Connectivity modelling identifies sources and sinks of coral recruitment within reef clusters.

Connectivity aids the recovery of populations following disturbances, such as coral bleaching and tropical cyclones. Coral larval connectivity is a function of physical connectivity and larval behaviour. In this study, we used OceanParcels, a particle tracking simulator, with 2D and 3D velocity outputs from a high resolution hydrodynamic-biogeochemical marine model (RECOM) to simulate the dispersal and settlement of larvae from broadcast spawning Acropora corals in the Moore Reef cluster, northern Great Barrier Reef, following the annual spawning events in 2015, 2016 and 2017. 3D velocity simulations showed 19.40-68.80% more links and sinks than those of 2D simulations. Although the patterns of connectivity among sites vary over days and years, coral larvae consistently dispersed from east to west in the cluster domain, with some sites consistently acting as sources or sinks for local larval recruitment. Results can inform coral reef intervention plans for climate change, such as the design of marine protected areas and the deployment of proposed interventions within reef clusters. For example, the wider benefits of interventions (e.g., deployment of heat adapted corals) may be optimised when deployed at locations that are a source of larvae to others within comparable habitats across the reef cluster.

The effect of catchment load reductions on water quality in the crown-of-thorn starfish outbreak initiation zone.

Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) population outbreaks contribute to coral cover decline on Indo-Pacific reefs. On the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), enhanced catchment nutrient loads are hypothesised to increase phytoplankton food for CoTS larvae in the outbreak initiation zone. This study examines whether catchment load reductions will improve water quality in this zone during the larval period. We defined the i) initiation zone's spatial extent; ii) larval stage's temporal extent; and iii) water quality thresholds related to larval food, from published information. We applied these to model simulations, developed to quantify the effect of catchment load reductions on GBR water quality (Baird et al., 2021), and found a consistently weak response of chlorophyll-a, total organic nitrogen and large zooplankton concentrations in the initiation zone. Model results indicate marine and atmospheric forcing are more likely to control the planktonic biomass in this zone, even during major flooding events purported to precede CoTS outbreaks.

Developing an effective marine eDNA monitoring: eDNA detection at pre-outbreak densities of corallivorous seastar (Acanthaster cf. solaris).

Outbreaks of the corallivorous Crown-of-Thorns Seastar (CoTS) Acanthaster cf. solaris contribute significantly to coral reef loss. Control of outbreaks is hampered because standard monitoring techniques do not detect outbreaks at early (low density) stages, thus preventing early intervention. We previously demonstrated that eDNA monitoring can detect CoTS at intermediate densities. Here, we test whether detection probability can be improved by (i) targeted site selection or collection at specific times and (ii) moving from an average eDNA copy number approach (based on the limit of quantification) to a presence/absence approach (based on the limit of detection). Using a dataset collected over three years and multiple reef sites, we demonstrated that adding water residence age, sea surface level and temperature into generalized linear models explained low amounts of variance of eDNA copy numbers. Site specific CoTS density, by contrast, was a significant predictor for eDNA copy numbers. Bayesian multi-scale occupancy modelling of the presence/absence data demonstrated that the probability of sample capture (θ) on most reefs with intermediate or high CoTS densities was >0.8. Thus, confirming CoTS presence on these reefs would only require 2-3 samples. Sample capture decreased with decreasing CoTS density. Collecting ten filters was sufficient to reliably (based on the lower 95 % Credibility Interval) detect CoTS below nominal outbreak levels (3 Ind. ha-1). Copy number-based estimates may be more relevant to quantify CoTS at higher densities. Although water residence age did contribute little to our models, sites with higher residence times may serve as sentinel sites accumulating eDNA. The approach based on presence or absence of eDNA facilitates eDNA monitoring to detect CoTS densities below outbreak thresholds and we continue to further develop this method for quantification.

A spatial analysis of seagrass habitat and community diversity in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area.

