Next-gen regional fire risk mapping: Integrating hyperspectral imagery and National Forest Inventory data to identify hot-spot wildland-urban interfaces.

The increasing threat of high-severity wildfires in Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas demands to develop effective fire risk assessment and management strategies. Simultaneously, the newfound accessibility of spaceborne hyperspectral data represents a significant potential for generating fire severity assessments, whereas National Forest Inventories (NFI) offer a vast dataset related to vegetation and fuel loads, which is essential for shaping the planning and strategies of forest services. This research work aims to advance the state-of-the-art in WUI fire risk mapping in the western Mediterranean Basin by combining PRISMA spaceborne hyperspectral data and Spanish NFI data. The proposed methodology had three main stages: (i) fire severity assessment at local scale (a wildfire) by using PRISMA hyperspectral data and Multi-Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) leveraging field-based measurements of the Composite Burn Index (70 plots); (ii) development of a high fire severity probability map at regional scale from the extrapolation of a Random Forest predictive model calibrated from fire severity estimates, NFI data and topo-climatic variables at local scale (overall accuracy = 92 %; Kappa = 0.8); and (iii) identification and characterization of zones that concentrate WUIs with high probability of high fire severity if a fire event occurs (hot-spot WUIs) by crossing the information from the previous regional high fire severity probability map and a WUI cartography developed at regional scale. Study area was Castilla y León Autonomous Region (larger Spanish region, 94,226 km2), where the second-largest extreme Spanish wildfire event (28,000 ha) occurred. We identified hot-spot WUIs so that stakeholders and decision-makers could (i) prioritize resources and interventions for effective fire management and mitigation, (ii) allocate resources for prevention, and (iii) plan evacuation measures to safeguard lives and property. This study contributes to the development of next-generation fire risk assessment methods that combine remote sensing technologies with comprehensive ground-level datasets.

Preventing tuberculosis with community-based care in an HIV-endemic setting: a modelling analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) both prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease and deaths among people living with HIV. Differentiated care models, including community-based care, can increase the uptake of ART and TPT to prevent TB in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB, particularly among men. METHODS: We developed a gender-stratified dynamic model of TB and HIV transmission and disease progression among 100,000 adults ages 15-59 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We drew model parameters from a community-based ART initiation and resupply trial in sub-Saharan Africa (Delivery Optimization for Antiretroviral Therapy, DO ART) and other scientific literature. We simulated the impacts of community-based ART and TPT care programmes during 2018-2027, assuming that community-based ART and TPT care were scaled up to similar levels as in the DO ART trial (i.e. ART coverage increasing from 49% to 82% among men and from 69% to 83% among women) and sustained for 10 years. We projected the number of TB cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted relative to standard, clinic-based care. We calculated programme costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the provider perspective. RESULTS: If community-based ART care could be implemented with similar effectiveness to the DO ART trial, increased ART coverage could reduce TB incidence by 27.0% (range 21.3%-34.1%) and TB mortality by 34.6% (range 24.8%-42.2%) after 10 years. Increasing both ART and TPT uptake through community-based ART with TPT care could reduce TB incidence by 29.7% (range 23.9%-36.0%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9%-43.8%). Community-based ART with TPT care reduced gender disparities in TB mortality rates, with a projected 54 more deaths annually among men than women (range 11-103) after 10 years of community-based care versus 109 (range 41-182) in standard care. Over 10 years, the mean cost per DALY averted by community-based ART with TPT care was $846 USD (range $709-$1012). CONCLUSIONS: By substantially increasing coverage of ART and TPT, community-based care for people living with HIV could reduce TB incidence and mortality in settings with high burdens of HIV-associated TB and reduce TB gender disparities.

