Do Public Health Efforts Matter? Explaining Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Excess Death During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a devastating toll around the world. Since January 2020, the World Health Organization estimates 14.9 million excess deaths have occurred globally. Despite this grim number quantifying the deadly impact, the underlying factors contributing to COVID-19 deaths at the population level remain unclear. Prior studies indicate that demographic factors like proportion of population older than 65 and population health explain the cross-country difference in COVID-19 deaths. However, there has not been a holistic analysis including variables describing government policies and COVID-19 vaccination rate. Furthermore, prior studies focus on COVID-19 death rather than excess death to assess the impact of the pandemic. Through a robust statistical modeling framework, we analyze 80 countries and show that actionable public health efforts beyond just the factors intrinsic to each country are necessary to explain the cross-country heterogeneity in excess death.

An Open Repository of Real-Time COVID-19 Indicators

The COVID-19 pandemic presented enormous data challenges in the United States. Policy makers, epidemiological modelers, and health researchers all require up-to-date data on the pandemic and relevant public behavior, ideally at fine spatial and temporal resolution. The COVIDcast API is our attempt to fill this need: operational since April 2020, it provides open access to both traditional public health surveillance signals (cases, deaths, and hospitalizations) and many auxiliary indicators of COVID-19 activity, such as signals extracted from de-identified medical claims data, massive online surveys, cell phone mobility data, and internet search trends. These are available at a fine geographic resolution (mostly at the county level) and are updated daily. The COVIDcast API also tracks all revisions to historical data, allowing modelers to account for the frequent revisions and backfill that are common for many public health data sources. All of the data is available in a common format through the API and accompanying R and Python software packages. This paper describes the data sources and signals, and provides examples demonstrating that the auxiliary signals in the COVIDcast API present information relevant to tracking COVID activity, augmenting traditional public health reporting and empowering research and decision-making.

Can Auxiliary Indicators Improve COVID-19 Forecasting and Hotspot Prediction?

Short-term forecasts of traditional streams from public health reporting (such as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) are a key input to public health decision-making during a pandemic. Since early 2020, our research group has worked with data partners to collect, curate, and make publicly available numerous real-time COVID-19 indicators, providing multiple views of pandemic activity in the U.S. This paper studies the utility of five such indicators--derived from de-identified medical insurance claims, self-reported symptoms from online surveys, and COVID-related Google search activity--from a forecasting perspective. For each indicator, we ask whether its inclusion in an autoregressive (AR) model leads to improved predictive accuracy relative to the same model excluding it. Such an AR model, without external features, is already competitive with many top COVID-19 forecasting models in use today. Our analysis reveals that (a) inclusion of each of these five indicators improves on the overall predictive accuracy of the AR model; (b) predictive gains are in general most pronounced during times in which COVID cases are trending in "flat" or "down" directions; (c) one indicator, based on Google searches, seems to be particularly helpful during "up" trends.

Rapid Screening of COVID-19 Disease Directly from Clinical Nasopharyngeal Swabs using the MasSpec Pen Technology

The outbreak of COVID-19 has created an unprecedent global crisis. While PCR is the gold standard method for detecting active SARS-CoV-2 infection, alternative high-throughput diagnostic tests are of significant value to meet universal testing demands. Here, we describe a new design of the MasSpec Pen technology integrated to electrospray ionization (ESI) for direct analysis of clinical swabs and investigate its use for COVID-19 screening. The redesigned MasSpec Pen system incorporates a disposable sampling device refined for uniform and efficient analysis of swab tips via liquid extraction directly coupled to a ESI source. Using this system, we analyzed nasopharyngeal swabs from 244 individuals including symptomatic COVID-19 positive, symptomatic negative, and asymptomatic negative individuals, enabling rapid detection of rich lipid profiles. Two statistical classifiers were generated based on the lipid information aquired. Classifier 1 was built to distinguish symptomatic PCR-positive from asymptomatic PCR-negative individuals, yielding cross-validation accuracy of 83.5%, sensitivity of 76.6%, and specificity of 86.6%, and validation set accuracy of 89.6%, sensitivity of 100%, and specificity of 85.3%. Classifier 2 was built to distinguish symptomatic PCR-positive patients from negative individuals including symptomatic PCR-negative patients with moderate to severe symptoms and asymptomatic individuals, yielding a cross-validation accuracy of 78.4% accuracy, specificity of 77.21%, and sensitivity of 81.8%. Collectively, this study suggests that the lipid profiles detected directly from nasopharyngeal swabs using MasSpec Pen-ESI MS allows fast (under a minute) screening of COVID-19 disease using minimal operating steps and no specialized reagents, thus representing a promising alternative high-throughput method for screening of COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses Correlate with Resolution of RNAemia But Are Short-Lived in Patients with Mild Illness

SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies, particularly those preventing viral spike receptor binding domain (RBD) interaction with host angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, could offer protective immunity, and may affect clinical outcomes of COVID-19 patients. We analyzed 625 serial plasma samples from 40 hospitalized COVID-19 patients and 170 SARS-CoV-2-infected outpatients and asymptomatic individuals. Severely ill patients developed significantly higher SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody responses than outpatients and asymptomatic individuals. The development of plasma antibodies was correlated with decreases in viral RNAemia, consistent with potential humoral immune clearance of virus. Using a novel competition ELISA, we detected antibodies blocking RBD-ACE2 interactions in 68% of inpatients and 40% of outpatients tested. Cross-reactive antibodies recognizing SARS-CoV RBD were found almost exclusively in hospitalized patients. Outpatient and asymptomatic individuals serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 decreased within 2 months, suggesting that humoral protection may be short-lived.

Modeling COVID19 mortality in the US: Community context and mobility matter

The United States has become an epicenter for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, communities have been unequally affected and evidence is growing that social determinants of health may be exacerbating the pandemic. Furthermore, the impact and timing of social distancing at the community level have yet to be fully explored. We investigated the relative associations between COVID-19 mortality and social distancing, sociodemographic makeup, economic vulnerabilities, and comorbidities in 24 counties surrounding 7 major metropolitan areas in the US using a flexible and robust time series modeling approach. We found that counties with poorer health and less wealth were associated with higher daily mortality rates compared to counties with fewer economic vulnerabilities and fewer pre-existing health conditions. Declines in mobility were associated with up to 15% lower mortality rates relative to pre-social distancing levels of mobility, but effects were lagged between 25-30 days. While we cannot estimate causal impact, this study provides insight into the association of social distancing on community mortality while accounting for key community factors. For full transparency and reproducibility, we provide all data and code used in this study. One-sentence summaryCounty-level disparities in COVID19 mortality highlight inequalities in socioeconomic and community factors and delayed effects of social distancing.