The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) in north eastern Australia spans 2500 km of coastline and covers an area of ~ 350,000 km2. It includes one of the world's largest seagrass resources. To provide a foundation to monitor, establish trends and manage the protection of seagrass meadows in the GBRWHA we quantified potential seagrass community extent using six random forest models that include environmental data and seagrass sampling history. We identified 88,331 km2 of potential seagrass habitat in intertidal and subtidal areas: 1111 km2 in estuaries, 16,276 km2 in coastal areas, and 70,934 km2 in reef areas. Thirty-six seagrass community types were defined by species assemblages within these habitat types using multivariate regression tree models. We show that the structure, location and distribution of the seagrass communities is the result of complex environmental interactions. These environmental conditions include depth, tidal exposure, latitude, current speed, benthic light, proportion of mud in the sediment, water type, water temperature, salinity, and wind speed. Our analysis will underpin spatial planning, can be used in the design of monitoring programs to represent the diversity of seagrass communities and will facilitate our understanding of environmental risk to these habitats.

A benthic light index of water quality in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

Good water quality is essential to the health of marine ecosystems, yet current metrics used to track water quality in the Great Barrier Reef are not strongly tied to ecological outcomes. There is a need for a better water quality index (WQI). Benthic irradiance, the amount of light reaching the seafloor, is critical for coral and seagrass health and is strongly affected by water quality. It therefore represents a strong candidate for use as a water quality indicator. Here, we introduce a new index based on remote sensing benthic light (bPAR) from ocean color. Resulting bPAR index timeseries, based on the extent to which the observed bPAR fell short of the locally- and seasonally-specific optimum, showed strong spatial and temporal variability, which was consistent with the dynamics that govern changes in water clarity in the Great Barrier Reef. Our new index is ecologically relevant, responsive to changes in light availability and provides a robust metric that may complement current Great Barrier Reef water quality metrics.

Responses of marine ecosystems to climate change impacts and their treatment in biogeochemical ecosystem models.

To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and the effectiveness of intervention and mitigation strategies, we need reliable marine ecosystem response models such as biogeochemical models that reproduce climate change effects. We reviewed marine ecosystem parameters and processes that are modified by climate change and examined their representations in biogeochemical ecosystem models. The interactions among important aspects of marine ecosystem modelling are not often considered due to complexity: these include the use of multiple IPCC scenarios, ensemble modelling approach, independent calibration datasets, the consideration of changes in cloud cover, ocean currents, wind speed, sea-level rise, storm frequency, storm intensity, and the incorporation of species adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Including our recommendations in future marine modelling studies could help improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

Model for deriving benthic irradiance in the Great Barrier Reef from MODIS satellite imagery: erratum.

Corrections for equations in our recently published paper [Opt. Express27, A1350 (2019)] are presented.

Model for deriving benthic irradiance in the Great Barrier Reef from MODIS satellite imagery.

We demonstrate a simple, spectrally resolved ocean color remote sensing model to estimate benthic photosynthetically active radiation (bPAR) for the waters of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. For coastal marine environments and coral reefs, the underwater light field is critical to ecosystem health, but data on bPAR rarely exist at ecologically relevant spatio-temporal scales. The bPAR model presented here is based on Lambert-Beer's Law and uses: (i) sea surface values of the downwelling solar irradiance, Es(λ); (ii) high-resolution seafloor bathymetry data; and (iii) spectral estimates of the diffuse attenuation coefficient, Kd(λ), calculated from GBR-specific spectral inherent optical properties (IOPs). We first derive estimates of instantaneous bPAR. Assuming clear skies, these instantaneous values were then used to obtain daily integrated benthic PAR values. Matchup comparisons between concurrent satellite-derived bPAR and in situ values recorded at four optically varying test sites indicated strong agreement, small bias, and low mean absolute error. Overall, the matchup results suggest that our benthic irradiance model was robust to spatial variation in optical properties, typical of complex shallow coastal waters such as the GBR. We demonstrated the bPAR model for a small test region in the central GBR, with the results revealing strong patterns of temporal variability. The model will provide baseline datasets to assess changes in bPAR and its external drivers and may form the basis for a future GBR water-quality index. This model may also be applicable to other coastal waters for which spectral IOP and high-resolution bathymetry data exist.

A framework for evaluating food-web responses to hydrological manipulations in riverine systems.