Impact of HIV self-testing for oral pre-exposure prophylaxis scale-up on drug resistance and HIV outcomes in western Kenya: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Community-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision has the potential to expand PrEP coverage. HIV self-testing can facilitate PrEP community-based delivery but might have lower sensitivity than facility-based HIV testing, potentially leading to inappropriate PrEP use among people with HIV and subsequent development of drug resistance. We aimed to evaluate the impact of HIV self-testing use for PrEP scale-up. METHODS: We parameterised an agent-based network model, EMOD-HIV, to simulate generic tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine PrEP scale-up in western Kenya using four testing scenarios: provider-administered nucleic acid testing, provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests detecting antibodies, blood-based HIV self-testing, or oral fluid HIV self-testing. Scenarios were compared with a no PrEP counterfactual. Individuals aged 18-49 years with one or more heterosexual partners who screened HIV-negative were eligible for PrEP. We assessed the cost and health impact of rapid PrEP scale-up with high coverage over 20 years, and the budget impact over 5 years, using various HIV testing modalities. FINDINGS: PrEP coverage of 29% was projected to avert approximately 54% of HIV infections and 17% of HIV-related deaths among adults aged 18-49 years over 20 years; health impacts were similar across HIV testing modalities used to deliver PrEP. The percentage of HIV infections with PrEP-associated nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) drug resistance was 0·6% (95% uncertainty intervals 0·4-0·9) in the blood HIV self-testing scenario and 0·8% (0·6-1·0) in the oral HIV self-testing scenario, compared with 0·3% (0·2-0·3) in the antibody rapid diagnostic testing scenario and 0·2% (0·1-0·2) in the nucleic acid testing scenario. Accounting for background NRTI resistance, we found similarly low proportions of drug resistance across scenarios. The budget impact of implementing PrEP using HIV self-testing and provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests were similar, while nucleic acid testing was approximately 50% more costly. INTERPRETATION: Scaling up PrEP using HIV self-testing has similar health impacts, costs, and low risk of drug resistance as provider-administered rapid diagnostic tests. Policy makers should consider leveraging HIV self-testing to expand PrEP access among those at HIV risk. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population health impact, cost-effectiveness, and affordability of community-based HIV treatment and monitoring in South Africa: A health economics modelling study.

Community-based delivery and monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV has the potential to increase viral suppression for individual- and population-level health benefits. However, the cost-effectiveness and budget impact are needed for public health policy. We used a mathematical model of HIV transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to estimate population prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2060 for two scenarios: 1) standard clinic-based HIV care and 2) five-yearly home testing campaigns with community ART for people not reached by clinic-based care. We parameterised model scenarios using observed community-based ART efficacy. Using a health system perspective, we evaluated incremental cost-effectiveness and net health benefits using a threshold of $750/DALY averted. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied the discount rate; time horizon; costs for clinic and community ART, hospitalisation, and testing; and the proportion of the population receiving community ART. Uncertainty ranges (URs) were estimated across 25 best-fitting parameter sets. By 2060, community ART following home testing averted 27.9% (UR: 24.3-31.5) of incident HIV infections, 27.8% (26.8-28.8) of HIV-related deaths, and 18.7% (17.9-19.7) of DALYs compared to standard of care. Adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years experienced the greatest reduction in incident HIV (30.7%, 27.1-34.7). In the first five years (2020-2024), community ART required an additional $44.9 million (35.8-50.1) annually, representing 14.3% (11.4-16.0) of the annual HIV budget. The cost per DALY averted was $102 (85-117) for community ART compared with standard of care. Providing six-monthly refills instead of quarterly refills further increased cost-effectiveness to $78.5 per DALY averted (62.9-92.8). Cost-effectiveness was robust to sensitivity analyses. In a high-prevalence setting, scale-up of decentralised ART dispensing and monitoring can provide large population health benefits and is cost-effective in preventing death and disability due to HIV.

Preventing tuberculosis with community-based care in an HIV-endemic setting: a modeling analysis.

