiracy theories affect interpersonal relationships. We firstly discuss that the attitude change that often accompanies the internalization of conspiracy beliefs might distance people's opinions and, consequently, erode their relationships. Furthermore, we argue that the stigmatizing value of conspiracy theories can negatively affect the evaluation of conspiracy believers and discourage others from getting close to them. Finally, we consider that the misperception of social norms associated with the acceptance of certain conspiracy narratives can lead conspiracy believers to engage in non-normative behavior. Others are likely to perceive such behavior negatively, resulting in diminished interpersonal interaction. We highlight the need for further research to address these issues, as well as the potential factors that may prevent relationships being eroded by conspiracy beliefs.

Does Belief in Conspiracy Theories Affect Interpersonal Relationships?

In recent years, researchers have begun to study the social consequences of conspiracy beliefs. However, little research has investigated the impact of conspiracy beliefs on interpersonal relationships. In this review, we draw attention to this issue by summarizing available empirical evidence and proposing potential social-psychological mechanisms to explain whether and why conspiracy theories affect interpersonal relationships. We firstly discuss that the attitude change that often accompanies the internalization of conspiracy beliefs might distance people’s opinions and, consequently, erode their relationships. Furthermore, we argue that the stigmatizing value of conspiracy theories can negatively affect the evaluation of conspiracy believers and discourage others from getting close to them. Finally, we consider that the misperception of social norms associated with the acceptance of certain conspiracy narratives can lead conspiracy believers to engage in non-normative behavior. Others are likely to perceive such behavior negatively, resulting in diminished interpersonal interaction. We highlight the need for further research to address these issues, as well as the potential factors that may prevent relationships being eroded by conspiracy beliefs. (AU)

National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850.

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period and are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest in tracking and apportioning national contributions to climate change and informing equitable commitments to decarbonisation. Here, we introduce a new dataset of national contributions to global warming caused by historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide during the years 1851-2021, which are consistent with the latest findings of the IPCC. We calculate the global mean surface temperature response to historical emissions of the three gases, including recent refinements which account for the short atmospheric lifetime of CH4. We report national contributions to global warming resulting from emissions of each gas, including a disaggregation to fossil and land use sectors. This dataset will be updated annually as national emissions datasets are updated.