Environmental flows are used to restore elements of the hydrological regime altered by human use of water. One of the primary justifications and purposes for environmental flows is the maintenance of target species populations but, paradoxically, there has been little emphasis on incorporating the food-web and trophic dynamics that determine population-level responses into the monitoring and evaluation of environmental flow programs. We develop a generic framework for incorporating trophic dynamics into monitoring programs to identify the food-web linkages between hydrological regimes and population-level objectives of environmental flows. These linkages form the basis for objective setting, ecological targets and indicator selection that are necessary for planning monitoring programs with a rigorous scientific basis. Because there are multiple facets of trophic dynamics that influence energy production and transfer through food webs, the specific objectives of environmental flows need to be defined during the development of monitoring programs. A multitude of analytical methods exist that each quantify distinct aspects of food webs (e.g. energy production, prey selection, energy assimilation), but no single method can provide a basis for holistic understanding of food webs. Our paper critiques a range of analytical methods for quantifying attributes of food webs to inform the setting, monitoring and evaluation of trophic outcomes of environmental flows and advance the conceptual understanding of trophic dynamics in river-floodplain systems.

Modelling food-web mediated effects of hydrological variability and environmental flows.

Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points.

Level of agreement between three-dimensional volumetric ultrasound and real-time conventional ultrasound in the assessment of synovitis, tenosynovitis and erosions in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

The aim of the study was to assess agreement between three-dimensional volumetric ultrasound (3D US) performed by inexperienced staff and real-time conventional ultrasound (2D US) performed by experienced rheumatologists in detecting and scoring rheumatoid arthritis (RA) lesions. Thirty-one RA patients underwent examination of seven joints by 2D and 3D US for synovitis and tenosynovitis in B and PD modes and erosions in B mode. A global score for synovitis and global counts for synovitis, tenosynovitis and erosions were also calculated for every patient. Agreement between 2D and 3D US was analysed for counts and scores at the patient level with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and for counts at the joint level with Cohen's kappa coefficient. B-mode synovitis was detected at a median of five joints in each patient, frequently in wrists and hand joints but less frequently in foot joints. PD-mode synovitis, tenosynovitis and erosions were detected less frequently. All ICCs for agreement between 2D and 3D US findings were significant. All kappa coefficients were significant for B- and PD-mode synovitis and for erosions (except PIP3), while those for tenosynovitis were only significant for MCP2 (B and PD modes) and PIP2 (B mode). Although the 3D US volumes were acquired by inexperienced operators, agreement between 2D and 3D US was acceptable in detecting and scoring synovitis. A higher level of agreement was attained for patient-level global scores and counts than for individual joints.

The exposure of the Great Barrier Reef to ocean acidification.

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is founded on reef-building corals. Corals build their exoskeleton with aragonite, but ocean acidification is lowering the aragonite saturation state of seawater (Ωa). The downscaling of ocean acidification projections from global to GBR scales requires the set of regional drivers controlling Ωa to be resolved. Here we use a regional coupled circulation-biogeochemical model and observations to estimate the Ωa experienced by the 3,581 reefs of the GBR, and to apportion the contributions of the hydrological cycle, regional hydrodynamics and metabolism on Ωa variability. We find more detail, and a greater range (1.43), than previously compiled coarse maps of Ωa of the region (0.4), or in observations (1.0). Most of the variability in Ωa is due to processes upstream of the reef in question. As a result, future decline in Ωa is likely to be steeper on the GBR than currently projected by the IPCC assessment report.

Organic carbon deliveries and their flow related dynamics in the Fitzroy estuary.

The Fitzroy estuary (Queensland, Australia) receives large, but highly episodic, river flows from a catchment (144,000 km(2)) which has undergone major land clearing. Large quantities of suspended sediments, and particulate and dissolved organic carbon are delivered. At peak flows, delta(13)C (-21.7+/-0.8 per thousand) and C/N (14.8+/-1.3) of the suspended solids indicate that the particulate organic material entering the estuary is principally soil organic carbon. At the lower beginning flows the particulate organic matter comes from in-stream producers (delta(13)C=-26 per thousand). The DOC load is about 10 times the POC load. Using the inverse method, budgets for POC and DOC were constructed for high and low flows. Under high flows, only a small portion of the POC and DOC load is lost in the estuary. Under dry season (low flow) conditions the estuary is a sink for DOC, but remains a source of POC to the coastal waters.