Introduction: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and TB preventive treatment (TPT) both prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease and deaths among people living with HIV. Differentiated care models, including community-based care, can increase uptake of ART and TPT to prevent TB in settings with a high burden of HIV-associated TB, particularly among men. Methods: We developed a gender-stratified dynamic model of TB and HIV transmission and disease progression among 100,000 adults ages 15-59 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We drew model parameters from a community-based ART initiation and resupply trial in sub-Saharan Africa (Delivery Optimization for Antiretroviral Therapy, DO ART) and other scientific literature. We simulated the impacts of community-based ART and TPT care programs during 2018-2027, assuming that community-based ART and TPT care were scaled up to similar levels as in the DO ART trial (i.e., ART coverage increasing from 49% to 82% among men and from 69% to 83% among women) and sustained for ten years. We projected the number of TB cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted relative to standard, clinic-based care. We calculated program costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the provider perspective. Results: If community-based ART care could be implemented with similar effectiveness to the DO ART trial, increased ART coverage could reduce TB incidence by 27.0% (range 21.3% - 34.1%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9% - 43.8%) after ten years. Increasing both ART and TPT uptake through community-based ART with TPT care could reduce TB incidence by 29.7% (range 23.9% - 36.0%) and TB mortality by 36.0% (range 26.9% - 43.8%). Community-based ART with TPT care reduced gender disparities in TB mortality rates by reducing TB mortality among men by a projected 39.8% (range 32.2% - 46.3%) and by 30.9% (range 25.3% - 36.5%) among women. Over ten years, the mean cost per DALY averted by community-based ART with TPT care was $846 USD (range $709 - $1,012). Conclusions: By substantially increasing coverage of ART and TPT, community-based care for people living with HIV could reduce TB incidence and mortality in settings with high burdens of HIV-associated TB and reduce TB gender disparities.

Longitudinal Changes in Cerebral Perfusion, Perivascular Space Volume, and Ventricular Volume in a Healthy Cohort Undergoing a Spaceflight Analog.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A global decrease in brain perfusion has recently been reported during exposure to a ground-based spaceflight analog. Considering that CSF and glymphatic flow are hypothesized to be propelled by arterial pulsations, it is unknown whether a change in perfusion would impact these CSF compartments. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relationship among changes in cerebral perfusion, ventricular volume, and perivascular space volume before, during, and after a spaceflight analog. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eleven healthy participants underwent 30 days of bed rest at 6° head-down tilt with 0.5% atmospheric CO2 as a spaceflight analog. For each participant, 6 MR imaging brain scans, including perfusion and anatomic-weighted T1 sequences, were obtained before, during, and after the analog period. Global perfusion, ventricular volume, and perivascular space volume time courses were constructed and evaluated with repeated measures ANOVAs. RESULTS: Global perfusion followed a divergent time trajectory from ventricular and perivascular space volume, with perfusion decreasing during the analog, whereas ventricular and perivascular space volume increased (P < .001). These patterns subsequently reversed during the 2-week recovery period. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of change in brain physiology observed in healthy participants suggest a relationship between cerebral perfusion and CSF homeostasis. Further study is warranted to determine whether a causal relationship exists and whether similar neurophysiologic responses occur during spaceflight.

Barriers and facilitators to conducting radiotherapy clinical trials: Findings from a UK survey.

