Exploring the Impact of Recycling on Demand-Supply Balance of Critical Materials in Green Transition: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Waste Input-Output Analysis.

Addressing our climate urgency requires various renewable and low-carbon technologies, which often contain critical materials that face potential supply risks. Existing studies on the critical material implications of green transition have used various methodologies, each with pros and cons in providing a system understanding. Here, we integrated the dynamic material flow analysis and input-output modeling principles in an integrated multi-regional waste input-output model to assess the demand-supply balance and recycling potentials for cobalt, lithium, neodymium, and dysprosium under various energy scenarios projected to 2050. We show that although all four critical materials are likely to face strong growth in annual demand (as high as a factor of 25 compared to the 2015 level), only cobalt has a higher cumulative demand by 2050 than the known reserves. Nevertheless, considering the sheer scale of demand increase and long lead time of opening or expanding new mines, recycling efforts are urgently needed to supplement primary supply toward global green transition. This model integration is proven useful and can be extended to more critical materials and green technologies.

A multi-disciplinary approach to estimate the medium-term impact of COVID-19 on transport and energy: A case study for Italy.

The aim of this paper is to estimate the potential impacts of different COVID-19 scenarios on the Italian energy sector through 2030, with a specific focus on transport and industry. The analysis takes a multi-disciplinary approach to properly consider the complex interactions of sectors across Italy. This approach includes the assessment of economic conditions using macroeconomic and input-output models, modelling the evolution of the energy system using an energy and transport model, and forecasting the reaction of travel demand and modal choice using econometric models and expert interviews. Results show that the effect of COVID-19 pandemic may lead to mid-term effects on energy consumption. The medium scenario, which assumes a stop of the emergency by the end of 2021, shows that energy-related emissions remain 10% lower than the baseline in the industry sector and 6% lower in the transport sector by 2030, when compared with a pre-COVID trend. Policy recommendations to support a green recovery are discussed in light of the results.