INTRODUCTION: As an essential component of service delivery, radiotherapy clinical trials were championed within the NHS England service specifications. A call for a 15% increase in research and clinical trial activity, alongside a demand for equity of access for patients with cancer subsequently ensued. National understanding of current radiotherapy clinical trials operational practices is absent, but essential to help establish the current provision required to support the development of a strategic plan for implementation of NHS England's specifications. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was developed by a multi-disciplinary team and distributed to therapeutic radiography clinical trial leads across the UK to ascertain the current provision of radiotherapy clinical trials only, including workforce resources and the trials management processes to establish a benchmark and identify potential barriers, enablers, and opportunities to increase access to clinical trials. RESULTS: Thirty-two complete responses were obtained equating to 49% of the total UK NHS departments and 74% of those departments invited. Four key findings were identified: 1) research strategy and systems, 2) participation and activity in radiotherapy clinical trials, 3) access to clinical trials at alternative departments and 4) facilitators & barriers. Overarchingly a lack of radiotherapy clinical trials strategy or supported processes were apparent across the UK, aggravating existing barriers to trial activity. CONCLUSION: It is essential for radiotherapy clinical trials to be embedded in to departmental and Trust strategy, this will help to ensure the processes and resources required for trial delivery are not only in place, but also recognised as imperative and important for patients with cancer as radiotherapy treatment delivery. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Failure to address the barriers or build upon the facilitators may result in UK radiotherapy departments facing challenges in achieving the 15% increase in radiotherapy clinical trial activity.

Pattern of upper limb amputation associated with lower limb amputation: the UK military experience from Iraq and Afghanistan.

INTRODUCTION: The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan resulted in large numbers of personnel sustaining extremity injuries. In the context of polytrauma, partial hand amputation is often unrecorded. The aim of this work was to quantify the burden of upper limb (UL) amputation at any level occurring concurrently with a major (ankle and proximal) lower limb (LL) amputation. Knowledge of this cohort could aid in prosthetic modification to further improve quality of life outcomes in a population with dexterity loss. METHOD: A trauma database search was undertaken for all UK military LL amputees from the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. A manual search method was employed to identify from the major LL amputees those who had a concurrent UL amputation at any level (including isolated finger amputation). Demographics, level of amputation, and injury profile data were recorded. RESULTS: Sixty-eight individuals were identified; the most prevalent population was bilateral LL with a unilateral UL amputation (60%). Most UL amputations were partial hand (75%). The was no statistically significant difference between left or right side (p=0.13). On the left side, correlation was found between amputation of the thumb and third digit (rho=0.34; p=0.005) not seen on the right. CONCLUSION: We have determined the rate of UL amputation at any level, in combination with LL amputation as a result of blast injury. Knowledge of these combinations enables further research to support anecdotal evidence that there is a need for tailored prosthetics in the context of potential dexterity loss making donning and doffing problematic.

Prenatal exome sequencing and impact on perinatal outcome: cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: First, to determine the uptake of prenatal exome sequencing (pES) and the diagnostic yield of pathogenic (causative) variants in a UK tertiary fetal medicine unit following the introduction of the NHS England Rapid Exome Sequencing Service for fetal anomalies testing (R21 pathway). Second, to identify how the decision to proceed with pES and identification of a causative variant affect perinatal outcomes, specifically late termination of pregnancy (TOP) at or beyond 22 weeks' gestation. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of anomalous fetuses referred to the Liverpool Women's Hospital Fetal Medicine Unit between 1 March 2021 and 28 February 2022. pES was performed as part of the R21 pathway. Trio exome sequencing was performed using an Illumina next-generation sequencing platform assessing coding and splice regions of a panel of 974 prenatally relevant genes and 231 expert reviewed genes. Data on demographics, phenotype, pES result and perinatal outcome were extracted and compared. Descriptive statistics and the χ-square or Fisher's exact test were performed using IBM SPSS version 28.0.1.0. RESULTS: In total, 72 cases were identified and two-thirds of eligible women (n = 48) consented to trio pES. pES was not feasible in one case owing to a low DNA yield and, therefore, was performed in 47 cases. In one-third of cases (n = 24), pES was not proposed or agreed. In 58.3% (14/24) of these cases, this was because invasive testing was declined and, in 41.7% (10/24) of cases, women opted for testing and underwent chromosomal microarray analysis only. The diagnostic yield of pES was 23.4% (11/47). There was no overall difference in the proportion of women who decided to have late TOP in the group in which pES was agreed compared with the group in which pES was not proposed or agreed (25.0% (12/48) vs 25.0% (6/24); P = 1.0). However, the decision to have late TOP was significantly more frequent when a causative variant was detected compared with when pES was uninformative (63.6% (7/11) vs 13.9% (5/36); P < 0.0009). The median turnaround time for results was longer in cases in which a causative variant was identified than in those in which pES was uninformative (22 days (interquartile range (IQR), 19-34) days vs 14 days (IQR, 10-15 days); P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the potential impact of identification of a causative variant by pES on decision to have late TOP. As the R21 pathway continues to evolve, we urge clinicians and policymakers to consider introducing earlier screening for anomalies, developing robust guidance for late TOP and ensuring optimized support for couples. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Variation in blubber cortisol levels in a recovering humpback whale population inhabiting a rapidly changing environment.

Glucocorticoids are regularly used as biomarkers of relative health for individuals and populations. Around the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), baleen whales have and continue to experience threats, including commercial harvest, prey limitations and habitat change driven by rapid warming, and increased human presence via ecotourism. Here, we measured demographic variation and differences across the foraging season in blubber cortisol levels of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) over two years around the WAP. Cortisol concentrations were determined from 305 biopsy samples of unique individuals. We found no significant difference in the cortisol concentration between male and female whales. However, we observed significant differences across demographic groups of females and a significant decrease in the population across the feeding season. We also assessed whether COVID-19-related reductions in tourism in 2021 along the WAP correlated with lower cortisol levels across the population. The decline in vessel presence in 2021 was associated with a significant decrease in humpback whale blubber cortisol concentrations at the population level. Our findings provide critical contextual data on how these hormones vary naturally in a population over time, show direct associations between cortisol levels and human presence, and will enable comparisons among species experiencing different levels of human disturbance.

The impact of prevention-effective PrEP use on HIV incidence: a mathematical modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Models that project the impact and cost-effectiveness of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) must specify how PrEP use aligns with HIV exposure. We hypothesized that varying PrEP use according to individual-level partnership dynamics rather than prioritization to population subgroups based on average risk will result in larger incidence reductions and greater efficiency. METHODS: We used an individual-based network transmission model calibrated to HIV dynamics in Eswatini to simulate PrEP use among individuals ages 15-34 between 2022 and 2031 under two paradigms of PrEP delivery: "Risk Group" and "Partnership." In the "Risk Group" paradigm, we varied PrEP coverage by risk groups (low, medium and high) defined by average partnership frequency and concurrency. In the "Partnership" paradigm, all individuals are potentially eligible for PrEP, but we assumed use occurs only during partnerships and varied prioritization by partner HIV status (no prioritization to high prioritization with HIV-positive partners). We calculated person-time on PrEP and incidence relative to a no PrEP scenario and estimated efficiency as the person-years of PrEP needed to avert one additional infection (NNT). RESULTS: In the Risk Group paradigm, restricting PrEP to the high-risk group was the most efficient (NNT = 17), but the number of infections averted was limited by the small size of the high-risk group. Expanding PrEP use to all risk groups averted up to three times more infections but with lower efficiency (NNT = 202). PrEP use under the Partnership paradigm was 2-6 times more efficient (NNT = 33-102) than the Risk Group paradigm with all groups eligible for PrEP. A 33% reduction in incidence among 15- to 34-year-olds was achieved at 46% (95% CI: 39-52%) PrEP coverage in the Risk Group paradigm and 6% (95% CI: 5-7%) to 17% (95% CI: 14-20%) in the Partnership paradigm. CONCLUSIONS: Modelling PrEP use based on risk groups resulted in a sharp trade-off between PrEP efficiency and impact, whereas PrEP use predicated on partnerships resulted in much higher efficiency for widespread PrEP availability. Model estimates of PrEP impact and cost-effectiveness in generalized epidemics are strongly influenced by assumptions about how PrEP use aligns with individual-level HIV exposure heterogeneity.

Coronavirus disease 2019 subphenotypes and differential treatment response to convalescent plasma in critically ill adults: secondary analyses of a randomized clinical trial.

PURPOSE: Benefit from convalescent plasma therapy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been inconsistent in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) involving critically ill patients. As COVID-19 patients are immunologically heterogeneous, we hypothesized that immunologically similar COVID-19 subphenotypes may differ in their treatment responses to convalescent plasma and explain inconsistent findings between RCTs . METHODS: We tested this hypothesis in a substudy involving 1239 patients, by measuring 26 biomarkers (cytokines, chemokines, endothelial biomarkers) within the randomized, embedded, multifactorial, adaptive platform trial for community-acquired pneumonia (REMAP-CAP) that assigned 2097 critically ill COVID-19 patients to either high-titer convalescent plasma or usual care. Primary outcome was organ support free days at 21 days (OSFD-21) . RESULTS: Unsupervised analyses identified three subphenotypes/endotypes. In contrast to the more homogeneous subphenotype-2 (N = 128 patients, 10.3%; with elevated type i and type ii effector immune responses) and subphenotype-3 (N = 241, 19.5%; with exaggerated inflammation), the subphenotype-1 had variable biomarker patterns (N = 870 patients, 70.2%). Subphenotypes-2, and -3 had worse outcomes, and subphenotype-1 had better outcomes with convalescent plasma therapy compared with usual care (median (IQR). OSFD-21 in convalescent plasma vs usual care was 0 (- 1, 21) vs 10 (- 1, to 21) in subphenotype-2; 1.5 (- 1, 21) vs 12 (- 1, to 21) in suphenotype-3, and 0 (- 1, 21) vs 0 (- 1, to 21) in subphenotype-1 (test for between-subphenotype differences in treatment effects p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: We reported three COVID-19 subphenotypes, among critically ill adults, with differential treatment effects to ABO-compatible convalescent plasma therapy. Differences in subphenotype prevalence between RCT populations probably explain inconsistent results with COVID-19 immunotherapies.

The role of serotonin neurotransmission in rapid antidepressant actions.

RATIONALE: Ketamine has rapid antidepressant effects that represent a significant advance in treating depression, but its poor safety and tolerability limit its clinical utility. Accreting evidence suggests that serotonergic neurotransmission participates in the rapid antidepressant effects of ketamine and hallucinogens. Thus, understanding how serotonin contributes to these effects may allow identification of novel rapid antidepressant mechanisms with improved tolerability. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this paper is to understand how serotonergic mechanisms participate in rapid antidepressant mechanisms. METHODS: We review the relevance of serotonergic neurotransmission for rapid antidepressant effects and evaluate the role of 5-HT1A, 5-HT1B, 5-HT2A, and 5-HT4 receptors in synaptic plasticity, BDNF signaling, and GSK-3ß activity. Subsequently, we develop hypotheses on the relationship of these receptor systems to rapid antidepressant effects. RESULTS: We found that 5-HT1A and 5-HT1B receptors may participate in ketamine's rapid antidepressant mechanisms, while agonists at 5-HT2A and 5-HT4 receptors may independently behave as rapid antidepressants. 5-HT1A, 5-HT2A, and 5-HT4 receptors increase synaptic plasticity in the cortex or hippocampus but do not consistently increase BDNF signaling. We found that 5-HT1A and 5-HT1B receptors may participate in rapid antidepressant mechanisms as a consequence of increased BDNF signaling, rather than a cause. 5-HT2A and 5-HT4 receptor agonists may increase BDNF signaling, but these relationships are tenuous and need more study. Finally, we found that ketamine and several serotonergic receptor systems may mechanistically converge on reduced GSK-3ß activity. CONCLUSIONS: We find it plausible that serotonergic neurotransmission participates in rapid antidepressant mechanisms by increasing synaptic plasticity, perhaps through GSK-3ß inhibition.

Predicting the Risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Acquisition in Rural South Africa Using Geospatial Data.

BACKGROUND: Accurate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk assessment can guide optimal HIV prevention. We evaluated the performance of risk prediction models incorporating geospatial measures. METHODS: We developed and validated HIV risk prediction models in a population-based cohort in South Africa. Individual-level covariates included demographic and sexual behavior measures, and geospatial covariates included community HIV prevalence and viral load estimates. We trained models on 2012-2015 data using LASSO Cox models and validated predictions in 2016-2019 data. We compared full models to simpler models restricted to only individual-level covariates or only age and geospatial covariates. We compared the spatial distribution of predicted risk to that of high incidence areas (≥ 3/100 person-years). RESULTS: Our analysis included 19 556 individuals contributing 44 871 person-years and 1308 seroconversions. Incidence among the highest predicted risk quintile using the full model was 6.6/100 person-years (women) and 2.8/100 person-years (men). Models using only age group and geospatial covariates had similar performance (women: AUROC = 0.65, men: AUROC = 0.71) to the full models (women: AUROC = 0.68, men: AUROC = 0.72). Geospatial models more accurately identified high incidence regions than individual-level models; 20% of the study area with the highest predicted risk accounted for 60% of the high incidence areas when using geospatial models but only 13% using models with only individual-level covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Geospatial models with no individual measures other than age group predicted HIV risk nearly as well as models that included detailed behavioral data. Geospatial models may help guide HIV prevention efforts to individuals and geographic areas at highest risk.

Male factor infertility and placental pathology in singleton live births conceived with in vitro fertilization.

PURPOSE: We sought to determine whether pregnancies conceived in those with male factor infertility have unique placental pathology profiles compared to those undergoing infertility treatments for other indications. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of placental pathology from 464 live births conceived from autologous fresh IVF cycles at an academic fertility center from 2004 to 2017. Placental pathology was compared between live births arising from patients with male factor infertility alone and those with another infertility diagnosis. Placental outcomes were compared with parametric or non-parametric tests; logistic regression was performed to account for potential confounders. RESULTS: Compared to cycles performed for a non-male factor diagnosis, male factor infertility cycles had a higher mean paternal age (38.2 years vs. 36.5 years, p < 0.001), a higher female mean BMI (24.3 vs. 23.3 kg/m2, p = 0.01), and a lower day 3 follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level (6.8 vs. 7.3 IU/mL, p = 0.02). The mean numbers of embryos transferred, and day of transfer were similar between groups, and more cycles used ICSI in the male factor infertility group (90.6% vs. 22.5%, p < 0.001). Placental pathology in our adjusted model was similar between the male factor and non-male factor groups. In our unadjusted subgroup analysis, cycles for male factor using ICSI appeared to lead to more small placentas by weight compared to cycles performed with conventional insemination (45.8% < 10th percentile vs. 18.8%, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Male factor infertility is not associated with significantly different placental pathology compared to other infertility diagnoses.

Quantifying movement of multiple threatened species to inform adaptive management of environmental flows.

There is a growing need for water managers to refine and optimise environmental flow strategies (e-flows) to balance water requirements for humans and nature. With increasing demands for freshwater and consequent declines in biodiversity, managers are faced with the problem of how to adaptively manage e-flows for multiple stakeholders and species whose flow requirements may overlap or vary. This study assessed the effectiveness of a regulated e-flow release strategy from a dam, aimed at providing movement opportunities and facilitating reproductive processes for multiple threatened species. Movements of 24 Mary River cod (Maccullochella mariensis), 20 Australian lungfish (Neoceratodus forsteri) and 13 Mary River turtle (Elusor macrurus) were quantified using acoustic telemetry over a three-year period. The influence of regulated e-flow releases, season, river depth, water temperature and rainfall on animal movements was assessed using Generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs). Models showed that hydraulic connectivity provided by both natural flows and regulated e-flow releases facilitated movement of all three species between pool habitats, throughout the year. Mary River turtles made extensive use of regulated e-flow releases when moving between habitats, whereas Mary River cod and Australian lungfish required additional natural rises in river height above the regulated e-flows to trigger movements. Significant movement activity was also recorded for cod and turtles during the dry season (winter and spring), broadly coinciding with breeding periods for these species. The effectiveness of, and potential improvements to, current e-flow strategies to sustain key life-history requirements of these species is discussed. Findings suggest a revised e-flow strategy with relatively minor increases in the magnitude of e-flow releases throughout winter and spring, would be effective in providing movement opportunities and supporting reproductive success for all three species. This study demonstrates that by quantifying movement behaviour in an e-flow context, ecological risk assessment frameworks can then be used to assess and provide for critical life-history requirements of multiple species within the context of a highly regulated system under increasing water use demands.

Vaginal bacterial load in the second trimester is associated with early preterm birth recurrence: a nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between vaginal microbiome (VMB) composition and recurrent early spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB)/preterm prelabour rupture of membranes (PPROM). DESIGN: Nested case-control study. SETTING: UK tertiary referral hospital. SAMPLE: High-risk women with previous sPTB/PPROM <34+0 weeks' gestation who had a recurrence (n = 22) or delivered at ≥37+0 weeks without PPROM (n = 87). METHODS: Vaginal swabs collected between 15 and 22 weeks' gestation were analysed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and 16S quantitative PCR. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Recurrent early sPTB/PPROM. RESULTS: Of the 109 high-risk women, 28 had anaerobic vaginal dysbiosis, with the remainder dominated by lactobacilli (Lactobacillus iners 36/109, Lactobacillus crispatus 23/109, or other 22/109). VMB type and diversity were not associated with recurrence. Women with a recurrence, compared to those without, had a higher median vaginal bacterial load (8.64 versus 7.89 log10 cells/mcl, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% CI 1.01-3.56, P = 0.047) and estimated Lactobacillus concentration (8.59 versus 7.48 log10 cells/mcl, aOR 2.35, (95% CI 1.20-4.61, P = 0.013). A higher recurrence risk was associated with higher median bacterial loads for each VMB type after stratification, although statistical significance was reached only for L. iners domination (aOR 3.44, 95% CI 1.06-11.15, P = 0.040). Women with anaerobic dysbiosis or L. iners domination had a higher median vaginal bacterial load than women with a VMB dominated by L. crispatus or other lactobacilli (8.54, 7.96, 7.63, and 7.53 log10 cells/mcl, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Vaginal bacterial load is associated with early sPTB/PPROM recurrence. Domination by lactobacilli other than L. iners may protect women from developing high bacterial loads. Future PTB studies should quantify vaginal bacteria and yeasts. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Increased vaginal bacterial load in the second trimester may be associated with recurrent early spontaneous preterm birth.

Barriers to accessing preventive health care among African-born individuals in King County, Washington: A qualitative study involving key informants.

Studies of African immigrant health in the U.S. have traditionally focused on infectious diseases. However, the rising burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) indicates the increasing importance of general preventive health care. As part of a series of community health events designed for African-born individuals in King County, Washington, we administered key informant interviews (KIIs) with 16 health event participants, medical professionals, and community leaders to identify barriers and facilitators to use of preventive health care among African-born individuals. We used descriptive thematic analysis to organize barriers according to the socio-ecological model. Within the individual domain, KII participants identified lack of knowledge and awareness of preventive health benefits as barriers to engagement in care. Within the interpersonal domain, language and cultural differences frequently complicated relationships with health care providers. Within the societal and policy domains, healthcare costs, lack of insurance, and structural racism were also reported as major barriers. Participants identified community outreach with culturally competent and respectful providers as key elements of interventions to improve uptake. In conclusion, African immigrant communities face several barriers, ranging from individual to policy levels, to accessing health services, resulting in substantial unmet need for chronic disease prevention and treatment. Community-centered and -led care may help facilitate uptake and engagement in care.